How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

As I noted earlier on, US aid to Ukraine is not in any way assured after January 21st of next year if the GOP takes the House. There will be a large fight using the debt ceiling to attempt to cut Social Security, Medicare and Ukraine aid. The Senate GOP will take the WH side of this for the most part but we can fully expect an aid crisis by March at the latest. You could call it Putin's greatest hope at the moment.

[OldSarge]

I caught this interview with LTG Hertling, I tend to stop and listen to him as he always has an interesting perspective. His opinion seems to mirror the observations here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=We8ANNRBZ38

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by OldSarge

[Holien]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

Yes, but to my amazement in ww2 barrage balloons were rather succesfull against V1's (Wiki).

Those were bigger than drones, but still, balloons - perhaps with some form of netting - could be a rather cheap (temporary) solution.

I have no doubt the Ukranians are already thinking about something similar.

Fishing Nets between Balloons to protect power stations could be a quick fix and if you know the route of the drones set them up ready to pop up when you know they are comming?

[Yet]

RU doesnt have any problem hitting civilian targets. but is there a realistic chance that the appartment and playground hits are off target are just misses to other,  more logical targets like powerplants, industry, communications or logistics. With the goal to disrupt the UKR war-economy?

[akd]

Beware the drone in the sun:

 

[cesmonkey]

40 minutes ago, billbindc said:

As I noted earlier on, US aid to Ukraine is not in any way assured after January 21st of next year if the GOP takes the House. There will be a large fight using the debt ceiling to attempt to cut Social Security, Medicare and Ukraine aid. The Senate GOP will take the WH side of this for the most part but we can fully expect an aid crisis by March at the latest. You could call it Putin's greatest hope at the moment.

Worst case, the Biden administration, could to turn to using the  The Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 was is good for all of fiscal year 2023 and which they have ignored until now.

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, RockinHarry said:

fear

Fear will cause hesitation. That is what Putin wants - hesitation, and time to hold his regime together so he does not get hauled in front of a war crimes tribunal. That could be one of Putin's primary motivators at this point in the war. The West might just allow a severely wounded Putin to remain if they start to hear about threatened WMD transfers. Unlikely scenario, but I hope a few people with influence are losing a bit of sleep over it. However, in the meantime Ukraine will recapture lost ground sort of following what the ISW piece described over the weekend. Maybe the pace needs to be quicker. 

[Taranis]

Iran to deliver missiles and more drones to Russia

Quote

 

Reuters says Iran has pledged to supply Russia with more surface-to-surface missiles and drones, citing two senior Iranian officials and two diplomats. According to the news agency, an agreement was reached on October 6 during a visit to Moscow by Iran's first vice-president, Mohammad Mokhber, two senior members of the Revolutionary Guards and an official of the Supreme Council of national security.

"The Russians have requested more drones and Iranian ballistic missiles with improved accuracy, including Fateh and Zolfaghar missiles ," one of the Iranian diplomats said. A Western official briefed on the matter confirmed this information to Reuters, explaining that an agreement had been reached between Iran and Russia regarding the supply of short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, including Zolfaghars.

The Iranian diplomat refuted claims by Western officials that the shipments violated a 2015 UN Security Council resolution: “Where they are used is not the seller's problem. We are not taking sides in the Ukraine crisis as the West does. We want a way out of the crisis through diplomatic channels. »

Ukraine has reported in recent weeks an increase in Russian attacks using Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones. Iran has always denied supplying these devices to Moscow.

 

Departure of French tanks to Romania

Quote

 

The first two convoys of armored infantry fighting vehicles (VBCI) left Tuesday morning from the Mourmelon-le-Grand military camp (Marne) towards Romania. A deployment as part of Operation Aigle, which aims to strengthen the defense of NATO's eastern flank over time.

Leclerc tanks are also due to join the Cincu military base in the center of the country in the coming days to reinforce this mission under French command, launched on February 28, 2022 in response to Russian strikes in Ukraine. “France is honoring its commitments to NATO and our partners ,” said Major General François Goguenheim, head of the Continental Europe land command post in Lille.

"There has not been a logistical operation of this importance in Europe since [Operation] Daguet" - the name given to the French participation in the international coalition formed after the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq at the beginning of the 1990s – he added. About ten convoys must gradually leave Mourmelon for Romania, transporting more than 2,000 kilometers across Europe about ten Leclerc tanks, as well as about twenty armored vehicles.

 

Source Le Monde

[NamEndedAllen]

Summation of recent Russian terror attacks on civilian sector of Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63297239

[Letter from Prague]

If West had balls, Iran would be pretty stupid in helping Russia - they have pretty big protests right now, and somebody giving it a push (e.g. delivering weapons to protesters) would put the Iran government in a world of hurt.

But Iran seems to be making the bet that West has no balls, and it seems to be paying off.

[kraze]

15 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

If West had balls, Iran would be pretty stupid in helping Russia - they have pretty big protests right now, and somebody giving it a push (e.g. delivering weapons to protesters) would put the Iran government in a world of hurt.

But Iran seems to be making the bet that West has no balls, and it seems to be paying off.

Yep, if West keeps being reactive - we may see Iran getting nukes by the end of this year or at the start of the next. And then they can finally be "deeply concerned" about that too.

[keas66]

Just now, kraze said:

Yep, if West keeps being reactive - we may see Iran getting nukes by the end of this year or at the start of the next. And then they can finally be "deeply concerned" about that too.

 I'm not sure the apparently  Russian Loving Israelis would stomach that .

[Letter from Prague]

Just now, kraze said:

Yep, if West keeps being reactive - we may see Iran getting nukes by the end of this year or at the start of the next. And then they can finally be "deeply concerned" about that too.

Russian nukes has been a great excuse to do nothing for years and even now with Russian running drone-assisted genocide they serve as great excuse to do as little as possible.

Iran having nukes will make a lot of people happy (but deeply concerned publicly), because it will make Iran untouchable and thus nothing can be done. It is great when nothing can be done, because then we have to do nothing!

But maybe I'm too negative.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Worst case, the Biden administration, could to turn to using the  The Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 was is good for all of fiscal year 2023 and which they have ignored until now.

As I understand it, the Lend-Lease only accelerates production and delivery of materiel, not the appropriation of funding for said materiel. 

[kraze]

Just now, keas66 said:

 I'm not sure the apparently  Russian Loving Israelis would stomach that .

To be fair on one hand we have "jews did holocaust" courtesy of Ministry of Foreign Affairs and on the other hand we have Israel cancelling any military talks with Ukraine after that very same MoFo said "giving any Israeli weapons to Ukraine will make us feel bad" yesterday. I think at this point Israel is more concerned with making an immediate 15% of their voters happy than long term issues with Iran or so it seems.

[keas66]

Just now, kraze said:

To be fair on one hand we have "jews did holocaust" courtesy of Ministry of Foreign Affairs and on the other hand we have Israel cancelling any military talks with Ukraine after that very same MoFo said "giving any Israeli weapons to Ukraine will make us feel bad" yesterday. I think at this point Israel is more concerned with making an immediate 15% of their voters happy than long term issues with Iran or so it seems.

Just not sure that Iran acquiring Nukes from Russia could be described as a long term problem . I do not think this would be allowed to happen .

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

What I dont really get is why Russia, facing the major threat of himars and other artillery pieces, didnt conduct a massive drone campaign against these. They did fire more at night and RU ISR is lacking but still I would at least try with a swarm of Shaheds and a surv drone towards suspected areas. 

Russians can't hit what they can't find.  Even if they could, they had difficulty hitting a power station.  A power station is a tad bit bigger than a HIMARS

Drones have the same limitations as all other forms of ISR in that they can only find what they can see and they can't see everywhere all the time.  Even if they did spot something, HIMARS doesn't stick around and unless you have a loitering munition drone with a munition that tracks moving targets, fat load of good it will do to spot a HIMARS.  Best Russia can hope for is being able to track it back to a hiding place and hit the hiding place.  Given how far behind the lines HIMARS operate, that's not likely to happen.

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I think Ukraine hasnt lost a single HiMARS so far...

Correct.  Russian MoD has even stopped lying about hitting HIMARS.  No point because they keep getting hit by them, so lying about destroying them doesn't seem to be worth while.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

13 minutes ago, keas66 said:

 I'm not sure the apparently  Russian Loving Israelis would stomach that .

They are not as much Russian loving as they are actual Russians - about 15 % of Israeli are Russian speakers, which would give you about one in ten Israelis being actual Russians, assuming where they are from is evenly distributed.

e: I'm posting this because I was genuinely surprised when I found out - I had no idea. With this in mind the Israel stance makes much more sense.

Edited October 18, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[FancyCat]

Giving the Iranian government the excuse to crush u.s supported uprisings is exactly what we don't want to do. Let the protests occur without letting them be overly seen as U.S supported is key to letting reforms occur hopefully.

Russia is actually terrorist scum, forcing the civilian population to flee Kherson, would allow one, Russian forces to flee alongside, two, give Russian forces coverage as they flee. The dam also would flood the left bank as the right bank is the higher elevation side.

 

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

They are not as much Russian loving as they are actual Russians - about 15 % of Israeli are Russian speakers, which would give you about one in ten Israelis being actual Russians, assuming where they are from is evenly distributed.

e: I'm posting this because I was genuinely surprised when I found out - I had no idea. With this in mind the Israel stance makes much more sense.

The Soviet Union didn't like Jews any more than Nazi Germany, but after the forced moves out to the Far East they seemed to be less interested in spending energy on dealing with their "Jewish Question".  Then along came Israel and said "hey, if you don't want your Jews, why not send them here?".  And so lots and lots of Soviet Jews were officially allowed to leave the otherwise closed Soviet Union.  For the Soviets it was a win-win... they got rid of Jews and nobody was pissed at them for how they got rid of them.

At least that's how I remember it

Steve

[FancyCat]

Civilian and stationary targets are easier to target than roving HIMARS, and their fake replicas.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

As I noted earlier on, US aid to Ukraine is not in any way assured after January 21st of next year if the GOP takes the House. There will be a large fight using the debt ceiling to attempt to cut Social Security, Medicare and Ukraine aid. The Senate GOP will take the WH side of this for the most part but we can fully expect an aid crisis by March at the latest. You could call it Putin's greatest hope at the moment.

Putin and his inner circle are acutely aware of the implications of American politics for his prospects for prevailing in this war against democracies. And the seeds he planted in the 2016 elections are blooming in a large number of the candidates in next month’s USA midterm elections. Adding the shaky economy strengthens their chances. American economic woes are historically a strong indicator for removing the Party in power.

While Russia tries to determine how to attack Ukraine’s will to fight - its center of gravity? - arguably Ukraine’s center of gravity for international support is the USA’s military assistance and sanctions’ enforcement. We’ve seen Russia’s well-documented and relentless attacks on the USA through every non-combat means available since at least the 2016 Presidential campaign. Undermining the USA’s faith in its own governance, in its democracy, and its internal cohesion as a means to weaken USA foreign policies - especially towards Russia. Republicans are quite likely to control both houses of Congress and the Presidency. They already have a significant majority on the Supreme Court. Polls in 2021 and 2022 consistently show that Republicans view Russian President Putin more favorably than the President of the USA. Let that sink in. Have we ever seen that before? Ever?
 

 

[Jiggathebauce]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The Soviet Union didn't like Jews any more than Nazi Germany, but after the forced moves out to the Far East they seemed to be less interested in spending energy on dealing with their "Jewish Question".  Then along came Israel and said "hey, if you don't want your Jews, why not send them here?".  And so lots and lots of Soviet Jews were officially allowed to leave the otherwise closed Soviet Union.  For the Soviets it was a win-win... they got rid of Jews and nobody was pissed at them for how they got rid of them.

At least that's how I remember it

Steve

Saying Soviet anti semitism was similar to the Holocaust is in rather poor taste, to say the very least, and I hope you recognize that. 

[poesel]

4 hours ago, RockinHarry said:

I tend do believe rather not. If giving i.e Iran some required stuff (in exchange for more drones or frightening the west) then there´s no guarantee some is spreaded farer into islamic world. Israel would not just keep watching and China got to fear some might make it to the Uyghurs.

The question was, 'would they ... if their world collapsed?'.

I think, that is a 'yes'. If Russia would catastrophically collapse (and Iran's regime still exists at that point), giving WMDs to them would be a last inconsequential (for Russia) middle finger to the world.

But I'm quite sure that several agencies have that scenario at the ready in their cupboards.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

As I noted earlier on, US aid to Ukraine is not in any way assured after January 21st of next year if the GOP takes the House. There will be a large fight using the debt ceiling to attempt to cut Social Security, Medicare and Ukraine aid. The Senate GOP will take the WH side of this for the most part but we can fully expect an aid crisis by March at the latest. You could call it Putin's greatest hope at the moment.

Yup, totally expected.  The Republican members of the House are traditionally anti-foreign aid and isolationist, with some exceptions (weapon sales being one of them).  A separate faction, which shares this mindset, is also overtly Pro-Russian.  Together they make a pretty large chunk of the Republican caucus and the leadership is expressing its interest in following their lead.  There will be few Republicans that vote against leadership as independent decision making is actively discouraged.

The most problematic aspect is that if the Republicans regain control of the House they will have the "gavel".  This means that they get to set the agenda and voting schedule.  If they want to delay a vote on a particular bill, they have easy means to do it whereas right now they do not.

This might sound like political partisan statements, but it isn't.  If I were going to make it so I would have put in my own opinions instead of stating very simple, easily proven facts.  Instead, I'm pointing out that some degree of aid to Ukraine is going to be in doubt if the Republicans regain the House.  The pro-Ukrainian Senate and White House can only do so much without approval of the House.  Those here who don't have a solid grasp of US domestic politics need to be informed about this so when it happens there won't be shock.

Steve