How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Switchgear of Belgorod "Luch" thermal plant under strike this evening

Looks like this a hostility of Kursk People's Republic toward Belgorod People's Repuplic. Ukraine seriously concerned and сalls for diplomacy! 

PS. Reportedly 8 from 10 S-300 missiles, launched from vicinity of Belgorod on Kahrkiv exploded in the air over Russian territory. One missile lost control and hit Belgorod thermal plant territory 

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

1200m turkey shoot:

Edited October 14, 2022 by akd

[Grossman]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, it was only a matter of time before Putin would have to do this.  The only other way to end the mil blogger problem would be to win the war.  That ship already sailed and sunk.

Oddly enough, this ties in very directly with the video I just posted above.  It is a sign that Putin is in the process of purging the RU Nat power base.  I highly doubt he acted against people like Girkin as a first step, so there's a bunch of things that have already happened which we haven't seen.

Could be something big is finally brewing within the Kremlin.

Steve

Steve. Putin thinks he and Russia can survive this. His life's ambition is recreation of Mother Russia. He is thinking long term, (although is not thinking of the long term consequences of his short term actions). There is no off ramp for Putin. Russia has to be pushed back to its old borders, and that means the commitment of heavy weaponry to Ukraine, and the Germans stepping up military assistance considerably, the supply of Leopold 2 tanks for instance.  In the end by 2024 it might mean commitment of an EU army in the field. Given the control Putin has in Russia, this is most unlikely to end soon, and can only be "ended" by forceful means.Regretfully. 

[billbindc]

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-cause-of-the-crimea-bridge-explosion

[FancyCat]

I doubt that Putin will be charting a moderate course, what is certain is the same sort of actions that underpin the arrest of anyone speaking up or protesting in public where even those who were prowar were snatched, apply here. Anything not government approved is suppressed or given full awareness that they exist at the government's pleasure. (Which gives full indication as to what factor the tv shows have of being controlled, and what isn't controlled opposition)

The RU nats must be furious, to have their loyalty and desire to improve the Russian military backfire on them. Fact that they are getting the full spectrum of RU bloggers indicates they want no dissent and more control, and not any individual running afoul.

[FancyCat]

Zoka also noted playfully that he/she would have likely been also listed had they been in Russia.

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by FancyCat

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Something to be said.  We are fortunate to have at least four Ukrainians in the Kyiv area who regularly post to this thread.  Since the terror strikes disrupted their lives we haven't seen much activity from them.  That is perfectly understandable.  I presume their daily routines got seriously upended in addition to it being more difficult to maintain connections to the internet.  The interactions with our Ukrainian members ensures we have a direct connection to this war each and every day we discuss it.  It is of great benefit to us all, as thinkers and as caring Human Beings, and I'm sure we all miss their contributions.  But the connections they have helped make between us and this war remains even in their temporary absence.

Slava Ukraini!

Steve

Main reason of my reduced activity is a work and some tiring from this 8-month information marathone Concerning to strike consequenses in our district of Kyiv - cell phones and internet still working. Main discomfort - there wasn't hot water for three days. Two days electricity was turning off at the morning for two hours and two days ago all our district has plunged into the darkness from 20:00 to 1:00 of next day. As I know Irpin' town was turning off completely on two days.  

Just a look from my balcony after the strike at the district thermal plant. There was two very loud booms. Most dense smoke is from missed missile. I don't know what could burn with such dark smoke. 

    

Edited October 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

Mashovets says that there are drone specialists from Iran in the Kherson region. Apparently they are training Russian drone crews.

He also has insider information that the Israeli military is considering expanding military assistance to Ukraine. But Israel's political leadership objects. Nevertheless, Israel provides Ukraine with detailed information on Iranian drones and also does not object to the entry of Israeli volunteers into the Ukrainian military service.

[Zeleban]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

As I know Irpin' town was turning off completely on two days.  

Not certainly in that way. We had a two-day time limit on the supply of electricity. There were two queues. While one queue has no electricity, the second receives electricity and vice versa.

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Not certainly in that way. We had a two-day time limit on the supply of electricity. There were two queues. While one queue has no electricity, the second receives electricity and vice versa.

pretty resilient grid.  We had rolling blackouts here in the bay area for a heat wave.  

[Probus]

Page 1600.  That is a bunch of comments.  Well done!

[acrashb]

 

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-cause-of-the-crimea-bridge-explosion

If Major Myka Tyry's assessment on the amount of explosives is accurate, score one for team truck.  Since he and I do not exchange Christmas cards, I have no direct knowledge of his credibility but what he's said does make some sense.

Edited October 14, 2022 by acrashb

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of yesterday UKR strike on sugar factory in Russian Oktyabrskiy settlement of Belgorod oblast - there was burning and ammo detonations. Oktyabrskiy is in 11 km from the border NE from UKR Kozacha Lopan' border town. On the video we can see a military camp and place with burned beds - the big tent was here. Russian military bloggers wtrite about losses anong Rosgvardiya unit, deployed here - 3 KIA 14 WIA

Upd. Theese were troops of 49th Rosgvardiya operative purpose brigade from Northern Osetia.  

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-cause-of-the-crimea-bridge-explosion

OK, count me as now being a member of Team Truck   He's finally convinced me.

I still quibble about his dismissal of the missile possibility, especially because he claims Hrim-2 is not operational, but the evidence that it was a truck is strong enough that I’m OK with that.  Especially because the Hrim-2 would have had to strike exactly where the truck was, and absent any other reason to dismiss the truck possibility I think coincidence isn’t strong enough.

This raises the question I've been asking since the beginning... why did Ukraine not choose to bomb the fuel train?  The rails are a higher priority target and lighting off a whole fuel train as it passed over the suspension bridge would have doomed it for good.  That and it should be easier and more assured of success because the amount of explosives needed would be small and the chance of being detected extremely low.

Now that I've come around to the truck cause, and assuming Ukraine did it (I think it's by far the most likely scenario), then we have to consider what this means for Putin's regime security.

While it is true that what Ukraine did is 100% within the rules of war, and therefore not an act of terrorism, it uses the same techniques that terrorists use in terms of planning, materials, and execution.  Which should be disconcerting to Russia because it's hard to defeat even a small group of extremists with the will, imagination, and resources to carry out such attacks, but to defeat an entire nation that has been raped and murdered at the hands of Russia?  Oh boy, that's not a comforting thought.

Whether it was explicitly intended to or not, the truck bomb success signals to Russia that Ukraine has the ability to escalate in their own way.  This should, though I don't know that it will, change some thinking within the Kremlin walls.  If they thought they have seen the worst Ukraine can do to Russia, they should be thinking again.

Steve

[FancyCat]

A good point was made elsewhere, these RU bloggers are usually associated with the FSB as in the case of Igor, or Wagner as with Greyzone, could be the MoD moving to eliminate internal opposition.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

A good point was made elsewhere, these RU bloggers are usually associated with the FSB as in the case of Igor, or Wagner as with Greyzone, could be the MoD moving to eliminate internal opposition.

MoD doesn't have the power to do this sort of thing without Putin's blessing.  Which means Putin might have picked a side.

Steve

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, count me as now being a member of Team Truck   He's finally convinced me.

I still quibble about his dismissal of the missile possibility, especially because he claims Hrim-2 is not operational, but the evidence that it was a truck is strong enough that I’m OK with that.  Especially because the Hrim-2 would have had to strike exactly where the truck was, and absent any other reason to dismiss the truck possibility I think coincidence isn’t strong enough.

This raises the question I've been asking since the beginning... why did Ukraine not choose to bomb the fuel train?  The rails are a higher priority target and lighting off a whole fuel train as it passed over the suspension bridge would have doomed it for good.  That and it should be easier and more assured of success because the amount of explosives needed would be small and the chance of being detected extremely low.

Now that I've come around to the truck cause, and assuming Ukraine did it (I think it's by far the most likely scenario), then we have to consider what this means for Putin's regime security.

While it is true that what Ukraine did is 100% within the rules of war, and therefore not an act of terrorism, it uses the same techniques that terrorists use in terms of planning, materials, and execution.  Which should be disconcerting to Russia because it's hard to defeat even a small group of extremists with the will, imagination, and resources to carry out such attacks, but to defeat an entire nation that has been raped and murdered at the hands of Russia?  Oh boy, that's not a comforting thought.

Whether it was explicitly intended to or not, the truck bomb success signals to Russia that Ukraine has the ability to escalate in their own way.  This should, though I don't know that it will, change some thinking within the Kremlin walls.  If they thought they have seen the worst Ukraine can do to Russia, they should be thinking again.

Steve

Yep, that was my point above. We spend a lot of time parsing Putin's signaling but Ukraine is doing it all the time and with more subtlety. A truck bomb is not something that's hard to bring to Moscow and with support for the war already shaken, it's a very clear statement about what the Kremlin can expect should Putin drop a nuke. That's just one layer, of course. A truck bomb says something else about the ability of Russia to protect key assets, is a further blow to morale in Kherson, illustrates the mismatch between Russian and Ukrainian ingenuity, etc. Even the fact that Ukraine doesn't feel the need to tout exactly what it did and how must have a pretty sinister cast as seen from Russia. 

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Artkin said:

H.I. Sutton just dropped a new video. He didn't reference the Kerch bridge at all but he did recognize those mystery boats we have previously seen as "Explosive Uncrewed Surface Vessels"

Food for thought.

 

Misterious EUSV, being found on the shore near Sevastopol could be UKR experimental device: https://news.usni.org/2022/10/11/suspected-ukrainian-explosive-sea-drone-made-from-jet-ski-parts

One commentator suggested, this USV had a control via Starlink, but because Starlink is not working in Crimea and around, the vessel could lost control and throw ashore itself   

[sross112]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

While it is true that what Ukraine did is 100% within the rules of war, and therefore not an act of terrorism, it uses the same techniques that terrorists use in terms of planning, materials, and execution.  Which should be disconcerting to Russia because it's hard to defeat even a small group of extremists with the will, imagination, and resources to carry out such attacks, but to defeat an entire nation that has been raped and murdered at the hands of Russia?  Oh boy, that's not a comforting thought.

Whether it was explicitly intended to or not, the truck bomb success signals to Russia that Ukraine has the ability to escalate in their own way.  This should, though I don't know that it will, change some thinking within the Kremlin walls.  If they thought they have seen the worst Ukraine can do to Russia, they should be thinking again.

Steve

There were thoughts both ways as to whether an unsuspecting driver or a suicide bomber was used. I believe in one of your posts you questioned the ability of Ukraine to produce suicide bombers. I'm personally in favor of the unsuspecting, but it could be either way. As for suicide bombers I've seen a couple videos now of men who have lost their wives and children to Russian missile attacks. Throw in the rape, torture and kidnapping of relatives throughout the occupied areas and I'd bet strongly there are more than a handful of people that would step forward to take an explosive revenge on Russia even if it means forfeiting their lives. 

We normally equate suicide bombers to religious radicals, and that makes sense as that is predominantly what we've seen for the past several decades. There are many more reasons for making the ultimate sacrifice though and strongest among them would be love, loss and hate. All of which appear to run deep in Ukraine due to this war and the actions of the invaders.

[dan/california]

Translation us below, Mobiks not having a good time. Or much of a life expectancy.

Edited October 14, 2022 by dan/california

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, panzermartin said:

No worries it's Norway, where hitman killer Breivik lives in luxurious prison. Probably better than a russian block apartment. 

Recidivism in Norway is very low. Especially when compared to rates in certain other Western nations. 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

In the category of "we are very lucky they are so F-ing stupid" (not a category designed to narrow things down, I admit) we have this:

Yes, those do appear to be ERA blocks attached to the cab of a truck.

Not entirely sure what he thinks it will do for him.

[chrisl]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, count me as now being a member of Team Truck   He's finally convinced me.

I still quibble about his dismissal of the missile possibility, especially because he claims Hrim-2 is not operational, but the evidence that it was a truck is strong enough that I’m OK with that.  Especially because the Hrim-2 would have had to strike exactly where the truck was, and absent any other reason to dismiss the truck possibility I think coincidence isn’t strong enough.

This raises the question I've been asking since the beginning... why did Ukraine not choose to bomb the fuel train?  The rails are a higher priority target and lighting off a whole fuel train as it passed over the suspension bridge would have doomed it for good.  That and it should be easier and more assured of success because the amount of explosives needed would be small and the chance of being detected extremely low.

Now that I've come around to the truck cause, and assuming Ukraine did it (I think it's by far the most likely scenario), then we have to consider what this means for Putin's regime security.

While it is true that what Ukraine did is 100% within the rules of war, and therefore not an act of terrorism, it uses the same techniques that terrorists use in terms of planning, materials, and execution.  Which should be disconcerting to Russia because it's hard to defeat even a small group of extremists with the will, imagination, and resources to carry out such attacks, but to defeat an entire nation that has been raped and murdered at the hands of Russia?  Oh boy, that's not a comforting thought.

Whether it was explicitly intended to or not, the truck bomb success signals to Russia that Ukraine has the ability to escalate in their own way.  This should, though I don't know that it will, change some thinking within the Kremlin walls.  If they thought they have seen the worst Ukraine can do to Russia, they should be thinking again.

Steve

Bombing a fuel tank car on a train would take less explosive but be harder to hide on the tank car.  Ideally you'd want a two stage explosive inside the tank - one to blow open the car and create a mist, the second to ignite it, like a big FAE.  Many liquid fuels by themselves don't blow up that well in bulk liquid and you have to create a mist.  Maybe it would have been enough to blow open a car and have it start a fire with oil burning all over the bridge (as happened by luck, anyway).

Hiding it in the truck is easy: You put it in a big crate, fill out a shipping form, and leave it on the loading dock.

And it had the effect of shutting down the bridge, even without destroying it - they got Russia to shut it down and create a big mess for getting into/out of Crimea via Kerch.

And as @billbindcpoints out - there's some pretty good messaging in there for Russia, too.  Before the invasion I was n the "they'll roll over Ukraine in 3 days and it will be 10 years of Afghanistan before they leave" camp.  Had that happened, basically all of Ukraine's attacks would be looking like this now.  Instead they sent a message that's almost like the laws of thermodynamics: a) You can't win b) even if you think you can fight to a draw, you lose, c) You can't quit if we don't let you.

Edited October 14, 2022 by chrisl

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, panzermartin said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html

Musk seems put starlink on free trial and now it expires, someone will need to pay. It's too good to let go though, so I think eventually his terms will be accepted. 

Except the actual story linked says: 

“Though Musk has received widespread acclaim and thanks for responding to requests for Starlink service to Ukraine right as the war was starting, in reality, the vast majority of the 20,000 terminals have received full or partial funding from outside sources, including the US government, the UK and Poland, according to the SpaceX letter to the Pentagon.

SpaceX’s request that the US military foot the bill has rankled top brass at the Pentagon, with one senior defense official telling CNN that SpaceX has “the gall to look like heroes” while having others pay so much and now presenting them with a bill for tens of millions per month. 

According to the SpaceX figures shared with the Pentagon, about 85% of the 20,000 terminals in Ukraine were paid – or partially paid – for by countries like the US and Poland or other entities. Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity, which SpaceX says costs $4,500 each month per unit for the most advanced service.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html