How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

So, tomorrow Putin will publicly declare that the "republics" are now part of Russia. Then what?

He hopes mobilisation will allow him to keep them.

When that fails, and Ukraine starts taking back Luhansk and Donetsk... then what?

 

Putin knows that these areas are in high risk of being lost. Yet he chooses to double down and gamble his whole prestige on them now being Russia.

They are building the tribune outside the Kremlin now:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63072113

The simplest answer is that Putin is burning his bridges in order to signal willingness to escalate to nuclear weapons. 

[akd]

It’s all the fault of the heroic 20th Guards Army:

 

[akd]

I can handle the translation for this one:

“Squirrel!”

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

Lyman officially surrounded according to WarGonzo:

 

Sorry, Huba, but for the sake of accuracy, I will do a bit of nitpicking - he did not say Lyman is cut from Torske. He says UKR attacked Stavki effectively cutting defenders in Drobishevo from Torske. Here is the map.

However, there is something interesting - Lyman technically is not cut. It can still use another road (to the South). But Drobishevo could be supplied with this road as well. So, technically Drobishevo is not cut as well. Unless UKR already cut southern road. But in this case Lyman indeed cut from Torske as well.

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

16 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The simplest answer is that Putin is burning his bridges in order to signal willingness to escalate to nuclear weapons. 

I think the same. But it still doesn't answer the "Then what?" question. There must be a very heated debate about this at the highest levels of NATO right now.

And I'm going to voice an unpopular opinion: The West will back down in this case.

It won't be publicly declared, because we can't tolerate nuclear blackmail. Putin doesn't want to give the ultimatum, and we don't want to hear it. Don't ask, don't tell. But somehow, Ukraine will slowly lose interest or at least progress in taking back the rest of the country. New facts on the ground will have been made.

No formal declaration of peace will be given. The war will formally continue, like in the case of the Koreas. It's not a just or happy ending to this mess. But it's better than the alternative, that we all go down with Putin's ship.

We'll let him keep the republics, but try to strangle Russia economically and diplomatically. In a few years, Putin will be dead, either from an accident or from old age. And thanks to the sanctions, Russia will not be able to threaten anyone else. It will sink into a massive economic depression.

Western Ukraine will enter NATO together with other European countries. Russia will have been de-fanged and contained.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Sorry, Huba, but for the sake of accuracy, I will do a bit of nitpicking - he did not say Lyman is cut from Torske. He says UKR attacked Stavki effectively cutting defenders in Drobishevo from Torske. Here is the map.

However, there is something interesting - Lyman technically is not cut. It can still use another road (to the South). But Drobishevo could be supplied with this road as well. So, technically Drobishevo is not cut as well. Unless UKR already cut southern road. But in this case Lyman indeed cut from Torske as well.

 

 

No offence taken, proper analysis beats twitter every time, thanks for clarifying! 

[Grigb]

And RU is sending early models of T-72. They are "naked" - no additional protection or equipment.

[Letter from Prague]

8 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the same. But it still doesn't answer the "Then what?" question. There must be a very heated debate about this at the highest levels of NATO right now.

And I'm going to voice an unpopular opinion: The West will back down in this case.

It won't be publicly declared, because we can't tolerate nuclear blackmail. Putin doesn't want to give the ultimatum, and we don't want to hear it. Don't ask, don't tell. But somehow, Ukraine will slowly lose interest or at least progress in taking back the rest of the country. New facts on the ground will have been made.

No formal declaration of peace will be given. The war will formally continue, like in the case of the Koreas. It's not a just or happy ending to this mess. But it's better than the alternative, that we all go down with Putin's ship.

We'll let him keep the republics, but try to strangle Russia economically and diplomatically. In a few years, Putin will be dead, either from an accident or from old age. And thanks to the sanctions, Russia will not be able to threaten anyone else. It will sink into a massive economic depression.

Western Ukraine will enter NATO together with other European countries. Russia will have been de-fanged and contained.

I'd say nuclear war is better than this.

[Haiduk]

53 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Big problems, very big problems though - you are talking about social engineering on an extremely wide scale for 140 million people.

Modern wokism is the same social enginering and deconstruction, which affected countries with population much more than 140 millions. 

53 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Beyond the ethical issues - for example, how can we conduct this action and avoid erasing Russian identity and risking cultural genocide?

In the similar way as this was in Japan. Tradions saved, culture saved, identity - saved. Aggressive militarism and expansionism eliminated. 

I don't mean "50-years" occupation. Neither by NATO, nor by Ukraine - it's completely impossible. All what I wrote is what hypothetical new Russian powers must to do to fix situation. And partially Russia was doing this "nation building or deconstruction" in 1990-92, trying to break Soviet mentality, but rising KGB-maphia clans took developmnent over own control.

If we just liberate all our territories, we will not solve main problem and like Zaluzhnyi said we will get next war in 5-10-20 years. Revanchism will grow up again and the bear from cartoon again will stand and roar. But we will be in white coats and white gloves

53 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

it was their neighbours and they were talking a lot like what I am hearing here.

Yes, we had collaborators and traitots, which condemned to death hundreds of people. Fortunately some of them already departed to the God's Court, because corrupted Ukrainian courts have littlle trust. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[asurob]

22 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

 

And I'm going to voice an unpopular opinion: The West will back down in this case.

 

Negative.  If Russia goes nuclear, then bank on Russia being sans an air force or navy within hours after that.  If Vlad tosses one, things will get interesting quickly.  Unlike Vladimir's red lines, the west and NATO don't make false threats.  

We all may end up losing in this, but Putin most certainly will be the first loser

Edited September 29, 2022 by asurob

[Grigb]

35 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Yes.

Rybar is a bit vague. He explicitly says the road Lyman-Torske-Makiivka-Svatove is cut but also says Torkse is not taken. So, most likely UKR reached the road somewhere around Nevske and Makeiivka itself.

Rybar concludes

I would say RU is about to counter-attack with "Tajikistan" BTGrs as per Mashkovets post above.

And RU is moving reserves to Torske to push UKR back

Quote

In Lyman the situation is a f*cked, we are pulling reserves to drive [UKR] off the highway in the Torsky area.

 

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, asurob said:

Unlike Vladimir red line, the west and NATO don't make false threats.  

The USA's chemical weapons red line?

[Haiduk]

UKR has pushed off Russian VDV from some positions near Pravdyne, Kherson oblast. Сameraman says that there are concrete fortifications in tree plant and 4th rifle company of 206th TD battalion of 112th TD brigade (Kyiv) is going to seize theese positions 

Other video from taken positions - dead Russian soldier in the foxhole and BMD-2

 

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

If we just liberate all our territories, we will not solve main problem and like Zaluzhnyi said we will get next war in 5-10-20 years. Revanchism will grow up again and the bear from cartoon again will stand and roar. But we will be in white coats and white gloves

There is no chance in even 20 years that Russia would be able to really threaten Ukraine.  The technology gap would simply be too great. Russian is starting a descent into the dark ages.

I think Ukraine's problem is the crime syndicates that will run Russia.  You'll be dealing with regular criminals versus a criminal state.  Russian industry is collapsing, they have no access to modern electronics, no investment sources. they will have nothing to be able to build a coherent military.  It will be even worse than the problems they have already had and we have seen how that has gutted the Russian armed forces.

They won't be able to keep their air force flying, won't be able to develop high tech missiles or drone technology.  There are only so many decent electronic parts in all the washing machines they are stealing.

I think in essence what @The_Capt and others are trying to say is, you are a captive of your own history.  Russia is what it is and yes it has a long road to go to change.  The dynamic however is now different.  Ukraine is the country that has all the power.  Russia threw its "best" at Ukraine and the UA trashed it.  Russia's main resource is something that has a dying future. The world is moving to greener energy sources.  With no access to investment, no real access to technology, a continuing brain drain and an infrastructure it won't have the resources to maintain Russia may end up looking to Ukraine for help as crazy as that sounds.  Ukraine needs to look to a future without looking over its shoulder at Russia.

Edited September 29, 2022 by sburke

[asurob]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The USA's chemical weapons red line?

Biden already warned some months ago that if Chemical weapons are used in Ukraine there would be a NATO response.  He kept very close to the vest what.  But I'm sure he made it very clear to Russia exactly what would happen.  Back channels are no doubt on fire right now.

Edited September 29, 2022 by asurob

[Haiduk]

First lose of Russian unmanned mine-cleaning device Uran-6. It has blown up by a mine

Edited September 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

RUMINT about size of Ru grouping in Lyman area.

Quote

Under the Lyman, a grouping of units of the PMCs and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, as well as the scattered remnants of the units that came out from Izum, are almost surrounded. According to the Russian military, the number of encircled 1 700 - 2 200. According to Ukrainians  4-4.5 thousand people.

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Grigb

[pavel.k]

21 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'd say nuclear war is better than this.

And i thought that I am the extremist here 

[Letter from Prague]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

First lose of Russian unmanned mine-cleaning device Uran-6. It has blown up by a mine

I mean it cleaned at least one mine, so success?

[dan/california]

44 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I would say RU is about to counter-attack with "Tajikistan" BTGrs as per Mashkovets post above.

It seems too late for that. The Ukrainians have already taken the more defensible ground. The Russian counter attack would either have to engage the Ukrainians in the forested are they just seized, or attack over open fields and down the road they are trying to open. If they were strong enough to do either of those things they should have done it yesterday, when their starting positions would have been much better. Now they will just get wrecked by Ukrainian artillery while the Ukrainians go to the tactical defense and just wreck them. I doubt the AFU are short of ATGMs at the pointy end of what is currently their major effort. 

Of course that is about how stupidly they fought the rest of the war, so sure, they will probably do it. Getting one of their last decent, by Russian standards of decent, units smashed would shorten the war. 

[acrashb]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

 Instead, try to imagine this war ends.

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-end

Great article, saved. Goemans seems well-grounded and informed, and if a lot of what he says is common sense ("These leaders [e.g., people in Putins' position], Goemans found, would be tempted to “gamble for resurrection,” to continue prosecuting the war, often at greater and greater intensity, because anything short of victory could mean their own exile or death.") then often common sense needs to be researched to have credibility with decision makers.

And this is why this war and our response is so important: “This will shape the rest of the twenty-first century. If Russia loses, or it doesn’t get what it wants, it will be a different Russia afterward. If Russia wins, it will be a different Europe afterward.”

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

[...]Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner. It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. [...]

And that is why Sun-Tzu said to never leave your opponent with fighting as the only option.  Putin must have read Sun-Tzu as well as having personal experience with rats.

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

2. Russia has 6000+ nuclear weapons and can initiate the end of civilization. 

The end of civilization is a one-way street: it is almost certain that we don't get a second chance (essentially because all of the easy energy is gone - no more crude oil bubbling from the ground, or coal that you can dig without deep mine shafts, etc.).  So on top of the obvious-but-distant (not directly comprehensible) human cost, it's human extinction.  And that's a bad thing.  It may even explain the great filter.

3 minutes ago, asurob said:

Unlike Vladimir's red lines, the west and NATO don't make false threats. 

I don't know about NATO, but the West makes threats - as opposed to stating facts - routinely.  Recent example: Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against the Government of Syria to Respond to Use of Chemical Weapons - Wikipedia - there are others, I'm not picking on any specific president.

 

 

What does all this add up to?  Putin needs a way out.  He can't win and he can't lose.  We can't count on an assassination or health crisis, too uncertain.  So offer comfortable exile with enough perceived power (over the grounds, the household, for example) - free from threat by the ICC.  I hope that this is happening behind the scenes right now.

 

[billbindc]

33 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the same. But it still doesn't answer the "Then what?" question. There must be a very heated debate about this at the highest levels of NATO right now.

And I'm going to voice an unpopular opinion: The West will back down in this case.

It won't be publicly declared, because we can't tolerate nuclear blackmail. Putin doesn't want to give the ultimatum, and we don't want to hear it. Don't ask, don't tell. But somehow, Ukraine will slowly lose interest or at least progress in taking back the rest of the country. New facts on the ground will have been made.

No formal declaration of peace will be given. The war will formally continue, like in the case of the Koreas. It's not a just or happy ending to this mess. But it's better than the alternative, that we all go down with Putin's ship.

We'll let him keep the republics, but try to strangle Russia economically and diplomatically. In a few years, Putin will be dead, either from an accident or from old age. And thanks to the sanctions, Russia will not be able to threaten anyone else. It will sink into a massive economic depression.

Western Ukraine will enter NATO together with other European countries. Russia will have been de-fanged and contained.

I cannot claim to know for sure which way it will go but you can bet it's being furiously discussed, analyzed and gamed out as we speak. I do not think backing down is a viable strategy because Russia using this gambit isn't a defensive strategy...it's an offensive one. Were it the former we could let it go. Since any future dictator with nuke could then expect to get away with the 'quick grab, drop a nuke' gambit it's very clearly the latter. Just think of Taiwan and those globally crucial chip factories. It's something we cannot let pass. 

[Huba]

Like it wasn't obvious who is on the Light Side here

 

 

[Haiduk]

Four Kh-22 missiles were launched on Dnipro city today. One of them hit private houses area. Here is how it looks a crater after 600 kh of HE exploded. The house is destroyed. Small fragments of four civilians - two olders and two kids 8 and 9 years were found around on neigbour streets and roofs. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[poesel]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

 

It's like the Vietnamese who had to surrender to Dr. Manhattan personally...