How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

"The westerners and Ukrainains absolutely don't understand a fact, that for Russia such term like "unacceptable losses" just doesn't exist"

I am a pretty big fan of testing out that theory.

[Maquisard manqué]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

So I am not going to reopen the "tanks are dead...no they are not" debate...please gawd no.

However, is it just me or do light forces seem to be leading on this whole thing again?  I am sure there has been some heavy action but we still are not seeing big armor from the UA - unless I am missing something?

Maybe they’re too busy (or wise) to fight one handed, with their phones held outside the tank?

[acrashb]

19 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Those Guild Heighliners cost a full year's spice production.

Out of likes, so +1 on that - funny and true.  If RA actually does try mass use of helos for resupply, the plentiful manpads will once again show up in videos.

PS: so we can add Dune analogies to the LOTR ones?  Does that make Zelensky into Paul Atreides?

[hcrof]

Just now, The_Capt said:

So I am not going to reopen the "tanks are dead...no they are not" debate...please gawd no.

However, is it just me or do light forces seem to be leading on this whole thing again?  I am sure there has been some heavy action but we still are not seeing big armor from the UA - unless I am missing something?

Agreed, they may have been used in the initial punch but the exploitation forces look very light.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

So I am not going to reopen the "tanks are dead...no they are not" debate...please gawd no.

However, is it just me or do light forces seem to be leading on this whole thing again?  I am sure there has been some heavy action but we still are not seeing big armor from the UA - unless I am missing something?

I think we are lacking visibility mostly. We know that tanks were crucial in achieving initial breakthrough. Since then we mostly see flag raising in random places, there hardly was any actual battle footage, or even information that significant fighting happened. What can be said is that tanks seem to be absent from leading elements.

[Beleg85]

3 minutes ago, hcrof said:

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So I am not going to reopen the "tanks are dead...no they are not" debate...please gawd no.

However, is it just me or do light forces seem to be leading on this whole thing again?  I am sure there has been some heavy action but we still are not seeing big armor from the UA - unless I am missing something?

Agreed, they may have been used in the initial punch but the exploitation forces look very light.

Hard to say frankly. Some videos with tanks leading the way are definitelly there. We will need to wait for more info.

[Haiduk]

RUMINT

 - UKR troops conducted landing operation in Hotomlia and troops are moving to border town Vovchansk, Kharkiv oblast.

- UKR troops approached or even entered to Lysychansk

Edited September 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[hcrof]

On the whole tank thing, I also refer back to my earlier point that the UA are currently fighting mobiks and policemen more than modern troops. It's all very Afghanistan 2001 rather than a heavy metal war in that area. 

[Huba]

This is pure gold:

 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

I think we are lacking visibility mostly. We know that tanks were crucial in achieving initial breakthrough. Since then we mostly see flag raising in random places, there hardly was any actual battle footage, or even information that significant fighting happened. What can be said is that tanks seem to be absent from leading elements.

It is really interesting from an operational surprise point of view.  How the UA managed to do operational surprise in this day and age - even given the poorer RA systems - is beyond me.  I am wondering if they went lighter for reasons of lower profile and logistics load?

Well I guess things will become clearer in time.  Let's face it, we are going to spend years unpacking what actually happened in this war.  

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

This is pure gold:

 

Heh, there it is.  Losing about 2500 sq kms in a week = "All part of the plan"

[hcrof]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It is really interesting from an operational surprise point of view.  How the UA managed to do operational surprise in this day and age - even given the poorer RA systems - is beyond me.  I am wondering if they went lighter for reasons of lower profile and logistics load?

Well I guess things will become clearer in time.  Let's face it, we are going to spend years unpacking what actually happened in this war.  

If so, that is very bold - but the UA general staff have been very impressive so far.

[Huba]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Well I guess things will become clearer in time.  Let's face it, we are going to spend years unpacking what actually happened in this war.  

That's why I don't consider these days spent in front of the computer wasted! We'll be reading or doing plenty of analysis after the dust settles, but it will be great to be able to confront it with own memories about how it was unfolding. Also, I really hope Steve does backups of this thread, this will be a goldmine of information in upcoming years.

[Kinophile]

I'm probably jumping the gun,  but is it possible that Ukraine is going to hit the Feb 24 borders by November ? 

If that expected 3rd attack finally cracks the whole, entire front,  well...

Imagine going into winter with RUS thrown back to its starting lines... 

Getting giddy, Iknow

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[akd]

Another highly symbolic video:

 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Heh, there it is.  Losing about 2500 sq kms in a week = "All part of the plan"

Here's a full statement:

 

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, hcrof said:

On the whole tank thing, I also refer back to my earlier point that the UA are currently fighting mobiks and policemen more than modern troops. It's all very Afghanistan 2001 rather than a heavy metal war in that area. 

This is not exactly true. UKR spear just penetrated positions of weak mobik troops and further combining mech fist and SOF terror on communications caused chaos in enemy C&C and logistic. Russians had there units of 18th MRD, 144 MRD, 4th TD, 2nd MRD, 126th Rosgvardiya operative regiment (light armored infantry), 3rd Corps units, different BARS reservist battalions. But their resistsnce was broken, reserves, as says Konstantin Mashovets were throwing into the battle one by one without any plan - only to close a next hole. You can see how much losses was fixed by Orix for 9th Sep. And this is about half if not less. 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So I am not going to reopen the "tanks are dead...no they are not" debate...please gawd no.

However, is it just me or do light forces seem to be leading on this whole thing again?  I am sure there has been some heavy action but we still are not seeing big armor from the UA - unless I am missing something?

The snippets I get is classic way - light mobile forces bypass pockets of resistance, looking for undefended paths. Then mechanised hammer comes that rams helpless defenders but to bush them aside from the road. Then infantry heavy forces comes and mops up the resistance.

The thing is RU forces were not coherent Combined Arms formations. It hodgepodge of Rosguardia, mobiks and some regulars. They did not have particularly deep ATGM focused defences. Once UKR got through main belt the whole thing started to collapse.

Finally, UKR mobile forces consistently operated too deep that once RU started to roll, they could not establish defences as UKR were hitting them from behind.

[acrashb]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here's a full statement:

Awesome gaslighting.  

[Calamine Waffles]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So I am not going to reopen the "tanks are dead...no they are not" debate...please gawd no.

However, is it just me or do light forces seem to be leading on this whole thing again?  I am sure there has been some heavy action but we still are not seeing big armor from the UA - unless I am missing something?

They are primarily mechanised infantry supported by tanks. The fixed frontline has been broken through so now they are in the exploitation phase.

[hcrof]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is not exactly true. UKR spear jsut penetrated positions of weak mobik troops and further combining mech fist and SOF terror on communications caused chaos in enemy C&C and logistic. Russians had there units of 18th MRD, 144 MRD, 4th TD, 2nd MRD, 126th operative regiment (light armored infantry), 3rd Corps units, different BARS reservist battalions. But their resistsnce was broken, reserves, as says Konstantin Mashovets were throwing into the battle one by one without any plan - only to close a next hole. You can see how much losses was fixed by Orix for 9th Sep. And this is about half if not less. 

Thanks for the clarification, but I thought the regular units were in the south around izium and they mostly pulled out once the breakthrough happened north of them? 

Edit: so the actual fighting was mobiks, left behind Rosgvardiya and rear echelon troops?

Edited September 10, 2022 by hcrof

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The snippets I get is classic way - light mobile forces bypass pockets of resistance, looking for undefended paths. Then mechanised hammer comes that rams helpless defenders but to bush them aside from the road. Then infantry heavy forces comes and mops up the resistance.

The thing is RU forces were not coherent Combined Arms formations. It hodgepodge of Rosguardia, mobiks and some regulars. They did not have particularly deep ATGM focused defences. Once UKR got through main belt the whole thing started to collapse.

Finally, UKR mobile forces consistently operated too deep that once RU started to roll, they could not establish defences as UKR were hitting them from behind.

Nice, infiltration, isolation, push, finish - repeat.  It definitely happened fast up at Kharkiv.  Still slower at Kherson but we are only a week in and the RA on the wrong side of the river are going to run out of gas and ammo, and maybe resolve sooner than later. 

[Beleg85]

Regarding rumours about clashes in Lysychansk, Melitopol, people waving flags in other cities behind Russian lines- it has all imprints of solid psychological operations connected to SF and partizan activity targeting enemy morale. One may wonder how much pre-planned all it is and how much spontanous on behalf of Ukrainians behind lines. A lot of things for history books, for sure.

[Calamine Waffles]

I believe I can fly...
 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Good thread here, by the French maps analyst:

No accordions were harmed in the making of this photo.

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by LongLeftFlank