How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

It was a poor plan because it counted on rolling six sixes in one throw of the dice.

Yes, but on paper it looked great.  It had multiple layers -- assassination/treason, SOF & brute force.  I agree that in reality it was rolling sixes.  But for Putin he thought the only way he'd lose was to roll sixes.  He thought rolling 2-11 were victories.  

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

 

Here's a summary w maps.  One of them shows what Kinophile shared above.  What is that smell? -- I smelled something similar recently... oh it's what it smells like just before a front collapses.  UKR advancing in multiple spots along long front which hopefully will start to make more the line untenable or create panic in some sectors with the help of some clever UKR psyops.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/28/2131855/-Ukraine-update-Reports-of-advances-near-Svatove-vastly-undermanned-Russian-positions-in-Kherson

[A Canadian Cat]

The definition of delusional:

Quote

characterized by or holding idiosyncratic beliefs or impressions that are contradicted by reality or rational argument, typically as a symptom of mental disorder.

I make no comment about diagnosing anyone's mental state but everything else about this discussion seems to point to delusional thinking. My bold because that's the key point.

 

On 10/27/2022 at 10:45 AM, Battlefront.com said:

The plan was perfectly sound in relation to Russia's abilities and the goals asked of it.  If Ukraine had done as they expected the plan would likely have worked.  The flaw, therefore, was the totalitarian "yes man" system that allowed such a fundamental and consequential premise to be so poorly evaluated and/or dishonestly presented to Putin.  Nothing insane about it, just standard autocratic *** covering taken to an extreme.

OK that seems to make sense but its not in context. The issue is not that the plan was sound based on the assumptions the issue is those assumptions were not just wrong they were wilfully wrong.

As @The_Capt points out every step of the Russian planning process was based on easily verifiable lies / over-estimations of Russian capabilities / under-estimations of Ukrainian capabilities. If someone or a group take actions to misrepresent reality and ignore evidence presented to them they are behaving in a delusional way.

That is why I would call Putin's plan delusional. The issues is not "if assumptions for Plan A were right it would have worked" its that those assumptions were clearly wrong and they all should have know that; combined with no Plan B and no concepts of what to do to mitigate the situation if an assumption turned out to be wrong (a delusional thinker is often not able to consider being wrong as possible).

[akd]

T-90M gets Excalibured:

More tank plinking with Excalibur:

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by akd

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

T-90M gets Excalibured:

 

"Comrades!  High command has sent us a brand new high tech tank to bolster our defenses!  No way can the satanists drive us out now!".   then boom! -- Talk about a kick in the plums to local morale!  

[kevinkin]

"A very valuable Russian T-90MA MBT was destroyed by Ukrainian M982 Excalibur precision-guided artillery shell."

Carl Zeiss would enjoy watching those. 

[acrashb]

40 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Here's a summary w maps. 

[...]

www.dailykos.com

Outside of needing eye bleach because of the lack of your traditional warning, my key takeaway is this paragraph:
“Russian officers described companies in the Kherson Sector as consisting of between six and eight men each. Companies should deploy with around 100 personnel.”

One cannot manoeuvre a company with 8 men.  You can't even coordinate their efforts, because they aren't integrated into a larger whole.  If in fact companies are down that far, AFAIK the only solution is to fold the remaining men into an actual company-sized unit.

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

Sorry but let's not share this kind of stuff here. Those guys were no gentlemen, that's for sure and there is no excuse for hitting the woman. But she is also not innocent, her choice of words is quite provocative. Without any context the sole purpose of this video is obviously to vilify Russians. Replace Russian with any other nationality including Ukrainians and you will find something similar somewhere on the internet or life in one of the shadier establishments.

IMHO there are enough awful videos and pictures of the actual war and surrounding events that really speak for themselves. We don't need this kind of stuff.

I agree.  There's a segment of every society that simply sucks.  Putting videos of the Russians doesn't tell us anything we don't already know, just as putting up a video of German neo-Nazis or absolutely batpoop crazy American Q-Anon people doesn't tell us anything meaningful about those societies either.  Fringes are fringes.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, IanL said:

Yep, 100% save those images for the next time someone says "but my tank guns keeps getting hit and disabled, its a tank that shouldn't happen". We can answer with just that picture

Not only that, but it looks like that tank was hit with something like an .50cal M2, or as Elmar calls it, .50cal Kord   Lots of pretty big holes punched into the barrel and MG.

Steve

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Outside of needing eye bleach because of the lack of your traditional warning, my key takeaway is this paragraph:
“Russian officers described companies in the Kherson Sector as consisting of between six and eight men each. Companies should deploy with around 100 personnel.”

One cannot manoeuvre a company with 8 men.  You can't even coordinate their efforts, because they aren't integrated into a larger whole.  If in fact companies are down that far, AFAIK the only solution is to fold the remaining men into an actual company-sized unit.

 

This is a cope company for someone in Belgorod or Moscow to move around on a map, not a militarily useful entity.

 

https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2022/10/28/how-we-geolocated-a-photo-of-a-russian-missile-programming-team/

A great article on hardcore geolocation work.

[Baneman]

23 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Outside of needing eye bleach because of the lack of your traditional warning, my key takeaway is this paragraph:
“Russian officers described companies in the Kherson Sector as consisting of between six and eight men each. Companies should deploy with around 100 personnel.”

One cannot manoeuvre a company with 8 men.  You can't even coordinate their efforts, because they aren't integrated into a larger whole.  If in fact companies are down that far, AFAIK the only solution is to fold the remaining men into an actual company-sized unit.

 

6 to 8 men !

Fold them into a Platoon, never mind a Company !

[Beleg85]

Worth to watch if anybody is interested in tank stuff.

 

Also, there are reports Ukrainian army started to pierce the front near Svatove; hard to tell how reliable but they seem to master some of the hills sorrounding the town.

[danfrodo]

35 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

"A very valuable Russian T-90MA MBT was destroyed by Ukrainian M982 Excalibur precision-guided artillery shell."

Carl Zeiss would enjoy watching those. 

Russian propaganda will spin this the other way:  "A very valuable NATO M982 Excalibur precision-guided shell was destroyed by a Russian T-90MA MBT."  

[Huba]

This is from official RU MoD Telegram. Looks like mobilization is completed, 300K men target was reached without problems, 1/4th is already in Ukraine and rest is training. There are facilities being build, after initial problem everybody is receiving proper equipment, accomodation etc. Full success. No need to panic 

Quote

 The Minister of Defense reported to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on the completion of partial mobilization measures

. Comrade Supreme Commander-in-Chief!

Since September 21, the military commissariats, together with the executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, have been carrying out partial mobilization measures, within the framework of which it is planned to call up and send 300,000 citizens to the troops.

Large-scale work was launched in all regions of our country. The governors and all levels of executive power, from municipal to regional, provided enormous assistance and support.

In the course of partial mobilization, more than 1,300 representatives of executive authorities of various levels, over 27,000 entrepreneurs were called up and sent to the troops. 13 thousand citizens, without waiting for summonses, expressed a desire to fulfill their duty and were sent to the troops as volunteers. The average age of mobilized citizens was 35 years.

At the initial stage, there were problems with the supply, various types of allowances. Today these problems are solved. All those who arrived in the troops are provided with the prescribed types of allowances, uniforms, equipment, food according to the norms of contract servicemen.

Particular attention was paid to the training of those called up from the reserve at training centers and training grounds, where 218,000 people are currently improving their training as part of crews and crews.

After completing the training, 82,000 people were sent to the area of the special military operation, of which more than 41,000 operate as part of units. Those who participate in combat operations will receive the status of a combat veteran and a corresponding package of social benefits. The dispatch of citizens called for mobilization was completed today. Citizen notification has been discontinued. The task set by you - 300 thousand people - has been fulfilled. No additional tasks are planned. The military commissariats, as part of a special military operation, will continue to recruit troops only by accepting volunteers and candidates for military service under a contract.

The report is finished.

Imagine being Putin and getting only this kind of BS as reports from carrying out the tasks you assign...

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, IanL said:

I make no comment about diagnosing anyone's mental state but everything else about this discussion seems to point to delusional thinking. My bold because that's the key point.

In our view it sure is.  But we live in an open society where our leaders are, more or less, in touch with reality.  From what I've seen, I don't think that is a safe bet with Putin.  Lots of information, in fact, indicates the exact opposite.  Which is a bog standard feature of autocratic regimes and usually the main contributor to their demise.

Think about it this way.  You're the leader of Ianstan.  You've been doing the job for 20 years and you're lately you're more concerned about keeping your billions of looted treasure than you are anything else.  You're also increasingly aware that things, generally, aren't going so well.  To combat this you've purged most of the independent minded people over the years and surrounded yourself with people who are loyal, but not necessarily bright.  You become more and more reliant upon what they tell you because you don't use a computer and therefore don't have access to independent information without going through a filter.

Outside of your sphere the lackies that you've appointed run the government's various components.  You rely upon them to handle the details, which they do.  But since the lackies need to remain in your good favor, they tend to make sure they deliver good news instead of bad.  While you don't shoot messengers, you do sometimes have them tossed out of windows or put in jail.  There is reason to keep you pleased!

This sort of "please the Ian" doctrine goes down a few more layers because displeasure upstream means trouble downstream.  Which means the majority of people with authority are motivated to keep access to illicit funds, not to provide good management of their area of responsibility.

OK, so that's the reality of Ianstan's power structure.

President Ian has a particular fancy to take over some land that neighbors his realm.  He says to his top lackies, "I want this to happen.  What do you think?"  They of course say "yes, we can do that".  And from there everything that follows is deliberately intended to tell you want you want to hear.  Even when you ask questions or take a critical stance, the answer back to you is always going to be in support of your goals.  No matter what.

 

Does this make Putin delusional?  No, it makes him woefully uninformed.  That's not the same thing even if the effect is identical.  Why?  Because if Putin had been sat down and told the truth by someone he trusted MAYBE this war would not have happened.  But as far as we know this didn't happen.

In a sense Putin's presumption that he could create a government based on fear and corruption that would not lead him astray is where the real delusion is.  But that's what people exposed to unlimited power tend to do, which is why they more often than not fail in the end.

 

1 hour ago, IanL said:

OK that seems to make sense but its not in context. The issue is not that the plan was sound based on the assumptions the issue is those assumptions were not just wrong they were wilfully wrong.

As @The_Capt points out every step of the Russian planning process was based on easily verifiable lies / over-estimations of Russian capabilities / under-estimations of Ukrainian capabilities. If someone or a group take actions to misrepresent reality and ignore evidence presented to them they are behaving in a delusional way.

That is why I would call Putin's plan delusional. The issues is not "if assumptions for Plan A were right it would have worked" its that those assumptions were clearly wrong and they all should have know that; combined with no Plan B and no concepts of what to do to mitigate the situation if an assumption turned out to be wrong (a delusional thinker is often not able to consider being wrong as possible).

All true, though in context of what I said above it's more complicated than being able to write it off as "delusional".  It was a logical plan that came about rationally from a system that was deliberately created to perform its function for keeping Putin in power.  Delusion was a side effect of all of that, not the cause of it.

Here's another way of thinking about it.  Many experts focused on criticizing the Russian plan for its 5-6 points of advance.  They described this as folly and illogical, but they're only half correct.  It was folly, for sure, but it was logical in the context of what Putin wanted to achieve.  When viewed in that context the criticism of Putin's plan moves away from the 5-6 points of advance but to the assumption that the Ukrainians wouldn't fight back.

Why does this matter?  Because it shows that Russian operational planning wasn't as bad as people might think it is.  Which means that if the Russian planners are given a more realistic (i.e. non-delusional) set of objectives, they might very well achieve their goals.  I think we're sorta seeing this in Kherson.

To summarize... in the spirit of TheCapt's insistence that we don't get stuck in the Russia Sux™ mindset, we need to be careful about how we characterize Russia's abilities.  In my view the Russian plan was not deluded, the objectives that it was intended to achieve were.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Also, there are reports Ukrainian army started to pierce the front near Svatove; hard to tell how reliable but they seem to master some of the hills sorrounding the town.

We've been wondering how effective Russia has been in creating a new defensive line to stall out Ukraine until at least the winter campaign season starts.  Certainly they've recognized the danger and are, finally, putting an effort into shoring up Luhansk.  What we've been wondering about for some weeks now is if Russia is able to do this or not.  I think we're going to find out within a few days.

BTW, it was noted by many that Wagner's "Cope Pyramid" defensive line was along the Siverskyi Donets River, which seems to indicate that they've already written off everything north of it.  That includes Kreminna.

Steve

[acrashb]

Putin rules out nuclear strike on Ukraine (msn.com)

" We do not need a nuclear strike on Ukraine, there is no point - neither political nor military"

Assuming that we can finally take him at his word, good news.  Of course, this could be laying the ground for a false flag - but regardless, it is a significant climb-down from previous broad / obvious hints that nukes were on the table.

So put your MREs up on eBay, you won't need them

[womble]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Putin rules out nuclear strike on Ukraine (msn.com)

" We do not need a nuclear strike on Ukraine, there is no point - neither political nor military"

Assuming that we can finally take him at his word, good news.  Of course, this could be laying the ground for a false flag - but regardless, it is a significant climb-down from previous broad / obvious hints that nukes were on the table.

So put your MREs up on eBay, you won't need them

It doesn't reassure me much, since when Russia says it's not going to do something (invade Ukraine, bombard a grain port, interdict a humanitarian convoy, target hospitals), they usually go right ahead and do that thing, in the same way that they accuse everyone else of the war crimes they commit, of being criminal gangsters in charge of a country, of being supremacist autocratic bigots, or pretty much any of the unwholesome things Russia does and is.

Russia lies. How much for those MREs?

[A Canadian Cat]

I do love the idea of Ianstan and being an all powerful dictator.

I think a lot of what you and @The_Capt are writing is in violent agreement with just a slightly different point of view.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Does this make Putin delusional?  No, it makes him woefully uninformed. 

It actually makes him wilfully uninformed.

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's not the same thing even if the effect is identical.  Why?  Because if Putin had been sat down and told the truth by someone he trusted MAYBE this war would not have happened.  But as far as we know this didn't happen.

Right but your own story line of Ianstan highlights how someone sitting down and telling me the truth would just not be possible, because I made sure of that. Putin has done the same. He designed his regime so that he remains will fully ignorant.

I think this is important. Putin isn't just a victim of becoming isolated he designed his regime that way. He chose to operate that way. Putin is supposed to be a bright guy, I have no doubt he is. But in his younger years he must have watched dictator after dictator fall because they did exactly what he did. Heck leaders in democratic countries get disconnected and do dumb stuff too (just not as dramatic - mostly because they get tossed before they get that far). He must have / should have know that is a side effect of taking power and running a dictatorship. And yet he made the exact same mistakes himself...

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

In a sense Putin's presumption that he could create a government based on fear and corruption that would not lead him astray is where the real delusion is.  But that's what people exposed to unlimited power tend to do, which is why they more often than not fail in the end.

Yes, that is delusional I agree. You just moved the case up stream a little. That is all we disagree about.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Putin rules out nuclear strike on Ukraine (msn.com)

" We do not need a nuclear strike on Ukraine, there is no point - neither political nor military"

Assuming that we can finally take him at his word, good news.  Of course, this could be laying the ground for a false flag - but regardless, it is a significant climb-down from previous broad / obvious hints that nukes were on the table.

So put your MREs up on eBay, you won't need them

No no no.  Do not get rid of your MREs!  The N Korea EMP attack that will send us back to the stone age is imminent!

It's interesting that folks won't prep for things like earthquakes & floods & hurricanes that happen all the time but tell then that a physically impossible event by some bogeyman will occur and a whole industry & fiction genre is launched.  

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Assuming that we can finally take him at his word

We can't. In fact we can assume that when he calm down on some topic, his minions are secretely working on how to stir some troubles on the very same issue. False traces, hollow promises and contradictory statements are bread and butter of his concious FSB upbringing. Creating cognitive disonanse among victims is first step to shaping your own reality. The problem is, as we demonstrably see in case of this catastrophic war, it can backfire and one can become prisoner of this "no reality" state.

Edited October 28, 2022 by Beleg85

[acrashb]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

We can't.

47 minutes ago, womble said:

It doesn't reassure me much,[...]

Russia lies. How much for those MREs?

Agreed that we can't and Russia lies.  So what does this mean?  Is it to prepare Russians for exiting Ukraine because nukes are the only way and now they are off the table?  Is it setting conditions for a false flag attack?  Is it backing away from previous statements to create strategic ambiguity, only to ratchet up later?  Is it for Russophile consumption so they can say "you see, Russia is reasonable and NATO is an aggressive alliance"?

Either way it is a climb-down from previous statements; the only question is why.  On that, I have no insight.  I do know that every statement is deliberate and purposeful.

36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

No no no.  Do not get rid of your MREs!  The N Korea EMP attack that will send us back to the stone age is imminent!

It's interesting that folks won't prep for things like earthquakes & floods & hurricanes that happen all the time but tell then that a physically impossible event by some bogeyman will occur and a whole industry & fiction genre is launched.  

You're so right.  Part of my professional life is business continuity planning - I take my own advice and keep a few week's basic supplies.  For once, my government agrees with me.

People laugh when they hear about my modest cache of MREs - but when they get old you just eat them, and a few years ago when an ice storm cut our little village off from the rest of the world for a few days (trees down on roads) and power off for more than a week, we ate like kings.  Camping stove and copious propane cylinders helped

Regards your "It's interesting...", this is a well-studied phenomenon of risk management.  Most people overestimate tiny risks (plane crashes) and underestimate common risks (automobile crashes).  Schneier has a neat summary: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/03/fear_and_the_av.html

 

[BlackMoria]

56 minutes ago, IanL said:

I do love the idea of Ianstan and being an all powerful dictator.

All hail, our new dark overlord?!

[Zeleban]

7 hours ago, Butschi said:

Without any context the sole purpose of this video is obviously to vilify Russians

 

Just got back from an 8 hour blackout and found that my post offended someone. Well, I apologize for my stunt and I promise from now on, despite any troubles created for me by the Russians, I will not offend your feelings for the Russians.

[Huba]

Some interesting developments from today:

Italy is sending M109s to Ukraine (reportedly they will first overhaul them). Their stock stands at 200, so there's plenty to draw from. Meloni definitely didn't turn out to be a Putin supporter, like many warned.

There were various reports today about UA advancing around Svatove. Unfortunately, between official UA media blackout, and RU crackdown on Telegramers like Rybar it's really hard to learn anything reliable. What seems to be sure is that UA is consolidation positions east of Zherebets and is preparing an assault on Svatove - Kreminna line.

And a little development from PL turf. During  today's session of parliamentary Defence Committee, there was an remark that in 2023 Poland intends to increase the number of F-16 squadrons - meaning that either we'll stand in the line for new Block 70s (rather unlikely), or that Uncle Sam is willing to share some of US aircraft. It may or may not have some implications for Ukraine, like handing over the MiG-29s, perhaps after some upgrades and integration of NATO weapons? There's no more info on this as of now.

Edited October 28, 2022 by Huba