How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

50 minutes ago, billbindc said:

4. Maybe Russia is having a hard time keep the gas flowing because sanctions are hurting their ability to maintain their energy industry output while they really, really need the money. That would explain the seeming schizophrenia of their behavior. They want to sell the gas, are having hard time maintaining the flow and don't want to admit it. 

Ah, very good point. Occam's Razor agrees. That could also explain Mr. Schröder's "vacation" in Moscow. Secret negotiations with e.g. Siemens?

[dan/california]

34 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

1/4 of our Marines?  if we go that far then let's also lease a naval base.

We couldn't put anything in. naval base there we didn't want to lose in the first five minutes of hostilities. I am advocating Marines instead of army because they are more inclined to small unit dispersed action. The basing would need to be spread out to give the most difficult possible first strike target. And their logistical support likewise. Hide HIMARS and other missile systems all over the Island.

 

[MSBoxer]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

We couldn't put anything in. naval base there we didn't want to lose in the first five minutes of hostilities. I am advocating Marines instead of army because they are more inclined to small unit dispersed action. The basing would need to be spread out to give the most difficult possible first strike target. And their logistical support likewise. Hide HIMARS and other missile systems all over the Island.

 

I was thinking more along the lines of have a small piece of nominal US territory, even if it is just a few warehouses. As well as a dedicated port of call for destroyers and such.

 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

We will see if that opinion survives France having a warm and comfortable winter.

Can't srgue with that, though first we will see if France has a warm and comfortable winter. Currently half of their nuclear power plants aren't working and they have to buy our wind energy.

[Calamine Waffles]

11 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Does someone have a ground launched one besides the Israelis? or is this a subtle way of saying that Ukraine is getting a NATO aircraft of some description.

There are other surface-launched missiles with home-on-jam/home-on-radar capability, but they are usually anti-ship missiles (Exocet and Otomat have this feature).

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

4. Maybe Russia is having a hard time keep the gas flowing because sanctions are hurting their ability to maintain their energy industry output while they really, really need the money. That would explain the seeming schizophrenia of their behavior. They want to sell the gas, are having hard time maintaining the flow and don't want to admit it. 

I've been thinking this is in the equation somewhere since it started, because this is exactly what has been predicted since the day the major Western petrochemical companies said they would not do business with Russia any more.  It was pointed out that Russia had a huge reliance on Western companies for basic aspects of its oil and gas industries.  Rationally, it makes no sense for a country that has one major industry to be so reliant upon the companies of nations that it is choosing to be hostile towards.  But it is also rational to cut corners, leave the heavy lifting to others, and rake in the profits without thinking about tiny little things such as sustainability and national security.  There is no industry in Russia that seems to have done differently, so it is at least consistent.

What I can't tell is how much is this the horse leading the cart or the cart leading the horse.  On the one hand, Russia could blame the lack of gas on sanctions and leverage them to be lifted.  That would be the most straight forward way to maintain something akin to the status quo.  On the other hand, doing this demonstrates to everybody (including the domestic audience) how poorly managed Russia's biggest economic asset (energy) has been even since the warning shots of 2014.

I think this is another sign of how weak Putin views his own regime.  Seems to me he doesn't have that much faith that he can ride out a scandal of this magnitude and is seeking alternatives (German industrial pressure, Western government collapses, etc) to get what he wants without having to admit the truth.  We see this in the military sphere pretty much every day, so it is consistent.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

For those watching the Kadyrov situation for glimpses of what's going on within Russia, there is this tidbit from ISW's report from a few days ago adding more weight to the notion that Kadyrov is holding back forces from Ukraine in order to keep his regime secure.  At the very least this is a drain of potential manpower away from Ukraine, at worst it is a hint that more internal distractions for Putin's regime might be on the near horizon:

Quote

Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov seemingly confirmed that Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev has replaced Army General Aleksandr Dvornikov as acting commander of Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD).[3] Kadyrov stated that Kuzovlev, to whom he explicitly referred as acting commander of the SMD, visited Chechnya on July 23 in order to inspect Kadyrov’s “Akhmat” battalions.[4] Kuzovlev had previously served as chief of staff of the SMD and commanded the Russian grouping in Syria from November 2020 to February 2021.[5] Kuzovlev’s visit and inspection of Kadyrov’s forces, which comes two days after Kadyrov announced that these battalions will not be immediately deploying into Ukraine, may support other hints that Kadyrov is facing mounting domestic pressure.[6] The anti-Kadyrov Sheikh Mansour battalion reportedly announced an insurgency against Kadyrov’s regime on July 21, and Kadyrov may want to hold the newly formed Akhmat battalions in Chechnya to handle any local unrest.[7]

 

[Battlefront.com]

Anybody have more details on Ukraine's attacks in the northern section of occupied Kherson?  In particular the village of Vysokopolye, which seems to be the focus of this latest attack for the past few days.

Steve

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

I think this is another sign of how weak Putin views his own regime.  Seems to me he doesn't have that much faith that he can ride out a scandal of this magnitude and is seeking alternatives (German industrial pressure, Western government collapses, etc) to get what he wants without having to admit the truth.  We see this in the military sphere pretty much every day, so it is consistent.

Steve

The way I think to look at it is that Russia under Putin isn’t working through the steps of some grand plan. That’s a mythology that the West projects on to him that he’s more than happy to promote. Instead, this Russian government is lurching through these crises trying pretty much anything that seems like it might be useful at the moment. A case in point is the grain deal followed by bombing Odessa the next day. It’s senseless and counterproductive but given that nothing is working, the system is to try anything and everything. 

[dan/california]

This is the latest map I have seen. It is my vague understanding that the Ukrainians can bring most or all of the access too the salient under fire. There was a lot of chatter, and then none at all. The situation may be very fluid. The number of Russian troops in the village has been quoted as anywhere between two hundred and two thousand.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody have more details on Ukraine's attacks in the northern section of occupied Kherson?  In particular the village of Vysokopolye, which seems to be the focus of this latest attack for the past few days.

Steve

Arestovich claims RU transferred there arty and aviation and hit UKR advancing infantry (implied UKR losses) stabilizing the situation. RU cannot counter-attack, UKR cannot capture. It all depends on who will get fresh reserves there first. 

 

 

[Machor]

The Czechs are learning lessons from the Ukrainians:

Czech police add Ferrari taken from criminals to fleet

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62295674

"Police in the Czech Republic have unveiled the latest addition to their fleet of cars - a Ferrari capable of speeds up to 326km/h (202mph).

Police said the car had been confiscated from criminals."

[Grigb]

 

 

Good example how RU is mitigating HIMARS - with propaganda that RU AD learned how to deal with them (obviously bridges think otherwise). But I am posting it for several useful bits about Buk M3:

1. GMLRS (he called them HIMARS) is the most difficult target
2.  It flies too high at 22 000 meters with twice the speed of Smerch (RU unguided HIMARS analogue)
3. With the speed of GMLRS they have around 10 seconds for decision and interception
4. The biggest difficulty is RCS = 0.1

Edited July 26, 2022 by Grigb
added name of RU AD and corrected inaccuracies'

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

4. Maybe Russia is having a hard time keep the gas flowing because sanctions are hurting their ability to maintain their energy industry output while they really, really need the money. That would explain the seeming schizophrenia of their behavior. They want to sell the gas, are having hard time maintaining the flow and don't want to admit it. 

Excellent point. That would once again prove that we have to be more patient and give the sanctions the time to wreack their havoc.

[Grigb]

Reading RU Nats I am detecting changing mood from we are winning so will attack and finish the war to attacking is expensive lets UKR attack may be even capturing something, but we will defend and then finish them.

[poesel]

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

links with energy giants are much more rooted than just this guy, Kretshmer or similar creatures. And they are not easily severed, even if there is a political will.

Kretschmer is the MP of the state of Saxony and member of the conservative CDU. This state has a large proportion of right wing nut-job pro-Russian AfD members. The results of the general election in Germany have put the AfD in 1st and CDU in 3rd place in that state. So Kretschmer is now desperately playing for these parts of the voters.

Germany wide Kretschmer has no influence.

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Do you think current consensus in German political elites have a chance to survive the winter?

Yes. Revolutions in Germany usually start from the top, and it doesn't look like that.

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

The alternative theory is that Germany will have a NEW political elite by spring. The greens have a golden opportunity to become the biggest party in Germany by going 100% anti-Putin and pro nuclear,

What do you think is the likelihood for the Republican Party in the US to forbid private ownership of guns?
That is about the likelihood of the Greens going pro-nuclear.

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Just look at how much better off the French are in this mess with an ~80% nuclear grid.

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

We will see if that opinion survives France having a warm and comfortable winter.

I really do hope the French will have it warm in winter. Because if they don't get the other half of their reactors running, we will all have a problem.

6 hours ago, billbindc said:

4. Maybe Russia is having a hard time keep the gas flowing because sanctions are hurting their ability to maintain their energy industry output while they really, really need the money. 

Likely it is the other way round. You cannot just stop gas production. That could permanently damage the sources. They can also not just burn it (a bit too much gas) and there is no other place to deliver it than Europe.
I really wonder what would happen if _we_ closed the pipe. If the Russians would just blow the methane into the air, we needn't worry about cold winters anymore...

The Russians have more than enough money, but they cannot buy anything useful with it.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

What do you think is the likelihood for the Republican Party in the US to forbid private ownership of guns?
That is about the likelihood of the Greens going pro-nuclear.

Well said! The Greens were founded in parts by the anti-nuclear-power movement...

[Bearstronaut]

5 hours ago, Machor said:

The Czechs are learning lessons from the Ukrainians:

Czech police add Ferrari taken from criminals to fleet

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62295674

"Police in the Czech Republic have unveiled the latest addition to their fleet of cars - a Ferrari capable of speeds up to 326km/h (202mph).

Police said the car had been confiscated from criminals."

That’s pretty cool. AFIK cops in America just auction off those kinds of cars seized from criminals. Our cops just buy tons of unneeded military equipment. Hell, when I went to Ohio State the university police department had a MRAP.

[Beleg85]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

For those watching the Kadyrov situation for glimpses of what's going on within Russia, there is this tidbit from ISW's report from a few days ago adding more weight to the notion that Kadyrov is holding back forces from Ukraine in order to keep his regime secure.  At the very least this is a drain of potential manpower away from Ukraine, at worst it is a hint that more internal distractions for Putin's regime might be on the near horizon:

Interesting development. However, I wouldn't read too much from it for now yet. Inspection of new commander of Southern MD may be viewed in terms of "paying a visit", typical North Caucasus way of showing who is local boss. He probably has much more important tasks now, so diverting himself to Caucasus even for couple of days will shows support in the eyes of locals. This pilgrimage of course underlines that Kadyrov position in whole Russian system is formally as good as before, or even improving. Russian officers probably eat their teeth from rage listening to Kadyrov bragging about exploits of his guys.

Ofc it can interpreted in different way. If we exchange "Chechens" for "oprychniks" it may show Russia has increased problems with discipline, and needs many more blocking troops to keep them in ranks than they are now. This will not be cheap, though.

So, if we'll be flooded with photos of Chechens in Kherson front we can presume that RUS knows something bad is gonna happen there (for them) and try to prepare. Just as we spoke before.

3 hours ago, poesel said:

Kretschmer is the MP of the state of Saxony and member of the conservative CDU. This state has a large proportion of right wing nut-job pro-Russian AfD members. The results of the general election in Germany have put the AfD in 1st and CDU in 3rd place in that state. So Kretschmer is now desperately playing for these parts of the voters.

Germany wide Kretschmer has no influence.

Yep, that's right, but what I mean was real influence within CDU party elites. He seemed to be pretty ambitious, and CDU is also not far from SPD when comes to Putin appeasers.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Beleg85

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Well said! The Greens were founded in parts by the anti-nuclear-power movement...

Which probably is founded by Putin....

[Butschi]

17 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Which probably is founded by Putin....

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Yep, that's right, but what I mean was real influence within CDU party elites. He seemed to be pretty ambitious, and CDU is also not far from SPD when comes to Putin appeasers.

Letting the AfD become strongest party in the last election is not a career booster. You have to understand that AfD is to CDU rougly what Die Linke is to SPD. Without going into too much detail: Die Linke was co-founded by renegade SPD members which took with the a not unsignificant part of voters. But because the other founding faction was PDS, i.e. the follow-up party to SED, the ruling party of the GDR, this was always a lever the CDU could use to prevent a left wing alliance - every election campaign involved a stern warning the SPD would form a coalition with the ex-SED which meant that at the very least, the SPD always had to early on distance itself from a potential ally.

The situation between AfD is similar in that under Angela Merkel the CDU was not hardcore conservative enough for many. When the AfD was founded, many disappointed CDU voters went over to the AfD. But because they quickly allied with Nazis and others less than savory elements, allying with the AfD was a no-go for the CDU and so became a possible attack vector for SPD. In short, losing your state to your nemesis is not a good recommendation if you have ambitions to lead your party.

Re: Putin appeasers, IMHO you misread CDU and SPD a little here. Apart from Schröder and friends, I think it was never about Putin but about business. At the risk of greatly oversimplifying things: For the CDU, it is all about German economy. If the guy helps Germany Inc. (big business) he is their friend. SPD was always proud about their Ostpolitik (so, good diplomatic relations with Eastern European countries including Russia) but it is also: If it helps the job situation, the guy is their friend. Not unlike most other Western countries, we happily traded with dictators and autocrats as long as it was profitable.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Butschi

[Grigb]

Ok, big article incoming. It is written by infamous RU Nat writer and opinion journalist Maxim Kalashnikov. Girkin strongly recommends to read it. I can summarize it - Big Storm [1917 alike] is coming because everything looks worse than RU gov say. But if you are interested in the point of view RU Nats leadership, I recommend reading it in full.

 

Quote

Maxim KALASHNIKOV
SUMMER ON THE EVE OF A BIG THUNDERSTORM

Summing up some results of the five months of the proxy war with NATO in Ukraine (I discard the term "SMO"), I see that this summer is the eve of great upheavals. Which [we] should be prepared for. So far, events are inexorably moving into a course that is too similar to the scenario of the First World War for the Russian Empire.

 

Enemy plan for RU is mobilization trap

• RU troops are experiencing fatigue and losing capability to conduct any offensives
• The strength of RU defenses is highly uneven and full of holes
• static fighting and failures at front line will lead to major breakdown of RU war machine
• To win RU has to mobilize but RU gov is scared to start it due to swift drop of popularity and difficulty

Quote

The enemy's plan is very simple: to catch the Kremlin in a "mobilization trap". So, it is impossible to win the operation with the current peacetime forces, the further away – the more obvious the fatigue in the troops. The "grinding of the AFU" turns into unpleasant processes in one's own [RU] camp and the loss of the capability to conduct more or less large offensives. Plus (and this is already obvious) Kiev, smashing bridges across the Dnieper in the Kherson region, is preparing an operation there. While parts of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are literally stretched along a huge front, like that Trishkin kaftan [RU meme - greatcoat full of holes], which is why the enemy has the ability to create local superiority in forces in several directions.

"Positionism" [static fighting] and failures at the front are a direct path first to the breakdown of the military machine of the Russian Federation, and then to the general "vertical" [line] of control. The enemy counts on this.

To win, we need at least partial mobilization in the Russian Federation, [without it we] cannot cope with the mobilized AFU). But the mobilization, already 5 months late, scares our government. For it can lead to a drop in the rating and to a sharp change in the attitude of the population to military actions, simultaneously showing all managerial failures (mobilization is an extremely difficult matter),

The enemy is counting on the fact that the mobilization trap will be fatal for Moscow. And it is this calculation that needs to be broken.

 

RU battlefield state is bad

• There is a huge problem of mass refusniks. It is really disturbing for RU
• Unlike Kiev RU apparently do not have strategic reserves
• By the autumn the issue will come out [explode]

Quote

The problem is growing, and it is high time for the Kremlin to create a military inspection independent of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (even put Colonel Strelkov [Girkin] at its head!) to study the state of the troops at the front. Those who return from there talk about the mass of refuseniks- "five hundredths" and an acute shortage of personnel in the units. I won't divulge everything, but what I hear is disturbing. I also see the morale of those who come on leave. The fact that after the capture of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk there was a "positional" [static stage], serves as an indirect sign of a shortage of manpower. If this is true, then there will be no major offensives in the coming months. (Enough has already been said about how depleted parts of the LDPR are). Yes, the terbats of the AFU record desperate videos from the front (they throw us to the slaughter, we are tired!). the enemy is also in a tense situation, but the state of troops of the Russian Federation and LDNR are also not sugar. At the same time, Kiev has strategical reserves, but apparently, we do not.

The situation needs to be changed urgently, otherwise everything will come out by autumn. I am not at all satisfied if there are processes similar to the end of 1916 and the beginning of 1917 on the Eastern Front. Let me remind you that the military and civilian control systems are interconnected.

The Kremlin will have to find a way out of the mobilization "fork". To do this, we need to give the people something that will inspire them. But this is a separate topic.

 

RU armed forces capabilities are bad

• RU Armed Forces could perform several critical tasks
• While they had enough missiles there were critical failures with drones, ammunition, comms, recce, targeting and control
• These problems must be resolved are quickly as possible

Quote

The result of five months can also be considered that the military system of the Russian Federation needs serious repair. Now we are dealing not with the Armed Forces of the USSR and not with their residual potential [of USSR Army] (as in both Chechen campaigns and in Georgia), but with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation [He mean do not expect much from Armed Forces of RF because it is not Armed Forces of USSR]. The first serious exam (and an elementary comparison with the US wars with Iraq and Yugoslavia) showed the failure to solve a number of important tasks:
- The priority [to] "remove headquarters" (beheading) in Kiev.
- Depriving the enemy of communication, management and propaganda systems (TV studios and large Internet providers have not been destroyed). The AFU and the state apparatus of the enemy have not lost their coherence.
- The destruction of its transport system, which preserved the possibility of supplying the AFU even in "cauldrons". His bridges across the Dnieper remained intact.

At the same time (as shown by 5 months of fighting) The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation had a sufficient stock of high–precision weapons - various types of KR [Cruise missile] and OTR of the Iskander brand (not counting the old stocks of "Tochka-U").

The most serious miscalculations were revealed in the armament of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, in equipping them with drones (especially strike ones), in infantry ammunition, in the field of communication systems, reconnaissance / rapid targeting and control. We will also attribute here the failure to fully use the capabilities of the "small war" by special forces forces behind enemy lines.

In these circumstances, urgent remedial measures are needed. (Although 5 months is a huge period in military conditions). Both personnel and military-industrial solutions are needed, and the interception of the initiative in actions behind the front line. Procrastination (using Lenin's words) it's like death here.

 

RU economy front is bad

• RU did not use gas blackmail enough to bring Eu on its knees
• RU gov is not doing anything to prepare to mitigate bad state of RU industry  

Quote

In the field of economics, the results of five months are also not very encouraging. For example, in what lies on the surface. The EU's dependence on gas supplies from the Russian Federation is such that Moscow could bring Europe to its knees by achieving the return of our reserves confiscated by the EU, and the cessation of all arms supplies to Kiev, and the sale of natural gas only in exchange for supplies of necessary components and technologies to the Russian Federation. However, the "gas weapon" was not fully used.

The same can be said about the economic course within the Russian Federation. We do not see any announcement of a clear course for new industrialization [he dreams of Stalin industrialization - claimed big leap to catch up with western countries]. With appropriate tax, credit and customs tariff "maneuvers". We do not observe any corresponding personnel changes in the top echelon. And the appointment of Manturov as deputy prime minister responsible for industry, while retaining Nabiullina and Siluanov in their posts and not declaring a course for industrialization, resembles attempts to establish a new program on top of the old one, which has already failed. Everyone understands what this is fraught with.

The explanations of some "experts" about the fact that the candidacies of Nibiullina and Siluanov are presented to the president by the State Duma, and if he does not approve them, then the State Duma, they say, will begin the [Putin] impeachment procedure, I leave without comment.

 

RU external and internal position is worsening

• RU is losing respect outside
• RU gov is acting irresponsibly harshly inside

Quote

Everything that is happening is causing huge damage to the position of the Russian Federation in the foreign arena. The longer the "positionation" [static phase] lasts and the longer the fighting [happens]– the more China talks to us "through the lip" [using dismissive tone] and the stronger the confidence of the owners of the West that the Russian Federation will share the fate of the USSR of the late 1980s. There was also a strange "duality" of [RU] power, strongly reminding me of one of the old cartoons of Gennady Zhivotov in the newspaper "Tomorrow". [description below]

At a time when the prospects of the presidency of the late Mayor of Moscow Luzhkov were seriously discussed, Gennady drew him in the form of a double-headed eagle. One head is directed inside the Russian Federation – a cruel look and a whip in the paw. The second is to the West, towards NATO. This head is dressed in a kokoshnik and its paw is holding a gingerbread. Towards the tanks and ships of the West. [RU Nats were always offended that RU officials of 90s did not threaten and generally acted too kind to heinous westerners]

What about now? The formidable power machine of the Russian Federation throws into prison for some few lines in social networks and throws opera singer Cheldiyev into prison for 10 years for calling to protest in Vladikvakaz against lockdown ([real] killers are not given that much), but at the same time the Ukrainian side freely launches terrorist attacks on cities and villages of the Russian Federation and the Donetsk agglomeration. Absolutely without fear of retaliation in the form of a "response" to the headquarters and control centers in Kiev. Or Moscow's declaration of the Ukrainian authorities as terrorist organizations.

You know what this is fraught with. It would not be worth being afraid of decisive organizational and personnel measures. Stalin was not afraid to undertake them in the terrible 1941. But will the current government go for them?

 

Kremlin Endgame is wait till EU Armageddon

• The Kremlin is counting on the fact that the strongest socio-economic and political crises will begin in the West in the autumn and winter of 2022
• It will cause the West to negotiate with RU lifting sanctions and force Kiev to accept peace deal
• However, the above is not given. Also, a global crisis will threaten RU as well. So, RU must expect the worst.

Quote

I clearly see that the Kremlin is counting on the fact that the strongest socio-economic and political crises will begin in the West in the autumn and winter of 2022. That not only the economy will collapse in Ukraine and a moral breakdown will occur – but also in the West there will be a series of political crises, mass riots and economic downturns. And that in general the whole world will fall into a new circle of hell – a global depression. And then the West will be forced to negotiate with Moscow, lifting sanctions from the Russian Federation and recognizing its positions in Ukraine and forcing Kiev to stop resisting.

However, without the necessary personnel and organizational decisions, while maintaining the positional "bagpipes" [static phase] in the campaign and "neither this nor that" in the economy, these hopes threaten to go to dust. Yes, the West itself has greatly degraded and certainly not the same as under Reagan in 1980-1988, there are no strong leaders comparable to de Gaulle, Roosevelt, Churchill or the leader of the Third Reich. But he is strong with institutions, with his accumulated experience. It is not a fact that even in the conditions of an acute global crisis, he will stop the proxy war. Moreover, it will become one of the tools for him to get out of the crisis by destroying the Russian Federation and mastering its wreckage.[Yes, old RU cult mantra - heinous foreigners are dreaming to capture us and our land] And without a corresponding new course for industrialization, the global crisis will drag the Russian Federation into its black mouth. Hopes that there will be a Great Depression everywhere, and the Russian Federation will remain a kind of "island of security" left behind in 2008. The inevitable violent round of the globocrisis will become another harsh test of solvency for the authorities of the Russian Federation.

 

Prep talk for the coming Winter RU civil war - summer is last period of calm before the storm.

Quote

By virtue of all that has been said, I consider this summer the eve of the strongest storm. And I urge all patriots to prepare for it. Even in the event of the worst turn of events for us, we must fight for Victory.

More than a century ago, our strong-willed ancestors were able to cope with the decomposition of the old army and the collapse of the public administration system. They created new armed Forces and state apparatus, were able to mobilize the people and saved the country. Moreover, they almost defeated Poland and almost broke into the weakened Europe of the First World War. We know about the successful findings and miscalculations of those of our ancestors. And this is what gives me strength and faith in the ultimate Victory.

 

Discussion: RU state is always worse than you think - Art of Anti RU War.   

• As we all remember, back in April-May there was a lot of expectation of impending RU collapse due to mass desertion. It was the right conclusion for a Western-type Army. But as we discussed RU is a pressure cooker. It can hold intact longer than you expect, then it explodes. RU could hold on with tricks until August. Probably it can hold even august as well. But 500ths chickens are coming home to roost RU.  Finally, I need to note that our field agent Murz correctly reported that RU will face major manpower crisis in July-August.
• There are a lot of talks about stalemate and long war. All while neither kremlin nor general RU public are preparing for long war. RU has no appetite for a long war. This is not a narrative but cold hard fact
• RU Nats are fully sensing social explosion as soon as current Autumn. Simple coup is not a big deal now because even if it happens it would not satisfy neither RU Nats nor Liberals (general RU public will simply move to one or another side). It can tear RU apart if RU Nats are strong enough.  However, at this stage we do not know RU Nats real strength and their ability to convert RU social explosion into a full-scale civil war. Remember that RU heart - Moscow is liberal stronghold. USSR military could not handle an uprising there in 91. On other hand RU Liberals are pussies not fighters without appropriate leader.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

I must say you sound wise for your years. 

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Which probably is founded by Putin....

The (not just German) Greens have hurt Europe immensly with their anti-nuclear nonsense. They have been such a great boon to both fossil fuel industry and various evil regimes like Russia and the Saudis that it is fair to wonder whether they are paid by any of those.

Honestly, I wonder which reality is more scary, whether the Greens being corrupt or them doing everything because they really think it helps.