How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

They don't fly *that* high so I think even just getting enough 23/30/35/40/57 mm AA guns will suffice. It's just a matter of getting enough coverage.

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Even if sanctions disappeared immediately, there is no way Russia would be ready to fight Ukraine again in 5-10 years.  Or 10-20 for that matter.  And sanctions will remain in place for a long time.

Ahhh, but some sanctions have already been lifted - or at least aren't being enforced. I read a report over the weekend how Russian tankers are trans-shipping oil at sea to western flagged tankers for delivery to western countries. A drop in the bucket perhaps, but it adds up. And there's probably a lot more nudge nudge, wink wink going on.

Sanctions are more placebo than panacea. To be effective they need to be severe, and if severe enough the main effect is to create a population that hates you more than their own leadership.

[Haiduk]

Odesa again under attack of Shaheds. AD is working, reportedly even fighter jets are scrambled

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

Like I said, there is no way to actually overthrow the Russian government, and even if you did so, at some point, that Russia may be likely to reinitialize its empire building so any idea along the lines of assisting the Russian government will eventually hit the roadblock of sacrificing a smaller state along Russia's border to appease internal Russian tensions, the same concept as how Chechnya, Georgia got attacked by Russia. 

The best idea is just accept that Russia will exist, will come back, and ensure Ukraine and other border states are in the best position to oppose Russia. Again, the best way of doing that is ensuring the borders of Russia have no pesky annoying puppet states Like Luhansk or Donetsk that claim their de facto provincial borders that need "Russian liberation" and it is certainly cheaper than trying to invade/occupy/control Russia. 

Literally no point in trying to make a agreement with the Russian government, who will betray it, or force the West to betray those states who go to the West for assistance. 

[DerKommissar]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

What people?  I haven't seen any significant signs of resistance.  2 nut cases going off doesn't qualify.  Even the anti-mobilization protestors haven't shown any real support for Ukraine.

- 2 nut cases

- Hundreds of protesters 

- Draft dodgers/deserters

- Thousands of exiles in Turkey, Armenia, etc.

- PoWs galore

- Disgruntled elites abroad

- Repressed peoples

The problem isn't that they don't exist, but they're uncoordinated. I am not calling for an immediate rebellion, more-so building an underground movement. With the primary goal to act on succession.

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This will not work. Russian middle class almost completely "out of politic". Their ideal - comfort life, without any social and political activity and responsibility... maybe except coalas problem in Australia. Russian middle class just will pack own goods and relocate to Europe, Turkey, Emirates, Georgia... 

Offer them positions in government? Focus on the ones who can't emigrate for whichever reason? If we still had Steve Irwin, maybe he could incentivize them?

Guys, I agree that this is hard one to pull off. It is wishful thinking, on my behalf. I just don't see any other long term solution.

Not enjoying the prospect of this moron unleashing nuclear war, and then having a full-scale intervention (which we would have to do). 

[FancyCat]

4 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

Guys, I agree that this is hard one to pull off. It is wishful thinking, on my behalf. I just don't see any other long term solution.

Some problems will never be solved. 

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

- 2 nut cases

- Hundreds of protesters 

- Draft dodgers/deserters

- Thousands of exiles in Turkey, Armenia, etc.

- PoWs galore

- Disgruntled elites abroad

- Repressed peoples

The problem isn't that they don't exist, but they're uncoordinated. I am not calling for an immediate rebellion, more-so building an underground movement. With the primary goal to act on succession.

Offer them positions in government? Focus on the ones who can't emigrate for whichever reason? If we still had Steve Irwin, maybe he could incentivize them?

Guys, I agree that this is hard one to pull off. It is wishful thinking, on my behalf. I just don't see any other long term solution.

Not enjoying the prospect of this moron unleashing nuclear war, and then having a full-scale intervention (which we would have to do). 

Cold(ish) War is the most permanent solution I could think of. If we accept that RU is not our partner, not a business opportunity, but a  dormant, but potentially dangerous enemy that has to be contained, we'll be good. It will cost a bit to keep larger armed forces than in last few decades (well, in Europe), but It's a straightforward, tested solution to a problem. We will start doing business with them in some time I'm sure, but building actual trust will be extremely difficult, and initiative is on their side. Handing over war criminals and apologizing would be a good start.

Oh, and in other news:

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

- 2 nut cases

- Hundreds of protesters 

- Draft dodgers/deserters

- Thousands of exiles in Turkey, Armenia, etc.

- PoWs galore

- Disgruntled elites abroad

- Repressed peoples

The problem isn't that they don't exist, but they're uncoordinated. I am not calling for an immediate rebellion, more-so building an underground movement. With the primary goal to act on succession.

all of those folks don't add up to what you propose though.  They aren't motivated AGAINST the regime.  They are motivated to want their lives to go on unchanged from the war.  

The best option I have seen so far is the various republics that are resisting mobilizing their young.  They have a vested interest in keeping the Moscow regime from using their folks as cannon fodder.  The folks fleeing as has been noted in this thread are not expressing a pro Ukraine sentiment or even anti regime.  They just don't want to go. If anything, you see them blaming the west or Ukraine for their plight.  Honestly, I have no idea when we might hit a trigger point where they do blame the regime, but even when they do, what will their answer be?  The US had somewhat of an underground movement during the Vietnam war in both antiwar activities as well as facilitating draft resistance.  However, while the FBI and various police forces did cross a lot of legal lines pursuing it, it was never like Russians will see and it was not real effective.  I just don't see the mass level of commitment it would take to create an underground resistance of any sort.  The closest they have had is the mothers organization.

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

Cold(ish) War is the most permanent solution I could think of. If we accept that RU is not our partner, not a business opportunity, but a  dormant, but potentially dangerous enemy that has to be contained, we'll be good. It will cost a bit to keep larger armed forces than in last few decades (well, in Europe), but It's a straightforward, tested solution to a problem. We will start doing business with them in some time I'm sure, but building actual trust will be extremely difficult, and initiative is on their side. Handing over war criminals and apologizing would be a good start.

After the UA is done with the Russian army, I think we could station a girl scout troop on the border.

[Haiduk]

27 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

Offer them positions in government?

Of course, we can find some active people, new leaders and administrators. But authority of middle class have to lean on this middle class, which would be socially active to transmit new ideas to other society. But Russian middle (or like Russian say "creative") class closed in own rose-unicorne world of Iphones, Instagram, IT, author coffee receips, night clubs and comfort restourants. Why bother themselves, suffer some inconveniences, to be involved in this, what they contemptously call "politota" (means "politic", as some boring, dirty and unclear thing, which normal person have to evade in any cost) if they can go out of Russia and get previous comfort life immediately? 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Cederic said:

Ah, I should perhaps apologise. I was speaking in the context of people complaining that the West need to develop/improve their psyops against civilian populations.

I can trace military psyops back to WW2, targeting both civilian populations and military opponents. Propaganda does however tend to be a Government activity rather than a military one; military interactions are usually far more nuanced and targeted, and the suggestion at hand around targeting Russian civilians would in the UK be initiated by non-military entities taking advantage of civil resources (such as the BBC).

Military psyops feel more applicable to the suggestion someone made around depositing caches of vodka, or intercepting Russian supplies of toilet roll to the frontline troops. I'm sure you'll find that a naive assumption, but I would nonetheless stand by my belief that political entities in the US are more capable than military ones at influencing public opinion.

So I would offer that you undertake a learning journey into this area: https://www.rand.org/topics/psychological-warfare.html

Closely linked to Influence operations:

https://jpia.princeton.edu/news/strategic-influence-operations-call-action

And the concepts of Reflexive Control:

https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2017/02/01/disinformation-and-reflexive-control-the-new-cold-war/
 

And subversive warfare:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/understanding-subversion-considerations-our-special-forces-waller

I think you will find that 1) this is an enormously complex field of operations, far beyond WW2 propaganda, and 2) no, western governments do not practice this on their own people.  Governments do strategic communications and public affairs but conducting psychological operations directly at ones citizenry occurs in autocratic regimes and not so much in western democracies.

 

[Haiduk]

Missile strike on Kryvyi Rih airport. Runway and facilities destroyed or heavy damaged.

[FancyCat]

They are literally sending the men of the occupied regions of Ukraine to their deaths. Apparently, they are probably recently mobilized from Russia or some contract personnel. Which sadly does not make it more likely that the conscripted men of occupied Ukraine won't get the same or worse treatment. 

On that note, Russian media control is heavy in the DPR and LNR, if the idea behind a easier peace is to let them persist and show Ukraine off as a lure to encourage integration, isn't the solution merely to turn to Russia and close off the view to Ukraine? And even if Russia cannot fund the DPR and LNR or Crimea, what prevents them from merely just existing and closed off? 

And what about the pro-Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars who have assisted Ukraine, who remained loyal to Ukraine, in the hopes of ensuring liberation? It's only been 8 years. Arguing that Ukraine may decide give up the occupied Donbas to not lose thousands of men in favor of a easier peace would be a worthwhile argument if the West didn't have the tools to ensure that Ukraine could conquer the territory without losing personnel.

Just give them F-16s, give them the bombs needed to destroy emplacements, the stand off weapons like ATACMS to damage the separatists without risking ZSU personnel.  

....humbug, what kinda of people are we, acting like Ukraine is gonna have to do a long attritional war when the West built their military around ending the potential for attritional wars, give Ukraine everything it needs and it will end the conflict without sacrificing thousands of men. 

There isn't any reason for the West to urge Ukraine to not retake all her lands except for fear of Russia. 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by FancyCat

[Zeleban]

The establishment of a pro-Western puppet government and the collapse of Russia into several enclaves are one and the same. Russia cannot exist without coercion. Remember the 90s. Yeltsin's reign is considered to be a very liberal time, and during his reign there were signs of the collapse of the Russian Federation (the war in Chechnya and Dagestan, active attempts at secession in Tatarstan). But hard Putin came and established tough orders, crushed the resistance of the separatists. Russia was saved.

[Haiduk]

Russian tank launched to the space 

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

During active phase of offensive 9 Kraken fighters have fallen

Heavy is the price.

Peace to their families

Glory to Ukraine

Napalm to the Russian Ba%%##%ds

 

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Missile strike on Kryvyi Rih airport. Runway and facilities destroyed or heavy damaged.

Unfortunate, but it is sort of amazing that Russia is only striking such an obvious target 7 months in. Are the Iranian drones involved somewhere?

 

[womble]

Does the RU "middle class apathy" extend deep enough into the psyche that the dragooned involunteers will actually march like sheep to their deaths (and unfortunately kill a few Ukrainians on their journey) rather than desert/rebel/plain surrender-en-masse at the first opportunity?

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Are the Iranian drones involved somewhere?

Kryvyi Rih was attacked with Kh-59

Odesa repelled attack of Shaheds. Reportedly in this time they have been coming from SW, from Chornomorsk port direction. Five Shaheds were shot down, one hit target in the city.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Because a 140 mln empire attacking a smaller country is much more dangerous than a 10 mln region attacking a full-fledged country it has 0 chance of ever occupying, while also being busy fighting other neighbors.

Or maybe, being so small and broken up, they will be too busy dying from hunger to even care about attacking someone.

I'd take a risk of unknown over a guarantee of known any day - because Russia coming back for revenge is absolutely, 100%, guaranteed. It's set in stone. It's been like that for 300 years and nothing ever changes. And this time it will be Russia that learned its mistakes.

Russia not being there also means other countries all around them get a chance at being free. Or are you telling me it's OK for Moldova and Georgia to keep suffering after 30 years of it - because an illusion of "business as usual" is more important?

So a lot of problems with your theory here:

- Belarus has about 10 million people and as far as this war they have not done Ukraine any favours.  I am not sure population base is a key metric of how much damage a nation can do to Ukraine.

- A few 10 million population countries with a serious hate on for Ukraine - and I am pretty sure there will be that factor, can be problematic.

- You are very likely to get non-state, or state sponsored terrorism against Ukraine for a long time.

- "Too busy dying from hunger", ok so we are talking about using a humanitarian disaster to keep whatever is left of Russians in line?  Would that include withholding food aid like a Somalia warlord? 

- See my extensive posts on the nuclear proliferation threat.  The main push back was that the new states and the West will figure it out; however, I doubt that will be the case if they are "starving".

No, it is not "Ok" for Moldovia or Georgia to suffer but it is how things are - have you ever been to Africa?  However, I am not sure breaking Russia will really fix that, it could make it worse as the entire region falls into anarchy.

Russia is definitely a problem, do not get me wrong; however, I have yet to hear a coherent solution to the post-conflict solution either within Ukraine or in Russia.  You have been advocating for the complete dissolution of Russia pretty early on, and frankly I get the impulse, but I see a lot of "worse" here, and not much that actually fixes anything.

[DerKommissar]

20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Some problems will never be solved. 

As an engineer, I find it difficult to subscribe to that sentiment. Still, you may be right. I am most certainly out of my depth.

16 minutes ago, Huba said:

Cold(ish) War is the most permanent solution I could think of. If we accept that RU is not our partner, not a business opportunity, but a  dormant, but potentially dangerous enemy that has to be contained, we'll be good. It will cost a bit to keep larger armed forces than in last few decades (well, in Europe), but It's a straightforward, tested solution to a problem.

Until people start forgetting and start voting to cut military funding. This is straightforward, but inevitably doomed to cause another invasion. Isolation hasn't caused the desired results, yet.

Still, it seems to be on the path, we're on right now. Newton's first law and all that.

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

But Russian middle (or like Russian say "creative") class closed in own rose-unicorne world of Iphones, Instagram, IT, author coffee receips, night clubs and comfort restourants. 

Then, social media may be the way to go. Make opposing these politics they dislike, as trendy as avacado toast. Offer Siberians platinum encrusted iphones, the comforts of a Saudi, if they go independent.

2 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The establishment of a pro-Western puppet government and the collapse of Russia into several enclaves are one and the same.

Agreed, self-determination must come along. Just as long as no enclave uses conquest as a viable means of foreign policy. So, either all enclaves need to be puppets or there needs to be a multinational watchdog.

[billbindc]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/22/europe/russia-mobilization-logistics-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

It looks like one clear conclusion we can take from the mobilization is that Russia's army is in deep, deep trouble. As noted in the post up a page or so, mobiks are being simply dumped onto the battlefield. What few responsible seeming mobilization officers there are seem to be imploring their charges to bring virtually every bit of kit they can including body armor, socks, boots and sleeping bags. Training seems to be completely going by the wayside and some men are arriving in the field without any at all. Today, word from Kupiansk is of a virtual slaughter of newly arrived Russian soldiers, if at this stage it's fair to call them that. 

None of this indicates an army that is anything short of desperate. As in, holding on at Stalingrad desperate with no Bagration coming to reverse the course of events. A dangerous moment with a stark escalation choice now directly in front of Vladimir Putin.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Ok, and this is NOT from he sanest member of this forum, let focus on Socks and IFVs.

Haiduk? I disagree, he has been one of the sanest reporters directly from the Ukraine we have.  I think I saw him lose his temper exactly once in all this and it was back in Phase I when the Russians were literally at the gates of Kyiv.

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This. And this regime have to rule by "stell hands in velvet gloves", providing de-rashization and growing new generation, new eites, which can posess reins of government through 20 years as minimum. Together with this money from Russian resourses selling have to be moved for such things, that even in deep Syberian ot Buriatian villages inhabitants could have all those, which Russian soldiers looted in Ukrianian villages. In order to Russians could feel that new ruling is better than old and to have toilet in the beuatifull house is better that to live in old rotten barrack with toilet on the street and smelly dump nearby, but to proud by "Russian special way", and think "we are living hard, but let all in the world fear us, because we are great invinsible state".

But the question - how this "external ruled" government and leader to put in Moscow without direct intervention...

Ho, man, that is a tall order.  A Western puppet inserted into Russia- I mean technically it is feasible but I think you hit the nail on the head - how do you get Russians to accept it?  Followed by - what if they do not?  I mean we played this game in Iraq and Afghanistan and the short answer is that we either end up supporting a western backed brutally oppressive regime, or we get pulled in and have to do it ourselves.  Yo wanna talk about politically prohibitive.

And as you point out, how does one actually do it without 1) triggering WW3, or 2) Having Russia go into freefall?

Why do you guys keep sidestepping NATO as an answer to not being invaded?  The proof is right there in the Baltics.  Yes, there is Russian interference and a$$holery but Russia is not seriously going to go to war with NATO, definitely not now.  I am not sure we need to deconstruct Russia - it has more risks than reward, I do think Ukraine must be within the NATO umbrella.

I suspect the best we can do with Russia is containment and let China deal with their "boy".

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by The_Capt

[Zeleban]

China did not wait for the crowd of Russian refugees to approach

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/22/europe/russia-mobilization-logistics-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

It looks like one clear conclusion we can take from the mobilization is that Russia's army is in deep, deep trouble. As noted in the post up a page or so, mobiks are being simply dumped onto the battlefield. What few responsible seeming mobilization officers there are seem to be imploring their charges to bring virtually every bit of kit they can including body armor, socks, boots and sleeping bags. Training seems to be completely going by the wayside and some men are arriving in the field without any at all. Today, word from Kupiansk is of a virtual slaughter of newly arrived Russian soldiers, if at this stage it's fair to call them that. 

None of this indicates an army that is anything short of desperate. As in, holding on at Stalingrad desperate with no Bagration coming to reverse the course of events. A dangerous moment with a stark escalation choice now directly in front of Vladimir Putin.

Unfortunately the only form of communication Russia responds too is trains full of zinc coffins, and the prospect of even more. There is nothing for it but send as many as we can, as fast as we can, until they quit. It is the only thing we control on the Russian side.

[Chibot Mk IX]

10 hours ago, Grigb said:

It is very puzzling actually. RU knew it was coming. They had both time and units to strengthen it. But it looks like RU decided to strengthen Zaporozhye direction. There are two theories:

1. RU is afraid of UKR offensive in Zaporozheye direction above all. It does not make any sense but possibly Putin interference is the cause. 
2. RU is planning to make its own offensive in Zaporozheye direction. It does not make any sense either - the window of opportunity is closing right now due to imminent mud season.

I am afraid we do not have enough cocaine and women with low social responsibilities to understand RU High Command  plans.

I guess RU high command are obsessed with keeping initiative.

Well, besides selling the story that “we are attacking until enemy collapse” to both domestic and western audience, keeping initiative is critical to RU war planning.

If UKR grasps initiative, they can decide where to start an offensive.  Long-termly it spells disaster for RU, because of the troops occupy some “quiet” sectors.  UKR’s TDF can absorb a significant part of RU offensive (either independently or with help and support). What RU has? Rosgvardiya,  Mobilize…. They are either going to melt away in front of a UKR offensive campaign or losing territory here and there in an opportunity attack. That requires RU to move its already depleted “elite” force here and there as a fire brigade.

So from RU perspective, keep UKR on the defense sounds like a reasonable solution to a complicate problem.

Of course ironically, RU's obsessive with keeping initiative caused this huge mistake, it speeds up the process for the AFU to firmly grasps the initiative.