How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

41 minutes ago, lerxster said:

 

https://twitter.com/CaptainBlackSe1/status/1580099332048826368?s=20&t=oKNCH7pU4G3_R28qge2QKA

Maybe it's an accurate x-ray and the second rear axle is a dummy so it looks like a heavier truck than it really is?

[dan/california]

They might as well add the SBU to the conference call...

[chrisl]

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

FSB continuing the long and well established track record of not noticing, or perhaps caring, about the details. [edit, or in reality it is the more established track record of a faked and/or inaccurately portrayed social media post!  Anyway, my points below are still valid]

As this came in while posting my above comment, I'll add a follow up here.  Even when the Russians are not lying about the big picture, they will like like crazy about the details in order to show they have "solved" the situation.  Put another way, it might have been a truck bomb and when reviewing the X-ray scans they saw the truck was transporting this:

They think "gee, that's embarrassing!  We should have caught that!  Let's grab the scan of some other truck and show that there was nothing obviously wrong with the cargo".

Or it could be "let's look at the scans.  What?  Yuri disconnected the drive and has been using it to download his porn?  That doesn't look good to not have an image 'cuz we're supposed to be competent.  OK, hook the drive back up and we'll grab a scan from the next similar truck and use that".

This is the problem with Russia... even when they are telling the truth about something they lie SO MUCH AND SO OBVIOUSLY that you really just can't ever be too sure about anything they do.

Steve

That's obviously not a real bomb.  It doesn't say "Acme" on it.

[billbindc]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

While I generally agree with this (I should, since I was making this point myself!), there is one other thing to consider.

Russia usually denies something uncomfortable, which wasn't feasible in this case as the bridge destruction was obvious.  The next step is to "solve" the complex crimes faster than procedural cop shows to show that they are at least really efficient at dealing with the problem that they weren't able to prevent.  If the truth runs contrary to their desired narrative or is too difficult to "solve" quickly, then they lie and fake whatever is necessary to sell the lie (even if only idiot Russians buy it).  If the initial lie doesn't achieve the desired effect, they will shift their position as much and as many times as necessary to get people to move onto something else.

This is standard Russian practice.

If this was a missile they would lie about it, for sure.  If it were a boat/sub (which it wasn't), they would lie about that as it's almost as bad as a missile.  Truck bomb?  Well, if it really was a truck that is probably the most acceptable story for them and it would come with at least some real evidence they wouldn't need to fake.

In short, if it really was a truck bomb then I'd expect Russia to not lie about the cause, though I would expect them to lie about everything after.  The Russian government seems to never waste an opportunity to lie, even when they don't need to.

Steve

One thing about the truck bomb SVBIED theory is that should it prove to be true, it's chilling statement of where Ukraine's willing to go. Should Russia drop a nuke, Kyiv is saying that Russia can expect this sort of thing in Moscow. And given the FSB's signal intelligence failures to start the war and it's failure since to competently track down Dugina's killers, it's a message that will resonate in the Kremlin. It's easy to concentrate on Russia's nuclear signaling but we should never lose sight of how Ukraine signals back.

[Der Zeitgeist]

8 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Maybe it's an accurate x-ray and the second rear axle is a dummy so it looks like a heavier truck than it really is?

The Russian story is that this truck (the one that was x-rayed) wasn't the one that eventually exploded on the bridge, but the one that was used to bring the explosives to Russia.

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Mattias]

Ok team, what is your take on this. 

 

I was listening to the "The Daily" podcast of today, under the headline "A Bridge, a Bomb and Putin's revenge" from the New York Times. Normally I only listen to them for US internal political issues, but I made an exception. When the 10th of October retaliatory attacks were discussed, there was some gnashing of teeth and doomsday talk about the potential impact on the Ukrainian moral. Not overly much, but well in line with many of the ill-informed and nervous ”maybe we should try for peace instead crowd”. That made me think… What actually did happen on the 10th, and how bad was it really?

 

Sure Lives were lost, people were most probably crippled and definitely traumatized for life – Horrible injury incurred.

But was it a majestic reaction from the war gods of the east, taking their toll for the Ukrainian insolence of bombing the Crimean bridge?

 

I made a rough calculation:

  
83 missiles (Kh 101, Kh 555, Kalibr, Iskander, S-300 and Torndo S) were supposedly used, as well as 17 Shahid UAV. 

The average warhead size of these weapons is 324 kg, for a total mass of 32 400 kg.

Out of these, 43 were reportedly shot down, reducing the mass delivered by 13 932 kg

For a total of 18 468 kg

As I understand it, that is the equivalent of the bomb load of three (3) A-10 warthogs – if you consider that bombs probably weigh more than missile warheads.

3 single seat attack aircraft worth of ordnance… Is that a massive response to a strategic attack on the jugular of the southern front? 

3 single seat attack aircraft worth of ordnance… Will even the sustained attack of such a force do anything to dent the moral/cohesion/effectiveness/capacity of the Ukrainian nation?

On both account, I think not. Especially since the best of russian missile technology seem to be less accurate than even dumb bombs dropped by an A-10.

Furthermore, I saw somewhere that the total shelf cost for the 10 October attack was 350 million $. Is that money well spent? 

All things considered, Putin certainly managed to catch the headlines… Putting the perceived russian military might back on the agenda. But almost completely unjustified, it seems to me…

 

So, what are your thoughts, have I misunderstood this? Should Putin's gestures have anyone really shaking in their boots?

[Letter from Prague]

Nice ferry you have there. Would be a shame if something happened to it.

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-ambassadors-annual-conference-2022-opening-speech-high-representative-josep-borrell_en

Read it, read the whole thing, then ponder what I said a few posts ago about how it would be good to increase ammo production.

That is a remarkable speech.  Borrell is trying to shock everyone, with blunt statements, into having an adult discussion.  

I hope it works.  Contrast Borrell's speech with last year's, somewhat self-congratulatory and focussed mostly on non-existential issues: Address by President Charles Michel to the annual EU Ambassadors’ conference - Consilium (europa.eu)

I don't know how, but somehow Borrell's positions need to become entrenched.

Edited October 12, 2022 by acrashb

[chrisl]

ok, I'm going to turn down the snark...(no,  don't believe it was a fake second wheelset on the truck) 

If we assume that the FSB didn't get the idea for the blame (legit shipment with a valid shipper) from my posts here over the past couple days, Russia now has what can be called a "TSA Problem" only worse.

They have to check every shipment that's going across the bridge for explosives, and they have to do it like they mean it: no liquids, laptops out of bags, shoes off, pants down, bend over, the whole thing.  

But there's a catch: they need to ship enormous quantities of explosives across the bridge to support the Special Military Operation.

So now (as before), some of the explosives going across the bridge are legitimate, and some may not be.  And some of the "bad" explosives have good papers.  And even some of the good explosives with good papers might have special "gifts" that someone snuck in to turn them into bad explosives.  And they have the same problem with all the oil tank cars - someone could drop a two-stage bomb into one and turn it into an FAE on the bridge.

Or they can be Russian about it and not do all that, and suffer another explosion or three on the bridge.

So even without the whole bridge going down, losing one lane to a truck bomb does almost the same thing, but it makes them do it to themselves, just like the lines at the TSA.

(FWIW: I've long maintained that neither the shoe bomber nor underpants bomber were supposed to explode.  Each of them may have thought so, but whoever set them up was just triggering the TSA to do more intrusive things.)

[akd]

Clearer view of the road surface damage at the edge of the blast site on the Kerch bridge:

 

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

Do not underestimate how loony tunes the budget fight is likely to be:

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/29/debt-limit-republicans-house

Yes, absolutely, but still when it comes to Foreign Policy, Biden (and every US president, including Herr Orangeface) have a lot of latitude and financial resources to draw in. Overseas is very much the President's (rather than Congress's) playground. 

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yes, absolutely, but still when it comes to Foreign Policy, Biden (and every US president, including Herr Orangeface) have a lot of latitude and financial resources to draw in. Overseas is very much the President's (rather than Congress's) playground. 

I agree in normal times. When the House GOP crashes the government budget and economy because it wants to end Social Security, we are not in normal times. That is their avowed plan. After all we've been through here, it's foolish to be complacent. 

Happy to take this to DM, btw, so as to not divert further from the main topic.

Edited October 12, 2022 by billbindc

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It gets tiring to compare Russia to Nazi Germany, but as the saying goes "if the shoe fits, wear it!"

The Waffen SS started out having to source its own equipment from outside of standard military supplies.  Anything that was standard kit was done through negotiations.  This is why early units were armed with a wide array of foreign contract and, later, captured kit. 

This was changed a couple of years into the war where the WSS drew down from standard Whermacht stocks.  Initially they weren't shown great favoritism, but as the war dragged on this changed as the political value increased.  After the July bomb plot WSS gained even more clout.  As the pool of volunteers shrank they were even afforded preferential selection of conscripts.

As the war wound down, Himmler was in nominal command of a large segment of Germany's better armed and mobile forces.  At the very end, Himmler was put in command of non-WSS forces on a massive scale.

In fact, let's remember that Hitler allowed for three conflicting ground forces; Heer, Waffen SS, and Luftwaffe.  In Russia's case it is PMCs, LPR, DPR, Volunteer battalions (under Army control, but still not pure Army), and the regular Army.  I exclude Marines as they are a fairly standard deviation from unified commands.

Historians point to this and say "wow, that was really a bad idea" and yet Putin is doing exactly the same thing.  I think it's pretty clear that the results are also similar.

Steve

Not quite the same - Himmler had nothing like the military intent or acumen of Prigozhin. He was a technocrat, stuffed in an over-tight uniform. I don't believe the average Waffen SS would have died for Himmler himself, personally; where as we have recorded conversations of Wagnerites declaring specifically for Prigozhin over Putin. For an autocrat to have one of his more effective military forces developing a loyalty complex away from the Supreme Leader strikes me as very dangerous (for the SL).

WSS had a clear ideology, very distinctly found, formed and tied to Hitler personally. He was its emotional and ideological center of gravity. Himmler had operational control, but Hitler had trumps when it came to loyalty. 

Its this difference that I'm highlighting - that Hitler created competing factions and armed forces (as all autocrats do), but all within a deep ideological framework that Hitler himself conceived, developed, controlled and directly lead. Putin doesnt have that, his state "ideology" is more a vague blend of general nationalism and inferiority complex overcompensation, which itslef seems to be in the process of being co-opted by more extreme elements in RUS society; by contrast Hitler was the extreme of the extremists - there was no one further "out there" than him, which meant he could not be ideologically out-maneuvered.

But Putin seems to be chasing the approval of certain power centers and ideological strands in Russian society, rather than creating and defining the framework for everyone else to stay within. He's great at creating legal and beauracratic trickery to keep everyone in place, but at somepoint the ideological fanatics just wont care for that stuff. He's a spy, an inside man, a "system of systems" guy. Hitler was an outsider, highly emotional and extremely imaginative, with a very charged personality that motivated others around him and fundamentally infused his ideology. Putin does not have that charisma or energy - and I'm at the point where I think Putin is extremely vulnerable to a charismatic, ideologically "pure" (and younger!) rival emerging from this disastrous war of his own creation.

I could easily see Wagner mercs fighting off any attempt by the FSB to arrest or mess with Prigozhin. The WSS would never, ever have gone against Hitler in favour of Himmler.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Kinophile

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I agree in normal times. When the House GOP crashes the government budget and economy because it wants to end Social Security, we are not in normal times. That is their avowed plan. After all we've been through here, it's foolish to be complacent. 

Happy to take this to DM, btw, so as to not divert further from the main topic.

Please DM... cause I am getting close to medicare time and I don't need the stress.  

[Der Zeitgeist]

51 minutes ago, Mattias said:

What actually did happen on the 10th, and how bad was it really?

(...)

So, what are your thoughts, have I misunderstood this? Should Putin's gestures have anyone really shaking in their boots?

The way I see it:

Russia thinks it now found a way to pull an "Allied Force" on Ukraine, so to speak. If you look at Russian channels, all they speak about the last few days is the Ukrainian power grid, and which parts of it they already managed to take out.

I guess the plan is simple: Turn off the lights and heat in Ukraine so they have to sue for peace during the winter.

Will it work? I guess it comes down to how robust the Ukrainian energy and heating grid is, if the Ukrainians (and the West) can manage to improve air defenses further, and how many cruise missiles Russia still has to keep up their air campaign.

[mosuri]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

They might as well add the SBU to the conference call...

Well, you can run digitally encrypted communications over a radio link using even an ancient radio -- whether they do or not is another matter of course.

[Billy Ringo]

5 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

The way I see it:

Russia thinks it now found a way to pull an "Allied Force" on Ukraine, so to speak. If you look at Russian channels, all they speak about the last few days is the Ukrainian power grid, and which parts of it they already managed to take out.

I guess the plan is simple: Turn off the lights and heat in Ukraine so they have to sue for peace during the winter.

Will it work? I guess it comes down to how robust the Ukrainian energy and heating grid is, if the Ukrainians (and the West) can manage to improve air defenses further, and how many cruise missiles Russia still has to keep up their air campaign.

Two can play at this game.  And my money is on the Ukrainians to more rapidly and efficiently restore power.  Not to mention have more access to replacement/repair parts which could become a major issue if Russia is dependent on western sourced supplies.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/major-fire-breaks-out-at-power-substation-in-russia-s-belgorod-ukraine-war-50276055.html

Edited October 12, 2022 by Billy Ringo
added info

[Twisk]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Given the vast amount of T-72s around the world it is rather interesting that they are refurbishing T-62s.

I guess that Russia has modern equipment sitting around. I get feeling that Russia is both fighting desperately in Ukraine using whatever scraps that can be found but also fighting with a hand tied behind their back. War of choice and they will retain some amount of key combat equipment in RUssia proper for "imperial guard" troops at least.

I was surprised to see 3rd army (forget name exactly) be supplied with BMP-3 for this reason.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Holy crap.  I wonder what percentage of Russia's private sector transport is tied up trying to get into/out of Crimea?

And that gets me thinking of a knock-on effect of the bridge damage.  Russia is, fundamentally, a free market economy.  Dysfunctional, inefficient, intruded on by government to an extent an American libertarian would commit suicide, but still following the basics of supply and demand decision making.

If I am in the business of transporting goods, either for my own products or for hire, someone is going to have to pay for my truck being utilized for 6-8 days beyond whatever time it takes to get to and from Crimea.  Costs of everything in Crimea just went through the roof.  And if a customer in Crimea isn't willing to pay what I ask, then I'll find someone else to sell it to.  Scarcity of just about everything just became a thing again for Crimeans.

Steve

[lerxster]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap.  I wonder what percentage of Russia's private sector transport is tied up trying to get into/out of Crimea?

And that gets me thinking of a knock-on effect of the bridge damage.  Russia is, fundamentally, a free market economy.  Dysfunctional, inefficient, intruded on by government to an extent an American libertarian would commit suicide, but still following the basics of supply and demand decision making.

If I am in the business of transporting goods, either for my own products or for hire, someone is going to have to pay for my truck being utilized for 6-8 days beyond whatever time it takes to get to and from Crimea.  Costs of everything in Crimea just went through the roof.  And if a customer in Crimea isn't willing to pay what I ask, then I'll find someone else to sell it to.  Scarcity of just about everything just became a thing again for Crimeans.

Steve

Crexit? #GrabsCoat

[Taranis]

Agreement reached between the Twenty-Seven for the creation of a training mission for the Ukrainian army

Quote

 

The twenty-seven member states of the European Union (EU) have agreed to the organization of a major military mission to train Ukrainian forces in several member states, Agence France-Presse has learned from diplomatic sources, Wednesday.

This training mission project was announced in August by the head of European diplomacy , Josep Borrell, who felt that such a mission should be "up to the task" of the conflict in Ukraine. “A conventional war which mobilizes extraordinarily large means and hundreds of thousands of soldiers” , he underlined.

The agreement was concluded on Wednesday by the ambassadors of the Twenty-Seven in Brussels and will be adopted during the meeting of foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday. It provides for a headquarters for the mission and training centers in each member state which organizes them. Poland and Germany have made their availability known, according to two diplomats.

“  Initially  ”, the mission, which will be financed by the endowment of the European Facility for Peace (EFF), should make it possible to train fifteen thousand Ukrainian soldiers. The Twenty-Seven have already allocated 2.5 billion euros from the 5.7 billion endowment to finance arms deliveries to Ukraine and a new tranche should be released on Monday.

 

Source : Le Monde

"A Ukrainian soldier fires an American-made MK-19 automatic grenade launcher towards Russian positions less than 800 meters away on a front line near Toretsk on October 12, 2022. DAVE CLARK/AFP"
* Note : The gunner wears a French bulletproof vest (old model) (desert camo variant !)


"Ukrainian soldiers in a bunker on a front line near Toretsk, October 12, 2022. YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP"
* Note : The bearded soldier wears a French bulletproof vest (old model) (desert camo variant !). Seems the same guy of the previous picture.


"A Ukrainian soldier in a bunker, near Toretsk, October 12, 2022. YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP"


"Ukrainian soldiers on a front line near Toretsk, October 12, 2022. YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP"
* In the middle, the same bearded guy from previously

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Mattias said:

Ok team, what is your take on this. 

 

I was listening to the "The Daily" podcast of today, under the headline "A Bridge, a Bomb and Putin's revenge" from the New York Times. Normally I only listen to them for US internal political issues, but I made an exception. When the 10th of October retaliatory attacks were discussed, there was some gnashing of teeth and doomsday talk about the potential impact on the Ukrainian moral. Not overly much, but well in line with many of the ill-informed and nervous ”maybe we should try for peace instead crowd”. That made me think… What actually did happen on the 10th, and how bad was it really?

 

Sure Lives were lost, people were most probably crippled and definitely traumatized for life – Horrible injury incurred.

But was it a majestic reaction from the war gods of the east, taking their toll for the Ukrainian insolence of bombing the Crimean bridge?

 

I made a rough calculation:

  
83 missiles (Kh 101, Kh 555, Kalibr, Iskander, S-300 and Torndo S) were supposedly used, as well as 17 Shahid UAV. 

The average warhead size of these weapons is 324 kg, for a total mass of 32 400 kg.

Out of these, 43 were reportedly shot down, reducing the mass delivered by 13 932 kg

For a total of 18 468 kg

As I understand it, that is the equivalent of the bomb load of three (3) A-10 warthogs – if you consider that bombs probably weigh more than missile warheads.

3 single seat attack aircraft worth of ordnance… Is that a massive response to a strategic attack on the jugular of the southern front? 

3 single seat attack aircraft worth of ordnance… Will even the sustained attack of such a force do anything to dent the moral/cohesion/effectiveness/capacity of the Ukrainian nation?

On both account, I think not. Especially since the best of russian missile technology seem to be less accurate than even dumb bombs dropped by an A-10.

Furthermore, I saw somewhere that the total shelf cost for the 10 October attack was 350 million $. Is that money well spent? 

All things considered, Putin certainly managed to catch the headlines… Putting the perceived russian military might back on the agenda. But almost completely unjustified, it seems to me…

 

So, what are your thoughts, have I misunderstood this? Should Putin's gestures have anyone really shaking in their boots?

That's a good way of thinking about it.  And when we consider that Russia carpet bombed civilian areas in Syria and Chechnya into rubble, it's really shows how little the Kremlin can do compared to what they would like to do.  Which is why nukes need to be kept in mind.

As for the investment by Russia, it's terrible.  They've redoubled the world's sympathy towards Ukraine, Ukraine seems more pissed than scared, nobody takes Russia's PGMs seriously, and it was also extremely expensive.  Those PGMs are not going to be replaced any time soon.

That's the whole thing about the types of missiles they used.  These are tactical strike missiles.  Even in large quantities they don't achieve much more than causing damage to what they hit.  And if all they can hit or shoppers and people asleep in their beds, then tactically they are useless.

Steve

[Haiduk]

BTR-4MV1 in service. First time it was spotted as far as in June. This is demonstrator, belonging to Morozov Design Bureau, manufactured for offering to Peru

Edited October 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Clearer view of the road surface damage at the edge of the blast site on the Kerch bridge:

 

Along with some nice details to help Ukraine do better next time.