How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MSBoxer]

54 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Next you take drones with fancy optics and put them at a safe distance (for example above your own territory) to higher altitude and observe from there the suspected spots.

Much like balloons used for spotting in WW 1

[Huba]

15 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

My previuos little crazy suggestion to infiltrate into Bryansk, Orel and Kursk had not any feedback understandably.
But what about going to Troitske through Urazovo by taking this little piece of Russia federation? It is much shorter distance with good road.
What would be Russia reaction? Would be Putler forced to begin general mobilization due this very little slice of taken territory or even use it as justification for use of tactical nuke?

That would be a shocker for RU, bthat's for sure. We could even call it an escalation I personally love the idea, gives UA a bargaining chip for the future too. And RU wouldn't have a choice but to counterattack and take it back, which means moving reserves there. Plus Putin might suffer a heart attack on the spot... 

Putin definitely would have a reason to announce mobilization, he would be under immense pressure to do so. Which in turn might collapse the whole house of cards even faster. Question is, what would US reaction be to this "tactical incursion"?

Edited September 17, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

Kyrgyzstan hospitalized 103 after clashes on border with Tajikistan (msn.com)

[TheVulture]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Question is, what would US reaction be to this "tactical incursion"?

Incursion? What incursion? I can't see anything.

[dan/california]

43 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The guy, callsign Loki, from this known photo, was killed two days ago. 

 

Peace to his family

Glory to Ukraine

Napalm to the Russian B&%$$$DS

31 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

My previuos little crazy suggestion to infiltrate into Bryansk, Orel and Kursk had not any feedback understandably.
But what about going to Troitske through Urazovo by taking this little piece of Russia federation? It is much shorter distance with good road.
What would be Russia reaction? Would be Putler forced to begin general mobilization due this very little slice of taken territory or even use it as justification for use of tactical nuke?

 

13 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Incursion? What incursion? I can't see anything.

This, run a task force through there to flank the position and then deny the bleep out of it. Give the Russians a taste of their own medicine when it comes to trying have a conversation when the other side just lies and denies. I am copyrighting this phrase. "LIE  AND DENY" is the new name for Russias communication strategy, you heard it here first.

[Huba]

Russians localized a resistance cell there perhaps? Dang, that's sad  Really wish they will get HIMARSed in a moment.

Edited September 17, 2022 by Huba

[Letter from Prague]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

Russians localized a resistance cell there perhaps? Dang, that's sad  Really wish they will get HIMARSed in a moment.

There's still a chance it's Russians and Chechens shooting each other or something.

[Grigb]

Another episode Why you should not trust Rybar together with episode The best RU Finest Zeks can do.

Today's episode is about Bakhmut that Wagnerites assaults for more than one month. So, what did they achieve after that time? Well, today at 6 PM Rybar forwarded a post from another RU Nat about the situation at Bakhmut with attached map (silly one, no need to see):

Quote

"the "musicians" moved forward along Patrice Lumumba Street and gained a foothold on the outskirts of the dacha cooperative (on the map);

Great victory, isn't it? While RU regulars ran away at Izum Wagnerite zeks continue to advance forward! Except they did not. It is epic debacle and sign that UKR kicked their *ss. 

If you look at the proper map advancing forward along Lumumba street invariably leads to the Industrial zone. The zone to where they already advanced month ago!

 Here is another map with the zone highlighted

 

So, to where exactly did these clowns advance? Well, there is one Dacha Cooperative...

Rybar is BSing his readers hoping without proper maps they would notice nothing. Be careful with his posts, verify everything this propaganda clown (or rather clowns) writes.

Now, this is what most likely happened:

1. Some time in August UKR counter-attacked and kicked Wagnerites out of industrial zone
2. UKR could not completely wipe out Wagnerites, most probably because RU fire support can easily hit targets at outskirts
3. UKR left Wagnerites there but blocked them from advancing further
4. Wagnerites unable to advance are probing along the front line
5. These probes are reported by RU propaganda as proof that RU advance at Bakhmut is not stalled 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, pavel.k said:

My previuos little crazy suggestion to infiltrate into Bryansk, Orel and Kursk had not any feedback understandably.
But what about going to Troitske through Urazovo by taking this little piece of Russia federation? It is much shorter distance with good road.
What would be Russia reaction? Would be Putler forced to begin general mobilization due this very little slice of taken territory or even use it as justification for use of tactical nuke?

According to RU reports

Quote

Briefly regarding  Oskil front. Heavy fighting continues, the Ukrainians are trying to break through our defenses along the [Oskil] river. Large forces of the AFU, up to 40 units of heavy equipment (tanks, self-propelled guns) are concentrated in Dvorichna. Apparently, the Ukrainians regrouped and decided to ram [our defenses] in the near future.

Here is the map:

The blue arrow is suspected UKR strike. Two red lines are where RU defenses are being built according to Mashkovets. He did not specify what RU has between Nizhne Duvanka and RU border but due to the context of the post I think it is weakly defended.

Once UKR advanced enough to threaten the road with arty the whole part of RU defenses at Souther part becomes much less useful. Because road traffic will have to be routed through Starobilsk anyway. Here is map with M777 range

Also, I would say UKR are planning another strike in the south - if they break through Kreminna the whole RU defense will collapse and they will run toward Starobilsk and river Aidar. 

[G.I. Joe]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Kinda comes off like a millennial just 'discovered' that nuclear war is a thing.  Boomers and X'ers grew up with that gun to the head basically since birth - "Climate change? Sure if you want to wait around for a century.  Lemme tell you about how mankind can really kill us all in a weekend, son!" 

I was born in summer of '81, so I'm just barely young enough to count as a Millennial...or barely old enough to count as a Gen-X'er, but I think 1980 is more commonly used as the dividing line than '82. Either way, I'm just old enough to remember losing sleep over nuclear war as a kid in the late Eighties.

This reminds of once back in '01 when my best friend and I were in a college course together and he mentioned being attracted to a young lady in one of his other classes who was slightly older than he was (i.e. about my age). As an example of how she was a bit older, he mentioned how she had talked about growing up in Czechoslovakia and having been afraid the U.S. would attack them back in the Eighties during the Cold War. I looked at him with a mixture of surprise and bemusement and said "what, don't you remember being afraid the Soviets would attack us?" He didn't... I think that might have been my first "that makes me feel old" moment.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

Much like balloons used for spotting in WW 1

You don't need to go back 100 years for that example

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/history/ptds.html

[MSBoxer]

12 minutes ago, JonS said:

You don't need to go back 100 years for that example

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/history/ptds.html

I agree, but to my knowledge that was the first mass use of technology for aerial observation.

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

Correct.

In real life you send a cheap (means no fancy zoom/thermals optics) drone (or rather drones) first. Once it (they) is(are) down you know the limits of enemy big AD/EW stuff. Next you take drones with fancy optics and put them at a safe distance (for example above your own territory) to higher altitude and observe from there the suspected spots.

 

Moderately fancy zoom and thermals can be cheap if you have the technology to build them in enormous quantities.  See modern smartphones.

You can also put the ones at "higher altitude" up at a few hundred miles altitude and fly enough of them that you have continuous coverage.  Starlink and Planet Labs are really just the beginning. 

Both of the above depend on a depth and breadth of technological capability that's available to the west, marginally available to China (who can probably catch up), and potentially available to India eventually.

[kevinkin]

4 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

first mass use of technology for aerial observation

Not in any way a large contingent:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_Army_Balloon_Corps#Establishing_the_Corps

but in case some may not know about their trials in the US Civil War, here is a link Knowledge of where the enemy is and with what is a never ending problem. 

 

[JonS]

If you want to go really olde schule, Napolean used balloons for obs. At the Nile, iirc

Edit, and a few years before that - with enhanced optics!

https://www.centennialofflight.net/essay/Lighter_than_air/Napoleon's_wars/LTA3.htm

Edited September 17, 2022 by JonS

[Haiduk]

Some riverine action

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Russians localized a resistance cell there perhaps?

Most likely, even though that would mean Russia is telling the truth about something

Videos weren't clear enough for me, but it looks like one of the vehicles has 3rd Army Corps markings and other one looked to be a BRDM.

If the markings are indeed 3rd Army Corps, this indicates that Russia elected to use some of its limited transportation capacity to get them over to that side of the river.  Maybe they felt they didn't have enough forces to keep the rear under control?  Or are these guys now at the frontline?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some riverine action

 

Is that a dead Russian soldier in garbage bags in a dugout at the end?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Another episode Why you should not trust Rybar together with episode The best RU Finest Zeks can do.

Good one.  Thanks.

Yup, we have seen quite a few of these selective reports, haven't we?  The propagandists rely on their readers keying off of the words "advanced!" instead of the specifics.  No double checking dates, maps, previous reports, etc.  It's just "OK, Rybar says we're advancing and that's good enough for me".  In this case Rybar seems to have neglected to mention this territory was previously in Wagner's hands.

I wonder how many times Wagner will take this same ground?  Rybar will have to try hard to have it be the most taken place on the front.  Pisky has set a very high bar

Steve

[Zeleban]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Это что, мертвый русский солдат в мусорных мешках в землянке в конце?

Стив

 

Yes, the operator says that these are the bastards who shot at his bro, "Estonian"

[Zeleban]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Is that a dead Russian soldier in garbage bags in a dugout at the end?

Steve

Yes, the operator says that these are the bastards who shot at his bro, "Estonian"

[Grigb]

56 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Moderately fancy zoom and thermals can be cheap if you have the technology to build them in enormous quantities.  See modern smartphones.

I do not support logic - let make expendable things more complex and more expensive just because we can.

 

56 minutes ago, chrisl said:

You can also put the ones at "higher altitude" up at a few hundred miles altitude and fly enough of them that you have continuous coverage.  Starlink and Planet Labs are really just the beginning. 

Right now, you do not have that. But important thing is that everybody understands that so it a matter of time before antisatellite weapons will appear. 

So, in reality both drones and satellites are needed. 

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Both of the above depend on a depth and breadth of technological capability that's available to the west, marginally available to China (who can probably catch up), and potentially available to India eventually.

Superiority in multiple spheres does not mean that there are no shortcomings. For example, lack of experience and understanding of drone warfare is one. I already explained that while US Swarm exercise is good, swarm tactic needs to be improved significantly.

[Grigb]

Probably it as already announced but just in case - according to Girkin UKR continue to expand Bridgehead at Inhulets. They captured Mala Seidemynukha (means Novohrednjeve is also captured). he also claims there is fighting at Bezimenne - it looks like RU is counter attacking from other side than before.

 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

I do not support logic - let make expendable things more complex and more expensive just because we can.

 

Right now, you do not have that. But important thing is that everybody understands that so it a matter of time before antisatellite weapons will appear. 

So, in reality both drones and satellites are needed. 

Superiority in multiple spheres does not mean that there are no shortcomings. For example, lack of experience and understanding of drone warfare is one. I already explained that while US Swarm exercise is good, swarm tactic needs to be improved significantly.

Not more expensive because we can- more capable because it’s cheap.  

Anti sat already exists, but is much harder against the masses of satellites that we’re headed for.

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Not more expensive because we can- more capable because it’s cheap.  

Anti sat already exists, but is much harder against the masses of satellites that we’re headed for.

Redundant systems are what is needed in this day and age.  You can never be too sure what the enemy is capable of doing to your stuff and you should never be sure what your enemy is capable of in the first place.  I  bet nobody in the Kremlin ever thought that Ukraine would have the ISR capabilities of NATO at its disposal, not to mention buying time on a commercial satellite.  Then again, the Kremlin thought they would take Ukraine out in 3 days, so there's that

Steve