How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The first thing I do when watching a video from Ukraine is always to turn the music off. But music or not, this was heartwrenching to watch. It's the first time I shed a tear watching a video from Ukraine, and I've seen some pretty bad things through my screen.

Yeah, same here.  This is only the second video that got me crying and it was stronger than the first (woman in liberated village pouring her heart out to a Ukrainian soldier).

18 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I wonder if Putin also faces these families. Not that he would mind, since I doubt his reptile heart is capable of feeling any emotion that is not greed or pride.

No, he most definitely doesn't do this.  Not only doesn't he care about Human life AT ALL, but in his world view it shows weakness to be Human.

As much as war is a large part of my professional life, I am deeply Humanist to my core.  Yet if I saw a video of Putin handing out awards to widows and shaking hands with the orphaned children, I would not shed a tear.  I would pity them, but I would absolutely not cry for their loss.  In fact, I would have to try hard to not rejoice.  I might be a Humanist, but I am also a Pragmatist.  The suffering in Ukraine is unwarranted and the only practical way for it to stop is for as many Russians as possible to die on the battlefield.  Therefore, Russians need to die so that Ukrainians may live.

I hate that it has to be this way, but I'm not the one making the decisions.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Aye-aye Captain! 

But it will take some time - currently the official position is: huge reserves arrived, there is fighting, UKR encirclement failed, we killed millions of UKR.  So, they pretend nothing bad has happened. 

 

I love it when the RU Nats ignore RUMINT.  It not only means the RUMINT is likely correct, but probably even underselling it.

It will be interesting to see if Ukraine bags a large amount of prisoners this time.  So far Ukraine's caution on advance and Russia's cowardliness has resulted in few sizeable surrenders.  This time, I think, might be different.  Hundreds is theoretically possible.  Depending on if there's two pockets, could be higher.

We still don't know how many Ukraine captured in the initial week of the Kharkiv operation, not to mention we know almost nothing about Kherson.  But I'm guessing only a few hundred for Kharkiv and only 100 or so for Kherson.  Would love to be wrong, but I think Ukraine would speak more about numbers if they were larger.

Steve

[poesel]

All quite in the west? What's up with Kherson? Aren't the Russians not cut off for weeks now, and shouldn't they be starving (of ammo at least)?

I understand that Russia has its best troops there, but without supply...? So - are they getting somehow supplied, or is Ukraine holding back for some reason?

[Grigb]

RU vague posts, hinting at ongoing retreat, started to appear. I feel they are going to claim glorious victory out of retreat. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Understatement of the year contender.  Even with the somber music off.

Steve

I was trying not sob while I posted it...

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, poesel said:

All quite in the west? What's up with Kherson? Aren't the Russians not cut off for weeks now, and shouldn't they be starving (of ammo at least)?

I understand that Russia has its best troops there, but without supply...? So - are they getting somehow supplied, or is Ukraine holding back for some reason?

I hear ya, Poesel.  I have this same thought around 50 times a day.  I really want Kherson Kessel to fall w huge bag of prisoners.  Not just for the strategic & operational success but in my (so far) vain hope that it will cause Putin to fall.

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

All quite in the west? What's up with Kherson? Aren't the Russians not cut off for weeks now, and shouldn't they be starving (of ammo at least)?

I understand that Russia has its best troops there, but without supply...? So - are they getting somehow supplied, or is Ukraine holding back for some reason?

They are supplied due to various tricks + as understood beforehand they stored as much as they could. So, they are not starved but have various issues. 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, poesel said:

All quite in the west? What's up with Kherson? Aren't the Russians not cut off for weeks now, and shouldn't they be starving (of ammo at least)?

I understand that Russia has its best troops there, but without supply...? So - are they getting somehow supplied, or is Ukraine holding back for some reason?

It seems they had enough stockpiles of essentials that hadn't gotten HIMARSed and their round the clock ferry operation has kept things going.  Since they're fighting from fixed positions fuel isn't as much of an issue and, of course, it's possible they've managed to create a fuel pipeline somewhere across the Dnepr (though there is no evidence of one).  There have been some RU Nat reports about the lack of artillery support and it seems their air defenses are spent, which makes sense because those munitions are both bulky and heavy.

However, I doubt the ferries are supplying enough ammo to replace what is being consumed.  It true this means every day they fight they have to "top off" with ammo that was brought over prior to the offensive starting.  Once that runs out, it's game over.  Eventually.  It's amazing how long resistance can last when ammo is critically low *IF* the defenders have the morale to do so.

Steve

[sburke]

They would seem to be a good target for a psyops campaign after Lyman especially if UA pulls off a double envelopment.  If Russia can't get those folks out of that trap how the hell will they deal with Kherson?

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I hear ya, Poesel.  I have this same thought around 50 times a day.  I really want Kherson Kessel to fall w huge bag of prisoners.  Not just for the strategic & operational success but in my (so far) vain hope that it will cause Putin to fall.

I honestly think the Ukrainian's analysis is that having the best -ten percent of the Russian army pinned downed there bleeding while the Ukrainians put half to three quarters of their supplies at the bottom of the river is a winning situation. They are just stringing them along. Maybe they are waiting for something nice from lend lease to crush it properly? A hundred Abrams comes to mind...

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I think, you didn't understand me really. I never told that Russians are irredeemable. I just wrote about features, which composed "rashism". Even evil Madyars, which terrified Europe in 9th century after defeat and baptizing became similar to European nation. 

My statement about "collective guilt" isn't equal to "revange" and "let's they all die". In my opinion collective guilt is official and public recognizing of former ruling elites crimes and of course, reparations. And not as just transferring money from Russian budget to Ukrainian. This have to be separate tax, let even symbolical, but that every Russian, receiving own salary could see, that this part of his money could be belong to him, but due to aggressive politic and own support or indifference, this money will go to Ukraine. And some other, but let better concentrate on military aspects.

God love you Haiduk you are making all sorts of sense.  I apologize for grouping you into the genocidal narrative, as I was taking your position as being caught up in some previous rhetoric.

I think I have a bead on what you are saying now.  This is directly connected to the prosecution of this war during and after all we are really unpacking Russian Will - this is central to the questions such as:  possible nuclear response, the depth of Russian resistance and the viability of a lasting security for Ukraine.

Based on a read of your definitions it would appear that Russian Will is in fact brittle.  They have built an edifice of self-importance; however just how invested how each Russia is on this point appears highly variable.  All war is sacrifice - and one question that has bugged me is “what are Russians willing to sacrifice?”  We all know Putin and the power system has almost zero room to negotiate with their own people right now because they sold them a false narrative in line with a lot you are outlining.  This was is existential to Putin and his cronies, but what is the sacrifice calculus for the Russia people and what is the best way to influence it?  This will likely be variable but my sense is in fact one of apathy resting on long held assumptions.  So long as Putin can validate those assumptions they mostly more passive than active - with obvious exception on different poles.

This is interesting and lines up with the whole “we would rather lose to NATO than Ukraine” lines.

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

This is a hard watch....

The raw, heavy, heart-breaking price of freedom that time will never erase.
I am forever grateful that my precious little girl died in my arms, surrounded by love and care, not in violence and the horror of what people can and will do to one another.

[H1nd]

My latest thread on twitter. Its in Finnish, but the twitter translation function seems to work rather decently. I will probably translate it in english at some point if I have the time. 

Cheers!

-H1nd/Pasi Paroinen

Edited September 30, 2022 by H1nd

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, pavel.k said:

Def Mon has a similar map. So they will trap the reinforcements that came to help. Perfect.

Hah that was exactly my thought when I heard a "counter attack succeeded"  in reaching the kessel.  Yup, let them in and then close the door behind them.  Join the sausage party lads. 

[The_Capt]

16 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Another good quick summary assessment, in translation (from Czech) from ChrisO.  @The_Capt, I think you've said some of the same.

 

 

Dear gawd, I cant keep up with this thread while on the road.  Ok back to war fighting - ok, so, when I talk about an “operational system” this is what I am talking about.  We employ a different one but they all have common elements.  The system is built around operational functions, we use:

Command

Act

Sense

Shield

Project and Sustain

Generate

These functions can be mapped against capabilities in both a quantitative and qualitative sense.  Together they creat a system that creates decisions (of all types) on the battlefield.  The sum of decision directly influence the strategic options spaces - along with political context and other forms of power.

So when The_Capt says “The UA stressed the entire Russian operational system” I am really talking about this.  Right now Russia is behind and failing on almost every function, nor are those functions coordinated or synchronized.  Back in Phase 2, there is an argument that they still had advantage in Act, and we all feared the Generate boogeyman.  They are now behind on that.  They are really only left with a defensive capability set, unless they have a magic rabbit somewhere.  The Generate spectre is turning out as expected - a hot mess of cannon fodder.

Question on the table is how long will the Russian system be able to function defensively - it failed offensively in Jul and has not recovered.  As to the conduct of the war right now - unless I missed something - we have a lot of offensive pressure being applied by the UA.  This is a clear demonstration that their system is healthy and likely getting healthier.

Regardless of nuclear sabre rattling, we are headed for a conventional warfare decision point(s) before the weather turns, and then I would not be surprised to see the UA stage a winter offensive.  Let Russian conscripts sit the cold for a bit and then hit them.  I expect the UA to keep chewing until the RA system fractures again, and then we will likely see some fast gains:  goes slow…until it’s fast.

Edited September 30, 2022 by The_Capt

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, I'd believe that in a heartbeat.  We've been discussing here that the force that crossed the Siverskyi Donets was not there for sight seeing, yet they were oddly quiet.  I think we just figured out what they were waiting for!

If Ukraine is actively pushing into Kreminna then it is either already, or soon to be, moving into Dibrova.  Based on Ukraine's pattern of behavior, they never go for a narrow strike, they always go wide (which is textbook approved!).  If they have Dibrova, then they will likely be able to interdict the N/S farm road just north of the town.  That would pretty much isolate all forces that were trying to connect with the Lyman pocket.  A double pocket is a very nice thought.

Steve

Isn’t it worth a toast or two to how strongly Ukraine’s military has gone from zero major offensive coordination, to THIS? The first time in strength?

[sburke]

25 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

The raw, heavy, heart-breaking price of freedom that time will never erase.
I am forever grateful that my precious little girl died in my arms, surrounded by love and care, not in violence and the horror of what people can and will do to one another.

dude I was already down from that video then you decide I'm not down enough?  So sorry to hear of your loss.

[NamEndedAllen]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

dude I was already down from that video then you decide I'm not down enough?  So sorry to hear of your loss.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

[FancyCat]

A reminder, 12 billion isn't being provided to Ukraine, a lot of it is replacing U.S stockpiles given to Ukraine, payment for expenses incurred in the process of supplying Ukraine, etc.

Reviewing https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/hr6833/text

4.5 billion to Ukraine directly. 

3.7 billion for Ukraine, including supporting first responder efforts in Ukraine.

The rest for buying or increasing supply of equipment needed to replace what's been sent to Ukraine or for future shipments to Ukraine. Then the rest im not exactly sure if given to Ukraine or merely to cover costs relating to sending aid to Ukraine, like operations cost for flights shipping stuff to Poland? 

 

 

[FancyCat]

 

 

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

God love you Haiduk you are making all sorts of sense.  I apologize for grouping you into the genocidal narrative, as I was taking your position as being caught up in some previous rhetoric.

I think I have a bead on what you are saying now.  This is directly connected to the prosecution of this war during and after all we are really unpacking Russian Will - this is central to the questions such as:  possible nuclear response, the depth of Russian resistance and the viability of a lasting security for Ukraine.

Based on a read of your definitions it would appear that Russian Will is in fact brittle.  They have built an edifice of self-importance; however just how invested how each Russia is on this point appears highly variable.  All war is sacrifice - and one question that has bugged me is “what are Russians willing to sacrifice?”  We all know Putin and the power system has almost zero room to negotiate with their own people right now because they sold them a false narrative in line with a lot you are outlining.  This was is existential to Putin and his cronies, but what is the sacrifice calculus for the Russia people and what is the best way to influence it?  This will likely be variable but my sense is in fact one of apathy resting on long held assumptions.  So long as Putin can validate those assumptions they mostly more passive than active - with obvious exception on different poles.

This is interesting and lines up with the whole “we would rather lose to NATO than Ukraine” lines.

So back to my theory about skipping the nuclear escalation. NATO has the ability kill every Russian in Kherson pocket in a day. I mean some of them would surrender but you get my point. I think that is entirely feasible given the already degraded state of their air defenses, and tell the rest of the Russian forces in Ukraine we were picking a different spot tomorrow. The rest of the Russians would leave as fast as whatever they had can carry them. Putin can say he lost to NATO, and there are hopefully no nukes involved. Among other things it would save the lives of tens of thousands of Russian mobiks who are about to experience winter trench warfare. I am far more concerned about how six more months of war affects Ukrainian kids, but it is a valid point. I mean obviously this is the optimistic take on the scenario, but people on this board whose opinion I respect seem to think we are on a glide path to a really bright flash. If that analysis holds at some point it might be worth a gamble to get on a different track, apologies for the mixed metaphors, and a speculative idea.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, pavel.k said:

Def Mon has a similar map. So they will trap the reinforcements that came to help. Perfect.

Ok, hold up.  Is this confirmed?  Has the UA managed two river crossings?  In this environment?

[The_Capt]

Just now, dan/california said:

So back to my theory about skipping the nuclear escalation. NATO has the ability kill every Russian in Kherson pocket in a day. I mean some of them would surrender but you get my point. I think that is entirely feasible given the already degraded state of their air defenses, and tell the rest of the Russian forces in Ukraine we were picking a different spot tomorrow. The rest of the Russians would leave as fast as whatever they had can carry them. Putin can say he lost to NATO, and there are hopefully no nukes involved. Among other things it would save the lives of tens of thousands of Russian mobiks who are about to experience winter trench warfare. I am far more concerned about how six more months of war affects Ukrainian kids, but it is a valid point. I mean obviously this is the optimistic take on the scenario, but people on this board whose opinion I respect seem to think we are on a glide path to a really bright flash. If that analysis holds at some point it might be worth a gamble to get on a different track, apologies for the mixed metaphors, and a speculative idea.

Ok, back on the nukes.  My concern here is it would be within Putin’s playbook to fire off a battlefield nuke as a demonstration.  He could even target an empty grid square and fire off a warning shot.  This is right in line with Russian liminal warfare - edge up to the line and stick a toe over it, and hope we move the line.  My bet it would be if Crimea is threatened as losing that would likely trigger what Putin fears most - a Russian identity crisis.  I am getting the sense that after all these months that so long as Russians see the world as it was before Feb 22 - and again thanks to Haiduk for crystallizing that - then they will happily keep him in power and try to get on with the lives actively ignoring this war.  If things hit a point where the Russians have an identity crisis, very bad things will likely happen to Putin.  I am half way convinced that this is in fact the Russian centre of gravity (or at least one of them).

Russians will take the losses, they will even take mobilization but based on how Haiduk outlines what Russians need to “unlearn” about themselves, I suspect their internal trigger point lies there.  And in this war, my guess is that trigger is Crimea.

[G.I. Joe]

24 minutes ago, sburke said:

So sorry to hear of your loss.

Likewise...

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Even a strategy without adequate input from the military is still a strategy.  Even one dragged out of mentally scary head is still a strategy (unless we deem Putin insane, which I don't think is true).  As such, it has logic to it even if it is a terrible strategy in theory and/or execution.

 

As I always say on set  -  even a bad plan is better than no plan at all. 

But our intention is always to improve on the bad plan -  not double down and pound it deep into the anal sphincter of Worse.