How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

Maybe he will announce "full" mobilization that requires 10 million mobilized

[RockinHarry]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, there's certainly a lot more layers to the Russian Failure Cake than what I just cited   My point, though, is that forests present additional challenges to the use of drones for recon.  At least as long as there are leaves on the trees or the forest is coniferous.  Drones are best used to recon specific spots where the enemy might be.  Treelines along fields, small villages, key road junctions, etc.  This allows the operator to know what general area to send the drone to and then narrows down where to search once there.  A large forested area doesn't allow for this.  Therefore, eyes on the ground are needed to provide information, either directly through contact or by narrowing down the areas for the drones to focus on.

Hm... would be an interesting case for LIDAR equipped drones (theoretically). They´re very successful in finding ancient fortifications, settlements and past terrain alterations for archaeology. So any recently built combat positions will be easy finds for them. How much these would be practical in a combat environment.... IDK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lidar

Edited October 19, 2022 by RockinHarry

[dan/california]

16 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Speaking of the right thing, anyone know how buses are supposed to be going over the Dnieper??  Antonovsky?  Ferries?  The dam? 

Whatever way provides the best human shield to the retreating Russians

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

One of reasons about which Russians told - experienced crews will stuck to own old habits in handling with T-72 series and they will adopt more hardly to new tank, so will be best to teach fresh mobilized from zero on modern equipment

Yeah, except they skipped the training part.

11 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It's also dangerous because of explosives on board the drone.

Could hit these drones with a laser guided 70 mm rocket? And what would be the best platform to hang them on? Even a Super Tucano seems like overkill. You just need the most basic thing out their that can carry a rocket pod and have the laser rigged up. You don't need to dodge SAMS or dogfight. Just systematically line up on one non eveading target after another. Would need good ground control to vector in.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, RockinHarry said:

Hm... would be an interesting case for LIDAR equipped drones (theoretically). They´re very successful in finding ancient fortifications, settlements and past terrain alterations for archaeology. So any recently built combat positions will be easy finds for them. How much these would be practical in a combat environment.... IDK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lidar

They have to fly a straight and level back and forth flight path that is commonly referred to as 'Target practice 101"

[RockinHarry]

33 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They have to fly a straight and level back and forth flight path that is commonly referred to as 'Target practice 101"

I don´t know details about the system generally but from my understanding it depends on flight height and technical resolution. So one pass might be just enough for an area of interest. What I don´t know is wavelength of that laser systems. Could maybe problematic in night times I guess. But was just an idea. Wiki tells there´s some miltary use already but tells little details.

Interesting article on topic. https://www.conflictarchaeology.ugent.be/en/case-studies/traces/

Edited October 19, 2022 by RockinHarry

[Beleg85]

Interesting thread, those folks get on left bank of Dnieper river almost week ago and unfortunatelly were lucky not be Himars-ed. It is curious what are real Russian transport capabilities in case of controlled withdrawal.

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, kraze said:

Maybe he will announce "full" mobilization that requires 10 million mobilized

Well, those men will be need to get the Baltic states and Poland and Finland.  Those are next on the list.  Will be totally worth it.  

The current sanctions were severely degrading the RU economy, and now mobilization (+ folks fleeing country) seems to be wreaking havoc on top of that.  So how is it that some folks still think RU is able to sustain this disaster over the next year or more??

[Zeleban]

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Edited October 19, 2022 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR hasn't R-77 missiles

I'm sorry, I wanted to say R-73

[Beleg85]

One of the reasons it would be self-defeating on Russian part to flood the Dnieper river is security of atomic plant and energy grids.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

That pilot of MiG-29 told fighter jets enough good against Shakheds in night time, when them hard to spot visually and land radars can pass them, or detect too close to their target, because of they fly usually low. But radars of fighters can detect theese drones - their dimensions and geometry give enough clear signal on radars, he didn't say what type of missiles he used, but if he meant radar, maybe this R-27R/ER semi-active missiles. Also I read some reports, that our fighters use guns, when can detect drones visually in daylight/dawn. But I suppose guns is too dangerous due to high speed of jet and low speed of drone. 

UKR hasn't R-77 missiles, but I think R-27 can be used, though there are contraversal opinions about capabilities of IR homing to lock Shakhed, Orlan or similar drone 

Seems like a clever Ukrainian could write an app that people can leave running on their phone when they aren’t using it that uses the mic to pick up shahed engine sounds and transmits time & location data to a server that tracks them similar to MLAT mode for ADS-B.  Phones wouldn’t have to be fixed location or dedicated, just a lot of them listening at any time.

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Tenses said:

Anyone knows or suspects what is actually happenning in Kherson? I don't like this "evacuate quickly" b******t from Russians. They are always silent when they are hit hard, there must be something in the making.

I fear the most some devil's work on Kahovka dam, which would be insane but this is what they are. The best scenario is that they don't want to lose potential mobilisation meat from the soon to be deocuppied western side of the river so they take it with them.

 

Mashovets writes that it looks like the Russians are not at all going to leave Kherson without a fight. They transferred additional forces to the bridgehead. They also created an additional line of fortifications in the northwestern part of the city. He also notes that there is no offensive from Ukraine yet.

[chrisl]

27 minutes ago, RockinHarry said:

I don´t know details about the system generally but from my understanding it depends on flight height and technical resolution. So one pass might be just enough for an area of interest. What I don´t know is wavelength of that laser systems. Could maybe problematic in night times I guess. But was just an idea. Wiki tells there´s some miltary use already but tells little details.

Wavelength can be anything you can make a laser with, all the way out to microwave, where it becomes SAR.  LiDAR is typically visible or near IR, so 400 nm to 1550 nm.  There are a few wavelengths in that range that are popular because they’re mass produced lasers (532, 1064, 1550 nm)

[NamEndedAllen]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...I don't personally believe in Vlad's nuke, but if I did, it could take the form of a high altitude 100kt EMP blast aimed at destroying central Ukraine's power grid.  The USSR tested a series in Central Asia in the 1960s. That way he can 'absolve' himself of killing civilians, directly.

Pretty sure that would be perceived by most of the West to be a WMD use. Possibly China as well, given its vulnerabilities to similar effects.

[acrashb]

Pressing family into service, Finland on the front lines:
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/10/russian-dual-citizenship-detained-flying-drone-svalbard

 

[acrashb]

Shaping the battlefield:

 

[Haiduk]

Russian Lantset-2 loitering munition hit two UKR radars. I suppose, both can be repaired, but they obviosly taken out from action for enough long time

 

 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

This is interesting. What do the tea leaves suggest about such “deals”? Difficult to believe that Chinese don’t have a clue that nearly have their sophisticated product is slag. “I know NOTHING! NOTHINK!”
 

Russia has turned to China as a source of semiconductors due to sanctions cutting off suppliesfrom elsewhere, but a large percentage of the chips being imported simply don't work.

As The Register reports(, the chip failure rate is as high as 40% according to Russian national daily newspaper Kommersant. These chips are being purchased on the gray market by Russian electronics manufacturers from Chinese sellers. And it seems those sellers are taking advantage of the situation to dump broken parts in Russia while making a profit.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/china-is-selling-russia-lots-of-faulty-chips?utm_source=email&utm_campaign=whatsnewnow&zdee=gAAAAABjNL8PmPe1NVwXmsDz8u4vSBveiNgx9PrBRN7r8ioXhCPYQf9r8MTGbPb8VidcggehfuHNBYyHzuH4Bs9gxdWcd7aHBGYzEud9Yp2tH6xrHV4VqVs%3D

[Haiduk]

Russian ammunition convoy being HIMARSed in Stara Krasnianka village vicinity between Kreminna and Rubizhne

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Chibot Mk IX]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

That pilot of MiG-29 told fighter jets enough good against Shakheds in night time, when them hard to spot visually and land radars can pass them, or detect too close to their target, because of they fly usually low. But radars of fighters can detect theese drones - their dimensions and geometry give enough clear signal on radars, he didn't say what type of missiles he used, but if he meant radar, maybe this R-27R/ER semi-active missiles. Also I read some reports, that our fighters use guns, when can detect drones visually in daylight/dawn. But I suppose guns is too dangerous due to high speed of jet and low speed of drone. 

UKR hasn't R-77 missiles, but I think R-27 can be used, though there are contraversal opinions about capabilities of IR homing to lock Shakhed, Orlan or similar drone 

Thanks for the info.

Actually using radar to track and lock the target would be a great help in an IR missile or air to air gun engagement. It helps the pilot to read the target's heading and speed, this information is crucial in a short engagement window.  

 

A little OT, maybe the DCS community will soon upload a user made scenario, to simulate the Mig-29 intercept Shahed drones. They just released a Mig-29+HARM SEAD mission.

MiG-29S + HARM Basic Mission

 

[Tenses]

26 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Shaping the battlefield:

 

Finally. Without arty Russians are dead meat.

[Haiduk]

So, German-supplied IRIS-T got own batize of fire in Ukraine. Today was spotted parts of missiles of theese SAMs in some forest near Kyiv, so likely they have been participating since yesterday in defense of Kyiv.

Here the video of yesterday stirke on our district thermal power plant, incoming Kh-101 was shot probably with Iris-T. First hit (where smoke) was reportedly because Shakhed attack, but it might be and cruise missile (alas, three employees of power plant were killed by explosion)

Today two Kh-101 were shot down over Kyiv. There were two booms, last one enough loud - this missile was intercepted already over the city. First missile shot down a fighter jet.

Two other missiles, incoming to Kyiv from NE were shot down in 70 km from city limit in Chernihiv oblast

Remains of shot down Kh-101

 

Except 4 Kh-101 Air Forces claimed for today 10 Shakheds. Alas, two missiles and probably some number of Shakheds successfully hit power infrastructure objects in Vinnytsia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblast

[Letter from Prague]

So when Russia says "we are evacuating people from Kherson" are they talking about collaborators and Russian soldiers or is this the new euphemism for forced resettlement they always did, that for some reason Western media still reprints as "evacuation"?

Also, I want to make that bad joke about, Finland is build a border wall - will the make Russia pay for it? 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Haiduk]

Theoretical look of "Wagner line" in Luhansk oblast - from the south from Svitlodarsk to the north from Popasna and to Siverskiy Donets river anf futher along southern bank of river

[Chibot Mk IX]

53 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian Lantset-2 loitering munition hit two UKR radars. I suppose, both can be repaired, but they obviosly taken out from action for enough long time

Looks like Russian intensified the SEAD/DEAD mission recently. Can't remember where the original source is, but I read the Russian increase the IL-22 EW aircraft sorties a lot ,  not sure if that's the cause.

Or maybe it's just because Ukraine side move SAM units forward, to protect the offensive in Kherson region?