Battlefront.com Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Encouraging news out of the US: The US Intel has been exceptional in this war so far. It is good to see them not seeing anything frightening. Yet. However, there is enough unease within the government that I do think they caught wind of something and have since decided it wasn't a real immediate threat Oh, like two high level Russian government officials getting a call intercepted where they talked about nukes, but subsequently decided they were just shooting their mouths off. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Encouraging news out of the US: The US Intel has been exceptional in this war so far. It is good to see them not seeing anything frightening. Yet. However, there is enough unease within the government that I do think they caught wind of something and have since decided it wasn't a real immediate threat Oh, like two high level Russian government officials getting a call intercepted where they talked about nukes, but subsequently decided they were just shooting their mouths off. Steve There was a shift noted of a few Russian nuclear capable bombers moving up near Finland in one article I saw. 'Irregular presence' of nuclear-capable Russian bombers detected near Finland (msn.com) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Wenman Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 pretty raw stuff https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/ blog post from here 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taranis Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 "During Vladimir Putin's annexation speech, in Luhansk, Ukraine, September 30, 2022. AP" *They don't seem very numerous for people who voted more than 90% to join Russia. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, Taranis said: "During Vladimir Putin's annexation speech, in Luhansk, Ukraine, September 30, 2022. AP" *They don't seem very numerous for people who voted more than 90% to join Russia. Typical use of the admin resource to create the desired image. Administrative resource is when the heads of state institutions and enterprises order their subordinates to attend the event. Otherwise, deprivation of bonuses, dismissals and other punishments may follow. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H1nd Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Thanks for your analysis. I found it quite an interesting read. To summarize your analysis, you feel Russia is going to fight more deliberately and effectively now that it's forced to. Lyman being an example of this. The primary intention is to rebuild and reinforce units on the eastern bank of the Oskil, stall the Ukrainian offensive (or have the weather do it!), build new defensive positions, and try to hold Ukraine there. This all sounds like what the Russians are planning on doing, but I'm not sure that they can. The major reason is manpower, which is something we have to completely guess at. The question, therefore, is how much of the 1st GTA still exists? It seems the answer is "not much". That's a big problem as this was the backbone of the defense of the entire area. From what I've seen in OSINT world, the 1st GTA was badly depleted even before the offensive kicked it out of its positions. As you stated, a lot of their heavy and specialized equipment was left behind. You also state that the 144th GMRD was badly mauled during the Kharkiv offensive. Some OSINT I've seen has it effectively written off as a combat capable unit. Not due to equipment as much as personnel. The next question is about the LPR manpower status. Putting aside whatever they are about to lose in Lyman, the OSINT on these units is not favorable. Months of heavy losses has reduced their capabilities significantly, in some ways made worse by waves of unwilling mobilized men being forced into service. ISW assesses that the inevitable and totally predictable has happened... LPR doesn't have any combat aged and conditioned men to throw into the fight any more. On top of this, it appears that the Russian forces have lost a lot of men defending Lyman and they are about to lose a lot more in the conclusion of the fight. The untrained Mobiks and limited BARS forces, plus whatever 3rd Army Corps units can be scraped together, is not apparently helping much. What I sense is that Russia's manpower shortage in the area is acute. Reorganization is not feasible when the forces in question are either forces to relocate or are expected to conduct military operations other than building defensive positions. This appears to be what is happening. As for Russia's plan to use the Oskil as it's new front line, this seems to be already seriously compromised by Ukraine pushing up between Zarichne and Kreminna, well behind the river. It is also likely going to be directly threatened from the Kupyansk direction, which will likely link up with push north of Lyman. It also seems that Ukraine has flanked the river to the far north too. The next defensive line after that is Troitske-Svatove-Krasnorichenske-Kreminna. Troitske might already be out of the equation, Kreminna is threatened. Svatove and Krasnorichenske are not good defensive positions as they set at the bottom of a ridgeline that Ukraine is likely going to secure fairly soon. In short... I don't think Russia has the manpower or the support it needs to hold the Oskil line or even the next logical line beyond it (Zherebets River), which is already itself compromised (Kreminna area). All Russia can hope for is the weather turning terrible and/or Ukraine's forces being too tired to advance. At some point that will happen, but it seems Ukraine is capable of doing a lot more damage before it is obligated to stop. Steve Thanks for the well constructed and thorough feedback! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Local chats confirm that there are Ukrainian military in Zarechny and Torsk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Locals say UKR troops check IDs in Lyman. There is quet in the town. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 (edited) Captured T-90A and a heap of looted clothes... Edited October 1, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Unfortunately, I am on the phone untill evening. News are already coming (above) about UKR in the Torske, Zarechne and Lyman. RU info so far is confusing. Mostly they are everything is fine posts. However there are few vague post that can be interpreted as RU reatreated from Lyman area this night. They boast it was successful and already start portraying it it as glorious victory. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Grigb said: Unfortunately, I am on the phone untill evening. News are already coming (above) about UKR in the Torske, Zarechne and Lyman. RU info so far is confusing. Mostly they are everything is fine posts. However there are few vague post that can be interpreted as RU reatreated from Lyman area this night. They boast it was successful and already start portraying it it as glorious victory. They claims Spetsnaz and arrived units of 503rd MRR (I wonder how quikly they managed to move them here?) are holding the security zone along Torske - Kreminna road, not allowing UKR forces to cut it On other hand several UKR twitetr accounts claimed about heavy losses of RU forces on this road, which turned to "absolute killzone" Also there are some signs that Russians are withdrawing from Kreminna. Edited October 1, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taranis Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Captured T-90A and a heap of looted clothes... They left their dirty laundry because they lost their washing machine 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Haiduk said: They claims Spetsnaz and arrived units of 503rd MRR (I wonder how quikly they managed to move them here?) are holding the security zone along Torske - Kreminna road, not allowing UKR forces to cut it On other hand several UKR twitetr accounts claimed about heavy losses of RU forces on this road, which turned to "absolute killzone" Also there are some signs that Russians are withdrawing from Kreminna. Thing is there is claim spirtnaz already returned back hinting that they completed mission of retreating from Lyman. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 booze bus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 What was said earlier. There were disputes why ZSU prefer to use the BMP-1 instead of the BMP-2 in the ATO. In combination with a ballistic computer, the BMP-1 turns into a self-propelled artillery gun. The caliber of 72 mm made it possible to use it near the line of demarcation. Since calibers of 82mm or more were banned 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cederic Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 hours ago, Pete Wenman said: pretty raw stuff https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/ I could watch Zelenskyy handing out medals without getting emotionally involved. When you've lived in communities where the Commanding Officer is tracked from every single kitchen window as he walks through the estate waiting to see which door he'll knock on, you end up a bit inured. This though got me. Quote then it became just killing people 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 (edited) Before attack soldier (maybe chapelan) reads Psalm 90 Edited October 1, 2022 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardiebloke Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Entrance to Lyman... How long did it take for RU to take it??? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 (edited) RU claims: BARS-13 has been withdrawn to Kreminna area and that road to Lyman is still under RU control. Edited October 1, 2022 by Grigb 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cederic Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Tanks. Who needs them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 (edited) Russian social media speading "inspiring insides" that Russian troops of 58th and 20th Armies now are making probes in junctin of UKR units, so soon in theese places aviation will strike with FAB-500 and FAB-3000 and huge counter-offensive will be launched with prepared forces, so "will no joy for Ukraine soon" Though Grey Zone write Russian troops in big number turned out in encirclement at all and now unprecedented measures are applying to breach a way for them. Edited October 1, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ultradave Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: One for Haiduk and AKD: Note the BTR on the right of the cameraman looks to have been on parade back in May. The question I have is if these were dedicated parade vehicles? I thought I read somewhere that they kept the parade vehicles separate to make sure they looked nice and didn't break down. If true, then it's fun to see them at the front now. Steve Don't they know that it's time to leave when that happens? They aren't reacting. The next command is going to be Drop 200, FFE, or maybe Drop 400 - hard to tell. In any case, the next rounds are going to be on top of them. Time to scoot. They've got about 30-45 seconds to get moving. Dave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Video or UKR troops at the entrance to Lyman. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Confirmed: BARS-13 is Kreminna though they add at Kreminna near Lyman. The rest of the post is useless BS but looks like only half is combat- effective. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 And finally (after UKR video at Lyman entrance) RU started to discuss possibly that RU troops already left Lyman. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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