How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[poesel]

The first three Gepards have arrived in Ukraine:

Not connected but Russia will halve the gas delivery to Germany to 20% nominal from tomorrow. Reason is another defective turbine. Looks like they don’t even bother being creative. No one believes this anyway.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, MikeyD said:

I speculated awhile back that F16's utility would be that its got the necessary wiring to fire HARM missiles, something I expect Soviet-legacy aircraft lack

I suppose this can be Kh-58E (export model on 200 km), It can be launched from Su-24M, but it also should have container with Fantasmogoria targeting system

Edited July 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

Looked at some SBU (UKR security Service) channel with intercept recordings. Decided to translate a few interesting bits. Keep in mind that these are UKR selected calls. So, there is default bias but still they offer interesting RU ground view.

Quote

RU regular

• Kharkov direction 
• UKR shelling RU lines everyday
• UKR squeezing RU. RU are losing currently. Everything is different from RU TV
• They should have 90 tanks according to TOE but right now they have 14 together from the whole regiment
• Their unit RU Artillery is inaccurate. They were trained for two days. They cannot hit anything

LDNR fighter

• Kharkov direction Near Izum
• Believes no [RU] reserves are left
• Believes nobody [RU] wants to fight
• Comments RU are losing
• Says UKR smashed myth of undefeatable RU Army. 

RU regular

• Kharkov direction
• Says if he leaves for vacation he would not return back
• 40 men left [he did not say what unit but I believe he talks about riflemen of infantry battalion] and these 40 tried to advance couple of days ago so they are probably down to 20 now
• They are unable to capture a village [implying they are ramming one village all the time]
• [Unclear] 20 killed 100 wounded.
• So much corruption
• Boys got finished at Izum [probably means they become combat ineffective due to manpower losses]
• RU sends infantry without vehicles and tanks across a crosswalk [probably across the Border] 

RU regular

• Kharkiv direction
• Comments on UKR arty high accuracy
• RU cannot suppress UKR drones
• RU aviation is not present [no airplanes]
• RU helicopters appears may be 2 times a week shooting rockets at some forest from 5 km
• UKR helicopter may come twice a day but retreat quickly the same as RU
• Nothing there is [No any significant fire support]
• UKR uses highly mobile small mortar teams while RU uses big static inaccurate units

RU regular

• Kharkov direction
• Comment UKR have good defensive positions
• During RU advance UKR arty/mortars destroys attacking RU vehicles and panic RU soldiers
• No good prospect for RU offensive

Edited July 25, 2022 by Grigb
Added quote for convenience

[dan/california]

Kherson is a trap for one side or the other. Those nice neat lines of holes in the bridges argue pretty strongly that it is Russians sticking their unmentionables in a meat grinder. Another of attack of Putin playing general?

[Mattias]

5 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Grigb, I sense you and your family have a personal inflicted wound from soviet times or today's Russia. Because you are really passionate about hating your own country in a way I haven't seen before. It's true I can't debate that, from my safe western corner of fantasies. But I can spot the personal side. The thing is, don't worry the message is getting across and we are not actually that passionate to defend Russia's actions. Maybe we are just playing the devil's advocate to try to challenge our own mindset and seek the truth. Its not changing the course of history. Even if we think that evil or backwards countries still have national interests or rights when even criminals have the right in court to defend themselves and not get them straight to the electric chair. 

Panzermartin. The constant in your posts on this subject, as far as I have seen, is that you make no firm claims that you back up with facts. You merely apply a constant pressure of “what if”, “what about”, “maybe”. When you have been called out here you have back off, graciously waving a hand - “oh I was only voicing a thought - but I do understand your opinion”. But you don’t qualify your opinion, instead you merely shift focus - sliding sideways.

Personally I am immensely grateful for this forum precisely because it is not defined by people posting half baked opinions and then just leaving them. Instead real facts, as good as we can get them, are being weighed and analysed, and informed conclusions/assumptions made from from that.

The thing is, in July 2022 we are now beyond talking nice and moral ambiguities with russia . This is full on Germany 1939 with all the bells and whistles. We see all the signs of violent authoritarianism, in what is being said and in whats is being done. That really is all there is to it. How russia, and it’s supporters, rationalises it’s actions is now irrelevant, it is merely the words of a abuser/killer in action. Talking about justice for the perpetrator in that context is to insult and co-abuse the victims.

If I may suggest, or indeed urge: Take a stand, for or against - completely. This is now, or will be, a matter of supporting or opposing the 21st century equivalent of Nazi Germany. It defines you in the eyes of others.

And by the way, showing a “generous understanding” for the opponent’s strong emotions, his/her “personal” side, is front and center in the textbook of social media tactics. I mean, we all know that “hysterics” can not possibly be correct. So lets really highlight that bit in in the mass of facts that the other party produces.

Over and out.

[Grigb]

49 minutes ago, poesel said:

Not connected but Russia will halve the gas delivery to Germany to 20% nominal from tomorrow. Reason is another defective turbine. Looks like they don’t even bother being creative. No one believes this anyway.

Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan) believes that Kremlin go all in to blackmail Germany with winter shutdown of industry due to lack of gas. Thats' why they are so arrogant.  

[Battlefront.com]

Back (sorta) after some real life distractions.  Now I know what it's like to log in and find 8 pages to catch up on

I've been keeping up with Kherson news as best I can to guess at what is going on there.  A huge number of pages ago, when the first hits on the bridge were seen, I speculated that we would know within a few days if Ukraine was going to go on an immediate offensive or if they were going to let the Russians "stew" for a bit first. 

It seems pretty clear that Ukraine is continuing to err on the side slow and steady.  I think this is the right call in the given situation.  The Russians on the western bank aren't likely to withdraw ahead of combat and also aren't able to conduct anything more than local counter attacks.  There is no harm on the Ukrainian side if they wait to see what develops from the various depot and bridge attacks.

Is Russia reinforcing Kherson with anything more than stabilizing units?  That seems to be an open question at the moment.  If Russia sends in more than what is needed to keep the status quo, well... I think that indicates pressure from Putin.  More forces on the western bank means even more difficulty with logistics now, not to mention if Ukraine effectively neutralizes one or more bridges completely.

The recent strike that laid a linear pattern of holes on the Antonisvkyi Bridge seems to have been designed for both functional and psychological damage.  Russian troops passing over the bridge, or hearing about it second or third hand, should conclude that Ukraine can take it out whenever it wants to and there's nothing that Russia can do about it.  That has got to be demoralizing!

I guess Ukraine will continue to do much the same for the next week at least.  At some point soon one of the two sides is going to do something more dramatic.  I just can't figure out which side and what

Steve

[danfrodo]

Well, looks like some good news on this Monday.  Evidence of some nice weapons heading for Ukraine.  And evidence of (as per dan/CA) of Putin choosing to lose both the territory and the army -- Hitler would be proud.  A new Kherson pocket being formed.  Oh please please please put all that stuff from the trains into the kessel.  UKR needs the gear, the supplies, and the prisoners for swapping.  

And I am hoping we are done w the utterly pointless 'degrees of evil' discussion?  Those were hashed out over hundreds of posts thru varying threads for years on the WW2 pages.   

I am on board w Mattias, from post above, the present situation is what matters.  what is happening now is serial mass murder that will not stop until forced to stop.  And hopefully will be weakened to the point where it doesn't have the power to threaten its neighbors for a generation.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan) believes that Kremlin go all in to blackmail Germany with winter shutdown of industry due to lack of gas. Thats' why they are so arrogant.  

This fits a pattern of Russian wishful thinking.  Not just this war, but prior to it.  It is very much like Hitler thinking "now that Roosevelt is dead, we can defeat the Americans".  When all you have to grasp is straws...

Steve

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I speculated that we would know within a few days if Ukraine was going to go on an immediate offensive or if they were going to let the Russians "stew" for a bit first. 

Locals as if told Russian troops are abandoning (or partially withdrawing) from Studenok, Dovhen'ke, Shchurovo, Brusyno, Lyman - as if Russians told to locals they are going to Kherson, but this is RUMINT and unconfirmed. 

[Grigb]

Going back to the possibility of stalemate - except from discussion of RU Industrial-Military Complex issues by RU Nats Lobaev brothers (owners of the only RU sniper rifle manufacturing company)

Quote

We read Sladkov 's [RU mil reporter] angry post yesterday, where he emotionally suggests to the Tops to start f*cking the RU military-industrial complex (), so that they come up with new "things" for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and work more efficiently.

We have to disappoint dear Sladkov, in order to start f*cking the military-industrial complex, the "tops" must get in line. In a long queue, where the first are Russian banks (both private and public) and financial monitoring [RU gov org], then tax, and then, as a control [bullet] to the head, the Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation. It is these institutions that have been continuously putting the Russian military-industrial complex in a knee-elbow pose [for sex] since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine.

Moreover, for these structures, there is no war in Ukraine, as there are no sanctions, economic war with the West, and the cover of logistics chains. They live a calm, measured pre-war life and perform standard tasks such as "fass" and "gnaw" [dog commands to attack].

To make it clearer what we are talking about: since the beginning of the war, almost all Russian companies connected directly or indirectly with the military—industrial complex has been sanctioned. Respectively, in order to continue functioning and fulfill strategic tasks to equip the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with the necessary weapons (not to mention new developments or modernization of existing developments) they need to somehow bypass sanctions, the loss of proven logistics chains and the fears of suppliers from abroad to continue working with them. It can be done, the West is not the whole world, Russia is not the first country under sanctions, there is an example of North Korea, Iran and many other countries. And suppliers are ready to continue working, given that many of them are based in countries that are not aligned with the sanctions. But Russian companies have to come up with new payment schemes, logistics, and so on. And [they do] come up with [them]. And the strategic task seems to be possible to solve, but ... here, like a bolt from out of the blue, banks start checking transactions for weeks instead of one day, and then financial monitoring arrives, which starts blocking these accounts, and companies get blacklisted. But when the military-industrial complex bypasses these obstacles the tax service appears, which asks with surprised eyes, why payments are done not as before, but through a whole chain of suppliers, and even more surprised financiers from the military-industrial complex begin to explain that Russia is waging war in Ukraine, The Western world is waging an economic war and has already imposed thousands of sanctions, and in general, if this is not done, then there will be no supplies at all. After that the Prosecutor's Office visits [with] the "control [bullet] to the head", and it is useless to explain them anything.

Knowing all this, the Russian military-industrial complex is just marking time and blinking its eyes, because on the one hand there are strategic tasks, and on the other hand there are three walls built by your own state, after overcoming which you will most likely sit down [in prison] for a long time and [will] explain to your cellmates there that you [just] performed a strategic task for the country.

It is in this mode that the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation has been living for the last 4 months. On the one hand, Western sanctions, on the other hand, sanctions from their own banks and inspection structures. It may seem crazy to you, but these are facts. And these facts suggest that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation may not dream of any new "things", one can only hope that the stock of old things will be replenished in time, which is also not a fact. And when people at the top are talking about the military-industrial complex from blue screens [of TVs] and handing out strategic tasks, then they probably need to know that these tasks are only feasible when the state machine helps and does not poison performers on a daily basis.

 

[Haiduk]

Russians claim they created in Kherson oblast whole volunteer brigade from "true ukrainians, which will clear own land from nazi-scumm". I think, their "brigade" should be battalion-level indeed.  The man, who speaks on the video is Igor Markov, former deputy of parliament, whith active pro-Russian position. He lived in Odesa, in 2006 established pro-Russian party "Rodina" ("Motherland" in Russian). In 2013 he entered in parliament fraction of "Party of Regions", but in his active pro-Russian activity and charisma Yanukovich have seen potential rival and Markov was arrested in October 2013 before Maidan in an old case of 2007, when he participated in beaten of pro-Ukrainain activists in Odesa, but the court "didn't find corpus delicti". 

Pro-Russian followers of Markov, using the chaos in Odesa after Maidan on 25th Feb 2014 forced the court to free Markov and he escaped to Moscow. Later in 2015 he was detained in Italy by Interpol, but court of Milan rejected to give him to Ukraine. Now this scum appeared here.   

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russia unpacks 2S7 Poin stores in artillery base in Omsk. 

And here some Pions are on the way to Ukraine. I supose, Russians want to use them in counter-battery fire against western howitzers, which often have positions out of the range of Russian artillery

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

On Donbas now most heavy clashes in Novoluhanske area - Russian/LPR troops assault local power plant. Novoluhanske is in the grey zone, but Ukraianin army periodically enters to part of town. Several times Russians managed to take somne part of th e plant, but each time our troops counter-attacked and threw them out. Today Russians could seiz hi-voltage sudtation of the plant. The battle is continue 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russians are setting pontoon bridge near damaged Daryivka bridge through Inhulets

On the photo you can see old road approaches to the place where in 90th years only pontoon bridge existed instead capital bridge

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan) believes that Kremlin go all in to blackmail Germany with winter shutdown of industry due to lack of gas. Thats' why they are so arrogant.  

That makes no sense. What they deliver now is too little anyway. Not much of a difference to deliver nothing. The incentive is too low.

Let’s see how the discussion will go in the next few days.

[Letter from Prague]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Just look at the French sales of Exocet and all the ungodly things they were jerry-rigged to..

doesn't necessarily mean much in terms of platforms.

Yeah, there's also the story of Iran equipping F-14 with SAM missiles, because they ran out of normal missiles or something.

...

With regards to Russian evil, you don't have to go to Grigb. My country was occupied by Red Army between 1968 and 1991. Between the generation of my parents (who were teenagers when it happened and lived most of their life under Russian occupation) or grandparents (who generally had the luck to compare Russian and Nazi occupation) you would be hard pressed to find someone who doesn't have horrifying experience with the Russians.

And of course, this happened when the Czechoslovak Communist regime was trying to liberalize itself, and Russians put hardliners back in power, so they are responsible for all the evil the regime did after that. The lagrs they built were special - they were all (or almost all) Uranium mines. Our dissidents were being tortured to death making material for the Russian nukes that threaten the world to this day.

[Billy Ringo]

At what point do the Germans say enough is enough and tell the Russians to keep their gas?  Sometimes taking the hard road and moving on is better than being yanked around constantly.  (Not to mention pride.)  At least you know what's going to happen and not constantly having to rework your plans.

Just how bad would it be for the Germans to tell Putin to Hell with you and figure out some hard alternatives?

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russia unpacks 2S7 Poin stores in artillery base in Omsk. 

And here some Pions are on the way to Ukraine. I supose, Russians want to use them in counter-battery fire against western howitzers, which often have positions out of the range of Russian artillery

 

Don't Pions need *14* crewmen? How does this work in an army that's can't fill the ranks? 

[Butschi]

10 minutes ago, poesel said:

That makes no sense. What they deliver now is too little anyway. Not much of a difference to deliver nothing. The incentive is too low.

Let’s see how the discussion will go in the next few days.

I'm also still puzzled. As I wrote above, I think the best strategy to hurt us would be to just go back to 100%. That would entirely divide the German society. All the usual suspects would start trumpeting how we did unjustice to Putin who obviously is still a trustworthy partner, while the US do everything to destabilize Europe in order to sell us their dirty fracking gas. Many would listen, not just on left and right fringes of the political spectrum but especially those with prosperity as ersatz-religion and who don't give a damn about the world as long as they can continue their well deserved good life. The second best strategy would be to close the valves entirely. Every bit of gas they send us gives us room to maneuvre, more options to mitigate the effects. By law private heating has priority and people will be reluctant to freeze at 10°C in order to keep the economy running. But every degree closer to adequate heating makes it easier to convince people. 

No, I really think the Kremlin dropped the ball on this one. My take is, there are three possible reasons:

1. Putin et al. are really getting delusional and now believe their own propaganda. Far from impossible but frankly this is my least favourite answer just because were are sometimes way to close to become this echo chamber where it is awesome, competent west vs. incompetent stupid Russia. I prefer to overestimating my opponent over underestimating him.
2. This has nothing to do with us. It is a show entirely for the home front, to show the people the Kremlin is in control.
3. They want to keep the money flowing in the long term: Off the top of my head, there is a substantial minimum payment clause for at least 20 years (?). Germany has already said that they want to get rid of the dependency on Russsian gas, so in the long run they won't sell more than that, anyway. But that money will only get paid if the contract is upheld. We have told the Russians the several times that they have to honour the contract, so we can't very well just break it. The only way to get around that is either Russia violates the contract or there is a general gas embargo. The latter is not likely to come any time soon, the former... well, the Russians keep delivering the stuff but due technical problems, maintenance, you name it they just can't send enough. That way they hurt us some but retain some long term trade income.

Sounds too constructed? Just my thoughts.

[Grigb]

Watching fresh Grikin video. It is mostly useless political chit chat with a bit of update about frontline state.

Quote

RU can only resist UKR offensive. No offensive operation is possible due to manpower shortage. Main reason for losses is 500. A lot of 500 losses come from ending of 3-month contracts. Command does not make any attempts at improvement of manpower issue. If there is no replenishment soon the defeat is inevitable. RU makes trick - transfer Mobiks to RU regular army. It makes unit looks full but does not add any new manpower. RU Divisions and Brigades were often nothing more but battalions. Some battalions are companies or even platoons.

UKR has the ability to advance on multiple direction. UKR is massing forces on Kherson, Zaporojnaya, Kharkov and North Kharkov directions. Claims If Antonovsky bridge is destroyed humanitarian catastrophe is possible [probably the reason UKR did not cut it completely]

  [UPDATE] Girkin claims conflict with CIT assessment that RU is going to lauch some offencive operations this week.

 

Quote

It seems that this week we will really see some kind of activation on the front line: all last week we have been receiving reports about the movements of Russian troops

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Don't Pions need *14* crewmen? How does this work in an army that's can't fill the ranks? 

One intercepted call mention they have arty men trained in couple of days (obviously with extremely bad result).

[Haiduk]

Allegidly situation around Novoluhanske and power plant. There is opinion that Russians are so desperately assaulting the power plant, because can't to breakthrough to Semyhirya from M03 road. Their attacks constantly repel near Vershyna village. The coming to Semyhirya can open to Russians minor, but useful road, leading to the road on Bakhmut

Russians are attacking this 11 km front in Novoluhanske area from the south and from the east by forces of DPR (elements of 5th MRB "Oplot", 11th MRR "Vostok", tank battalion "Dizel" and artillery brigade "Kolchuga" (former "Kalmius")). Russians represented with BTGs of 127th MRD, 57th MRB, 40th naval infantry brigade and 336th naval infantry brigades.

Also the sat photo of power plant - in blue arrow hi-voltage substation, main task of Russian attacks of last two weeks

  

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

Just how bad would it be for the Germans to tell Putin to Hell with you and figure out some hard alternatives?

Very bad. It could seriously tank our economy. The government is frantically trying to find alternatives but if it was easy it would already have happened.

 

1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

At what point do the Germans say enough is enough and tell the Russians to keep their gas?  Sometimes taking the hard road and moving on is better than being yanked around constantly.  (Not to mention pride.)  At least you know what's going to happen and not constantly having to rework your plans.

Of course we plan for the worst. But everything on top of that gives us a little more room to maneuvre. Pride is a bad advisor and should never guide a government. And while I fully agree that we should get rid of the stuff asap, on a rational level I have to concede that the better strategy is to take what gas we can now while we are busy finding alternatives. Even if we were to stop buying anymore gas now, we'd still have to get the energy from somewhere. Germany is a rather wealthy country, so I assume we will be able to obtain it. But with limited supply that means we are putting more money on the table than someone else who then will just go without energy. Darwin sends warm regards.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Butschi

[Beleg85]

Holly molly, this is "Franz Ferdinand historical moment" (sorry for link to VS24, but this kick is hillarious):

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1551582164428390400

 

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

What happened with PL01 project? Looked like Startroopers vehicle ) You made decision to rise army capabilities as quick as possible and don't wait for this development? I wonder what we will do after war - either continue to develop some unclear "Molot" project (anyway based on 30-years old concept) or completely other tank will be started to develop "from zero", taking into account modern trends. Or we will buy foreign tanks like you. But our tank-producing lobby doesn't allow to do this 

 

PL01 It was just fancy prototype, sometimes engineers play with such toys to lure media.

A lot of decisions regarding new shopping have no sense from outsider perspective. There is a big scandal now called "Krabgate", as they started to buy Korean stuff "on yesterday" and will probbaly chopp production of our cool Krabs (who were only half-Korean). I am sure @Huba will explain you more details.

I think it is connected to 1) Sense of urgency and 2) amount of equipment that gone to Ukraine- not only heavy, but also personal (tons of rifles like Grots, sniper ones, hand granate launchers old and new, etc. ;reportedly even venerable, small Komars were actually very useful in the hands of defenders of Mariupol/Kiyv). A lot of it is probably underreported, just as T-91 deliveries were. It seems to be better strategy to send, train and build up than announcing everything as default. Less morale-building, but with pleasant surprises along the way. Still, of course, not enough for UAF to conduct some large offensive out of the blue.

I try to see this conflict from historian perspective. If I will keep in hand a book in 5-year time describing this conflict, I wonder what events will be there? Certainly there are heroic ones, like Mariupol defence or vlaiant stand of 1st Tank Brigade in Chernichow. But NATO deliveries will need a separate chapter on its own. Scale is really breathtaking, execution seems largely very good, even OpSec seems surprisingly effective considering we are open societies with free media flow.

About Russian abilities to hit something, it is worth to mention there were whole trains with 122/152 ammo standing several days on the railroads next to Lviv about 2 months ago. And nothing hit them somehow.