How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

HIMARS has Russian losses back up in the range of a battlegroup per day. 

Kherson is a trap for one side or the other. My bet is Putin is playing General, and the Russian army is going to be very sorry.

[Grigb]

Girkin fresh assessment

Part 1

Quote

On the situation at the front

Kharkiv front - positional battles and battles of local importance.
The Izyum Front (Slavyansk direction) is the same.

Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut Front (Artemovsk) - local battles with tactical (in places) insignificant advance of our troops. Seversk and the surrounding heights are still in the hands of the enemy. Our troops have not yet gone directly to the outskirts of Soledar and Bakhmut. At the southern tip of this front, the slow displacement of the enemy from the ledge in the area of the Uglegorskaya TPP and the village of Novoluganskoye continues. As of yesterday evening, full control over both of these points has not yet been established, despite the fact that their further retention for a long time is difficult for the enemy and he will be forced to leave them in the near future.
In fact, in the specified area there is a slow displacement (mainly due to the significant superiority in artillery in this direction of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) of the AFU units from the pre-field [forward defense lane] of the second main defense strip located along the specified line. The pace of progress does not allow us to hope that - without increasing efforts - it will be possible to reach the borders of the DPR not only by the end of August, but also by the end of September.

The front from Gorlovka to the southern tip of Donetsk is unchanged. Positional battles, exchange of artillery and missile strikes. Early this morning, the AFU launched another rocket and artillery strike on Donetsk, destroying targets on the territory of the oil depot.

Zaporozhye front - positional battles. The enemy is probing our defensive positions in the Volnovakha direction, in the direction of the Pologi. This area is not excluded as a direction of the auxiliary offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Kherson Front. After unsuccessful attacks on our positions south-east and south of Krivoy Rog, the AFU continues to build up forces on the entire front of the Right-Bank bridgehead of the AFRU. At present, fierce artillery shelling of the forward and rear positions of our troops, as well as attempts at air attacks, are being conducted daily. Ammunition depots, air defense positions, transport and supply facilities are subjected to missile strikes. Our troops are actively responding, seeking to disrupt the concentration of enemy strike groups.
The enemy is predicted to attack soon in the direction (conditional line) of Krivoy Rog - Berislav - with access to the dam at Novaya Kakhovka; in the direction directly to Kherson from the north-west and north-east directions. There may be an attempt to dissect our bridgehead by striking with the crossing of the Ingulets River in the center of our positions.

General points: The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to increase rocket attacks on rear transport hubs, air defense positions and artillery in the near rear of Russian troops in the Donbas, in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, paying special attention to key bridges on the Dnieper (there are two of them) in the hope of disabling them. The Russian VKS have noticeably intensified air strikes against the AFU facilities in the southern sector of the front. Russian artillery has noticeably improved the support of our advanced units. Missile strikes on objects in the frontline zone of the southern front have also noticeably intensified.

 

Part 2 Overall Assessment

Quote

The general conclusion: despite a number of positive changes in providing support to the ground forces by artillery and aviation, the AFRU, in fact, CONCEDE the INITIATIVE to the leadership of the AFU, preparing to complete the operational pause not with an offensive, but with a defensive battle, the most likely theater of which will be the southern front (Kherson-Zaporozhye). For any large-scale offensive actions, the Russian command does not have the main thing - a sufficient number of manpower. Perhaps the bet is on the defeat of the AFU strike forces in defense - due to air superiority and some advantage in artillery. With the subsequent transition to a counteroffensive.

It is also possible that the gradual displacement of the enemy from the territory of the DPR and the failure of the offensive on our positions on the southern front will force Kiev to agree to a truce (in my opinion, if there is such a hope, it is initially false and extremely idiotic, but it is quite likely, unfortunately).

From the AFU side, the offensive - the "battle for the initiative" - seems to be the only logical step from both purely military and military-political points of view.
Time will tell whether the forecast and assumptions are correct.
While the operational pause continues. But it's time will soon run out.

 

[Letter from Prague]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

This. Also keep in mind that UKR for them are like country fools. Hit them hard enough with the stick and they will run away. They do not have spiritual superiority like RU do. Such undertones are always a factor for RU. 

 

Underestimating Ukrainians (and the weak West) definitely has to do with it, but do not discount how much they just want to murder and brutalize people for fun and pleasure.

[Grigb]

We saw the logic of RU Nats Hawks. But below is why Doves reports to Putin that RU is tired of war:

Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan) about economical prospect of second largest city in RU

Quote

Smolny [City Admin building] admits, that Gazprom became the main donor to the budget of St. Petersburg in the first half of 2022. Without his money, everything would have gone to hell.

In the severe crisis year of 2022, revenues from oil and gas sector companies increased 2.9 times! Although there is no oil or gas in St. Petersburg, but in the past the pride of the [city] was the port, food industry and services. All this is now vegetating.

Because of the sanctions, the largest port in the Baltic Sea has actually stopped working, the entire city car industry has stopped, and this is three factories plus suppliers. There are problems at the shipyards, trade has gone down.

The problem is clear: when Gazprom begins to dive (and the current indicators no longer cause doubts about this), a huge city of six million will suddenly be left without a budget. And the question will arise not about development, but about banal survival.

[Letter from Prague]

One thing that is curious to me. Girkin and the like are pretty good at seeing why the Russian Army is not doing well in many ways. They often point to the same problems as this thread.

Yet the nationalists believe that mobilization will fix things, and this thread is convinced that mobilization will not actually help (for many reasons).

Where does that blindstop come from?

[danfrodo]

43 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Kherson is a trap for one side or the other. My bet is Putin is playing General, and the Russian army is going to be very sorry.

It's obvious how Kherson could be a trap for RU.  How could it be a trap for UKR?  

And while I am aware that I am swimming in my own confirmation bias, it does seem that Kherson has that whole "dictator says hold at all costs this untenable position for political reasons".   Yeah, this could shape up nicely.  Have we decided on a name if this turns into a kessel?  -- Kherson-ingrad?  Kherson Pocket 2.0?  Something better?

[G.I. Joe]

5 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

One thing that is curious to me. Girkin and the like are pretty good at seeing why the Russian Army is not doing well in many ways. They often point to the same problems as this thread.

Yet the nationalists believe that mobilization will fix things, and this thread is convinced that mobilization will not actually help (for many reasons).

Where does that blindstop come from?

My first guess would be that nationalists in general, almost by definition, tend to believe in very essentialist notions of national character and national destiny. I suspect this gives them a massive blindspot regarding how eager the people will be to rally to their cause rather than just seek a better government that mostly leaves them alone except for when they need it for essential services...such as protection from large groups of heavily armed people with essentialist notions about national destiny.

[Machor]

I guess it had become unavoidable at this point:

Russia to pull out of International Space Station

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62308069

"Russia says it will withdraw from the International Space Station (ISS) after 2024 and build its own station instead."

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

It's obvious how Kherson could be a trap for RU.  How could it be a trap for UKR?  

And while I am aware that I am swimming in my own confirmation bias, it does seem that Kherson has that whole "dictator says hold at all costs this untenable position for political reasons".   Yeah, this could shape up nicely.  Have we decided on a name if this turns into a kessel?  -- Kherson-ingrad?  Kherson Pocket 2.0?  Something better?

I am, slightly, worried that the UKR is being too cute by half and letting the Russians accumulate too much combat power on the west bank of the River. They need to COMPLETELY drop the bridges and take the bird in hand instead of trying to win the war in a single stroke.

Hopefully I am wrong and the UKR general staff are doing their usual brilliant job, but this feels risky.

[akd]

Oh man, that last one: "I know, I'll hide under the tank from the drones!"

 

[Grigb]

11 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

One thing that is curious to me. Girkin and the like are pretty good at seeing why the Russian Army is not doing well in many ways. They often point to the same problems as this thread.

Yet the nationalists believe that mobilization will fix things, and this thread is convinced that mobilization will not actually help (for many reasons).

Where does that blindstop come from?

Two things. First, they believe not so much in Mobilization as in legal cover Mobilization gives to execute whoever they consider a saboteur of the victory. For example, now they cannot legally threaten refuseniks back to front line. Mobilization gives them legal cover i think even with shooting them. The same can be said about RU industry - they cannot now threaten anybody in the industry. Mobilization gives them legal cover to order plants to work 24/7 and pay them nothing. 

Second, there is a belief in innate wonder power of RU people when war becomes Peoples war and the whole country mobilizes. For example, in 1812 RU could not hope to defeat French army in open battle. But RU mobilized and the war became a Peoples war and RU managed to turn the tide of the war. The same can be said about WW2 - Germans were extremely strong but RU mobilized, the war became a people's war and RU won. That's what believe says. 

[danfrodo]

44 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am, slightly, worried that the UKR is being too cute by half and letting the Russians accumulate too much combat power on the west bank of the River. They need to COMPLETELY drop the bridges and take the bird in hand instead of trying to win the war in a single stroke.

Hopefully I am wrong and the UKR general staff are doing their usual brilliant job, but this feels risky.

ah I see.  You are worried that UKR is being too clever by half.  Which is a good point.  Delay opens up more opportunities for unforeseen events -- as does haste also, I suppose 

Do I care if RU doubles it's combat power in Kherson region?  I actually want that.  Just more mouths to feed and vehicles to fuel over sporadically viable pontoon bridges, which will be all they have.

[SpitfireXI]

Over on Reddit this image was posted claiming to be a barrel from the BMP.  It looks like at 30mm barrel from a BMP-2 but I remain skeptical of most things found on the Reddit.  At first glance it looks too thick for a 30mm barrel but curious what other here think.  Of course the most interesting part of this pic is the difference in sizes of the sides of the barrel which is fascinating if true.   

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

How could it be a trap for UKR?  

UA could build conventional mass and make mistakes in exposing it to arty and other attacks, loosing a good portion of their fresh men and materiel.
I think it unlikely, but if we open the door to some heretofore-hidden RA capability for counter-offensive, it's possible.

[acrashb]

10 minutes ago, SpitfireXI said:

 Of course the most interesting part of this pic is the difference in sizes of the sides of the barrel which is fascinating if true.   

This has been posted before.

It's fairly common on rifle barrels to have a decentered bore, and it doesn't affect accuracy as long as it is not extreme.

Don't know about  cannon barrels, either in commonness or accuracy.

 

[panzermartin]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

HIMARS has Russian losses back up in the range of a battlegroup per day. 

Kherson is a trap for one side or the other. My bet is Putin is playing General, and the Russian army is going to be very sorry.

These losses are fantasy stats, as we have discussed before. I wouldn't take seriously their daily report either. 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/24/how-heavy-are-russian-casualties-in-ukraine

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

These losses are fantasy stats, as we have discussed before. I wouldn't take seriously their daily report either. 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/24/how-heavy-are-russian-casualties-in-ukraine

There will be an after war accounting soon enough, I suspect there won't be a single living Russian soldier In Ukraine outside of a POW camp when final tally gets counted up.  

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1552025055122653188

A (weak) video of something blowing up near Antonivka bridge. Things definitelly spicing up in Kherson front.

 

Another video of loitering munition strike...this one also with second drone observing the effects. Using them in pairs seemt o be common tactic by now.

On other note, it seems Ukrianians abandoned Vuhlehirska power plant and withdrew several kms.

[Butschi]

6 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Indeed. That thought isn't as far fetched as it may sound to some. The peace movement in Europe in the 1980s was highly infiltrated and partly financed by the Soviets and East Germans. Since the Greens have quite a lot of members with a communist background, we can safely assume some are still connected to their old masters.

 

6 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Yep, the same morons which demonstrated against Pershing II and NATO double-track policy. A lot of those have their roots in the 1968 movements.

Gentlemen, I have a really hard time keeping this post civil. Imagine me posting this in all seriousness: The Mujahideen were aided and partly financed by the CIA. Since Al Qaida has a lot of members with Mujahideen background we can safely assume they were still connected to their old masters back in September 2001. This is no less plausible than your theory but we could all imagine the ****storm (and I'd probably be on forum hiatus for a while...).

Btw: War is alwas bad. Period. Believe or not, some people back in the day just preferred being red to being dead. You can have a different opinion, weigh your freedom higher than your life (and that of your children, etc.). Others don't and that's a valid opinion, too.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Butschi
typos

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

These losses are fantasy stats, as we have discussed before. I wouldn't take seriously their daily report either. 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/24/how-heavy-are-russian-casualties-in-ukraine

We do have evidence that these stats are no more than 2X off.  Depends on one's definition of fantasy.  Exaggerated?  Probably.  But not crazy wrong.  UK thinks 25K dead.  We have evidence of ~800+ tanks lost.  So if we divide by 2 we get a conservative estimate.  I think reality is ~0.6X what UKR reports -- as if I know anything, but that's my gut feel.  

Fantasy is what RU reports.  Divide all that by 10 or 20.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1552025055122653188

A (weak) video of something blowing up near Antonivka bridge. Things definitelly spicing up in Kherson front.

 

Another video of loitering munition strike...this one also with second drone observing the effects. Using them in pairs seemt o be common tactic by now.

On other note, it seems Ukrianians abandoned Vuhlehirska power plant and withdrew several kms.

The loitering munitions strike.  Seems very targeted, I wonder who those folks were?  UKR traitors visiting their masters?  Nice friends though, drove off full speed right past the wounded.  

I saw on another site today UKR HIMARS/other hitting fuel depots.  "First they came for our ammo, then they came for our command posts, then they came for the fuel depots.  then when they came for me....."

 

[akd]

Dmitri's twitter is back.  Looks like a name change:

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by akd

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

The loitering munitions strike.  Seems very targeted, I wonder who those folks were?  UKR traitors visiting their masters?  Nice friends though, drove off full speed right past the wounded.  

I saw on another site today UKR HIMARS/other hitting fuel depots.  "First they came for our ammo, then they came for our command posts, then they came for the fuel depots.  then when they came for me....."

Reportedly FSB agents meeting undercover (in plain day...) at that checkpoint. Probably part of targeted strike with somebody on the ground giving coordinates. Yep, guys seem to be really surprised.

[Haiduk]

23th of July became the black day for 28th mech,brigade. In result of Russian missile strike on Mykolaiv, brigade HQ was hit. Commander of the brigade, colonel Vitaliy Huliayev and three lt.colonels Oleksandr Dayneko, Valentyn Serhiyenko, Vitaliy Bonderev were killed. 

On the photo - colonel Vitalyi Huliayev.

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

I like how we got to "Ukraine using assassination drones on Russian territory" and nobody bats an eye.