How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[fireship4]

17 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Could be, but look at the statement again.

"they're doing that with the existing GMLRS, with the existing HIMARS."

He didn't say it's with US supplied systems, so a lawyer would say he's talking about all of what Ukraine has regardless of where they originated from.  A lawyer would also point out that he didn't say they don't have ATACMS, he just said that so far all the strikes were using GMLRS.

If we are going to take him at his word, no mistakes or lies, then this means ATACMS was not used to attack Saky airbase.  Which leaves the only viable explanations Hrim-2 or SOF.  Which works for me since i don't think ATACMS was used for that attack

Steve

Without the full context of the interview/session, I would just point out that this statement restricts itself to noting things they have done, and states a means by which they are achieved.  It does not deny they have done the same thing with other means.

They could be using US supplied ATACMS and this statement would not be false, only misleading.  I prefer a simple 'no comment on these kind of matters' response.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Probably 6x Excaliburs set to airburst (but bursting at different heights because of trees / equipment).

Yeah. that still picture seems to show something about Excalibur sized.  Firing 6 is a pretty big investment on a single target, but considering what this target was I'd say a wise investment for sure.

Looks like they did a mix.  First (directly over radar) was airburst, second (treeline "north" of the truck), and sixth (treeline "north" of radar) all appear to be airburst while hits 3-5 were all ground.

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

Without the full context of the interview/session, I would just point out that this statement restricts itself to noting things they have done, and states a means by which they are achieved.  It does not deny they have done the same thing with other means.

They could be using US supplied ATACMS and this statement would not be false, only misleading.  I prefer a simple 'no comment on these kind of matters' response.

Yup, or as I said it could be that he's saying all the attacks we've seen so far were standard GLMS, but that doesn't mean Ukraine doesn't have ATACMS in hand.

Whatever the real answer is, ATACMS in Ukraine's hands was always inevitable IMHO.  I saw this as "boiling the frog" strategy from the start.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Flase flag attack to stir up trouble between Albania and Serbia?

Steve

[Kinophile]

Now,  I'm very ignorant of Air, in general, buuuut.... A10 would be a good fit for for UKR,no?

Tactically oriented platform,  combat proven and perfectly designed to slaughter SOV vehicles in a contested air space.

I mean, This is the war it was born to fight. 

RUS doesn't have air dominance, so tactical UKR A2AD could provide attack corridors,  HIMARS et could suppress RUS SAMs, although not Iglas etc.  

It also feels like a lower, entry rung on the way up the Air ladder to NATO level SEAD and 4-5th Gen air platforms.  

Running ops in contested tactical air space is something UKR Air Control already has experience in, so "plugging in"  a better Frogfoot would give them starter experience with NATO platforms, systems and procedures, without the organizational complexity, massive tech requirements and systems upgrades that 4th gen+ air frames need. 

Thoughts..? 

Edited August 20, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Now,  I'm very ignorant of Air, in general, buuuut.... A10 would be a good fit for for UKR,no?

Tactically oriented platform,  combat proven and perfectly designed to slaughter SOV vehicles in a contested air space.

This is the war it was born to fight

RUS doesn't have air dominance, so tactical UKR A2AD could provide attack corridors,  HIMARS et could suppress RUS SAMs, although not Iglas etc.  

I think it really depends on how badly Ukraine is able to target AD in a specific area it wants to hit with A-10s.    With their growing experience with HARM strikes, and cumulative losses on Russia's side, it is conceivable that they can do exactly that.

Near where I grew up was an A-10 base.  I remember driving down the highway just after the Highway of Death become public.  There was a pair of A-10s hanging over the highway.  I was very thankful to be on the same side as them

Steve

[Huba]

Very disturbing details, if true:

And one more detail about UA SF in Crimea:

 

Edited August 20, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

Kamil Galeev says that Darya Dugina is a involved political figure in her own right, so might not be targeting Alexander. 

 

 

[Huba]

This has an Article 5 escalation potential... 

[sburke]

they better secure those prisoners well cause you know Russia will want them dead.  If they can be traced back to Russia that starts leading to an article 5.

[Calamine Waffles]

 

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think it really depends on how badly Ukraine is able to target AD in a specific area it wants to hit with A-10s.    With their growing experience with HARM strikes, and cumulative losses on Russia's side, it is conceivable that they can do exactly that.

Near where I grew up was an A-10 base.  I remember driving down the highway just after the Highway of Death become public.  There was a pair of A-10s hanging over the highway.  I was very thankful to be on the same side as them

Steve

Actually I think it would be hilarious if the US gave them a ton of MALD-Js and use the A-10 purely as a MALD platform to troll the Russians.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/a-10-warthogs-tusks-are-being-sharpened-for-a-high-end-fight

[Beleg85]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I hope this video of turret spacelaunch will make you more happy )

Sweet Jesus, Ukrainians now have Death Star or something? This beautiful video+ vivaldi + lamp of wine makes excellent  spectacle indeed.  

I just came back from meeting with excellent Ukrainian writer Sergei Zhadan (some even predict him gaining Noble Prize). Cool guy, lots of interesting stories; they now make a tour over Europe reciting his poems and every ticket goes to help for soldiers from his native Kharkiv.

It is curious that Russians did not hold off any serious referendum on occupied lands, despite months-long threats to do so. After 5 months they still are unable to do this or have something different in the menu.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Beleg85

[Letter from Prague]

There are several nations that will be pretty salty if it's Albania who triggers Article 5, because they were looking forward to do it themselves  

____________

Regarding A-10 ... It would probably be better than nothing, because even without its memetic gun it has quite a few hardpoints and can carry JDAM, etc.

Speaking of which, if Ukraine managed to mount HARM on MiGs, could they load air-to-air missiles on it as well? We know they have NATO missiles they got as part of that "AMRAAM and Sidewinder mounted on truck air defense system", they might have loose ones as well.

[Calamine Waffles]

Sidewinder I could see (it's just a heat-seeker), but AMRAAM is more difficult, as it will need to interface with the aircraft systems to provide targeting information and location for the inertial guidance phase before the missile's own active radar guidance takes over, even if you choose not to use the mid-course update capability.

There is a free guidance mode, but that's basically the equivalent of hip-firing and hoping the missile hits the right thing.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Sweet Jesus, Ukrainians now have Death Star or something? This beautiful video+ vivaldi + lamp of wine makes excellent  spectacle indeed.  

I just came back from meeting with excellent Ukrainian writer Sergei Zhadan (some even predict him gaining Noble Prize). Cool guy, lots of interesting stories; they now make a tour over Europe reciting his poems and every ticket goes to help for soldiers from his native Kharkiv.

It is curious that Russians did not hold off any serious referendum on occupied lands, despite months-long threats to do so. After 5 months they still are unable to do this or have something different in the menu.

recent article suggested it is more an inability to ensure the wonderful tale of grateful Russians returning to the motherland.  Partisan activity is undermining Russian sense of control.

[Huba]

IMO JDAM-ER would be the most worthwile weapon to integrate, by far... 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah. that still picture seems to show something about Excalibur sized.  Firing 6 is a pretty big investment on a single target, but considering what this target was I'd say a wise investment for sure.

Six rounds is 1 round, fire for effect from a battery, which sounds like a very run of the mill engagement order.

Soldiers tend not to do cost-based decisions. They're more about effect-based decisions, and someone else can worry about the dollars and cents. I mean ... how many stories are there from Iraq and Afghanistan of Javs being used to take out individual riflemen?^ By comparison, six rounds of Excalibur - or something similar - to make a counter-battery capability go away for ever is positively frugal.

 

^ I'm reluctant to call every random Toby Taliban taking potshots from behind a rock with an AK 'a sniper'. That just smacks of 'every tank a Tiger, every gun an 88.'

Edited August 20, 2022 by JonS

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Kamil Galeev says that Darya Dugina is a involved political figure in her own right, so might not be targeting Alexander. 

Strange choice if one wants to put down Russian nationalists. Even Dugin himself would be strange choice; he is second-row ideologian and probably appeal only to a bunch of old ladies and religious freaks form Tsargrad. He was rather far from more practical, militaristic nationalists like Strielkov. Their circle (centred around oligarch Konstantin Malofieiev) of course maximally support war and view Putin as half-saviour. They all should generally feel safe in Russia.

Targeted assassinations are rare within nationalistic political circles, unless somebody has business ties with wrong persons. And killing women is considered passe even by gangsters in Russia.

Unfortunately they almost 100% blame Ukrainians. But as a false flag it is strange choice also, not enough to incite rage in wider population. So i would vote for now for some more private business killings targeted at Dugin.

A pitty Grigb is off now, this death will shake Russian right-wingers.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Beleg85

[BlackMoria]

I concur.  This smacks more of a settling of affairs between rival power groups than a targeted Ukrainian sanctioned assassination.     There is bigger fish to fry than this tadpole from a Ukrainian point of view.

Edited August 20, 2022 by BlackMoria

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

First and most important, I hope the eyes of those soldiers are not permanently damaged.

Second, I've been wondering when/whether Putler would engage in sabotage to try to limit supplies to Ukraine.  This could be very serious, especially if there's more of these attacks.   What would NATO do at this point?  ATACMS?  How much more non-direct escalation is there?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

they better secure those prisoners well cause you know Russia will want them dead.  If they can be traced back to Russia that starts leading to an article 5.

I doubt it will get to Article 5, but it might move the visa ban right along.

 

[BlackMoria]

This is very poorly thought out by Russia.   Doing this is exactly what NOT to do if you want free movement of Russian citizens beyond the Russian border into the west.  Now, this act of stupidity is exactly the pretext that the West needs to apply 'special conditions' to all Russian travellers and ramp up the denial of travel visas.    NATO nations can now enact surveillance on Russian travellers and Russian can protest all they want but NATO now has the justification.

Absolute stupidity....  Well played, Russia.  

Edited August 20, 2022 by BlackMoria

[JonS]

3 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

This is very poorly thought out by Russia.

well, that'd be a first then, eh?

[BlackMoria]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

well, that'd be a first then, eh?

What is that line from Forest Gump?   "Stupid is what stupid does..."