How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

By a strange coincidence, they decided to go to the rally, at the same time as the suspension of Russian gas supplies via the northern stream. How everything is in sync

This 'thread' (so large we should maybe now call it a 'rope' instead) has often commented on Russian infiltration of political and civil groups in the west - more evidence now in Czech Republic.

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The primary point I am trying to make is that Putin seems to associate acting against the RU Nats with some sort of negative consequences for him.  This is what you seem to be speaking to when you say "over investment"

Well, yes and no.

Yes because it is possible that all those retired Syria and Donbas veterans, shauvinists patostreamers, alkocossacks, stadion hooligans, converted former inmates, rogue monks, Nicholaus II cosplayers, panslavists, narodno-bolsheviks and God knows what Land of Mordor can yet produce (enumeration is by no means complete-if you don't believe me, watch some Carograd TV) one day can indeed become too much of a burden and will require special treatment to put them in place. Maybe even send them on trips to Syberia; apartments are still there in case.

And No, because what I meaned here Kremlin did actively partly participated in funelling Russian right wingers up to a point, like you wrote before. Unlike liberal opposition, which was basically always against Kremlin (even if also massively penetrated by agents). That is what I mean by "over investment" in this context; Nats were partly his creation (not fully ofc.).

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Therefore, I think we have a pretty clear logical reason why Putin is not acting against the RU Nats even though others aren't allowed to do what these guys are doing.  That reason is that Putin is concerned that if he goes after the RU Nats then it will likely undermine stability in DLPR enough to cause major headaches.  Especially with the official Kremlin line for why this war is being fought.  Therefore, for now, he's trying to nudge them into being less "off message".

Quite possible. But we don't know if he does/does not something strictly because his fear of stability in LDPR (I don't think he frankly care about such details; he just turned Donbas into a land of Amazons, mind you) or some other reasons. And there can be many.

Also, note this is not first time Kremlin feels some limitation to his actions dealing with certain specific groups; it is still not totalitarian regime per se. For example he did find practicable not to squize oligarchs too harsh for their money during MegaProjects in Sochi and Kerch. He also feed Kadyrov with slightly too much power in Chechnya compared to what he probably initially wanted . All those endstates were also suboptimal from regime perspective, but he left them at that, not to further inflammate certain circles. Not great, not terrible, ironically speaking...

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Which could mean that Putin is not concerned of a direct threat to his regime by the RU Nats, rather he is concerned that acting against them would set in motion a domino effect that would eventually wind up being a threat to his regime.  In the end it might amount to the same thing, but not in the sort of direct coup sort of way.

Yup. We may argue it is even less than that, and he probably finds even a thought that some bearded weirdos in balaclavas are a threat for the Tsar very amusing. I mean come on, if you are Emperor you seriously think one day some grudging half-hobo in flanell shirt can topple you down? There are some wild horses roaming free in Donbas pastures fo sure, and many disgruntled soldiers around, but the real danger Putin is afraid of are guys in rooms next to his bedchamber. His doubts we can actually observe live in TV, from the other side of the table.

Ok, too many metaphores; but you know what I mean.

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Possibly Putin views them as a power check, however Putin could do this through more direct actions such as sacking people he views as problematic.  I think the previous explanation I gave is more plausible.

Russia has several milion people in various forms of state apparatus including civilian branches he can't check, controll nor sack them all. Gimmick with "fanatics that will destroy Russia one day" can be saved for later in case regime one day be in real trouble. Such dramatic changes of narration sound crazy from Western standpoint, but are not alien to regimes like Russian. One can only see some juxtaposition between figures of Soloviov (certified schauvinist from Kremlin side) and Girkin (uncertified schauvinist from free nationalists side) to have a taste of what they could do to each other if occassion arose.

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

At some point I think Putin will see the balance change and decide that acting against them is less risky than allowing them to continue doing what they do.  As I have said many times, the RU Nats are fanatics... fanatics don't tend to be too smart about boundaries.

If Putin would be forced to sue for humiliating peace in Ukraine one day and some Nats will not shut up, will see some nationalists' guts smeared over walls of several cities. It is typically Russian thing- a state power spew out ("Creating itself" in the eyes of subjects/commoners, including crowds of state servants) out of generally passive and neutral sorrounding by the power of its own will and with shocking brutallity. Very gruesome and mafia style, not some fancy social contracts by softie Westerners. Prigozhin will simply loooove it, it will remind him of his youth.

PS>I forgot to add militarized hipsters for enumeration at the first paragraph. In memory of WarGonzo.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Beleg85

[Ts4EVER]

20 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

Yeah, price controls - that's the answer lol.  Just let the government set the price of everything.  No, there is no actual history of what happens with price controls to reference there - nope - that's definitely the answer to everyone's problems.

Did I say that? However, history shows that targeted price controls are effective at fighting inflation, for example in Kennedy's conflict against US Steel back in the day, when they tried to raise their prices despite the wage and price guidelines in place at the time to curb inflation. He even got a nice birthday song by Marilyn Monroe out of it.

Today all of this is largely forgotten and the only price controls our politicians are willing to implement are frozen wages "for the good of all".

[Kinophile]

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/hersonskiy-zhurnalist-kostyantin-rizhenko-pro-okupaciyu-hersona-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50267149.html

"The Terrible Truth of Kherson from a journalist who only recently left the city". 

Quote

But it was all spontaneous defense. It was clear that we were completely abandoned. I don't know why it happened. The fact that the military was fighting around the city was 100% true. But the local authorities completely abandoned the townspeople. Deputies and officials quickly fled. And there remained either those who have a lot of property in the city, or collaborators who later proved themselves.

What's relevant for this thread is the local resistance.  Kherson is already penetrated by UKR military, its not a sealed up fortress by any stretch of the imagination. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by Kinophile

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Troopers of 35th marines brigade captured next Russian position, were likely ATGM platoon covered tank-hazard direction. Russians fled, abandoning the body of their comrade in foxhole.

 

 

It reminds me of the images (it looks almost the same) of the Russian retreat from the Kyiv and Sumi areas (minus the snow). It means that the Russians are suffering a lot  

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

(I don't think he frankly care about such details; he just turned Donbas into a land of Amazons, mind you)

Do we have any rough estimates of the L/DPR casualties as a percentage of the 18-55 male population? And of course they aren't done dying yet...

13 minutes ago, acrashb said:

This 'thread' (so large we should maybe now call it a 'rope' instead) has often commented on Russian infiltration of political and civil groups in the west - more evidence now in Czech Republic.

The FSB has clearly pulled every single string it still holds in attempt at a coordinated campaign to get some sort of negotiated settlement before the Russian military just collapses. They are of course six months late. This should have happened on February 25th. Of course Putin only told ~twenty people he was actually going to do this in advance. At lest it is a good case study on how long it takes the FSB to put a major operation together. Now it just looks like desperate last gasp, and I think the momentum on the military side is close to unstoppable. The U.S. isn't wavering, and Poland is frothing at the mouth to enter the war, not much else is required to keep the pressure up until at least Christmas.

[dan/california]

Probably as good an open source map as you can get right now.

 

 

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Ts4EVER said:

Problem is that most European politicians, especially the German ones, took a deep sip of the "free market solves everything" koolaid and will watch prices go through the roof before doing measures like prize controls or rationing, so they are exacerbating possible effects.

I think you got that wrong. 2/3rds of the German government are very much in the 'let the state control more stuff' team than anywhere else. And the other 1/3 would also like to win enough votes to make the 5% cut (and there is a regional vote in 5 weeks).
So the question is not 'if', but 'how much' and 'what' will the state do.

AFAIK there is also no other European country that chose 'free market' as the current tool of choice. Which one do you mean?

[Grigb]

There is new and unexpected development with Sahih al-Bukhari saga. Previous I discussed two outcomes:

1. Reversal of the decision means Putin while somewhat weakened is still in charge
2. No changes to decisions means power struggle is happening, and Putin is severely weakened

However, today Kadyrov announced over Telegram he needs - indefinite and long vacation from his post Head of Chechnya. Text of post:

Quote

Friends, today I found out that I, it turns out, am a "long-liver" among the CURRENT heads of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
I noticed myself that I stayed too long. I think I fully deserve an indefinite and long vacation.

I hope that you will support me and understand.

For those who is unaware of RU power games - Kadyrov would never leave his post voluntarily. He is a notorious war criminal with many enemies inside and outside of RU. There is no a happy quiet life for him after retirement. And he is the only protection Chechens have against another attempt of genocide by RU army.

Let's look closely at the video of announcement:

Full transcript is below (Yes, he talks like this in RU and "don" is parasitic word in Chechen language)

Quote

Salam Aleikum
welcome everyone
it's me again with my phone
that's how things are with us well, now I
have found out that I'm the longest-lived don
here of all heads of subjects [of RF]
in the first place for 15 years as I
have been running the republic. We Caucasians, Chechens
have a proverb don
no matter what kind of guest the respected don
is long-awaited if he leaves in time, it
happens to be don
pleasant, so I think my time is
also don came don while I
am not kicked out don
so that's how things are don it seems
I am already an old don, I was once the youngest
most inexperienced don
of them, now and [I] remained so inexperienced,
youth has gone, don somewhere, don don't know, don
these are the things, but we have already begun
to think about it, don, and
we will try to leave in time, don
Salam Alaikum, Akhmad Strong!

 

If we pull the most useful phrases out of this mess and correct them, we get the following:

Quote

...I think my time has also come to an end. [I need to leave] before I will be kicked out. I was and I am still unexperienced. I began to think about it and will try to leave in time.  

So:

• Kadyrov got a message from somebody who is more experienced in seems to be political games than Kadyrov
• Kadyrov was told he might be kicked out unless he himself leaves
• He had to publicly announce it to prove he got the message

Important point - Kadyrov seems to be sad, disappointed but not scared or under distress. That gives us additional food for thought

• The other guy: himself is not a threat to Kadyrov and kadyrov can trust his word
• Kadyrov might not be just threatened but most likely was additionally bought (promised supposedly higher position but out of power) 

Working theories:

1. Putin got pissed off with Kadyrov
2. Somebody very close to Putin is making a soft coup

Theory 1 Pro 

• Most simple explanation
• Kadyrov trusts Putin

Theory 1 Against 

• I do not see anything Kadyrov did that could piss of Putin
• Does not fit Putin most likely course of action - Putin would make meeting with Kadyrov with cameras and directly offer Kadyrov what would look like better position. No fuss and everybody happy and quiet. 
• Putin needs Kadyrov now more than ever
• Adding the book to extremist material list does not fit the theory that Putin is in charge (why piss on all Sunni Muslims if you have issue with one)

Theory 2 Pro

• The book story fits here nicely
• Overall way it is done (secret meeting) and Kadyrov announcement of TG fits as well
• kadyrov most likely trusts Putin inner circle as well
• Putin strange public behavior (rubber butt)
• Overall hardening of RU position (for example decision to disconnect gas) 
• It is about time

Theory 2 Against

• It is a complicated explanation
• It is simply very difficalt to pull off unless Putin is, for example, mentally unhealthy

My opinion - Theory 2

Let's think about the possibility that Putin is mentally unhealthy (for any number of reasons). For example, he is just talking head for TV now. That's why Kadyrov is not making a big fuss. He just did not see it (Putin mental problems and following soft coup) coming. That's why he says he (Kadyrov) is still so unexperienced - he was outmaneuvered and offered the way out.

Interestingly we saw reports Shoigu was sidelined (so he is out of hierarchy). And Shoigu was one of the heirs (according to Girkin). Now we see Kadyrov is on his way out of the game. Too many coincidences to believe in simple explanations.

[DesertFox]

20 minutes ago, poesel said:

I think you got that wrong. 2/3rds of the German government are very much in the 'let the state control more stuff' team than anywhere else. And the other 1/3 would also like to win enough votes to make the 5% cut (and there is a regional vote in 5 weeks).
So the question is not 'if', but 'how much' and 'what' will the state do.

AFAIK there is also no other European country that chose 'free market' as the current tool of choice. Which one do you mean?

Correct! Election in Lower Saxony will show that this fall. Rot/Gruen will win that federal german state, at least that is what the election polls tell us so far.

Landtagswahl Niedersachsen: Wahlumfrage vom 02.09.2022 von Institut Wahlkreisprognose | Sonntagsfrage #ltwnds (dawum.de)

[Grigb]

UKR are using missiles that are not announced. RU is in pain - letter to Putin from front line

Quote

In this regard, a big request is to explain to all our field commanders that it is necessary to build their actions in such a way as to be as confident as possible in the result of their labor, reducing to zero the risks from the unexpected appearance of new variables in the assortment of Western weapons or the use of any tricks by the enemy.

 

Current HIMARS are causing a lot of pain to RU. I do not know what HIMARS are hitting but it is extremely painful for RU. From the same letter (pay attention to part with hitting several warehouses at the same time

Quote

And the second aspect is that [we] need to learn from [our] mistakes faster. For example, how many more times does [enemy] need to smash our warehouses in order to force the generals to make decisions about their dispersal? They will probably answer that it will be logistically inconvenient, it will take longer, etc. - It takes longer to bring ammunition from their storage sites in Russia.

And yes, each MLRS system has its own firing sector, the maximum range of missiles. Please disperse the ammunition storage locations taking into account these variables. This will exclude our  warehouses getting hit at the same time - it seems to be clear even to a young boy.

I hope I do not need to explain about the situation with pontoon crossings in the Kherson region.

Another example

Quote

The bet on missiles did not play

Enough time has already passed to sum up the "precision weapons strategy". In short, this strategy has not justified itself. In military terms, [it is] for sure.

Long explanation - expensive high-precision Calibre and Iskander missiles have repeatedly raised questions about [their] precision, and questions about the damaging effect of the warhead.

As it turned out in 6 months, the main thing in missiles is not their beautiful flight at low altitudes, but the RECON of targets. Cheaper American missiles for HIMARS, as high-precision weapons, proved to be better, provided they had an overwhelming advantage in reconnaissance and target designation.

 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Putlers pawns. Those are all over europe. Far right and far left are taking advantage of peoples economic fears. They request opening Northstream-2 as well and think if UKR will submit to Putler, all their problems will be solved.

Here as well. They are not far left and there are no Pro-Russian sentiments to openly build upon, but instead we have prolific tinfoilers who share anti-Ukrainian dramas. Around 80% accounts in social media that were antivaccers now "suddenly" became very concern about too many Ukrainian refugees and are spreading various fakes like crazy.

 

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Oh, yea! This is what Rybar wrote a couple of days before the war. It is long and hilarious (for me at least) but I made a summary for those who do not want dive into RU madness. 

Posted on 21-Feb-22 https://t.me/rybar/24119
Summary: 
    • United States has outlived its time
    • It is wrong to focus on public politics instead of real politics
    • Many countries in the world are the providers of the British will. London City has great influence over World economy
    • Regional power Great Britain returns to it’s position as world Empire
    • US is just actor who just plays role of a world arbiter
    • Brexit was misunderstood at the time
    • EU is tangle of contradictions, which is shaken by social, economic and migrant crises but [due to Brexit] UK is somewhere outside [of it].
    • Collective West took course on creating general chaos that looks like worsens controllability [of world by the West]
    • However [position of the West is] It's good to catch delicious fish in muddy water
    • [Pre-war] situation in UKR is continuation of General Chaos policy and deliberation action [of implied UK]
    • UK invests a lot in UKR military-complex. Why?
    • [because] UK begins to publicly dictate terms, publicly ousts the United States from Ukraine
    • The war has not yet begun, and the UK has already received good reputational advantages
    • A little time will pass, and the States will turn into an even bigger bubbling cauldron of chaos [implying UK will take place of as real-World Leader]

Priceless. Suddenly Boris The Destroyer make so much more sense.

[DesertFox]

Excalibur...

 

 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Priceless. Suddenly Boris The Destroyer make so much more sense.

It is gift that never stops giving - UK is silently taking over not just UKR but other countries as well, for example US.

Quote

Posted on 16-Aug-22 https://t.me/rybar/37289
Summary:
    • QinetiQ made a deal on the acquisition of the software provider Avantus Federal
    • Avantus Federal is a US-based organization that has been developing software for US intelligence agencies
    • Over the past three years, the company's revenues have grown at a phenomenal pace
    • The CEO of QinetiQ himself does not hide the corporation's intention to expand presence in US market
    • Washington's [government] departments did not even try to seize the initiative from the British in this matter
    • We wrote back in February about the public "return" of Great Britain to big politics
    • Apparently, the US is being deprived of the status of a world political center
    
Is the UK "launching tentacles" into the American military-industrial complex?

British Defense Corporation QinetiQ made a deal on the acquisition of the software provider Avantus Federal in the amount of $590 million.

Avantus Federal is a US-based organization that has been developing software for US intelligence agencies, the National Security Agency and the Pentagon since 2016.

Over the past three years, the company's revenues have grown at a phenomenal pace: only for the next fiscal year ended June 30, 2022, Avantus earned $298 million.

The CEO of QinetiQ himself does not hide the corporation's intentions: "This acquisition is an important step in the realization of QinetiQ's five-year ambitions to expand its presence in the United States, the world's largest security and defense market."

Washington's [government] departments did not even try to seize the initiative from the British in this matter - and this despite the fact that a sharp increase in the company's revenues was noticeable two years ago.

We wrote back in February (https://t.me/rybar/24119 ) about the public "return" of Great Britain to big politics. And they just touched on the fact that while the collective West will create the strongest tension on the planet in all areas of life, the organizers of chaos will quietly earn money.

In the UK, not only earn [US money], but also slowly take over the most successful American companies that fulfill state defense orders.

Apparently, the US is being deprived of the status of a world political center, which I wrote about a few months ago (https://t.me/sex_drugs_kahlo/2716 ) Frida @sex_drugs_kahlo, will take place even earlier than we expected. It is painfully difficult to continue to consider the country whose military-industrial complex is directly subordinated to the political circles of Foggy Albion as a "hegemon".

#UK #USA
@rybar together with @usaperiodical

 

 

[dan/california]

TANK RIDERS! it must be included!

[pavel.k]

54 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Interestingly we saw reports Shoigu was sidelined (so he is out of hierarchy). And Shoigu was one of the heirs (according to Girkin). Now we see Kadyrov is on his way out of the game. Too many coincidences to believe in simple explanations.

When i heard about FSB poor report about the state of Ukraine which probably give a green light for the Invasion, it came to my mind, what if it was poor report for purpose? To let bleed the army and create crisis. Could this terrible tragedy be just a high game of Patrushev or Bortnikov? It sounds very conspiracy/crazy, isn't it?

Also if i remember correctly there were some speculations after the beginning of invasion, that FSB provided some good intel to Ukraine. Like it was making sure the invasion will not succeed?

Ok, you can call me lunatic and i will shut up

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Ok, you can call me lunatic and i will shut up

How about just K-anon. 

[sburke]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Do these fools have any idea what they are actually protesting for?  They are protesting for a change in gov't that would, of course, outlaw protesting.  What kind of Czechs think Russian domination is a good idea?  Who are these dingbats?

Never underestimate the ability of people to back issues that actually aren't in their real interest.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

It is gift that never stops giving - UK is silently taking over not just UKR but other countries as well, for example US.

We need to wait till murals at Moscow start to appear a la Teheran ones. Little cunning Sheytan leading Great dumb Sheytan, and all of that; just changing the flags. Perhaps Iranians can throw some talented street artists extra in addition to their drones.

1 hour ago, pavel.k said:

Also if i remember correctly there were some speculations after the beginning of invasion, that FSB provided some good intel to Ukraine. Like it was making sure the invasion will not succeed?

Ok, you can call me lunatic and i will shut up

They kinda did, however probably inadvertly. We can only guess what American intell originated from, but can be pretty sure they have some cutting edge futuristic mambo-jambo to tap most Russian officials. If one remember what Pegasus could do- which was commercial Alpha version of software of small company from relatively minor country- on Putin's place I would not even try to imagine what US has at its disposal.

ED: Yup, Dark Brandon vibes are probably strong at Kremlin. And good, let them fear the shadows.

Edited September 4, 2022 by Beleg85

[akd]

Said to be Ukrainians close-assaulting Russians dug-in on north side of Bakmuts’ke (Geolocated to here: 48.67638° N, 38.10503° E):

 

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

Yeah, price controls - that's the answer lol.  Just let the government set the price of everything.  No, there is no actual history of what happens with price controls to reference there - nope - that's definitely the answer to everyone's problems.

Instead praying to that magical entity called "market" that somehow makes everything better for all of us is if the state just lets it do its thing without interferrnce is so much smarter.

No, there is no actual history of what happens with an unregulated market to reference there - nope, that's definitely the answer to everyones problems.

(Lehman Brothers, anyone?)

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Do we have any rough estimates of the L/DPR casualties as a percentage of the 18-55 male population? And of course they aren't done dying yet...

Donetsk was something like 2.3 mln total, Luhansk maybe half that; hard to say as a lot population was moving out. We discussed LDPR lossess during Severdonetsk battle, both "Republics" could loose at least 8-10 th. each KIA/WIA during this war. But probably many more, and they did tank lossess from 2014 as well.

There are many jokes in Russia and Ukraine as well as to the state of male population in Donbas ("Donbas Women's Republic"). It was pretty bad there demographically already before the war, with short lifespans, lack of perspectives, alcoholism etc. Rather grim places, with so mucnh destruction along.

They will soon really look like Herodotus' imaginary Land of Amazons. Which supposed to be placed, ironically, somewhere in this place of the world, between Black Sea and land of Sakae.

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Now it just looks like desperate last gasp, and I think the momentum on the military side is close to unstoppable. The U.S. isn't wavering, and Poland is frothing at the mouth to enter the war, not much else is required to keep the pressure up until at least Christmas.

Nope, Poland will not enter voluntarly any war unless Russians really start to attack first. I know there are memes about Art.5 and similar things, but they are just jokes. War for us (like for many countries around) is not something optional and tool of politics by other means. It is alwas existential and extremely dangerous for biological survival; one learn such things when history throw you between Rusia and Germany.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

Instead praying to that magical entity called "market" that somehow makes everything better for all of us is if the state just lets it do its thing without interferrnce is so much smarter.

No, there is no actual history of what happens with an unregulated market to reference there - nope, that's definitely the answer to everyones problems.

(Lehman Brothers, anyone?)

Depending on situation either may be right.  Having an argument where there isn't a more complex or compromising view is usually unproductive but probably more so in economics.  Regulations have a place but aren't necessarily the right answer to everything.  Either way... we are once again diverging.  I think that is what happens when we have periods without really clear info as to what is happening.  OpSec can be such a pain at times!  

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

AFAIK there is also no other European country that chose 'free market' as the current tool of choice. Which one do you mean?

Indeed. After the last decade or so of crises, most governments but also economies figured out that a self regulating free market does not exist or at least that this self regulation doesn't yield the desired results, especially during a crisis.

[Butschi]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

Either way... we are once again diverging.  I think that is what happens when we have periods without really clear info as to what is happening.  OpSec can be such a pain at times!  

Very true.