How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder if the would-be-Mobiks are catching on that burning the conscription centers and killing the officers in charge is quite doable?  All it takes is one person with a half decent plan and it's done.  No needs to wrestle with police when there is a more effective solution.

Obviously this isn't a total solution.  But going directly after the symbols and apparatus for mobilization could build up people's confidence to try other things, like hitting the police stations.

Steve

little tip for the conscription center burners:  KNOCK OUT THE CAMERAS FIRST.  You can be shot for doing this.  Take a little time to plan, geeeeez.  If you want to video so you can inspire others, do it yourself so you can edit out clues. 

Hopefully there will be so many of these that security forces are overwhelmed.  Given that most locals will be on your side, seems like a pretty clean crime if there's no video.

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

little tip for the conscription center burners:  KNOCK OUT THE CAMERAS FIRST.  You can be shot for doing this.  Take a little time to plan, geeeeez.  If you want to video so you can inspire others, do it yourself so you can edit out clues. 

Hopefully there will be so many of these that security forces are overwhelmed.  Given that most locals will be on your side, seems like a pretty clean crime if there's no video.

If you sabotage the railroads they will have a much harder time shipping you to Ukraine, oh, and you might get away with it.

 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Seriously, the major problem with the UN Security Council is not Russia. It is the Security Council itself in general and especially having permanent members with veto powers. The latter being in that position by no other merit than having nukes.

Veto power is nothing but a "get out of jail for free" card. Yes, right now Russia is the culprit but next time it can be any other veto power. China, USA under Trump 2.0, France with LePen, etc.

I see your point, however having only the General Assembly without the UNSC is analogous to the USA Congress with only the House of Representatives. After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia doesn’t belong on the UNSC any longer regardless of whether that would solve ALL the UN’s or Council’s ills. It would move the UNSC closer to being able to address some of its own issues - or ANY issues. 
 

Rather like the war itself, I see no single actual silver bullets that can alone solve any of our greatest challenges today. 

[dan/california]

Dagestan still lively. Also a report the governor had a "heart attack".

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I see your point, however having only the General Assembly without the UNSC is analogous to the USA Congress with only the House of Representatives. After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia doesn’t belong on the UNSC any longer regardless of whether that would solve ALL the UN’s or Council’s ills. It would move the UNSC closer to being able to address some of its own issues - or ANY issues. 
 

Rather like the war itself, I see no single actual silver bullets that can alone solve any of our greatest challenges today. 

Putin having a very special cup of tea would be heck of start though.

[G.I. Joe]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Putin having a very special cup of tea would be heck of start though.

After seven months and 1,448 pages I am rather surprised that no one (as far as I've noticed) has made the obvious Hunt for Red October reference about slipping on tea...

[billbindc]

Just now, G.I. Joe said:

After seven months and 1,448 pages I am rather surprised that no one (as far as I've noticed) has made the obvious Hunt for Red October reference about slipping on tea...

Yes...and the character is named "Comrade Putin".

[G.I. Joe]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Yes...and the character is named "Comrade Putin".

Exactly...there's even a track on the soundtrack titled "Putin's Demise."

[billbindc]

26 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Exactly...there's even a track on the soundtrack titled "Putin's Demise."

And he’s KGB. An interesting coincidence. Now we just need a patriotic sub captain to do his duty.

 

[Offshoot]

It's been the worst kept secret, but Prigozhin admits publicly for the first time his links to Wagner. So why now after so long, even suing people who suggested he was connected to them? Does it have something to do with a play for power? - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/26/putin-ally-yevgeny-prigozhin-admits-founding-wagner-mercenary-group

Edited September 27, 2022 by Offshoot

[Billy Ringo]

I'm still wondering whether Putin ordered the mobilization just to shut up some of his detractors.  So--you don't like the way the special operation is going?  You want mobilization?  Sure--here, here's your mobilization.  Let's see how that works out for you.  Knowing full well:

• The mobilization process is extremely flawed.
• There's no where to house them
• There's no one to train them
• There's not enough military gear and weapons to arm them
• And no one has a reasonable plan to make any of it work.

So, go ahead and mobilize.   Take the spotlight off of Putin for a while.  Maybe in the end he'll own it anyway.  But it looks like his talking heads are already trying to take the blame off of him.

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

I'm still wondering whether Putin ordered the mobilization just to shut up some of his detractors.  So--you don't like the way the special operation is going?  You want mobilization?  Sure--here, here's your mobilization.  Let's see how that works out for you.  Knowing full well:

• The mobilization process is extremely flawed.
• There's no where to house them
• There's no one to train them
• There's not enough military gear and weapons to arm them
• And no one has a reasonable plan to make any of it work.

So, go ahead and mobilize.   Take the spotlight off of Putin for a while.  Maybe in the end he'll own it anyway.  But it looks like his talking heads are already trying to take the blame off of him.

Part of a plan to shoot ALL the generals and blame it on them? The generals might want to consider that...

[Sojourner]

16 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

I'm still wondering whether Putin ordered the mobilization just to shut up some of his detractors.  So--you don't like the way the special operation is going?  You want mobilization?  Sure--here, here's your mobilization.  Let's see how that works out for you.  Knowing full well:

• The mobilization process is extremely flawed.
• There's no where to house them
• There's no one to train them
• There's not enough military gear and weapons to arm them
• And no one has a reasonable plan to make any of it work.

So, go ahead and mobilize.   Take the spotlight off of Putin for a while.  Maybe in the end he'll own it anyway.  But it looks like his talking heads are already trying to take the blame off of him.

 

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Part of a plan to shoot ALL the generals and blame it on them? The generals might want to consider that...

You might be on to something, maybe mobilization is Putin's Reichstag moment to assume absolute authority - his word is law and there is no other, no one can stand in his way.

 

...but is he that clever (or stupid)?

Edited September 27, 2022 by Sojourner

[JonS]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

having only the General Assembly without the UNSC is analogous to the USA Congress with only the House of Representatives.

So, a couple of points here.

1) I'm not sure the UNSC is functionally analogous to the Senate. For one thing, there is membership - Senators represent a different constituency than congresspeople, whereas members of the UNSC are representing literally the same thing as their national colleagues in the GA.

2) there are loads of nations that function just fine without a separate upper and lower house - an upper house is not a pre-req for good governance. But AIUI the UNSC doesn't really serve the same function as an upper house anyway; it doesn't exist to 'ratify' decisions by the GA. If I recall correctly, the UNSC exists to avoid a situation where you have - to mangle an old expression - 143 grumpy sheep and a wolf voting on dinner. The UN would never have gotten off the ground if the 40-odd tiddly little nations of the Pacific - for example - could work as a block to outvote, say, the US on the urgent need to actually address climate change. Giving the superpowers a, well, a super power seemed like the best way to address that, as imperfect as it has been. Russia has this year thrown up a glaring problem with the UNSC - ie, what to do when one of the permanent members goes rogue. Up to this point the permanent members were implicitly assumed to be the adults, and could be trusted to make good decisions for the kids. That assumption is taking a bit of a beating right now, but I don't think that eliminating the UNSC or permanent members is the way to resolve it. I don't have a good alternative to it, but I can see that if the UNSC was abolished, then a few years down the track you could easily get snowballing, where one 'side' in an argument at the UN starts accreting votes, to the point where they can pretty much force through any decisions, mandates, and sanctions that they want. The permanent members currently provide a short-circuit to prevent that happening.

3) I'm not sure that comparing a mildly dysfunctional collaborative body with a wildly ineffective legislative one is a good way to go, except that in both cases they work great in theory. You know what they say: in theory there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is.

Addendum: I know you aren't arguing to eliminate the UNSC, but that option has been floated here in the last day or so. I also recognise it might seem that I have sort-of argued both for and against the UNSC, but that isn't quite right: I think that the UNSC serves useful purposes AND I know that deliberative bodies can function effectively without an 'upper house'.

Edited September 27, 2022 by JonS

[LongLeftFlank]

Yampil is a tough nut to crack, it would seem.

Dug up an old (April!) topo map from HeliosRunner, who is offline.  Yampil is that village nestled at the edge of the forest in the southeast quadrant.  UKR has been attacking it since at least 10 Sept.  A future CM scenario? 

 

I like these maps because unlike the 'solid mass of green' Google maps, they clearly contrast the wooded and built up areas from cultivated zones, showing readily how defensible Lyman is, from either direction -- it took RU 7 weeks to take it in the spring.  The flanks are well anchored so any envelopment needs to be large.

Edited September 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

20 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yampil is a tough nut to crack, it would seem.

 

 

Really need RU lines to crack, somewhere.  This is probably pretty costly for these heroic UKR soldiers.  I couldn't care less about RU soldiers.  They can flee, surrender or face the consequences since they are thieves caught in the neighbor's house.

Anyone ever watch any videos by this Russian kid?  He's been posting on YT for months, mostly from petersburg.  Here's he's talking about RU folks fleeing and 36 hour lines at border checkpoints.  I also notice he looks like he's posting this from a hotel -- is he hiding I wonder?  He doesn't mention whether he's on the conscription list or not.  He seems like a good kid, I hope he ends up OK.   Actually I'm surprised he's not been shut down thus far.

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

A couple of interesting tidbits from the Donbas.

_______

Ukrainian soldiers near the front say that Wagner’s ranks are bolstered by prison inmates from the separatist regions who were drafted into service. One Ukrainian soldier, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for security reasons, said Wagner’s forces attack only so far before sending inmates with little support forward to face Ukrainian guns like “cannon fodder.”

These tactics have left Ukrainian forces in the region with a flood of prisoners as the inmates frequently surrender. Another soldier, who also spoke anonymously, said Russian forces would not trade captured Ukrainian forces for inmates: the onetime Russian prisoners, now Ukrainian prisoners, are seen as deserters.

...

Ukrainian commanders in Bakhmut said recently that even the presence of U.S.-supplied rocket systems, known as HIMARS, have failed to put much of a dent in the Russian supply chain. That’s a marked change from Ukrainian commanders’ accounts over the summer when the weapons first arrived — suggesting that Russia had adapted to the strikes by better dispersing its ammunition stockpiles.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/world/europe/ukraine-donbas-russia-lyman-bakhmut.html

[Battlefront.com]

More fun on Russian propaganda TV:

"Couldn't we just shoot those who are responsible?"  What an excellent idea... time to shoot Putin

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Really need RU lines to crack, somewhere.  This is probably pretty costly for these heroic UKR soldiers.

Yup, and Yampil is a good place. UKR has more and better infantry, so once the town falls, clearing the (mined) forests is straightforward.  That puts them on the Lyman-Kreminna highway far enough east not only to fully cut off Lyman but to flank Torske, which anchors the next north-south river line on the Zherebets river.

The Russians would need to divert serious forces to (maybe) halt a further advance on northern Luhansk Oblast.

 

[dan/california]

The AFU are racing the rain as much as the Russians. Although the same rain is also going to freeze the gains they already have. I don't see Russian mobiks with literally no training taking back much ground when things mud out.

Edited September 27, 2022 by dan/california

[chuckdyke]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

"Couldn't we just shoot those who are responsible?

The woman also said: "I don't believe in shooting people." Excellent advice for the Russian army in the Ukraine.

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

More fun on Russian propaganda TV:

"Couldn't we just shoot those who are responsible?"  What an excellent idea... time to shoot Putin

Steve

So a good time to ask why Mr SillyShirt has not answered the call.  If they are calling up old, fat stupid F's he should be first in line. 

 

[FancyCat]

its a river of ammo.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

A couple of interesting tidbits from the Donbas.

_______

Ukrainian soldiers near the front say that Wagner’s ranks are bolstered by prison inmates from the separatist regions who were drafted into service. One Ukrainian soldier, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for security reasons, said Wagner’s forces attack only so far before sending inmates with little support forward to face Ukrainian guns like “cannon fodder.”

These tactics have left Ukrainian forces in the region with a flood of prisoners as the inmates frequently surrender. Another soldier, who also spoke anonymously, said Russian forces would not trade captured Ukrainian forces for inmates: the onetime Russian prisoners, now Ukrainian prisoners, are seen as deserters.

...

Ukrainian commanders in Bakhmut said recently that even the presence of U.S.-supplied rocket systems, known as HIMARS, have failed to put much of a dent in the Russian supply chain. That’s a marked change from Ukrainian commanders’ accounts over the summer when the weapons first arrived — suggesting that Russia had adapted to the strikes by better dispersing its ammunition stockpiles.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/world/europe/ukraine-donbas-russia-lyman-bakhmut.html

Yeah, pretty standard play for Russia to empty out its prisons without any concern if they do anything militarily.  Just so long as they don't come back, all is good for Russia.

As for the HIMARS comment, I do think Russia has dispensed it's stocks of ammunition better than in the past.  A lot of the pictures coming out of captured ammo shows them being stored outside instead of in easily identified buildings.  One shot posted today showed a very long trench loaded with ammo.  Having it arranged lineally out in the open likely reduces the chances that it will all go up at once.

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

It's been the worst kept secret, but Prigozhin admits publicly for the first time his links to Wagner. So why now after so long, even suing people who suggested he was connected to them? Does it have something to do with a play for power? - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/26/putin-ally-yevgeny-prigozhin-admits-founding-wagner-mercenary-group

Gotta have something to do with power games.  Wagner has a lot of admirers right now, so if he is trying to become bigger it seems tying himself to Wagner is a prudent thing to do.

Steve

[sross112]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

its a river of ammo.

 

 

LOL, oh boy. "Hurry, let's put all our ammo in this ravine to hide it and keep it safe!!" A couple weeks before the rainy season......doh!! There are probably a couple logisticians on the forum that may need to be revived after watching that.

The professionalism, fore thought and planning of the RA just never stops.