How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Some M113s from the U.S are now in Ukraine according to oryx.

 

Ah, my favourite towed artillery piece.

[dan/california]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

A legend in his own mind....

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

15 hours ago, Haiduk said:

There are no jets here. Lukashenko handed over this base to Russia and reportedly only AD, EW and likely missile units are deployed here with some ground forces for security 

Very strange indeed.  However, it is a good reminder to everybody that just because something goes boom doesn't mean it was the result of an attack. 

After the war is over I hope Ukraine publishes a list of all the "smoking accidents" it was responsible for.  I doubt they will, but I for one am really curious to know how many things in Russia that burned during this war were the result of Ukrainian activities.  I bet the number is greater than zero

Steve

[sross112]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Very strange indeed.  However, it is a good reminder to everybody that just because something goes boom doesn't mean it was the result of an attack. 

After the war is over I hope Ukraine publishes a list of all the "smoking accidents" it was responsible for.  I doubt they will, but I for one am really curious to know how many things in Russia that burned during this war were the result of Ukrainian activities.  I bet the number is greater than zero

Steve

There was some discussion here the last couple days about the possibility of SOF/Partisan/Spook activities of Ukraine in Russia and Russian controlled areas. Some people thought it would be very hard for Ukrainian operatives to move throughout Russia without being caught. After some thinking about it and then your reference to all those fires across the country I doubt it would be direct action or actual operatives, but it could certainly be their developed assets.

Think about the Soviet policies from 1917 to 1991. The gulag archipelago. The mass deportations and relocations of populations. Just how many Ukrainians were moved into the hinterlands? Out of those, even though in some instances several generations have passed, how many still consider themselves Ukrainian and have a chip on their shoulder (that they conceal well day to day) and would love to do their part to hurt Russia. If the SBU isn't/wasn't as corrupt and inept as the FSB turned out to be they should have a huge network of assets within Russia. The more Russia doesn't win this war and the longer it goes on the bigger that asset pool should grow. Might get really interesting before it is over concerning all the possibilities of what could happen within Russia.  

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

There was some discussion here the last couple days about the possibility of SOF/Partisan/Spook activities of Ukraine in Russia and Russian controlled areas. Some people thought it would be very hard for Ukrainian operatives to move throughout Russia without being caught. After some thinking about it and then your reference to all those fires across the country I doubt it would be direct action or actual operatives, but it could certainly be their developed assets.

Think about the Soviet policies from 1917 to 1991. The gulag archipelago. The mass deportations and relocations of populations. Just how many Ukrainians were moved into the hinterlands? Out of those, even though in some instances several generations have passed, how many still consider themselves Ukrainian and have a chip on their shoulder (that they conceal well day to day) and would love to do their part to hurt Russia. If the SBU isn't/wasn't as corrupt and inept as the FSB turned out to be they should have a huge network of assets within Russia. The more Russia doesn't win this war and the longer it goes on the bigger that asset pool should grow. Might get really interesting before it is over concerning all the possibilities of what could happen within Russia.  

Mind you, there's probably tons of Russian agents in Ukraine for the same reason as Ukrainians in Russia.

[paxromana]

49 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Mind you, there's probably tons of Russian agents in Ukraine for the same reason as Ukrainians in Russia.

Indeed ... fortunately they seem to be ... not very competent.

[Haiduk]

Antonivskyi bridge in Kherson under HIMARS attack. Russian AD tries to intercept missiles, but several missiles hit the bridge 

 

[panzermartin]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Antonivskyi bridge in Kherson under HIMARS attack. Russian AD tries to intercept missiles, but several missiles hit the bridge 

 

When the bridge was hit for the first time, I remember no active AD. Now I see a lot intercepts (not sure if every boom though is a kill). Seems RU are more aware now of the threat and probably a little more capable to shoot down HIMARS?

[Probus]

1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

When the bridge was hit for the first time, I remember no active AD. Now I see a lot intercepts (not sure if every boom though is a kill). Seems RU are more aware now of the threat and probably a little more capable to shoot down HIMARS?

Good question.  I suppose HIMARS comes in ballistically.  I wonder how fast?

[Elmar Bijlsma]

42 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

When the bridge was hit for the first time, I remember no active AD. Now I see a lot intercepts (not sure if every boom though is a kill). Seems RU are more aware now of the threat and probably a little more capable to shoot down HIMARS?

The SAMs are exploding in the same place. They are sending them up on a pre-set in the hope the explosion does something. What you are seeing cannot credibly be called air defence, it is impotent flailing at an enemy they cannot not touch or even see.

[panzermartin]

33 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

The SAMs are exploding in the same place. They are sending them up on a pre-set in the hope the explosion does something. What you are seeing cannot credibly be called air defence, it is impotent flailing at an enemy they cannot not touch or even see.

You could be right but there are some really big booms as well up there, not something an AA missile would produce. They have claimed to have shot down quite a few, but they are probably exaggerating. But we are also exaggerating that HIMARS is invincible to AD systems that have proved to intercept similar RU missiles when in UKR service. HIMARS is actually slower than a WW2 V2 (but a smaller target ) 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

Good question.  I suppose HIMARS comes in ballistically.  I wonder how fast?

I did the numbers on a ballistics calculator a few pages back and came up with a terminal velocity of around 800 m/s, which is about Mach 2.3.  

[Calamine Waffles]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I did the numbers on a ballistics calculator a few pages back and came up with a terminal velocity of around 800 m/s, which is about Mach 2.3.  

The official spec is ~Mach 2.5, so you're pretty close.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/m31.htm

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

You could be right but there are some really big booms as well up there, not something an AA missile would produce. They have claimed to have shot down quite a few, but they are probably exaggerating. But we are also exaggerating that HIMARS is invincible to AD systems that have proved to intercept similar RU missiles when in UKR service. HIMARS is actually slower than a WW2 V2 (but a smaller target ) 

The presence of something that looks like RA BMD is a pretty good sign that the Russians are worried.  Not sure where you are getting “slower than a V2”, it’s terminal velocity was around 800 m/s as well (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-2_rocket).   Regardless, not a BMD expert but I do know that you try and hit them going up, at very high altitude near apex, because hitting them coming down is incredibly hard.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

The official spec is ~Mach 2.5, so you're pretty close.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/m31.htm

Sweet, gotta love math.

[womble]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

hitting them coming down is incredibly hard

For comparison, the terminal velocity is faster than most WW2 tank shells...

[Grossman]

9 hours ago, sross112 said:

There was some discussion here the last couple days about the possibility of SOF/Partisan/Spook activities of Ukraine in Russia and Russian controlled areas. Some people thought it would be very hard for Ukrainian operatives to move throughout Russia without being caught. After some thinking about it and then your reference to all those fires across the country I doubt it would be direct action or actual operatives, but it could certainly be their developed assets.

Think about the Soviet policies from 1917 to 1991. The gulag archipelago. The mass deportations and relocations of populations. Just how many Ukrainians were moved into the hinterlands? Out of those, even though in some instances several generations have passed, how many still consider themselves Ukrainian and have a chip on their shoulder (that they conceal well day to day) and would love to do their part to hurt Russia. If the SBU isn't/wasn't as corrupt and inept as the FSB turned out to be they should have a huge network of assets within Russia. The more Russia doesn't win this war and the longer it goes on the bigger that asset pool should grow. Might get really interesting before it is over concerning all the possibilities of what could happen within Russia.  

There is a century of suppression, coercion and genocide expressed in hope with the Ukraine invasion and fightback  The more agitated the response from the Russians with Ukrainian success the higher the anxiety at the higher end of the Putin regime. It's a question of time before the collapse of the Russians, led initially by Ukrainian success, followed by some form of internal revolt. It may take longer than we think, but with resolve it is inevitable. The Ukrainians will never surrenderm and neither must the West. The most dangerous phase will be the time when the Putin entourage know the game is up. 

[Calamine Waffles]

 

[panzermartin]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The presence of something that looks like RA BMD is a pretty good sign that the Russians are worried.  Not sure where you are getting “slower than a V2”, it’s terminal velocity was around 800 m/s as well (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-2_rocket).   Regardless, not a BMD expert but I do know that you try and hit them going up, at very high altitude near apex, because hitting them coming down is incredibly hard.

Yes, it's more like similar correct, I read that wrong. 

[Zeleban]

38 минут назад, Панцермартин сказал:

Возможно, вы правы, но там есть действительно большие хлопки, не то, что произведет зенитная ракета. Они утверждают, что сбили довольно много, но, вероятно, преувеличивают. Но мы также преувеличиваем, что HIMARS неуязвим для систем ПВО, которые доказали свою способность перехватывать аналогичные ракеты РУ, находясь на вооружении УКР. HIMARS на самом деле медленнее, чем WW2 V2 (но меньшая цель). 

What kind of Russian missiles like HIMARS intercepted Ukrainian air defense?

[Letter from Prague]

I wonder how many AD missiles does Russia have in the area. Can they really afford to waste them on GMRLS rockets when tomorrow they might get bombed by actual airplanes?

In the end, even interception is a good outcome for Ukraine, assuming they have more ammo than the Russian AD (adjusted for logistics).

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

The presence of something that looks like RA BMD is a pretty good sign that the Russians are worried.  Not sure where you are getting “slower than a V2”, it’s terminal velocity was around 800 m/s as well (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-2_rocket).   Regardless, not a BMD expert but I do know that you try and hit them going up, at very high altitude near apex, because hitting them coming down is incredibly hard.

Brennschluß! 

(I swore an solemn oath long ago to work that word into casual conversation whenever I possibly can. Yeah, life of the party, I know)

....He takes some time lightening a cigarette. He won't hear the thing come in. It travels faster than the speed of sound. The first news you get of it is the blast. Then, if you're still around, you hear the sound of it coming in.

What if it should hit exactly-ahh, no-for a split second you'd have to feel the very point, with the terrible mass above, strike the top of the skull...

 

(Apols. to Sir Elton, I carry a lifelong torch for Kate, in spite of the... questionable choice of a reggae beat for this cover)

OK, with that, I return you to your regularly scheduled thread.

[Haiduk]

The column of UKR M1224 

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Antonivskyi bridge in Kherson under HIMARS attack. Russian AD tries to intercept missiles, but several missiles hit the bridge 

 

Look at section at 1:04.  That looks like a span of bridge falling into the river, does it not?

I guess Ukraine decided it's time to cut the cord.

Steve