How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Became knowingly about second combat loss of UKR naval forces (i.e the loss during the task acomplishment). 

Small inshore minesweeper M360 Henichesk (pr.1258 Korund class, NATO code - Yevgeniya) was sunk about 1 or 1,5 month ago during missile strike from Russian aircraft from Novofedorivka airbase. Reportedly most of crew (10 sailors) was lost.

This became knowingly from today's statement of President's Office about awarding of diving support vessel "Netishyn" commander for missions of mining Odesa area and recovering of bodies of sailors and equipment from "Sloviansk" patrol boat (Island class) and "Henichesk". "Sloviansk" was sunk in March in the sea also from missile strike from Novofedorivkka base jet.

As if destroying of airbase  and almost whole aviation regiment was a revenge of Ukrainians for lost sailors and ships. 

Edited August 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

HIMARsing continues - Girkin

Quote

ABOUT THE INSTINCT OF SELF-PRESERVATION

The floor was completely demolished: video of the hotel in Stakhanov after the AFU strike using HIMARS

10 HIMARS missiles. The hotel is trashed. And along with her - a bunch of military men who are used to "fighting with comfort, whiskey and girls."
Today, for the third time, the UKR hit the ammunition depot in Chernobayevka.
Another hit on the Antonovsky Bridge (several were shot down, one rocket flew, the bridge is standing yet).

I personally wonder if there are still people in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (as well as in other silovik agencies) who might not have great mental abilities, but at least have an instinct of self-preservation? Or has the "reversed selection" already gone so far that - like drunken homeless people and avid drug addicts - these people have lost the ability to plan beyond the next evening? After all, UKR are teaching them and teaching again  - but nothing - time after time, time after time... Maybe because few people can - after another blow - talk about the acquired useful experience? Are you simply not able to learn from experience of others?

 

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

HIMARsing continues - Girkin

 

So he's out of prison? I though they still kept him in after he was detained?

 

Also, looks like "airdefense is doing" in Sevastopol again:

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

Just now, Huba said:

So he's out of prison? I though they still kept him in after he was detained?

Rumors claimed he was realized quickly. But the source of the rumors was a RU Nat guy whom I do not trust at all. So, most probably the whole story was hoax. 

[Grigb]

And Girkin comment about bridges

Quote

Dear Ukrainian partners (not mine) are celebrating again - a video of a broken bridge over the gateway in Novaya Kakhovka is being spread over the Internet. The unsuitability of the bridge for movement was confirmed to me - today around 13.00 [it] received new hits that someone filmed on a gadget (it is much more difficult to destroy the bridge itself, but it can be passed now only on foot, probably). Now both automobile bridges across the Dnieper, held by the Armed Forces of RU since the end of February, are unusable. Yes, you can try to repair them, but the probability that the partners will allow it to be done while the bridges are within range of their missiles is below zero.

That's how it happens when you care too much about partners (on whose territory our state corporations drive gas to Europe) not to suffer and chew snot instead of hitting their own bridges and "decision-making centers". 

 

[Haiduk]

BVP M-80A, donated by Slovenia in UKR service

Chevron of 24th mech.brigade

[Huba]

Here's a much better video of AD working in Eupatoria. The number of rockets in the air is absolutely mad. IMO it looks like these missed and are selfdestructing? Or are fired as a barrage, which has to be extremely wasteful, but perhaps shows that AD is not sleeping, saving it's commander's bacon.

Hmm, looking at it again, these are probably just autocannon round exploding, makes much more sense.

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by Huba

[JonS]

9 hours ago, Ultradave said:

You might want to read over again what I wrote.

Two subjects - cutting off electrical supply FROM the plant to Ukraine's power grid, which was what I was originally replying about, and cutting off grid supply TO the power plant which they need for cooling

But, see, this is the issue with the pro-proton mob: "everything is fine, it's totes safe (as long as you ignore this totally unsafe but likely operating condition)!" It all feels like a bait a switch. Probably because it is.

And even then, assume the best run, perfectly maintained plant, with excellently trained and adequate staff, that isn't hit by earthquake, tsunami, cyclone or war throughout it's operating life of maybe 100 years. Cool. /NOW/ what? What do we do with the site and waste for next few thousand years?

Edited August 26, 2022 by JonS

[chris talpas]

4 minutes ago, JonS said:

But, see, this is the issue with the pro-proton mob: "everything is fine, it's totes safe (as long as you ignore this totally unsafe but likely operating condition)!" It all feels like a bait a switch. Probably because it is.

And even then, assume the best run, perfectly maintained plant, with excellently trained and adequate staff, that isn't hit by earthquake, tsunami, cyclone or war throughout it's operating life of maybe 100 years. Cool. /NOW/ what? What do we do with the site and waste for next few thousand years?

Not to derail the thread …

if we want to decarbonize the energy grid, which global warming is driving us in that direction, then taking existing nuclear offline is not going to help us get there.

 

[Grigb]

Regarding AP mines - they are already extensively used at Donetsk direction. For example, Pisky are covered with petal mines.

They are saying about:

• Pisky are covered with petal mines
• It is Cowshed position
• You need to walk carefully watching for mines
• It is easy to spot them here on earth but almost impossible in the grass

I cannot say who is using them as both sides point at each other but so far I have not seen any conclusive proof (though i did not dig deep). Personally, I suspect it is DPR political leadership idea as I see reports about petal mines mostly from Donetsk direction. 

So, planning for fight against RU be fully prepared for petal mines.  

[sburke]

I'm about to go solar if that helps.    Though the effort of mining for the stuff that goes into solar is probably f'n up someone else's life.

Back to Ukraine - looks like from the earlier pics the partisan effort in the south is making Russian appointees a bit uncomfortable.  DPLR folks have got to understand that isn't going to stop there if Russian support to those puppet states falters.

[womble]

10 hours ago, Ultradave said:

cutting off grid supply TO the power plant which they need for cooling

Hi Dave. Total amateur here, in the matter, don't mind sayin' up front.

I can understand why the prospect of cutting off the Chernobyl installation from external power supply is/was a problem: they have needs for pumps and such to keep things circulating to stop thermal unpleasantness, and the on-site generation is diesel units with finite tanks. How come, though, given that Zaporizhzhia is currently still operating at least some (2?) of its piles, disconnecting that plant from external supply is a problem, since it makes "quite a lot" of power itself, and could "surely" use that to keep cooling plant operational?

Sure, once shutdown on the remaining cores is complete (though that doesn't seem to be an intention, merely an option down the line), the cooling ponds etc still need their impellers turned, and you need some external juice (or the emergency generators on-site), but why is it an acute problem?

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

What do we do with the site and waste for next few thousand years?

You re-process the waste, put it in a reactor with a different power cycle, extract the remaining energy and set the final waste in bins that are dangerous for about 300 years.  Due to the power density of fission fuels, the total cubic storage isn't that big.  The "site" isn't dangerous for nearly that length of time, because the fuel and waste products are removed.

With this mechanism, we have enough uranium for thousands of years of power.  But well before then we will have figured out fusion, and/or energy storage from intermittent sources, and so fission reactors will be relegated to manufacturing isotopes for medical imaging and the like.

Modern fission reactor designs are fail-safe anyway, SMRs in particular, and the track record of deaths, even with the older designs still in service, makes nuclear safer that anything except solar (I think) with which it is neck-and-neck.  I didn't keep the study and chart, but it is straightforward.

I don't expect to persuade you, just wanted to put some things out there for others.
 

29 minutes ago, womble said:

since it makes "quite a lot" of power itself, and could "surely" use that to keep cooling plant operational?

Regarding Zaporizhzhia  specifically, taking it on and off the grid is deliberately provocative and, in a war zone where backups can be interrupted unpredictably, too dangerous for my tastes.

While the plant makes a lot of energy it isn't 120v / 240v / 550v / or whatever the plant needs to run operations.  It has to go through large-scale transformer / distribution stations and then be fed back through "the grid") to the plant for operations, with suitable voltage and frequency.

But, if the plant is off-lined fully and experiences a full or partial meltdown (because the fuel rods have not been proactively removed), that can accomplish the strategic goal of further pushing Europe away from nuclear (due to enhanced fear in the population) and towards Russian natural gas.  So long term, it would be a win for Russia, and I'm sure Putin would see it that way.  I hope that he doesn't think the short-term pain can be tolerated.

1 hour ago, JonS said:

But, see, this is the issue with the pro-proton mob

Mr. Picky says 'protons' would be used in fusion, and if we ever figure out proton-proton fusion (which is what powers stars and is not what is being developed now), we will be in a very good place for energy generation.

If you want to denigrate / demonize fission, you would say "pro-neutron mob"

 

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by acrashb

[Grigb]

Reading RU posts regarding fighting in Maryinka found something new for me - for observation without exposing themselves UKR use commercial Photo Traps, for example Filin. 

Good enough to take photos and videos and send them to platoon HQ or to recon group in hiding. Cheap and expendable. Good idea for Territorial units who usually suffer from lack of military grade equipment.

[Haiduk]

 

[Letter from Prague]

No place is going to be unsafe for thousands of years because of radioactivity.

(I'm simplifying a lot.)

Radioactivity means unstable stuff falls apart into less unstable stuff and it releases energy. In a plant you make it fall apart faster by poking it (in bomb you make it fall apart very fast). The faster it falls apart the more energy it releases, but the faster it falls apart. The stuff that falls apart slowly is not very radioactive, the stuff that falls apart quickly is very radioactive but falls apart pretty quickly.

Spent fuel is usually stored in large concrete cylinders - concrete is dense, meaning it has its atoms close together, so it is more likely for the radioactive rays to hit them, make the atoms wiggle turning to heat. When the spent fuel is fresh and it has higher percentage of quickly decaying stuff, the cylinders can get pretty hot and some of the radioactivity may still escape, so they are stored in pools of water, both for cooling and because water is also pretty dense. But this hot phase is pretty short, few years at most.

The larger issue with nuclear stuff is it is toxic as hell. If it gets to underground water, that's trouble and it will poison things. But both during normal operations, and during disasters, nuclear power plants are actually safer than your common DuPont plant or toxic-stuff-spilling-to-air coal power plant. Compare Chernobyl with Bhopal Disaster, for example, or with whatever whoever in Poland recently did with that river.

As for whether a plant can provide its own cooling. I don't know in this specific case, but it is feasible that it might not.

Nuclear power plant heats water (= spicy rocks make rays that make water molecules wiggle) and runs it through steam turbine which spins a generator. In any electrical grid, even a tiny one, the generated power and the used power have to be in balance, otherwise things go very wrong. But the reactor and the turbines would have pretty narrow operating parameters, so you really can't slow them down that much. Slowing down the plant so that it makes power only for itself and nothing else might not be feasible. Or it might, I don't know.

If it was possible, you would do it by letting some steam off, rather than slowing down the reactor - this is typically how coal plants do it, they use as much coal but release more steam elsewhere than the turbines, since regulating the coal is difficult for some reason.

By the way most power plants need electricity to start up. Some have generators or other backups, but for most the general assumption is that you have the grid available. The whole grid moves on a common rhythm due to the alternating current, so if large grid goes down completely, the startup procedure is pretty involved, as you need to start with something that can give that rhythm and doesn't itself need electricity to start, typically hydro.

[dan/california]

These need to be included in the collectors edition of the new game.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

These need to be included in the collectors edition of the new game.

how about a shirt showing relative height the turret can achieve?   

[sburke]

40 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Mr. Picky says 'protons' would be used in fusion, and if we ever figure out proton-proton fusion (which is what powers stars and is not what is being developed now), we will be in a very good place for energy generation.

If you want to denigrate / demonize fission, you would say "pro-neutron mob"

rotflmao!  "If you are going to insult me, do it properly".  The judges are scoring

9.5   9.5   9   10.0    

and @acrashbmoves into 1st place!

[poesel]

26 minutes ago, acrashb said:

But, if the plant is off-lined fully and experiences a full or partial meltdown (because the fuel rods have not been proactively removed), that can accomplish the strategic goal of further pushing Europe away from nuclear (due to enhanced fear in the population) and towards Russian natural gas.  So long term, it would be a win for Russia, and I'm sure Putin would see it that way.  I hope that he doesn't think the short-term pain can be tolerated.

Can we please leave pro/con nuclear discussion out of this thread? At least, if it isn't pertinent to the current war?
Like, what would have happened if Saporischja wouldn't be Europe's biggest nuclear but its biggest solar plant?

Any nuclear 'accident' there wouldn't be an advertisement for nuclear anywhere. But pushing Europe towards Russian gas? No way, that train has left the station. Especially for Germany, I can say that gas for heating is dead in 10-20 years. Old gas burners that have to be replaced will be replaced by heat pumps (=electrical). Right now, you can make a fortune here if you know how to plan and install those.
Of course, there is still the industry which needs a lot of gas, but that is going to be replaced with hydrogen if possible (long term).

[dan/california]

49 minutes ago, acrashb said:

While the plant makes a lot of energy it isn't 120v / 240v / 550v / or whatever the plant needs to run operations.  It has to go through large-scale transformer / distribution stations and then be fed back through "the grid") to the plant for operations, with suitable voltage and frequency.

 

We are taking a detour into a nuclear power discussion, but.... Grid disconnection was also a big problem at Fukashima. There just needs to be a new design requirement that nuclear plants  have a completely independent way to run there their own pumps and systems. You could do it by powering the pumps with steam directly, by having a separate small powerhouse that takes reactor steam and run it thru an appropriately sized turbine and generator, or even by the sort of fancy direct heat to electricity thermocouples that are used in many space probes. But if the reactor is hot there needs a to be a grid independent way to use that heat to run the systems that avoid bad outcomes.

Edited August 26, 2022 by dan/california

[Letter from Prague]

21 minutes ago, poesel said:

Can we please leave pro/con nuclear discussion out of this thread? At least, if it isn't pertinent to the current war?

I mean it kind of is related to the war - Germany's anti-nuclear stance is what drove it to Russian gas, and thus what both emboldened Russia to invade Ukraine, and what financed Russia's armies. And of course, there are the rumors of Greenpeace being FSB project for destabilization of Europe.

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

We are taking a detour into a nuclear power discussion, but.... Grid disconnection was also a big problem at Fukashima. There just needs to be a new design requirement that nuclear plants  have a completely independent way to run there their own pumps and systems. You could do it by powering the pumps with steam directly, by having a separate small powerhouse that takes reactor steam and run it thru an appropriately sized turbine and generator, or even by the sort of fancy direct heat to electricity thermocouples that are used in many space probes. But if the reactor is hot there needs a to be a grid independent way to use that heat to run the systems that avoid bad outcomes.

The problem with this plant is not the plant itself, but Russia actively trying to **** around with it to stoke anti-nuclear fear and drive more people to its gas, and also maybe destroy it just because they like to cause disasters.

No installation of anything is going to be sabotage-proof, when the saboteurs are whole army.

But I do find it fascinating how many new accounts show in discussions on social median with the message "Russia messing up with the plant just shows we shouldn't have nuclear power." and similar. It is all very convenient and it really makes me feel the anti-nuclear movement is coopted or always was.

Edited August 26, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, poesel said:

Can we please leave pro/con nuclear discussion out of this thread? At least, if it isn't pertinent to the current war?
Like, what would have happened if Saporischja wouldn't be Europe's biggest nuclear but its biggest solar plant?

Any nuclear 'accident' there wouldn't be an advertisement for nuclear anywhere. But pushing Europe towards Russian gas? No way, that train has left the station. Especially for Germany, I can say that gas for heating is dead in 10-20 years. Old gas burners that have to be replaced will be replaced by heat pumps (=electrical). Right now, you can make a fortune here if you know how to plan and install those.
Of course, there is still the industry which needs a lot of gas, but that is going to be replaced with hydrogen if possible (long term).

Issue is with the district heating plants, heat pumps do not scale like this unfortunately. SMRs would be a solution, but are decades away to be allowed in this application. Where I live, the co-generating plant runs on coal, but the city was just about to modernize the system with gas turbines... 

And to dodge Steve's wrath, here is an interesting discussion of RU bloggers, who argue that HIMARS is increasingly hitting troops concentrations. In my understanding, this would be the least priority in NATO type shaping operation, after logistics, C4, AD? Meaning UA is mostly out of such targets to strike, and is now left with just destroying manpower/ materiel. After this phase, what remains is to attack and take ground, fires achieved all that was to be done. 

 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

I mean it kind of is related to the war - Germany's anti-nuclear stance is what drove it to Russian gas, and thus what both emboldened Russia to invade Ukraine, and what financed Russia's armies. And of course, there are the rumors of Greenpeace being FSB project for destabilization of Europe.

I read today that Hungary approved the next step of it's stomic power plant project, that is being built by Rosatom. Buggers are so involved with RU that there's no way out for them... 

[Letter from Prague]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

Issue is with the district heating plants, heat pumps do not scale like this unfortunately. SMRs would be a solution, but are decades away to be allowed in this application. Where I live, the co-generating plant runs on coal, but the city was just about to modernize the system with gas turbines... 

There's some interesting concepts with heat storage - that would likely scale for district heating scale.

However, the problem with this is that just like with the electricity storage (that is needed to make intermittent energy sources like solar and wind practical 24/7), all of it is in various concept stages. There is no "we know this works well and we can just start building it", it is all "we could do this or that or that, maybe".

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

And to dodge Steve's wrath, here is an interesting discussion of RU bloggers, who argue that HIMARS is increasingly hitting troops concentrations. In my understanding, this would be the least priority in NATO type shaping operation, after logistics, C4, AD? Meaning UA is mostly out of such targets to strike, and is now left with just destroying manpower/ materiel. After this phase, what remains is to attack and take ground, fires achieved all that was to be done. 

Or they are reading this thread and are taking the advice "you just have to kill enough Russians to make them leave" to heart  

Is Ukraine firing the same amount of rockets as before, and the targets have changed, or are they possibly getting more ammo and hitting these things in addition? 

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

I read today that Hungary approved the next step of it's stomic power plant project, that is being built by Rosatom. Buggers are so involved with RU that there's no way out for them... 

How much of an idiot has someone to be to start a long term project with Russia right now? Rosatom might not exist in a year. Or it might but it might be out due to sanctions, who knows.