How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

48 minutes ago, chrisl said:

As far as the Kerch bridge goes - I'd consider just hitting the rail bridge first.  It would eliminate the best supply route that Russia has available, and put pressure on the trucks/motor vehicles that they need for supplying the main fronts.

It would also leave a way out for lighter elements/panicking potential future civilian issues that could be interdicted if the RU tried evacuating their heavy gear.

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, akd said:

More imagery:

Not sure if this “2 in Hexagon” is related to 2nd GMRD or not. Might be a BTGr marking.

Here is seen belonging of this T-90M - 2nd GMRD. Before a war its 1st GTR received first party of T-90M

PS. BTGs never had own tactical symbols.

 

Edited September 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Sorry for off-topic, but that's a helluva reenactment! 

 

Edited September 18, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

If Russia starts firing tactical nukes into Ukraine, how would they do it?

- Iskander (100 kt)

- Kh-101 (250 kt / 1 Mt)

- Kh-22 (350 kt/ 1 Mt)

- 152 mm artllery shell (2,6 kt)

- 203 mm artillery (2 kt)

Latter two allegedly out of service, because their last batch was made in 1990, but shelf life for nuclear artillery shells is 10 years 

[Kraft]

Newest LivemapUA update

[Haiduk]

Russians hit Sloviansk thermal power plant

 

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Newest LivemapUA update

Battle of Osgiliath went way better than in original time line

[Haiduk]

Emotions of Ukr soldiers before assault of enemy positions

 

[Grigb]

Looks like the Kremlin is intensifying campaign against RU Nats who are not under Kremlin control. Civilian "Girkin" aka Nesmyan reports

Quote

The VKontakte network has started blocking the collection of money for a special operation.

VK is a servile resource. Without an order from supervising comrade majors [from FSB], it would not risk doing such initiative.

Previously we saw Kremlin made it difficult to import dual purpose equipment using RU Nat channels. Now the Kremlin is trying to cut RU Nat financing.

BTW financing of RU regulars unofficial supply comes from the same channels. So, Kremlin is breaking RU army supply as well. Neither Putin no Guardian faction will survive defeat - too many of Putin actions aimed at ensuring his survival made RU military situation worse.

On other hand uncontrollable RU Nats might not survive defeat as well - it is difficult to fight without money. 

[poesel]

Is that just a Twitter rumor, or did Chechens and Wagner really fight in Kherson?

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

Is that just a Twitter rumor, or did Chechens and Wagner really fight in Kherson?

Local collaborant Stremousov told this was "trainings" %)

[Kinophile]

 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

When the company has 4 APC instead 10. Typical picture since 2017

Edited September 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

30 minutes ago, Huba said:

Battle of Osgiliath went way better than in original time line

Wow

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Over shadowed by events in Kherson and the lingering effects of the Kharkiv offensive is the Donbas front.  Ukraine has not only stopped the northern portion of the attack, but is actively retaking ground.  This is the second report of Ukrainian gains:

https://censor.net/en/news/3367744/dibrova_village_in_donetsk_region_returns_to_ukrainian_flag_soldier_of_national_guard_videophotos

Yet the Wagner led forces are still pressing to take Bahkmut.  Is there a washing machine factory there or something?  Because I don't understand what the point of attacking there is otherwise.

Steve

Collective decision making is important, none the least that you can allow for varied opinions, if Wagner wants Bahkmut, then by God they will take it, damn anything else. Who can command Wagner to stop anyway? 
 

True on the accurate losses except the rout in Kharkiv was propelled just as much from the units breaking and fleeing as any order from high command. Kiev, I can agree with. It’s notable despite a string of defeats, continued inability to reform. Kiev, Snake Island, Kharkiv, Kherson. True that Russia really has little to reform with but still. I still think a unnerving part of this comes from a complete misjudgment of Ukraine. (unnerving precisely cause no matter the ISR or the very real defeats due to Ukraine, too much of those in power rely on Ukrainian inferiority to prop up their worldview, a expression showing all the data in the world matters little if it’s fed into a trash bin)

I know this has been discussed on this thread, but this YouTuber took the time to lay it out and I missed this discussion, so I’ll bring it up (in case others missed it too) again especially in the context of unrelenting misplaced superiority by the Russians in assuming Ukrainian capability and complete failed judgement in their ability to make war.

Start at 11:00 if you want the important bits. No idea if it’s true, I didn’t verify. He talks about a maintenance report issued 14 days before the beginning of the invasion. The tweet linked has a machine translation. The short range 2x 9K33 Osa SAM systems were not working, the 6x AK-630 phalanx missile short range interception system, only one worked, the rest were cannibalized for parts. The AK-130 twin gun turret also didn’t work. 

Damage control systems, waterproof doors had leaking, the 50 (supposed to be 500) fire extinguishers were locked up to prevent thief. Many indication systems didn’t not function, the ship could only perform a 30-degree turn.

Sure, between February and April, maybe the ship resolved its issues, but…considering its sinking via two missiles, more likely it did not. 

Considering the extremely sorry state of the cruiser, it was still deployed. 

 

 

[Grigb]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Over shadowed by events in Kherson and the lingering effects of the Kharkiv offensive is the Donbas front.  Ukraine has not only stopped the northern portion of the attack, but is actively retaking ground.  This is the second report of Ukrainian gains:

https://censor.net/en/news/3367744/dibrova_village_in_donetsk_region_returns_to_ukrainian_flag_soldier_of_national_guard_videophotos

Yet the Wagner led forces are still pressing to take Bahkmut.  Is there a washing machine factory there or something?  Because I don't understand what the point of attacking there is otherwise.

Steve

PR for Prigozhin. Telegram is full of comments that Wagnerites did not get RU High command message to retreat, so they are advancing instead!

Additionally, RU command is trying to portray Kharkiv disaster as an isolated incident. But for that you need to show advance somewhere else - hence Wagnerites ramming Bakhmut frontally and trying to encircle it from south. 

[FancyCat]

32 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Looks like the Kremlin is intensifying campaign against RU Nats who are not under Kremlin control. Civilian "Girkin" aka Nesmyan reports

Previously we saw Kremlin made it difficult to import dual purpose equipment using RU Nat channels. Now the Kremlin is trying to cut RU Nat financing.

BTW financing of RU regulars unofficial supply comes from the same channels. So, Kremlin is breaking RU army supply as well. Neither Putin no Guardian faction will survive defeat - too many of Putin actions aimed at ensuring his survival made RU military situation worse.

On other hand uncontrollable RU Nats might not survive defeat as well - it is difficult to fight without money. 

The difference between Ukraine’s vibrant and dynamic civil society and Russia’s is night and day. Something many critics and naysayers of Ukraine seem to ignore.

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The difference between Ukraine’s vibrant and dynamic civil society and Russia’s is night and day. Something many critics and naysayers of Ukraine seem to ignore.

Yes. Extremely different societies. Unfortunately, UKR society is infected with seeds of RU society. It will need some time to get rid of them completely. 

[Grigb]

Interesting Mashkovets posts

Quote

The command of the enemy troops is gradually restoring its grouping in the Belgorod region. At least, yesterday it even tried to attack the AFU positions near the village of Hoptovka.

Yes, this is what remains of the 2nd brigades of the 6th CAA and the 11th AK (theoretically- up to 8 BTGr, in reality - there are only 4). There are also several company groups from the 14th AK, 20th CAA and 1st Guards Tank Army "digging in" somewhere there.

Good afternoon, dear readers!

It is obvious that the period of activity is replaced again by a period of positional battles, and the next attempts by both sides to "attack" are reduced to "minimal tactical" pace. Today — some current news.

So, that what I wrote about the day before yesterday, is beginning to acquire practical contours. The Russian command finally realized what advance of the AFU from the Dvorichna–Kupyansk line could do [to RU situation].

This resulted in a series of short enemy counterattacks in the Kupyansk area (apparently, by the forces of the "consolidated" BTGr of the 3rd msd of the 20th CAA). The main goal is to stop the advance of the AFU at the maximum possible distance to the west and northwest of Svatove.

It was speed up after the liberation of the left-bank part of Kupyansk, when it became clear that the AFU was not going to relax at all on the right bank of the Oskil River, at least not now and not in the northern part of the Luhansk region.

Moreover, considering that on the left bank of the Oskil, intense counter-battles are now continuing NOT ONLY in the Kupyansk area. It is clear that in such an environment, anyone will "get nervous".

Just imagine the situation for the Russian command and the troops subordinate to it, if the AFU does break through, even if not to Svatove himself, but even just to the north of it. [hints at threatening the highway at Troitske-Pokrovske]

And [then] on the opposite side of this "frontier" at this moment, the AFU will pass the Liman – Yampol line and go to Kremennaya and Rubezhnoye. In this case, the "return" to the frontiers on February 24 and the "revival" of the OOS [UKR 2014-2022 operation in L-DPR] in the Luhansk region becomes a very real matter with all the military and political consequences for the bunker f*cktard.

This is what RU command is very worried about. Over the past 3-4 days, it has significantly increased the level of intensity of aerial reconnaissance in the strip from the border to Lozove, along the entire left bank of the Oskol and the territories adjacent to it from the east.

The intensity of recorded overflights of enemy reconnaissance UAVs in this place reached 65-70 times a day. In addition, our group (IS) recorded the movement during the last two days of at least three engineer-sapper units of the enemy at the platoon-company level through Starobilsk to Svatovo, as well as from the south, also to the Svatovo area.

Moreover, various earthmoving equipment is present in the columns — excavators, graders, ZMRM.

Map for reference (underlined mentioned settlements and areas in red)

[akd]

Interesting exchange amongst RU channels on events in Kharkiv and the future in Kherson:

 

[Haiduk]

Lyman direction

Different twitter accounts have told today about UKR troops liberated Yatskivka and Yarova and entered to villages Studenok, Sosnove and Oleksandrivka. Enough intensive clashes for Rubtsi village.

UKR media wrote today only about Yarova liberation, but officially this not confirmed yet

One twitter acoount who have familiars in villages Yatskivka and Rubtsi wrote all remained inhabitants were evacuated by Russians to Svatove.

Edited September 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Letter from Prague]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russians hit Sloviansk thermal power plant

 

I wonder what Ukraine can do here. AD can help but will not entirely prevent it. They can't strike back due to the Western limits. That limits are never going to go away because Russia will threaten nukes in case of counterattack.

Long term this will prevent any reconstruction of Ukraine and investment there, keeping it destroyed and impoverished. And Russia has enough missiles (if ****ty and inaccurate ones) to keep doing this once a week for decades if they want to.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I wonder what Ukraine can do here. AD can help but will not entirely prevent it. They can't strike back due to the Western limits. That limits are never going to go away because Russia will threaten nukes in case of counterattack.

Long term this will prevent any reconstruction of Ukraine and investment there, keeping it destroyed and impoverished. And Russia has enough missiles (if ****ty and inaccurate ones) to keep doing this once a week for decades if they want to.

The Russian economy can't keep doing what it's doing by early next spring. By that point, Ukrainian utilities are going to be way down on their list of problems.

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I wonder what Ukraine can do here. AD can help but will not entirely prevent it. They can't strike back due to the Western limits. That limits are never going to go away because Russia will threaten nukes in case of counterattack.

Long term this will prevent any reconstruction of Ukraine and investment there, keeping it destroyed and impoverished. And Russia has enough missiles (if ****ty and inaccurate ones) to keep doing this once a week for decades if they want to.

There has been a great deal of discussion of the Ukrainian missile program. It is ~750 km from Kharkiv to Moscow. Moscow is literally the only city in Russia that matters at ALL. If I was an engineer in the Ukrainian missile program I would go sleep thinking about that number, and wake up thinking about that number, so I could drink coffee and think about that number some more. However cold it gets in Ukraine, it gets a lot colder in Moscow. I invite you to draw your own conclusions.

Edit: taking out Putin's summer palace in Sochi might make a nice demonstration that Russia has entered the find out phase.

Edited September 18, 2022 by dan/california

[akd]

Captured T-72B3M tows away the captured T-90M, aka Shame Train: