How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

 

Russia manipulates the concepts of "fascism" and "Nazism" in the same way as the Soviet Union did in its time

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's a chuckle for a Sunday.  It is from last night's Saturday Night Live host monologue by Dave Chappelle.  I'm posting it here because it's funny, but also it shows how Ukraine's ability to fight is perceived in the US.  Yet another example of how Ukraine and its allies have achieved a decisive victory in the information war against Russia:

Steve

P.S.  the whole monologue was hilarious

Can’t “like”, but I do! Stealable line that should come in handy:

”I don’t want to say anything bad about (a certain Senate Candidate) because he is black. But, um… -pause-…He is observably stupid.” Easily adaptable to a number of Russian officials of all sorts.

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Our friends at Hormadske have done it again:

Steve

This why they fight! 

(not because the USA is tricking them into a fool’s errand)

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Can’t “like”, but I do! Stealable line that should come in handy:

”I don’t want to say anything bad about (a certain Senate Candidate) because he is black. But, um… -pause-…He is observably stupid.” Easily adaptable to a number of Russian officials of all sorts.

"Observably stupid" may just go into my regular vernacular!

I really lost it when he said that Ukraine killed 10,000 Russians by using household items because they didn't have any weapons yet   This is akin to our long ago jokes about Finns knocking out Russian tanks with toothpicks during the Winter War.  In one joke you build up the lore of one side (Ukrainians and Finns) for their determination and creativity in defending their homeland, and at the same time tear down Russia (sorry, Soviet Union and Russia) for getting bested by an inferior armed force.  Works for me!

Steve

[MSBoxer]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is akin to our long ago jokes about Finns knocking out Russian tanks with toothpicks during the Winter War.

I remember it as pinecones, but I am getting old and the memory is not what it used to be.

[JonS]

18 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

I remember it as pinecones

That's for anti-tank work. Toothpicks are for hand-to-hand.

[Battlefront.com]

Some GoPro footage from May 23rd in the Kharkiv area.  This is footage from an American with the legion.  It gives a very good idea of the terrain and the problems recon units face because they are less likely to know the situation around them.  At one point there is mention that their other team got into a firefight with Ukrainians for a bit before they realized what was going on.  Fortunately nobody was hurt.  Lots of other little details that are interesting, especially discussion of a drone buzzing them early in the mission and Russian artillery hitting their departure point 10 minutes after they left.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

So, if you've not got anything in your stomach to toss up, here's our buddy Scott Ritter talking about the fall of Kherson with Judge Napolitano.  Quite a pair these two make!  Anyway, Ritter says this was a Russian victory.  I kid you not.  And when asked by the Judge (who is now apparently a military expert) about if the Russians might blow the damn, Ritter says it won't matter because all it will do is kill civilians and the Ukrainian government doesn't care about them.  And that was all I could take before signing off:)

Well, I skipped ahead a little to see what other tripe was in there.  According to him, the Ukrainians are getting slaughtered in the north and Russia is having stunning success in Donetsk and are about to "roll up" the Ukrainian defenses.  He said taking of Bakhmut is in the final stages and the Russians are about to bring in 200,000 fully equipped and trained forces that Ukraine won't be able to do deal with it.  He also said that Russia has "unraveled" Ukraine's new air defenses.  I hope he gets paid in USD instead of Rubles when his checks come in.

The comments on the video are also illustrative of why these two numbnuts keep flapping their useless gums... there's people out there that believe this crap!  Even after 9 months of this war, people still think Ukraine is a bunch of Nazis, the Russians are strategic geniuses (one said that Kyiv was a fixing operation, because if Russia wanted it they'd have it already), and Scott Ritter knows what he is talking about.

Uhboy.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

Biden Admin cracking down on a "network" working to get Russia high tech stuff that's been sanctioned.  About time.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3733788-yellen-us-to-sanction-network-supplying-russia-with-military-tech/

Steve

[JonS]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ritter says [Kherson] was a Russian victory

I'm not going to watch it, so I assume he was using the Dunkirk Gambit? I.e., this could - and probably should - have been WAY worse, but it wasn't, therefore ... victory!

Edited November 14, 2022 by JonS

[Seminole]

11 hours ago, danfrodo said:

So UKR BMP charges trench defense network w one squad.  RU has excellent positions + outnumbers UKR team.  And the RU forces ran away?  This should have been a suicide charge for the UKR team?  Unbelievable reckless courage that succeeded due to utter RU incompetence/lack of morale as far as I can tell.  None of us would ever do this in CMBS or CMCW.  Not this close. 

Remember, you’re seeing the battlefield for a minute or two, through a straw.   I noticed smoke in the field on their left flank. 

Most interesting thing to me is that it only appears one Russian made a defense (the grenade tosser) with one more person providing some suppressing fire from the other side of the drain.
The Russians gathered to bug out, not fight.  Green mobiks?  Only two guys provided covering fire while they ran, and it appeared that the runners were drawing more fire from farther ‘south’ on their right flank.  

Definitely need tank riders in CMBS!

Do we know at what level on the battlefield command is seeing video like this?  Do we know if a captain/major/colonel is seeing this action and trying to direct response?  Or is that more Hollywood/NATO than we should expect Ukraine to be operating?

 

 

 

[Seminole]

3 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

This why they fight! 

(not because the USA is tricking them into a fool’s errand)

Putin would be the one tricked into a fool’s errand.  

[danfrodo]

23 minutes ago, JonS said:

I'm not going to watch it, so I assume he was using the Dunkirk Gambit? I.e., this could - and probably should - have been WAY worse, but it wasn't, therefore ... victory!

Didn't that Churchill guy classify Dunkirk as a defeat?  I recall he said something like we don't win by evacuations or some such.  But Dunkirk was on some level quite a victory, relative to what could've/should've happened.  ~335k men that would come back to fight later. 

Kherson is nothing like Dunkirk.  It's a disaster for Putin.   sure it could've been a bigger one.  But it was only a disaster at all because he kept pushing more stuff into the pocket.  He could've pulled out a few months ago, saying the territory was not worth holding, taking the smaller PR hit.  Instead he tells everyone it's Russia Forever then has to slink away in the night just weeks later, losing a mountain of valuable gear in the process.  We'll be mocking this for decades.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

I'm not going to watch it,

Smart move!  That's 10 minutes of my life sacrificed for the greater good, no point in you losing 10 of yours.

2 hours ago, JonS said:

so I assume he was using the Dunkirk Gambit? I.e., this could - and probably should - have been WAY worse, but it wasn't, therefore ... victory!

No, it's worse than that. 

Ritter seems to think Ukraine has lost 10,000 to Russia's 1,200 and that Russia withdrew simply because it was too difficult to supply the ammo needed to kill another 10,000.  Therefore, Ukraine got back a useless bit of terrain at the cost of ruining its shoddy army, while the glorious Red Army disengaged intact and in high spirits, but low on bullets.  Now Russia will simply crush Ukraine elsewhere, like in Luhansk and Donetsk where the glorious Russian forces have been performing so well.

Where on Earth he got these casualty numbers from, I have no idea.  But since Ritter is either crazy or gets his paychecks from the Kremlin, his sources likely didn't come from this Earth anyway.  His Russian wife probably has nothing to do with this at all

I'm going on this rant just as a reminder that the West's nutjobs get airtime and followers despite having unfettered access to accurate information, including that the people they are listening to aren't reliable.  Russians don't have some sort of unique claim to this sort of thing, that's for sure.

Steve

[Yet]

8 hours ago, Sojourner said:

the attack on Kinburn was significant in that it demonstrated that the French and British fleets had developed effective amphibious capabilities and had technological advantages that gave them a decisive edge over their Russian opponents.The destruction of Kinburn's coastal fortifications completed the Anglo-French naval campaign in the Black Sea; the Russians no longer had any meaningful forces left to oppose them at sea.

 

Oh, wait, that was 1855.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kinburn_(1855)

replace french with polish and you seem to be up-to-date.

[Calamine Waffles]

This is probably the funniest Russian headline to come out of the war so far for me
 

Quote

Mercenaries in Ukraine use crisis as safari to hunt Russians — ambassador to US

https://tass.com/politics/1535165
 

[Yet]

Given that orcs have tusks it doesnt seem all too far fetched. 

[Haiduk]

UKR MoD officially issued a video of RIBs, which I posted above.

Today a new video appeared with RIBs, approaching to some shore - Kinburn?

On other hand WarGonzo wrote that Aleksandr Boroday, deputy of Duma and chief of Donbas Volunteer Union has communicated with his BARS volunteer batalion "Kherson", which deployed on Kinburn peninsula and the battalion reported that they don't wage a war because there are no enemy around. 

I don't heard about this battalion, but maybe this is Khersonian volunteer battalion named after Vasiliy Margelov, formed from local collaborants. But it was established only month ago, so I doubt it really combat ready now.

From Ukrainain insides, there was a TG message that seizing of Heroiske is not a true, "but we are there [on Kinburn] - kust keep silence and wait good news"

If you look a map you can see Kinburn peninsula and spit is very hard place with about 1000 lakes (mostly salt) and numerous small forests - remains of Hileya - forest country in lower stream of Borysphen (Dnipro), mentioned by Herodotus, thus SOF groups can "lost" in this terrain so enemy can't spot them  

Edited November 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

While Sunday sped by, this excellent summary came out. Sets up the rest of November from an operational POV and is just just written. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-13

From ISW, so many may have already seen it. Throwing a bone(s) to Putin? So much for any shred honor left in Moscow. 

They are far from operationally significant locations apart from Bakhmut and were launched during a difficult muddy time by inadequately prepared mobilized servicemen before Russian commanders in the area had amassed enough combat power for decisive operations.[14] Surovikin likely ordered them to start when they did as an earnest sign of his commitment to Putin.

Read further down and see that the UA must be chomping at the bit. 

[kraze]

54 minutes ago, Yet said:

Given that orcs have tusks it doesnt seem all too far fetched. 

Now now, teef are a valuable commodity here. And da bigga da boy - da more teef he 'as.

[NamEndedAllen]

As predicted! 
Washington Post

By Michael E. Miller, Anastacia Galouchka, Kamila Hrabchuk, Bryan Pietsch and Leo Sands November 14, 2022 at 2:01 a.m. PT 

KHERSON — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited this southern Ukrainian city recaptured just days ago by his country’s troops, saying in a speech at the central square that it was the “beginning of the end of the war.” Standing in front of a raucous crowd of several hundred people, Zelensky said that Western-supplied weapons had played a crucial role in recent battlefield victories, but that the victories were paid for in Ukrainian blood. Zelensky’s visit comes as the city assesses the damage and evidence of what he said included “hundreds” of war crimes left by months of Russian occupation. Basic services — including water and power supplies to the city’s postal system — are slowly being restored for Kherson’s residents as efforts begin to return life to normality.Meanwhile, heavy fighting continues in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm going on this rant just as a reminder that the West's nutjobs get airtime and followers despite having unfettered access to accurate information, including that the people they are listening to aren't reliable.

Steve, this guy and some of his Fellow Travelers are sooooo close to acting as foreign agents, and I’ll bet he hasn’t registered as one for Russia (yet). Another wrinkle is the fact that he and those of his ilk are arguably unable to distinguish between fantasy and reality.  Which can be an actionable diagnosis. Accordingly, I’ve begun to consider him and some of these other nut jobs you referred to be a danger to themselves and/or to others. Certainly if we were at war, this would be the case. But we are not, despite being so intimately involved in one. However…what if Russia were finally declared a terrorist state? As it most certainly is. The war crimes now being unearthed in Kherson pound another nail in that ugly coffin, and underscore the scope of terrorist crimes not seen since perhaps Pol Pots’ regime. Support for a terrorist state might be an easier row to hoe. Hopeless, I know. Freedom of speech. And yet… 

[Zeleban]

 

Quadcopter fire correction is not only used for heavy artillery

[Zeleban]

 

they have even made merch with a sledgehammer. I think this is the level of ISIS

[The_MonkeyKing]

seems Russians managed to execute pretty nice withdrawal from Kherson bridgehead:
source: https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine

quite minimal losses compared to the Kharkiv offensive. (and Kharkiv happened over larger time)

green Kherson retreat and orange final Kharkiv offensive