How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sojourner]

9 minutes ago, JonS said:

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Russia needs to be declared a state sponsor of terrorism

I'm not sure that 'sponsor' is quite the right word here - they aren't really using cat's paws in Ukraine.

I think the word he was looking for is "perpetrator".

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

I think the word he was looking for is "perpetrator".

Yeah, not a sponsor.  They are a terrorist state.  Like ISIS except is a real state. 

[Harmon Rabb]

15 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Yeah, not a sponsor.  They are a terrorist state.  Like ISIS except is a real state. 

At this point the only difference I see between Putin's Russia and ISIS, is Putin's Russia is much more dangerous.

[Battlefront.com]

  

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

 

Yep, you are right, I thought them to be flares initially.

Perhaps posted before- a video of Ukrainian servicewomen that were exchanged today.

Excellent!  No, I don't think that was posted here yet.  108 women volunteers and soldiers released!  Here's some more info and pictures:

https://censor.net/en/photo_news/3374420/women_released_from_captivity_by_exchange_photos

Not much info on who they were exchanged for, except for this:

Quote

He did not provide details about the prisoners who were released by Ukraine in the exchange, which he described as tense. But the Russian-appointed head of one of the Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions said earlier that Kyiv freed 80 civilians and 30 military personnel.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-female-prisoner-exchange/32088443.html

80 civilians?  Interesting.  I would think the only civilians Russia would be looking to get back are Russians, so maybe admin officials overseeing various occupation duties?

Steve

[fireship4]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Alas, I havn't own account in twitter, so can't see locked twits (

https://nitter.net/TheDeadDistrict

[sburke]

56 minutes ago, JonS said:

I'm not sure that 'sponsor' is quite the right word here - they aren't really using cat's paws in Ukraine.

yeah I have a lot of words most of which I can't put on forum...

anyway was looking for the technical expression the gov't uses to enact that level of reaction - i.e. you aid the Russians and maybe we'll give you a room in Gitmo.

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

Excellent!  No, I don't think that was posted here yet.  108 women volunteers and soldiers released!  Here's some more info and pictures:

https://censor.net/en/photo_news/3374420/women_released_from_captivity_by_exchange_photos

Not much info on who they were exchanged for, except for this:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-female-prisoner-exchange/32088443.html

80 civilians?  Interesting.  I would think the only civilians Russia would be looking to get back are Russians, so maybe admin officials overseeing various occupation duties?

Steve

Didn't the Ukrainians capture a bunch of Russian teachers when the lines disintegrated in Kharkiv?  I seem to recall they probably didn't even have Geneva Convention status as combatants. They were technically liable to being charged under Ukrainian law and sent to prison for a LONG time. I suspect It was in everyone's best interest to do a deal.

[Beleg85]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Excellent!  No, I don't think that was posted here yet.  108 women volunteers and soldiers released!  Here's some more info and pictures:

This is very good news. Still a lot of Ukrainians are POW's in Russians hands, including Azowvstal defenders. It will be very interesting to future historians of this war to dig into documents what real bargaing chips Ukrainians had they were able to bring out entire Mariupol high command.

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Didn't the Ukrainians capture a bunch of Russian teachers when the lines disintegrated in Kharkiv?  I seem to recall they probably didn't even have Geneva Convention status as combatants. They were technically liable to being charged under Ukrainian law and sent to prison for a LONG time. I suspect It was in everyone's best interest to do a deal.

Yup, good point. Ukrainians at this board will perhaps know more.

 

One interesting thread why we shouldn't freak out about Belarus news (link only, page seems to be already overcrowded with videos):

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1582044513274822656

[paxromana]

According to the BBC the prisoners Ukraine swapped were Russian sailors from interned ships and some DPR soldiers.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63293901

Edited October 17, 2022 by paxromana

[kevinkin]

59 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

At this point the only difference I see between Putin's Russia and ISIS, is Putin's Russia is much more dangerous.

Would Russia ever consider passing WMD technology to a non-state actor as their world collapses? Although the ISW analysis yesterday (posted a bunch of pages back) suggests Putin might escape by the skin of his teeth.

"The Kremlin would use any suspension of hostilities to consolidate its gains and freeze the frontline in the best configuration Putin can get to prepare for future coercion and aggression against Ukraine. Those seeking enduring peace in Ukraine must resist the temptation to freeze the lines of combat short of Ukraine’s international borders in ways that set conditions for renewed conflict on Russia’s terms."

I don't see how the West would drop the ball at this point. And whatever the border, it will be the most watched of all time. Any new attacks would be futile regardless of the exact starting positions. 

"If Ukraine is to emerge from this war able to defend itself against a future Russian attack and with a viable economy that does not rely on long-term international financial support, it must liberate almost all its territory."

[panzermartin]

 

I get some harkonen vibes from the new Russian commander 

[sross112]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

 

I get some harkonen vibes from the new Russian commander 

Or all he really wants is sharks with freaking laser beams on their heads....

[Jammason]

8 hours ago, Tenses said:

Looking forward I think that this war shows how laser usage en masse will be a total game changer in future conflicts. Heavy laser defence of urban and static military targets, medium laser C-RAM of mechanized, artillery and SAM units, light laser on some individual vehicles for self-defense(especially airbone).

Massive laser usage adresses just so many problems, which adversaries struggle with right now, that it seems inevitable. It is really a shame that this is still not mature/declassified enough to hand it over to Ukraine.  

I don't think lasers will ever be the right solution to the drone problem; too easy to harden a drone against them. A simple aluminum nitride or similar ceramic skin & propellers (even super powerful industrial lasers have a hard time with certain ceramics, and that's with a stationary target from a range of less than 1cm) plus sensors and an on-board algorithm that says "if things are getting hot, rotate and randomly dart around". Plus, a laser powerful enough to do damage from a distance is going to be huge, expensive, and difficult to produce and maintain, and thus a high value, difficult-to-replace target that will be prioritized by the enemy. Effectiveness will also vary with weather (temperature & atmospherics like fog, smoke, rain, and snow).

Nope, I think the answer is cheap kinetics fired by systems like Gephard or C-RAM. Barring those (also rare and expensive) systems, you could equip front-line forces with hundreds of anti-drone drones, which are already a thing that companies like Anduril are making as part of a more complete counter UAS system:  https://www.anduril.com/hardware/anvil/ 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Jammason said:

I don't think lasers will ever be the right solution to the drone problem; too easy to harden a drone against them. A simple aluminum nitride or similar ceramic skin & propellers (even super powerful industrial lasers have a hard time with certain ceramics, and that's with a stationary target from a range of less than 1cm) plus sensors and an on-board algorithm that says "if things are getting hot, rotate and randomly dart around". Plus, a laser powerful enough to do damage from a distance is going to be huge, expensive, and difficult to produce and maintain, and thus a high value, difficult-to-replace target that will be prioritized by the enemy. Effectiveness will also vary with weather (temperature & atmospherics like fog, smoke, rain, and snow).

Nope, I think the answer is cheap kinetics fired by systems like Gephard or C-RAM. Barring those (also rare and expensive) systems, you could equip front-line forces with hundreds of anti-drone drones, which are already a thing that companies like Anduril are making as part of a more complete counter UAS system:  https://www.anduril.com/hardware/anvil/ 

I am going to respectfully disagree. Drones need to be light cheap, and plentiful. I fully agree that a centimeter of aluminum nitride is highly laser resistant. The quarter of a millimeter that might be a practical coating for a small, battery powered, flying thing that needs to carry a payload, not so much. And for most drones blinding the optics is as good as a k-kill. This is going to be its own arms race though, i am sure there will be surprises all around. The one thing I will bet on is that where current drone employment is mostly a one a or two at a time thing, in the next war table stakes is going to be flights of ten or twenty. The Iranian stuff is already sort of attempting this, although it doesn't have the sophistication to do much more than give a bunch of them the same target.

 

Edit: and guns don't have the range to defend whole city, not unless you have hundreds, and hundreds of them. The upfront cost and the manning for that add up rather quickly. U.S.Army is rapidly moving to a shorad battalion structure that has guns, missiles, and lasers. This is the throw it at the wall see what sticks stage of the drone arms race.

Edited October 18, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

This may be the funniest tweet of the whole bleeping war. I move this becomes forum standard terminology going forward.

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This may be the funniest tweet of the whole bleeping war. I move this becomes forum standard terminology going forward.

The Russian bride by mail industry must also be harmed by sanctions.  So these "gold diggers" have to look closer to home.

That wasn't very PC of me, but hey... it's not like I'm making this stuff up!

Steve

[danfrodo]

34 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This may be the funniest tweet of the whole bleeping war. I move this becomes forum standard terminology going forward.

The "smart ones"?  Putin doesn't pay his bills.  There aren't any Ladas to give.  And the money will never come.  These women will get nothing except their ex-husbands debts.

[Battlefront.com]

Sheesh... you know it's a slow day in OSINT combat news when ISW has their daily report out late evening my time instead of into the wee hours of the night.

This interesting bit in a section on Prigozhin caught my eye:

Quote

Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels commented on the Belgorod training ground shooting incident, noting that a “quiet civil war” is currently ongoing in Russia due to the Russian government’s long-term inability to restrict migration presumably from Central Asian countries.

...

While Prigozhin does not directly oppose or criticize Putin, his growing notoriety within the nationalist community may undermine Putin’s “strongman” appeal by comparison. The emerging discussions about a civil war in Russia may further disrupt the Kremlin’s narratives about the national, ethnic, and religious unity within Russia.

I hope we see Grigb back again soon so he can tell us what this all means

There's a good discussion about how Putin's end to the partial mobilization left things a mess that is providing ingredients for larger social conflict (see above comment by Wagner's PR)

Steve

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, sross112 said:

Or all he really wants is sharks with freaking laser beams on their heads....

Don't we all?

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

 

I get some harkonen vibes from the new Russian commander 

Refugee from a Comic Book.

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sheesh... you know it's a slow day in OSINT combat news when ISW has their daily report out late evening my time instead of into the wee hours of the night.

This interesting bit in a section on Prigozhin caught my eye:

I hope we see Grigb back again soon so he can tell us what this all means

There's a good discussion about how Putin's end to the partial mobilization left things a mess that is providing ingredients for larger social conflict (see above comment by Wagner's PR)

Steve

Makes me wonder whether the whole seemingly pointless Bakhmut 'offensives' is Prigozhin just building up political street cred for later.  If Putin goes down and there's a power vacuum Prigozhin can promote himself as the one who upheld RU honor by never retreating and continuing to fight while everyone else fell apart.  Would play well in the RU nat community I bet.  Everyone else will be part of the 'stab in the back' conspiracy but not this brave, unyielding warrior.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I am going to respectfully disagree. Drones need to be light cheap, and plentiful. I fully agree that a centimeter of aluminum nitride is highly laser resistant. The quarter of a millimeter that might be a practical coating for a small, battery powered, flying thing that needs to carry a payload, not so much. And for most drones blinding the optics is as good as a k-kill. This is going to be its own arms race though, i am sure there will be surprises all around. The one thing I will bet on is that where current drone employment is mostly a one a or two at a time thing, in the next war table stakes is going to be flights of ten or twenty. The Iranian stuff is already sort of attempting this, although it doesn't have the sophistication to do much more than give a bunch of them the same target.

 

Edit: and guns don't have the range to defend whole city, not unless you have hundreds, and hundreds of them. The upfront cost and the manning for that add up rather quickly. U.S.Army is rapidly moving to a shorad battalion structure that has guns, missiles, and lasers. This is the throw it at the wall see what sticks stage of the drone arms race.

Anti-drone drones seems like the most reliable approach.  

A big piece of capital equipment, whether directed energy or kinetic, is just a big target, and once it's gone the opponent has free rein over the area.

Anti-drone drones can be cheaper than attack drones - they don't even need to have any kind of weapon other than themselves, and have the option of being explody or not.  A bunch of kevlar string can foul propellers - they can dangle strings or throw nets like gladiators, and one drone could carry multiple "fouling weapons".  They can run entirely autonomously once launched - if they don't need comm then they can't be jammed.  The tricky part is having an IFF system that works effectively (and isn't spoofable) in swarms where there might be a mix of friends and enemies.

[Sojourner]

Vampire, vampire...

Czech RM-70 in action in the Donbas

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-czech-vampire-russia-war/32088387.html

[Battlefront.com]

Just published video from Bakhmut covering early October.  The reporter seems to be with a TD unit.  Some closeups of dead Russians, you've been warned.  One of them had a plate carrier with nothing but a foam pad in it.  Took shrapnel to it and obviously that didn't turn out well for him.  The reporter said they were Chechens.  They certainly are dressed like them:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-war-bakhmut/32088294.html

Steve

[sross112]

When it comes to anti drone warfare the future might be lasers or air superiority drones or maybe even other things, but what about now? This war has had a lot of this, the future of the UA is probably M1s or Leopards, but what can they use right now is the bottom line. I don't see the drone question as being much different. Lasers are out there and being tested but the army with the biggest budget in the world is still in the developing and testing phase. 

With Perun's latest video and other discussion the UA needs a better option than wasting limited Buk or S300 missiles on these little kamikaze drones. I would think anything bigger than a MANPAD is going to have pretty limited missile stocks, except maybe NASAMS but there you have limited platforms. Some sort of kinetic solution seems like the most viable in the short term.

How about the old PIVADS or similar systems. We've seen the Gepards but what else is in storage in western countries of similar use? There's got to be some gun systems out there. I think I saw CIWS turrets on trailers for base defense awhile back. Someone mentioned an Aegis land system. Couldn't an Aegis land system with multiple CIWS turrets cover major targets or lines of approach? You'd think they would be able to have a turkey shoot with the slow stuff but maybe some of our Navy experts could chime in.