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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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3 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Fanciful speculation:

Putin seeing that things are looking less likely to end well for himself, quietly transfers a portion of his personal wealth to China. 

Or just for the sake of argument, how about this for the 'least worse' successor?

Lukashenko (!) moves over to the Kremlin as the head of a Unified State.  Putin 'retires'.  While Luka isn't in any way blameless in the Ukraine invasion, he clearly isn't one of the masterminds either (lol). He's an outsider, so theoretically acceptable to all Moscow factions, who all think they can outsmart the bumpkin in time. He talks an endless stream of bombastic smack, but eventually agrees to some kind of withdrawal / cease fire [I don't want to sidetrack instantly onto what borders, terms, etc.]

Galeev wrote this in April:

....FWIW, he thinks Luka is a lot smarter than he looks.

But setting that aside, like a certain Western politician who shall remain nameless, it seems clear Luka doesn't care much what comes out of his mouth, or about what others think of him (or about what others think about anything  really).  But the guy does stay pretty laser focused on what he's decided he needs, and is quite good at sorting out what and who really matters in terms of going after it, and ignoring the rest.

It's almost certain Luka would run Moscow a lot more 'federally', playing off various regional barons and rival ministries. In contrast, Putin is entirely a big city technocrat, a creature of the centre.

Think about it:  that in itself would be a big improvement. A Russia that's internally focused, run by a blowhard who talks a lot, but won't really act on anything beyond domestic meat and potatoes issues, and dividing of spoils. And actually, Russia could use some inward focus and reshuffling. Like, for the next 20 years or so.

TL:DR, the 'lawn bowler' replaces the 'chess player'.

P.S.  Only thing is, at age 68 Luka may be too old to be a long term solution.

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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RU Nat Mangushev (that guy who declared genocide against UKR holding alleged AzovStal defender skull)

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[Let] Medvedev to [be] president.
[Let] Prigozhin - to [be] the Ministers of Defense / foreign Affairs / director of the FSB and everything in general.

The current ones are not coping

Medvedev here is for lulz (his angry posts universally met with laughter like -C'mon Dimon give it to them!). The main guy is Prigozhin. He is getting more and more popular. 

[UPDATE] just to understand who this guy is 

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Namesake, I got sick of you. The destruction of civilian infrastructure is necessary precisely because [our] military system has failed badly. Our task is to make a mess of all life in Ukraine, as the Turks made a mess of the M-4 area in 2019. Paralyze everything in general. Heat, water, electricity, food, medicine. Create a humanitarian disaster zone. So that the contingent Mykola [has to] leave the front and run to save his family from starvation and cold death. We won't break them at the front. We have to break them in the rear. You don't like it, you wanted an easy tour and a bunch of political orders [from RU gov] to accompany referendums and acquiring businesses [for yourself]. And here's a dick [for you]. You wrote about the Odessa kiosks, and I wrote that it is necessary to **** the Port. Because this is a war.

And I wanted Kiev burning from edge to edge. Just because it's beautiful. To burn Nikopol and Kiev is a living story.

And this guy wants Prigozhin. All what you need to know about Prigozhin. 

Edited by Grigb
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Interesting description of current RU Political crisis from RU Nat perspective

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Systemic crisis of trust

Throw out emotions – let's ponder it coldly. What happened in the period from September 7 to September 11 with the Russian society?

Russian patriots once again felt abandoned and betrayed. And the point it is not only and not so much about the fact of the retreat itself, but about reaction to it of [Gov] officials and speakers.

Starting with the Ferris wheel [Putin opened Ferris wheel just at the moment of collapse] and ending with the "planned regrouping" [statement of RU MOD], the positions of RU gov that it holded in the minds of of the patriotic core, the most actively involved in its SMO, abruptly flew into the abyss – even among loyalists.

As I said earlier, SMO has become more important than loyalty to the authorities, but the authorities have not realized this.

Now the cunning people from the near-kremlin offices convince the top that these are just "radicals", and the passive majority has not changed its opinion, but this is not so.

The passive majority always looks at the passionaries.

The biggest domestic political crisis in the 20 years of Vladimir Putin's rule is now taking place. It is not reflected in the election results, in rallies and processions – wartime changes the rules. But the problem is overripe.

The patriotic core requires tough measures – resignations at the highest level, economic and legal measures, legislative and military.

The countdown is already counting days [not years or moths]. The lost trust will be almost impossible to restore, and the quarrel of the authorities with the patriotic passionate core can have disastrous consequences for our state.

Any supporter of the preservation of the "limited SMO regime" and the rejection of social mobilization, of radical measures, is actually leading the country into the abyss.

I have already written earlier – the worst thing is to lose trust. To lose the right to rule in the eyes of the people. Loss of legitimacy.

Now they [somebody in RU gov] are clearly trying to bring [situation] it to this [Putin loss of legitimacy]. I am sure that this is the result of treason at the very top.

Considering that the main lobbyists of this were and are high-ranking employees of the Presidential Administration, I believe that this is an attempt at an internal coup.

But what difference does it make if no one is trying to stop them?

 

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4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I can imagine how much anyone wants to go to Ukraine to work knowing this ****.

 

 

I mean there was a video where one of those teachers boldly stated that if need arises he will take a sniper rifle and go kill some Ukrainians.

So russians said: OK.

Best part is that these bastards can't be considered POWs according to international law, just criminals.

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23 minutes ago, Grigb said:

His message seems inconsistent. He is saying that the government are conducting the "SMO" badly and things need to change, and if they don't change, terrible things will happen. But then he says that people within the administration who are trying to change things are being treasonous and attempting a coup.

Is this because the people he thinks are attempting the coup are not the right people (not the real Russian patriots)? Who or what faction is he pointing the finger at?

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The Ukrainian journalist who interviews Russian POWs has a video on a prisoner exchange in Bakhmut. It's quite long and not very focused (and the captions stopped working well half way through), but it gives a few glimpses and insights into life in a frontline city, the conditions for Ukrainian POWs and Russian interrogations (they seem to be obsessed with foreigners fighting for and training and equipping the Ukrainians).

 

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1 hour ago, kraze said:

I mean there was a video where one of those teachers boldly stated that if need arises he will take a sniper rifle and go kill some Ukrainians.

So russians said: OK.

Best part is that these bastards can't be considered POWs according to international law, just criminals.

Isn’t that the same logic for Russia’s treatment of reputedly (contested by Russia) humanitarian aid workers being killed in Ukraine?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62828238?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=62828238%26Captured Briton was possibly tortured%2C says Ukraine%262022-09-07T19%3A43%3A15.000Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:bbc:cps:curie:asset:51d13dee-a062-4326-91cb-8901d9f4f2b0&pinned_post_asset_id=62828238&pinned_post_type=share

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2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

If there were free elections in Russia even a German Shepherd would beat putin.

Depends what you mean by “free”! As others have said, tomorrow you’d not get much difference from the last election. There’s been decades of propaganda and oppression undermining the freedom and fairness of debate in Russia politics. So what people think and know is so conditioned they couldn’t really vote otherwise. 

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