How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[RockinHarry]

6 minutes ago, chrisl said:

They could do the Kerch bridge footings with something like that.  There are already ocean drones that dive for samples- something similar could dislodge footings at their base.

Yep. Also considering some boats like these don´t need to be just dumb explosives moving over (or under) sea. I could well imagine UKR (and those who are associated with stuff) now can build much more nasty things into them. Technically advanced or not so much. See flying drones as example. High times for ingenuity and creative minds. So ATM I wouldn´t exclude anything. Same goes for russkies off course. Their iranian drone mash up could be one their own examples.

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, chrisl said:

They could do the Kerch bridge footings with something like that.  There are already ocean drones that dive for samples- something similar could dislodge footings at their base.

These drones look like they could carry a substantial charge, I'm sure that underwater explosion next to the bridge's pillars wouldn't do it any good. Perhaps we'll see a similar attempt at some point? 

Also, I could easily see these drones delivering mines to the harbor entrance... 

[Battlefront.com]

17 hours ago, JonS said:

At that level you're essentially talking artisanal production - old bearded guys lovingly rolling shell cases on their naked thighs to get the calibre [i]juuuust[/i] right, and soldering the circuit boards by hand over scarred old hardwood workbench under a flickering flourescent tube, which really doesn't scale to mass production in any sensible way.

I should ban you for putting that thought into my mind.  If you had described his thigh hairs as being the method for shaping the rounds I probably would have.

You, sir, have been warned!

Steve

[RockinHarry]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Another successful attack of Russian Lantset-2 loitering monition at UKR Buk M1 and close hit near M777 howitzer

 

Ouch! So don´t neglect good camo in the hinterland then. Reminds me of german gov got to send more Gepards and anything of use to UKR. And fast. Btw is there any known success rates of Gepards already?

[Blazing 88's]

Sorry if posted already but man this is good....

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Blazing 88's said:

Sorry if posted already but man this is good....

Deserves more than a I like, spit out some water laughing when I saw that, thx

[Battlefront.com]

19 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Just got back from an 8 hour blackout and found that my post offended someone. Well, I apologize for my stunt and I promise from now on, despite any troubles created for me by the Russians, I will not offend your feelings for the Russians.

I know this was from many pages ago, but I wanted to make sure you (and everybody else) understood the objections to posting things like Russians punching German women.  It was not offensive, it was irrelevant.  All societies have a problem with violence towards women.  Some, like Russia, are worse than others.  But it's not relevant to the war or even to Russia's character as a nation different from others.  Posting such videos, therefore, serves no practical purpose.

Note, this is the position I hold and yet I just posted Ukrainian cartoons of Russian mothers willingly throwing their sons into a meat grinder and superimposing Jabba the Hut over the whimpering Russian tourist after the Saky attack.  Humiliating Russians, abstractly or specifically, isn't something I personally have a problem with when it's directly related to the war.  They have worked very hard to lower my standards for the treatment of a nation's people, so rewarding them for that extreme effort seems justified.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Zeleban,

Thank you for sharing your personal stories.  I know everybody here appreciates them very much.

15 hours ago, Zeleban said:

War brings people together. In the face of danger, everyone strives to do something to help others. Pharmacies distributed medicines to everyone for free, shops distributed food, a lot of volunteers appeared ready to help others. From the second day of the war, I was constantly in the local clinic. We unloaded humanitarian aid and food, carried the wounded (a point was set up at the polyclinic to stabilize the wounded before sending them to a military hospital). The victims, whom the doctors could not save, had to be buried right in the courtyard of the clinic, as the road to the cemetery was shot through.

15 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Most of the wounded were civilians. I remember two cases in particular. In one, a man and a woman brought a dead child of 5 years old with a gunshot wound to the hospital. They tried to leave Bucha to the west, their car was fired upon by Russian soldiers. In the second case, a pregnant girl with a damaged spine was brought to the hospital. She and her husband were in their apartment when the shell hit their home. The husband died on the spot. she got a spinal injury. Unfortunately, as a result of this injury, her child also died. She lost her most loved people in one day.

These two things you wrote are examples of why there is so much support for Ukraine.  Watching the Ukrainian people pull together to deal with the murderous invasion is inspiring.  Actually, it is more than that but despite having 400,000+ words in English I can't think of anything that really fits what I sense most of us feel.  We are, in no small way, in awe of the Ukrainian willpower.

The old saying "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger" is not correct for this war.  I think it is more like 'what doesn't kill you makes you stronger, what does kill you makes you powerful".  A few of us in the West understood this after 2014, and knew that Russia would never survive an invasion because of it, yet I doubt any of us fully appreciated how correct this thinking was.  To paraphrase a famous movie quote, I thought Ukraine would fight to a 10, but you turned it up to 11.

Which reminds me, it's time for me to send a bunch more money to help with both the civilian and military needs of Ukrainians.  It's the least I can do for those forced into making this world safer for everybody.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Here is another assesment of today's atatcks, also as if from BSF HQ source. 

This source rejects sinking of landing craft or missile boat, which I posted above, but claimed military freighter was sunk. Also it claimed was hit fuel depot (but it was almost empty) and storages on the shore (probably due to flying drones attack). This source also claims about 4-7 KIA and 15-20 WIA on Russian ships. He told in better case repair of Admiaral Makarov will take 2-3 weeks, in worse case 2-3 months. 

The third source tells the attack was conducted by Ukrainain-developed USV with 1000-1200 km range, which can carry 75 kg of HE. Other guy of SOF on the eve of attack made a hint "Soon you will hear great "cotton" and posted a picture of pack a cigarettes named "Vega", so probably this USV has name "Vega". This half-submerged device reportedly was made from components of usual hydrocycle

 

Edited October 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, dan/california said:

The mobiks seem perfectly well aware how bleeped they are. Ukraine literally needs to do leaflets by drone with the surrender number and how too.

 

 

If you have to tell mobilized men that they are trained soldiers, chances are they know they aren't.

This is one of the most fascinating things for us Westerners to see.  These guys are not necessarily unwilling to fight for their warped and twisted ethno-imperialist state.  If Russia took the time to train them properly (by properly I mean prewar standards, not NATO standards) they might actually pose a problem for Ukraine.  Maybe, just maybe, to the point of stalemating the frontlines.  Instead, Russia throws them away and gains almost nothing from it.

Putin is, as they say, the master strategist.

Steve

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Что напоминает мне, что пришло время послать еще кучу денег, чтобы помочь как гражданским, так и военным нуждам украинцев. Это меньшее, что я могу сделать для тех, кто вынужден делать этот мир безопаснее для всех.

 

Thank you very much. All residents of Ukraine greatly appreciate both the material and moral support of countries from all over the world. It helps us a lot to overcome any difficulties.

[Haiduk]

Russia started to use super-long range air-to-air missiles R-37/R-37M. Theese misiles have claimed range up to 398 km (but more reliable is 300 km). R-37 can be launched from MiG-31BM heavy interceptor, R-37M - from Su-35S and Su-57. Missiles likely get initial targeting from A-50 AWACS

Allegedly already two UKR jets can be shot down with theese missiles. One of more probable victims - last shot down of Su-24M, which was damaged over Donbas and fell in Poltava oblast. Also likely was shot down one MiG-29 HARM carrier. One missile was spotetd over western Ukraine, but result unknown 

MiG-31 now often take off from territory of Belarus

R-37 in flight over westren Ukraine

 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, RockinHarry said:

 Btw is there any known success rates of Gepards already?

There's very little detailed information, other than they're apparently working well against drones and the Ukrainians are urgently asking for more ammo. A few days ago, there was a video from Odessa that apparently shows some Gepard fire in the night sky. 

Edited October 29, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[acrashb]

17 hours ago, sburke said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-campaigner-dies-during-shooting-161159196.html

After the war we'll find out if the range accident involved a bullet to the back of the head or something more credible. My money is on door number 1 - with reasonable safety precautions shooting at a range is safer than flying model aircraft.  Of course, Russian shooting range culture may differ from Canadian.

9 hours ago, poesel said:

I've been involved a bit in the making of a production line for artillery shells.

[...]

Thank you for the on-the-ground view into artillery production - really helpful.

I expect that the Russo-Ukraine war will be like the pandemic.  When it is done, our governments and populations will forget many valuable lessons-learned.  In this case, keep ammo next to the masks

3 hours ago, Huba said:

Video from the suicide drones that attacked Sevastopol today. Amazing footage:

Another threat for carrier groups to worry about.
 

Is it "are tanks dead" or is it "is anything large and expensive dead"? Because large things can be destroyed by small precision things at great distances.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 If you had described his thigh hairs as being the method for shaping the rounds I probably would have.

Sometimes it's like you don't know anything.  To avoid damage to and gas leaking by the driving bands, the thigh hairs are removed with a hedge trimmer

Edited October 29, 2022 by acrashb

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, RockinHarry said:

if these could sneak into Sevastopol harbor, they could´ve well sneaked to Cherson bridge as well.

Yes but the explosion was above the road. 

[Haiduk]

Short news from frontlines:

- UKR soldier in twitter told in Bakmut Wagner and LDPR mobiks are assaulting winery to retake it again

- Khodakovskiy claimed DPR and Russian troops launched offensive on Vuhledar direction and as if approached to Pavlivka village. He says the mud interfere to both sides. UKR side has struck advancing DPR troops with aviation. UKR source in twitter confirmed he has seen two Su-25 under MiG-29 cover, which returning bacjk from that direction. Other UKR TG source writes UKR Command has seen their preparations and conducted some counter measures. He told there are many "chmobiks" among Russian units

Edited October 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[cyrano01]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russia started to use super-long range air-to-air missiles R-37/R-37M. Theese misiles have claimed range up to 398 km (but more reliable is 300 km). R-37 can be launched from MiG-31BM heavy interceptor, R-37M - from Su-35S and Su-57. Missiles likely get initial targeting from A-50 AWACS

Allegedly already two UKR jets can be shot down with theese missiles. One of more probable victims - last shot down of Su-24M, which was damaged over Donbas and fell in Poltava oblast. Also likely was shot down one MiG-29 HARM carrier. One missile was spotetd over western Ukraine, but result unknown 

MiG-31 now often take off from territory of Belarus

R-37 in flight over westren Ukraine

 

 

Very interesting. That's a big old missile and I had been under the impression it was mainly designed for use against large, deep, high value targets like Tankers, AWACS (and other ISR assets) et al. The SU-24 and, particularly, the MiG 29 aren't obvious candidates. I guess, if this was the first observed use of these weapons it may be that they were unexpectd and the UKRAF pilots might need further to adjust hteir tactics to be (even) less co-operative targets.

[dan/california]

9 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

We interrupt our regularly scheduled program for this breaking news update. Which has very little to do with our regularly scheduled programming. Except…it is about the absolute underest of underdogs triumphing time after time. NO ONE GAVE THEM A CHANCE. Rather like a brave, unyielding country the world wrote off earlier this year. But tonight, they did it yet again..

HOUSTON — The nation rejoices this morning, because, these days, Jason Kelce is dead wrong:

Everyone likes us. And yes, we care.

The Fightin’ Phillies added another chapter to their fairy-tale season. They spotted the Astros a five-run lead through the first three innings, but, thanks to another episode of brilliant manipulation by rookie manager Rob Thomson and utter indifference to logic and expectation, roared all the way back for a 6-5 win Friday night.

An Okie struck the death blow

With the guile and perseverance that marks this as the most thrilling season in franchise history, the team that fired its manager on June 3, the team that needed 160 games to back into the postseason with the first No. 6 seed in baseball history, won Game 1 of a World Series they have no business being in. They won against the best team in baseball over the last six seasons, and they won it in that team’s cartoonish home stadium.

They won when J.T. Realmuto, the Oklahoman, made his Red River home folks prouder than ever, with a two-run double off Astros starter Justin Verlander to tie it at 5 in the fifth and a slicing, carrying, 3-2 solo homer off Luis Garcia to lead off the top of the 10th inning.

Leave it to the backstops.

Thomson was a catcher in his playing days. Realmuto’s the best catcher in baseball. Kelce surely would be a catcher if he didn’t play football.

This win, this night, was a wholesome elixir for a dying pastime. The Phillies have stolen home-field advantage for the fourth straight time this postseason, and, in Philly, 

that’s a helluva thing.

Thanks in part to the underdog run the Eagles went on in 2017, and thanks in part to the arrogant misdeeds of the Astros in the past, America is a nation whose World Series sympathies are directed on one franchise, and one franchise only. An extremely unscientific study — 100,000 geotagged tweets tracked by an online betting site — showed that only six of 50 states favored the Astros, who are in the Series for the fourth time in the last six seasons. They won in 2017, but, to the delight of citizens who dislike cheaters, they lost in 2019 and 2021.

The Phillies, with their rascal of a mascot, an equally motley and hairy roster, and their team anthem, remarkably, co-written by Robyn, are the darlings of baseball. The Astros, meanwhile, are the villains. They’re the Patriots of Major League Baseball: a well-built, well-run, talented team that cheated to win.

-Marcus Hayes, The Philadelphia Inquirer 

And before we return to the news of real life war, death and destruction, with sorrows piled upon sorrows for far too many souls, for far too long, here are the underdogs celebrating another victory in their march to winning the whole thing:

DANCING. ON. MY. OWN - Again. Just last week:

 

 Apologies for sharing this Underdog story, to date. They must win three more times against the most dominant team in the American League for years now, who have been heavily favored by everyone (except the Phillies). But they believe in themselves. In a small way, like that country now fighting for its life, and winning now against all odds. 

 

 

PS I promise not to do this again. Honest. Unless in the truly unlikely and bizarre event that they actually win the Series itself. 

 

 

 

.

 

Is BFC Elvis's liver going to make it to Christmas? This much winning might do the man in.

9 hours ago, poesel said:

I've been involved a bit in the making of a production line for artillery shells. The problem is that it is not only about the parts that make out the round, but also about the machinery for making those parts. There is quite a lot of complex machinery involved. Much of it is also specialized machinery that is not used somewhere else.

Even mothballed stuff breaks after a while. So you need replacements and your spare part package is not endless. After a while, you start to scrounge for stuff on eBay, and then you need to drag engineers out of the retirement homes because no one knows how to use that specific piece of tech anymore.

Of course, you could unpack this thing once a year and try to run it for a week. Fix the stuff that broke and pack it up again. But that is very expensive for something, that is most likely useless (unless it's priceless, as someone else put it nicely). Good luck explaining that to your taxpayers.

I guess that would be too big even for the US military budget.

First, you need an engineer who knows how to design that. And then you need to have your design certified. And prototyped. And tested. And signed off again. And then produced. And tested again.

Doable of course. But with a big price tag. Like the 100m€ for setting up a new production line for the SMArt 155 ammunition. Btw, the actual production for 10,000 rounds will cost another 800m€.

All of these are addressable, but all of them as you point out, they are expensive. The most obvious step is to Build the body of the shells so that the fancy electronics unplug in a simple way. Said electronics can be kept in far more careful storage. There is a vast literature on whisker problems. All the solutions are of course more expensive.

https://nepp.nasa.gov/whisker/background/index.htm#q6

https://cen.acs.org/articles/85/i29/Stopping-Tin-Whisker-Stalkers.html

"There's another way. Manufacturers can avoid pure tin altogether by plating components with materials that don't whisker, such as nickel-palladium-gold. But as the ingredients suggest, this is not the cheapest way to go."

But if it gets you a thirty year shelf life, instead of a ten year shelf life it might be worth it.

 

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Technical specialists of Main Inteligence Directorate have finished researching of captured Iranian UCAV Mohajer-6. It's turned out 3/4 of it components have US origins. Also were used components from Japan, China, Sweden, Austria and one component has... Ukrainian origin. Latter will be object of SBU investigation. All theese components are dual-purpose or civilian-purpose and can be freely purchased

 From 0:22 to 2:25 in Ukrainain

 

I am only oversimplifying a little when I say every smartphone is a guidance system in waiting. 

 https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/bizarre-theft-wave-targets-same-rotax-engines-used-in-iranian-drones

It also seems possible bordering on likely that Iran has an organized operation to steal the engines they use in these nasty medium sized pieces of good enough engineering.

 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

 

[Haiduk]

During capturing of Russian soldiers one of them wanted to become a hero and tried to threw grenade in UKR troopers. He was shot out, but explosion of grenade probably slightly wounded one UKR soldier

Video from closed twitter account through nitter

https://nitter.net/Milan8662/status/1586374956677402625#m

Edited October 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, cyrano01 said:

Very interesting. That's a big old missile and I had been under the impression it was mainly designed for use against large, deep, high value targets like Tankers, AWACS (and other ISR assets) et al. The SU-24 and, particularly, the MiG 29 aren't obvious candidates. I guess, if this was the first observed use of these weapons it may be that they were unexpectd and the UKRAF pilots might need further to adjust hteir tactics to be (even) less co-operative targets.

R-37 is new missile (maybe you confused it with older R-33?), which was adopted in 1997 and R-37M in 2014. They can attack a target, wich maneuvers up to 8g

Edited October 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

[cesmonkey]

Here are the details on the latest US package for Ukraine - $275 million:
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3203516/official-describes-dods-efforts-to-bolster-ukraines-defense/

 

Quote

• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. 
• 500 precision-guided 155 mm artillery rounds. 
• 2,000 155 mm rounds of remote anti-armor mine systems. 
• Over 1,300 anti-armor systems, including AT4 anti-tank weapons and shoulder-launched multipurpose assault weapons. 
• 125 Humvees. 
• Small arms with more than 2.75 million rounds. 
• Four satellite communications antennas to augment Ukraine's communications capabilities, which include Starlink. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Yes but the explosion was above the road. 

For sure the boats hand 0.000000% to do with the Kherson bridge attack that already happened.  I think (hope) he meant in the future.  Though, of course, we already knew of these suicide boats before so it's not a new thought.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Kadyrov admits to the casualties his TicTok Warriors suffered the missile strike we saw a few days ago.  Puts the deaths a little lower than Ukraine (23 vs 30), with over 50 wounded.  Of course I don't trust Kadyrov, but the numbers might actually be real.  Whatever the case is, clearly Ukraine's strike wasn't less effective than Ukraine claimed it to be:

https://news.yahoo.com/chechen-leader-23-chechen-soldiers-064058876.html

Steve