How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

A technical question for our AA guys:

Will MANPADS be able to defeat these? They appear to be slow enough that they should be detectable and engageable by the time they get to their target. I believe (not an AA expert) that most MANPADs target the heat source. Would a little two cylinder gas engine like that have a significant enough heat signature for them to engage it? Do the more modern systems have optical targeting like the Javelin?

Then also, wouldn't these be super vulnerable to kinetic systems like Gephard or Tunguska? I know way, way, way back there was talk about AA Radars and how they weren't good for little drones because of the small size and low speed but these look bigger and should be trackable, right?

Thanks in advance for your wisdom and knowledge.

@Zeleban has said Shahed is easy target for MANPAD, but from what I heard from soldiers, all more difficult. 

Indeed this drone has the engine similar to the bike and it has air cooling, so his heating can be too low for firm lock of MANPAD or any IR-homing missile. Next problem relatively low altitude of flight. We havn't 100 % radar covering and probably our radars are working in flickering mode and constantly move to avoid missile strike, so not always theese drones can be detected timely. 

Soldiers and some ecxperts say that really kinetic systems and even rifles and MG can be effective, but if this asset will be deployed on potential roure of theese drones. Though we gave some troub;es with AA guns. As said Tatras Chmut, director of charity fund "Back-and-Alive", which has license for wepon systems import, we have defficite of ZU-23-2 in about 400 guns. Also barrels to ZU-23-2 and Shilkas also can be problem soon. 

Four drones were shot down with Buk near Mykolaiv and AD SAM (Buk or even S-300) shot dowm Shahed near Dinipo, not MANPAD. So, theese drones can be detected by TELARs and shot with semi-active or active missiiles. Also, I think Strela-10M3 can shot theese drones, using optical channel of guiding. 

 

[FancyCat]

The West and Ukraine are not one side, with the same goals and motivations. Once Russia nukes Ukraine, the only response is to punish Russia via conventional means in order to ensure the total Ukrainian victory. You must show that nuclear warfare is taboo. If you effectively tell Ukraine to stop advancing, if you decide to sacrifice Ukraine's security for "the West", you get no security for anyone.

Russia's red lines are bull****. End stop. We have seen time and time again, Russia acting with crazier and crazier escalation, in a bid to keep her seizures. Normalizing annexations, normalizing aggression is NOT how you enable greater world security. If you force Ukraine to not gain total Ukrainian victory, you let Putin win, you enable him to flick the nuclear button every time he wants another chunk of Ukraine.

So let's think about it. Say Ukraine tries to take Kherson and Russia declares nuclear weapons are on the table for defend Russian territory. I.e, Ukraine must stop it's offensive. (Putin's speech 3 days ago declared that a threat to Russian's territory would be met with a potential nuclear response)

What keeps Russia from saying that the people of Kharkiv must be liberated to join the Russian Federation and Putin declares that nukes are on the table?

Ukraine must cross the red line and the West needs to stand behind Ukraine or you are going to embolden Putin to feel that the West will fold, and that Ukraine is not important enough to risk brinkmanship with.

[Cederic]

15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Ukraine must cross the red line

I see no other option.

--

On a lighter note..

 

[FancyCat]

 

[Anonymous_Jonze]

3 minutes ago, Cederic said:

I see no other option.

--

On a lighter note..

 

It's nice to see a little humanity in the chaos of war.

[dan/california]

37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am not sure about "gone" but man we would drive ourselves nuts trying to salvage it.  It also depends on the context of use.  If Russia had tried it while on the offensive and it led to them getting what they want - yep, all bets off and Heaven is on fire.

If Russia does it in "self-defence" of regions or partial that they basically stole in order to put the brakes on the UA rolling over them...gets a little more grey...and frankly, we will be desperate for grey at that point.  It is ambiguous warfare, worse it is ambiguous nuclear warfare - ok, take a minute, we are actually talking about this in 2022.... - ok, and we are back.  

Hypothetically, let's say Russia uses a few battlefield nuclear weapons at the choke point in Crimea.  A Bn of UA gets wiped out...ok.   Well first thing is that there definitely will be an escalation and reaction - let's play DIME:

Diplomatic - I expect that Russia will join NK in the bleacher seats within the international community.  Out of UNSC and any other influential bodies...the murmurs for that have already started.  The US is very likely to get more aggressive about boxing Russia up until Putin is gone.  I suspect China and India will back way off support for Russia as it becomes way too toxic.  Iran will probably still talk to them but Russia will likely become a hermit nation diplomatically, holding its near abroad like tatters around its cold naked body.

Information - see Diplomatic.  Worried about Russian information warfare...well still worry but the western security apparatus will kick into high gear. Further, in this space I have zero doubt will switch from integrated deterrence to active integrated deterrence - which is just code for political warfare.  So things like support to resistance within Russia itself are on the table, along with all sorts of stuff we hold back on because we are worried about escalation.

Military - Oh my...oh my.  We discussed this before, but I am not sure we would automatically lob nuclear weapons back as that is on the nuclear escalation ladder.  We will start doing a lot of stuff in the region and abroad.  We talked about opening up a Pacific deterrence front.  Kalingrad etc.  Ukraine will likely get more conventional support but defensive if we want them to slow down, include higher tech AD and BMD.  You could see a US/NATO carrier battlegroup in the Black Sea and other penning Russia in.  A no-fly zone might be on the table, direct SOF support...the list goes on.  NATO will be funded until at least D+30 after the Second Coming of Christ.

Economic - forget it.  Russia is in the penalty box until it is destitute and we can force them to cough up the nukes...again North Korea.  Sanctions and isolation.  To the point China and India might jump in - crazy is bad for their business too.

Now here is the thing - we could do all that and still ask the UA to put the brakes on in the scenario we are talking about.  You see from above we are quickly getting to the "Russia has nothing left to lose" point, and that is very dangerous - especially with a deluded 70 year old rabid nationalist who manages to keep his stubby fingers on the button by this point.

Could we stop the war and draw new lines and live with?...I think, yes, but it is conditions based.  After Russia puts the gun down, we would then go crazy re-affirming nuclear security in those nervous nations.  I would tell my son to get into the BMD game because it is going to go crazy.  We will be parking those things everywhere...SDI would likely come back, an oldie but a goldie...maybe the original Journey would come back too.  Would some nations go "nope", don't buy it, time for my own nukes?  Very likely?  Could we keep the nuclear club from becoming a rave - maybe, if we can reaffirm the security of the status quo.

I think you can start to see why I expect pressure on Ukraine will start well before we get anywhere near close to this scenario.  However, if that pressure does not come, I would take it as a clear sign that we know Putin is full of crap...which would also be wonderful.

This is all incredibly scary and unpredictable space - and it blows my mind that it is on the table in 2022.  You are absolutely correct, it could break C-WMD, I am not sold it is automatic but it would be on the table as well.  It is what makes this war so incredibly dangerous.  

 So back to "are tanks dead?"...?  

 

Many thanks for the detailed answer!

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Apart from RU native workforce these morons managed to scare away migrants too.

Have you ever wondered how did RU Empire manage to screw itself in to 1917? Well, you are about to spectate it.

You know "May you live interesting times" really is a curse. The thing that continues to amaze is that it is like no one inthe Putin regime has never read one book about RUSSIAN history.

I can't shake the image of a Vegas gambler who has obliterated his home equity loan, and is now shoving the last ten percent of his retirement account onto 27 red, just because he can't get any more bankrupt.

[Grigb]

Prigozhin PR campaign is in hyperdrive mode - we will get a movie soon about glorious Wagnerites gloriously defeating heinous UKR Nazis.

Quote

The first feature film about the feat of Russian fighters in the SMO zone

On September 21, the resources of the owner of Wagner PMCs, Yevgeny Prigozhin, distributed a trailer for a new picture about the exploits of PMCs — "The Best in Hell".

This time Prigozhin did not deny it and openly admitted that he was involved in creation the "Sunburn", and hence other movies  about the "Wagner PMCs" ("Tourist", "Granite" and the "Shugaley" trilogy).

The announcement also includes the name of Alexey Nagin, who died on September 20. His funeral was held today.

Alexey Nagin (call sign "Terek") was the main consultant for the film crews of "Sunburn" and "The Best in Hell". In the SMO zone, he commanded one of the units of the Wagner PMCs.

As for the film "The Best in Hell", it was filmed in Popasnaya and Stakhanov. During the filming, real footage of battles and strikes against Ukrainian units from the Wagner PMCs were used, among other things. The key message of the film is to show that the once united people were divided by the front line. There are seven mirror defensive lines — from the Ukrainian and Russian sides. But Russia prevails — with blood and sweat — because the truth is ours.

No vanilla [softness]: a lot of action, nuances of military life and hard male labor in the name of victory. There are also enough sad moments.

The film will be released in the first or second week of October on online platforms.

BTW Prigozhin says that his son who is Wagnerite as well got Wagnerite award - Black Cross. For post WW2 RU the Black Cross is symbol of German Nazis. These guys do not even hide the fact they are German Nazis fanboyz. 

 

[FancyCat]

It can not be underscored that mobilization and the referendums and the nuclear escalation threat to include the pending annexation lands require escalation by the West. Luckily, it seems Scholz is getting near the point of folding.

https://www.politico.eu/article/german-government-faces-domestic-pressure-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine/

 

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Hister said:

Here we go. After IFV's we are sending Ukrainians heavily upgraded oldies but goldies tanks:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/19/slovenia-is-giving-ukraine-some-very-old-tanks-but-age-can-be-deceiving/?sh=5871efa57b3f&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainFB&utm_source=ForbesMainFacebook&utm_medium=social

What would you guys say about our T-55S?

 

Those, who don't look at T-55 name, but at what inside the tank, say this is perfect tank, especially its gun with full digital FCS and APFSDS rounds, which have better penetration, than 125 mm Mango. I think, theese tanks can be placed to some air-assault or marines brigade either as "line tanks" or like "infantry support tank"  

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Prigozhin PR campaign is in hyperdrive mode - we will get a movie soon about glorious Wagnerites gloriously defeating heinous UKR Nazis.

BTW Prigozhin says that his son who is Wagnerite as well got Wagnerite award - Black Cross. For post WW2 RU the Black Cross is symbol of German Nazis. These guys do not even hide the fact they are German Nazis fanboyz. 

 

The director exhorts the actors with threats of immediate enlistment if they are insufficiently sincere, and he isn't joking. I am sure production is well underway.

The fact that Prigozhin has an adult son who is even minimally competent, and they are promoting the fact, makes it even clearer that they are angling to restore the monarchy. Putin would already have had himself crowned if he had a competent adult son.

Off the rails is an inadequate description...

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, womble said:

It'd be the end of NATO because the nuclear trump card would make NATO's existence pointless unless they were willing to answer nuke with nuke.

This is not accurate. NATO has lots of space to escalate conventionally, economically, etc without resorting immediately to nuclear weapons in Ukraine. An imposition of a no-fly zone would be just the beginning of it.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Those, who don't look at T-55 name, but at what inside the tank, say this is perfect tank, especially its gun with full digital FCS and APFSDS rounds, which have better penetration, than 125 mm Mango. I think, theese tanks can be placed to some air-assault or marines brigade either as "line tanks" or like "infantry support tank"  

Virtually everything but the Abrams is an eggshell armed with a hammer, at that point it is all about who has the fastest hammer. These might be a stealthy winner.

[Aragorn2002]

22 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

It can not be underscored that mobilization and the referendums and the nuclear escalation threat to include the pending annexation lands require escalation by the West. Luckily, it seems Scholz is getting near the point of folding.

https://www.politico.eu/article/german-government-faces-domestic-pressure-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine/

 

I agree. The West has to go all in with regard to the delivery of weapons. Even if that means weakening our own armed forces to a critical level. We can kick Iwan's *** any time and anywhere we feel like it. We never get an opportunity to make Putin bleed like this again.

Are we going to back down because of nuclear bluff by a criminal maffia thug? 

NO!!

Edited September 24, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, Butschi said:

This.

Exactly. 

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Those, who don't look at T-55 name, but at what inside the tank, say this is perfect tank, especially its gun with full digital FCS and APFSDS rounds, which have better penetration, than 125 mm Mango. I think, theese tanks can be placed to some air-assault or marines brigade either as "line tanks" or like "infantry support tank"  

Apologies for splitting this up.

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/06/28/us-army-unveils-contract-to-build-new-light-tank-for-infantry-forces/

The light/medium tank with a 105 mm high velocity gun is such a compelling use case that the U.S. Army feels the need to reinvent it.  This really needs to make the next module, for experimentation purposes.

Edited September 24, 2022 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

On 9/23/2022 at 6:10 PM, Calamine Waffles said:

@Grigb this is the paper I mentioned I am writing on comparing the T-64BV 2017 and T-72B3M (2016): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1DBBz-3MkZUoBLnvRX8qyFtMZmn8rKslAsgG4-8_Y1SM/edit
 

I need to update it to add more information about tank combat in Ukraine that has occurred since the Kyiv withdrawal in April (such as the information from Shawshank Redemption's channel and the interview with Roman Bahaiev etc.), but I'd welcome your feedback (and that of anyone else knowledgeable about Ukrainian and Russian armour).

Something more generalized about tank combat and in particular about T-64BV mod.2017 we can get only after the war, all what we know now is just small parts of mosaic. 

What I found slightly incorrect in your article after brief reading:

- "Nizh" ERA doesn't protect against tandem HEAT

- not "remontmy rot", but "remontnaya rota"

[pavel.k]

Frankly i have poor feeling about NATO. It behave or at least looks like a scared bunch of politicians.
NATO had a solid informations that Russia is going to invade Ukraine and yet it was declaring loudly no intervention. So it practically gave a green light to invasion. If it would demonstrate its power and will to fight, invasion would be probably canceled. They had several months to prepare for it.
And now they are just waiting for tactical nukes to be launched by Russians. And if it will happen (i really hope that not but current NATO attitude is raising probability every day), they will start to debate what to do...
Right now there should be flying B-52s and B-1s along the border from Baltics down to Turkey every day, SEAD strike packages should occasionally be locking SAM radars from behind the borders, NATO fleets cruising Turkey and Romanian waters in Black See and Ground forces beeing ready at borders to invade Belarus.
These should be the backdrops of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russians would be scared to make any bad move, Russian population would have fear from NATO finally for true reasons.
Then i would be sure that NATO is able to protect Europe.  

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

You just made Bulletpoint's case for him   Few, including Ukrainians, thought Putin would be stupid enough to launch a full scale attack on Ukraine because it would fail and he'd be deposed (or at least attempted).  And yet Putin did exactly what rational analysis said was a really dumb and self defeating thing.

Can we trust that Putin is not dumb enough to try a tac nuke even though we have concluded it's a self defeating move?

I don't think we should be that complacent.  Which means we should proceed with the notion that nukes are on the table and take it into consideration when planning.

To continue with Bulletpoint's robber analogy, you're standing there with a gun in your face and you wonder if the gun is loaded.  You resist, he shoots you in the leg.  OK, loaded and he's also willing to shoot.  If 5 cops with drawn guns come around the corner, how sure are you that the robber is going to put down his gun and surrender instead of trying to shoot his way out of the bad situation?

While I don't think we should ease up on destroying Russia economically and militarily, I do think it is a very bad idea to do it without taking nukes into consideration.

Steve

It’s important to put Putin’s decision in a larger context than battlefield success or failure in Ukraine. In that larger context, he just had a *very* bad week. China’s MoFA head explicitly warned against escalation…and clearly was talking about Russia and nuclear weapons. India directly addressed that issue also, in a public setting, with Putin himself. The CSTO states have, while squabbling in ways that underscore Russia’s collapsing ability to coerce them, went further in separating themselves from Russian policy. Et cetera, et cetera. I have heard it described as the worst week in Russian diplomatic affairs that anyone can remember. 

Putin’s response to these events was, in effect, to tell China and India to go f themselves. That tells us a couple of important things. First, Putin sees at least the credible threat of using nuclear weapons as more important than relations with his closest ally and his largest arms customer. That tells us how profoundly weak his position is. Second, it is without doubt true that he knows and has been told that Russia will be a pariah state on par with North Korea if he pulls that particular trigger. And of course, this week North Korea went to the trouble pointedly disavowing any arms sales to Russia. 

The diplomatic and military costs of dropping a nuke are now very, very clear to Russia. The cost of using the threat is already priced in. My personal expectation would be that where we are now on the question of use/non-use is likely where we stay.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My personal expectation would be that where we are now on the question of use/non-use is likely where we stay.

So will the drunk, broke gambler push his last three chips into the pot? or not? I understood every sentence but the last one?

Edited September 24, 2022 by dan/california

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Frankly i have poor feeling about NATO. It behave or at least looks like a scared bunch of politicians.
NATO had a solid informations that Russia is going to invade Ukraine and yet it was declaring loudly no intervention. So it practically gave a green light to invasion. If it would demonstrate its power and will to fight, invasion would be probably canceled. They had several months to prepare for it.
And now they are just waiting for tactical nukes to be launched by Russians. And if it will happen (i really hope that not but current NATO attitude is raising probability every day), they will start to debate what to do...
Right now there should be flying B-52s and B-1s along the border from Baltics down to Turkey every day, SEAD strike packages should occasionally be locking SAM radars from behind the borders, NATO fleets cruising Turkey and Romanian waters in Black See and Ground forces beeing ready at borders to invade Belarus.
These should be the backdrops of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russians would be scared to make any bad move, Russian population would have fear from NATO finally for true reasons.
Then i would be sure that NATO is able to protect Europe.  

NATO will go to war, if there's no other option left. Apart from that I think your post is ill-informed and unfair. NATO responds, it doesn't provoke.

[dan/california]

We haven't folded yet. I doubt she put that out without phoning home first.

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

@Zeleban has said Shahed is easy target for MANPAD, but from what I heard from soldiers, all more difficult. 

Indeed this drone has the engine similar to the bike and it has air cooling, so his heating can be too low for firm lock of MANPAD or any IR-homing missile. Next problem relatively low altitude of flight. We havn't 100 % radar covering and probably our radars are working in flickering mode and constantly move to avoid missile strike, so not always theese drones can be detected timely. 

Soldiers and some ecxperts say that really kinetic systems and even rifles and MG can be effective, but if this asset will be deployed on potential roure of theese drones. Though we gave some troub;es with AA guns. As said Tatras Chmut, director of charity fund "Back-and-Alive", which has license for wepon systems import, we have defficite of ZU-23-2 in about 400 guns. Also barrels to ZU-23-2 and Shilkas also can be problem soon. 

Four drones were shot down with Buk near Mykolaiv and AD SAM (Buk or even S-300) shot dowm Shahed near Dinipo, not MANPAD. So, theese drones can be detected by TELARs and shot with semi-active or active missiiles. Also, I think Strela-10M3 can shot theese drones, using optical channel of guiding. 

 

I think everyone who has dealt with motorcycles knows that an air-cooled engine is hotter than a water-cooled engine. MANPADS shoot down Orlan-10 without any problems, which has a much more advanced and cold engine.

Strela -10 does not have an optical guidance channel. It has Tunguska and SA-8 Gecko.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Zeleban

[poesel]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Such drones are easy targets for MANPADS, they are very noisy and slow. There is a video on Twitter of shooting down such a drone from a MANPADS, which means that its thermal signature allows the thermal homing head to capture. As for artillery systems with radar guidance (Gepard, Shilka), I can’t say.

Given the size of the training targets they used in '83, I would guess that drones of that size are an easy target for the gepard.

36 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

It can not be underscored that mobilization and the referendums and the nuclear escalation threat to include the pending annexation lands require escalation by the West. Luckily, it seems Scholz is getting near the point of folding.

https://www.politico.eu/article/german-government-faces-domestic-pressure-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine/

The pressure is mounting, but Scholz can be quite stubborn. I'm not sure that he will fold.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It’s important to put Putin’s decision in a larger context than battlefield success or failure in Ukraine. In that larger context, he just had a *very* bad week. China’s MoFA head explicitly warned against escalation…and clearly was talking about Russia and nuclear weapons. India directly addressed that issue also, in a public setting, with Putin himself. The CSTO states have, while squabbling in ways that underscore Russia’s collapsing ability to coerce them, went further in separating themselves from Russian policy. Et cetera, et cetera. I have heard it described as the worst week in Russian diplomatic affairs that anyone can remember. 

Putin’s response to these events was, in effect, to tell China and India to go f themselves. That tells us a couple of important things. First, Putin sees at least the credible threat of using nuclear weapons as more important than relations with his closest ally and his largest arms customer. That tells us how profoundly weak his position is. Second, it is without doubt true that he knows and has been told that Russia will be a pariah state on par with North Korea if he pulls that particular trigger. And of course, this week North Korea went to the trouble pointedly disavowing any arms sales to Russia. 

The diplomatic and military costs of dropping a nuke are now very, very clear to Russia. The cost of using the threat is already priced in. My personal expectation would be that where we are now on the question of use/non-use is likely where we stay.

This plus the discussions we had before put into perspective something I have been going on about for some time...options.  The trouble with doing a proxy war with irrational nuclear power is that as you compress their options - and we have definitely been doing that - they keep falling back until they get to the only one left, nuclear weapon employment.

We have piled up the costs on this, and you note, have clearly articulated them - yet, at least on the surface, it still looks like Russia considers them a viable option.  Further, at what point is Russia at the "well nothing left to lose"?

The problem with being able to call BS on Russia in this circumstance is that we have zero history to pull on - "I don't know general, I have been in as many nuclear wars as you".  Every nuclear power has a theoretical red-line but we have never pushed one to that point. We came close back in Cuba but that wasn't a shooting war.

I have to believe that someone in the chain of command is going to see that their survival and best interests are in putting a bullet in Putin before it comes to that and a saner head will prevail but based on this entire war I do have doubts.

[Zeleban]

The whole problem of using MANPADS is the short range. This requires an advance position for shooting. Large air defense systems such as S-300 or Buk are much more effective in this sense. In addition, MANPADS are a weapon for covering troops on the front line, and all videos of the downing of Iranian kamikaze drones from the deep rear, which is covered by large air defense systems