How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

UKR troops also advanced today in Luhansk oblast. The head of military-civil administratin of Luhansk oblast Haidai claimed six villages are liberated, but we have evidences of one or two:

Hrekivka

 

And some abandoned positions with writing Makeyevka (in Russian spelling), but there is no video with UKR troos in Makiivka village

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

USA and Israel both are doing the same in peace time. We are at real war. Either what allowed to Yupiter is not allowed to the bull? %)

Our resistance/SOF/SBU assasinate non-combatant collaborators and traitors on occupied territories. So, we have to expect some looses because of this? But the war never holds in white gloves. 

Western experts didn't take seriously many things even after Munich spech of Putin, even war in Georgia. Main mistake of westren experts - they tried to fit Russia into western rationalism. This is not working.    

Personally, I have no issue with Ukraine targeting folks in Russia.  However not sure I'd consider this mission successful.  The target was missed   

This is a war and Ukraine has been fighting it with a ridiculous degree of caution.  While I think that in the long run that helps Ukraine maintain a higher degree of international support, it still bugs me that the Russian side of the border isn't facing more disruption.

[Haiduk]

LDPR also reportedly have minimal advance - in Pisky-Pervomaiske DPR forces have some small progress, also LPR  troops, reinforced by Russian former jailed, seized a hill in Soledar area on Bakhmut direction.

From talks on Lostarmor, Russian jailed are enlisting not only to PMC, but also for reinforcements of LDPR units. In some brigades a company of "zeks" ("zek" - Russian slang name of jailed) attacjed to frontline battalions as assault resourse. But this source says, "zeks", enlisted in PMC has not good reputation and combat capabilities, also there was already incidents when PMC commanders shot out "zeks" for crimes and defiance

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

RU claims they started counter-attack and captured Dibrove

Thanks. I made a map 20 KM to the north that I am playing around on using CMBS.

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

I suppose, the tank ran over the mine - at 0:22 as if you can see hanging track

Good catch @Haiduk!

[Haiduk]

Last night strike on Kherson - "Ninel" hotel was hit, reportedly, but unconfirmed, seven FSB officers dead

@sburke

Also 29th or 30th Sep HIMARS missile hit a cottadge in Kherson, where lived deputy of security of military-civil oblast administration Aleksey Katerinichev - he was former officer of FSB Border Guard srvice and retired colonel of State Emergency Service. I don't know to count him or not.

 

[Haiduk]

This is likely very good anti-dron rifles, because the same could catch not only civil DJI, but special military drone:

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

Not sure the Dugina story resurfacing is a big deal anyhow, the battlefield shifting is much more compelling for news to report on. I'm personally not concerned about her death, her sayings are horrid and genocidal, and so are those of her father, Russia deserves to get reminded that Moscow isn't some walled off zone from the rest of the world, and incitement to hatred is certainly actionable for violence to be undertaken in certain circumstances. 

Still don't think they would expend their assets on such a low level target unless it was designed to threaten Russia with worse if needed. 

 

 

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

@sburke

Also 29th or 30th Sep HIMARS missile hit a cottadge in Kherson, where lived deputy of security of military-civil oblast administration Aleksey Katerinichev - he was former officer of FSB Border Guard srvice and retired colonel of State Emergency Service. I don't know to count him or not.

 

when in doubt I just put them on with all your notes. 

[poesel]

48 minutes ago, Huba said:

So have anyone run into a more detailed description of these? I heard of claimed range of up to 1000km, but I assume there's no man in the loop then, and drones just kamikaze themselves using GPS/INS? In any case, these will be a rather hard to defend from. Perhaps locally, a modern mast-mounted radar and active-homing missiles should do the trick, like in case of IRIS-T and hopefully the incoming NASAMS. Hardly cost effective though  I guess EW is not worth much here, maybe some GPS spoofing ?

I try again: does anyone know what happened to these AA systems?
Same timeframe as the Gepard, but easier to handle (that's what I get from the German description). There should be enough of those mothballed in various armies. Not state of the art, but good enough and cheap.

The English version is more about the rocket, the German more about the system:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_(missile)
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_(Waffensystem)

[sburke]

Vladimir Putin reportedly crafted a hit list: 'Those who are with us will be fine and the rest we will kill' (msn.com)

 

Hey what a coincidence.  We have a list too!

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

USA and Israel both are doing the same in peace time. We are at real war. Either what allowed to Yupiter is not allowed to the bull? %)

Never said this, you have all moral right to defend yourself. Executing collaborators in Ukrainian mainland is part of this  very unpleasant reality of partisan warfare. But assassination campaign deep inside Russia against targets of rather vauge responsibility like propagandists or nat-celebrities (there were much better targets directly involved in atrocities, if SBU wanted to send a message or revenge Olenivka massacre) is very odd course of action. High risk of failure and capture, huge chances for collateral damage (like in this case), possibility for PR catastrophy and for the effect of what...giving Russian nationalists more heroes to cherish ? Really don't get this logic.

Also mind US and Israeli strikes abroad are usually made on internationally designated terrorists, but still are very controversial and dubious from legal point of view.

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Western experts didn't take seriously many things even after Munich spech of Putin, even war in Georgia. Main mistake of westren experts - they tried fit Russia into western rationalism. This is not working.    

True to an extent, but it still does not prove that Dugin had some huge influences on Russian way of thinking. Many non-western scholars including Russian ones would tell you just that. Eurasianism was and is a nichee ideology even among Russian right wingers.

I am very interested what @Battlefront.com will think about this, as we spend a lot of time here discussing this case.

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, poesel said:

I try again: does anyone know what happened to these AA systems?

You can't put in each town AA-gun near townhall, barracks, railroad station, powerline object etc. Also during  night attacks guns w/o radars useless. As I told here even for frontline purpose we have defficite in 400 Zu-23-2.

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Yes, it is a very strange claim. RU claim that they stopped all attacks, but UKR claim they liberated a few villages. Guess we need to wait till morning. 

There's an new entry in Rybar, a summary of sorts, that says (autotranslated): 

Quote

2022 The Armed Forces of Ukraine acted according to the already proven tactics of using assault groups on off-road armored vehicles to probe the defense of Russian troops at the junction of the defending units. The enemy takes full advantage of the sparsity of the defensive formations of the Russian troops. In all three areas, the cannon and rocket artillery of the RF Armed Forces fired massively at the advancing forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ultimately forcing them to retreat.

Despite the successful reflection of the attack, all intelligence signs point to an imminent attempt at a massive offensive. Relatively weak reconnaissance in force was carried out today.

In the coming days, the Ukrainian command will regroup its forces (a tank unit has already arrived in Belogorka) and continue to push through the defensive lines of the Russian Armed Forces.

And you should be ready for this.

Which means that renewed UA strike is about to start, or is underway already. The mentioned Bilohirka is located near Davidyv Brid - I wonder if they will strike along the road at Berislav? Or try to roll RU positions at Inhulets towards Shihurivka, and then roll south? 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Huba

[Calamine Waffles]

Is this cultural imperialism?

[Sikel]

30 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Not sure the Dugina story resurfacing is a big deal anyhow, the battlefield shifting is much more compelling for news to report on. I'm personally not concerned about her death, her sayings are horrid and genocidal, and so are those of her father, Russia deserves to get reminded that Moscow isn't some walled off zone from the rest of the world, and incitement to hatred is certainly actionable for violence to be undertaken in certain circumstances. 

Still don't think they would expend their assets on such a low level target unless it was designed to threaten Russia with worse if needed. 

 

 

Listen, I found a very interesting thread on Twitter here.
Here, the journalist posted his "mini-investigation".
Apparently, Prigozhin's people are starting a PR campaign against the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
 

 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Sikel said:

Apparently, Prigozhin's people are starting a PR campaign against the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

And are being countered:

 

[cesmonkey]

24 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

True to an extent, but it still does not prove that Dugin had some huge influences on Russian way of thinking.

Is there anyone in Russia today that would be equivalent to Joseph Goebbels in the Third Reich? 

If so, I could see them being considered as a legitimate target.

[Beleg85]

16 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Is there anyone in Russia today that would be equivalent to Joseph Goebbels in the Third Reich? 

Not one persona but rather collection of lower figures. Margarita Simonyan run many propaganda projects for Putin, including starting RT. Solovyev is one of more nasty persons around. Also hosts of various shows like Skabaieva (a hideous woman with not less terrible hairdress) serve daily dose of propaganda for Russians.

But it is hard to mark one person of significance similar to Goebbels in Third Reich, who, beside running propaganda, was serious political figure on his own. They are more like technocrats of modern media than figures of true influence. Certainly assassinating some popular talk-show host (however pathetic human being him be) would bring Ukrainians nothing except extra outrage of Russian public and even more support for "Special Operation". There is a different story with hardcore Nats and people directly responsible for atrocities, of course.

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

And are being countered:

Extremely interesting developments inside Russian power structure, if only because so rarely political infights go beyond walls of Kremlin. Probably Putin will soon need serious scapegoats from high military command.

Edited October 5, 2022 by Beleg85

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Aside from saving your life, trenches and pits are actually pretty cosy places to hang out. Total PITA to dig, but once you've done the mahi they're gold.

Edit: but yeah, I do get the instinctive "nope!" when looking from the outside in

The trench I'm fine, totally.  But no ****ing way am I going under earth that dense and heavy with only a tiny mousehole to escape.  Also, that hole is at floor level,  so first heavy rain that cozy little death trap is gonna flood. 

[dan/california]

38 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The trench I'm fine, totally.  But no ****ing way am I going under earth that dense and heavy with only a tiny mousehole to escape.  Also, that hole is at floor level,  so first heavy rain that cozy little death trap is gonna flood. 

It is all about relative risk, If it is raining shrapnel other things become less relevant. And that design might provide a fair bit of blast protection unless the shell is so close your bleeped anyway. The hole might have some supports in it, didn't get a look. Yes, rain is a problem, but the idea is to live that long and then figure it out all over again.

Edited October 5, 2022 by dan/california

[Kinophile]

Oh I get the purpose but nope nopity nope no. 

Until the first shell lands near this armchair warrior,  I'm sure... 

[FancyCat]

57 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Never said this, you have all moral right to defend yourself. Executing collaborators in Ukrainian mainland is part of this  very unpleasant reality of partisan warfare. But assassination campaign deep inside Russia against targets of rather vauge responsibility like propagandists or nat-celebrities (there were much better targets directly involved in atrocities, if SBU wanted to send a message or revenge Olenivka massacre) is very odd course of action. High risk of failure and capture, huge chances for collateral damage (like in this case), possibility for PR catastrophy and for the effect of what...giving Russian nationalists more heroes to cherish ? Really don't get this logic.

For all the incompetence of Russia, I don't think the Russians internal security services are such that would let more important targets get killed, so I strongly don't see a reason for killing her unless it was intended as a message to not dare target senior Ukrainian officials, as once you kill them, security gets tighten down and the intel and assets in Russia need to be quiet for risk of being discovered. 

The actual risky action with the potential to spin out of control and escalate the conflict, would have been Ukraine targeting a high-ranking Russian official or a Russian government building in Moscow. Certainly if we believe the reports, the political and military command of the Ukrainian government have been targeted previously. If Ukraine really wanted to ensure Russia didn't continue targeting their senior personnel, but not risk Russian need to escalate in response to their message to knock it off, certainly Dugina qualifies. 

If Ukraine did it. I'm still very suspicious of how Russia uncovered the perpetrator. Certainly, if these new reports of Russian infighting pan out, I can totally believe the Russian elite are knifing each other for various reasons like the RU nats being told to stop criticizing Putin or etc, etc. 

[dan/california]

Clearly looking to envelope Svatove if this map has any bearing on reality.

[RockinHarry]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

I try again: does anyone know what happened to these AA systems?
Same timeframe as the Gepard, but easier to handle (that's what I get from the German description). There should be enough of those mothballed in various armies. Not state of the art, but good enough and cheap.

The English version is more about the rocket, the German more about the system:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_(missile)
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_(Waffensystem)

Asked that one before and nobody knows apparently. None has been seen beeing used in UKR in media, but neither has been the Gepard...yet. Its combat worthiness in 2022 might be doubtful maybe, but the Wiki info I found fairly interesting.

Combat use

On 1 June 1982, during the Falklands War, Sea Harrier XZ456 was destroyed south of Stanley, by a Roland launched by members of the Argentine Army's GADA 601 (601st AA Artillery Group).^[17] The launcher, one of four examples delivered to Argentina, was later captured in fairly intact condition by the British around Port Stanley after the surrender. It was taken back to Britain as a valuable prize and studied in detail.^{[citation needed]}

At around 11:00PM on the 17th of January, 1991, an A-6E TRAM Intruder from VA-35, AA-510 (BuNo 161668), crewed by Lt. Bob Wetzel and Lt. Jeff Zaun was attacked by two Rolands while attacking the H-3 Airfield in Western Iraq. The Roland didn't set off the American built RWRs, meaning that it was hard to detect. After evading the first Roland, another one (which the crew didn't see), impacted the aircraft. The crew successfully ejected but were soon captured.^[15] On 19 January 1991, during the Gulf War a RAF Panavia Tornado GR.1 ZA396/GE, on a SEAD mission against the Iraqi air base at Tallil, was destroyed by a Roland. Both crew members ejected successfully, were taken prisoner and survived the war. The destruction of at least one USAF A-10 Thunderbolt destroyed at around the same time, was later attributed to a Roland,^[18] by the Pentagon.

 

Even if its AA capabilities is fairly worthless nowadays I´d assume at least the chassis (IFV or truck) could benefit UKR forces mobility. Strip off the AA stuff and have some IFV or armored carrier again.