How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

CIT believes Operational pause is finishing at Severs and Bakhmut direction. 

Quote

Perhaps the operational pause is coming to an end in the Seversky and Bakhmut directions; it seems that a gradual transition has begun from the stage of "we are in an operational pause, there are just shelling" to the stage of "let's attack":

• according to the maps of the LiveUAMap project, Belogorovka and the territory just to the west of it are already under the control of Russian forces;
• Russian troops are gradually encircling Grigoryevka, Donetsk region;
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine informs that Russian forces in the Bakhmut direction are advancing towards the village of Pokrovskoye and are entrenched on its outskirts.

 

[akd]

Glorious:

 

EDIT: seems this was from Melitopol on July 3rd.

Edited July 20, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Obviously dropping the bridge is preferable to degrading it, but in this instance I don't think it really matters because this is their only viable LOC.  Any degradation has an impact on their ability to defend the other side.  The more it is degraded, the more impact. 

Then there is the psychological factor for the forces over there, knowing that they're in danger of being completely cut off from retreat and resupply.

There is also the practical strategic planning impact.  Russia is short of combat power and they know it.  How enthusiastic do you think they'll be to invest more on the western side if they think that at any time they could be swimming back without any equipment or, worse, surrendering en mas?

The battle for the western bank has already been decided.  How long it will take to clear the Russians off it, and in what form it will take, is what is on the table now.  I think Russia knows this as well.  Lavrov can't rant and threaten a way out of this mess.

Steve

 

So Kherson...ooo boy.  Well first off, I am buying off on the whole "traitor" theory that Kherson was likely sold-out, that or the UA simply got stretched too thin but this is the major southern axis so I do not see how they did not prioritize it - maybe they did and Russians down this way actually demonstrated talent.  Why?

Well because on paper this city should be damn near impossible to take from the South:

By my eyes there are roughly 5 crossing sites that one can pull from Google.  The Dnieper is a deep old river so I cannot tell if there are any fording sites but I doubt it.  Wiki says the Dnieper runs at about 1.5 m/sec which is fairly slow and easily swimmable and pontoon-able.  However, Kherson is right on a major delta stretch, to the point that a second river breaks out called the "Konka" (sp?).  Anyway this is a major water obstacle, like Rhine river "major".  The river itself ranges from 500-1000m but that is not the rub, it is the delta - that is a very angry and hungry looking swamp that looks like the mouth of a Dune Sandworm to mobility.  Sure you can pontoon the bridge but those wetlands look like they will eat Divisions, we are talking major road and causeway work in order to sustain.

As I said there are 5 possible crossing sites: 

-Starting on the far left, there is a possible amphibious run between Sofiivka and Rybal'Che but this is also a major undertaking.  That is a 12km run so we are basically talking D-Day but there is infrastructure on either side to support (I am not sure about the shoreline, would need to do an MSFS flight).

- Then we have the Antonovskiy Bridge that the UA is currently turning into swiss cheese.  That is a 1000m crossing without the bridge and a lot of greenish looking swamp hell on the N bank.  Tough.

- We then have what looks like a rail bridge called "Antonivsʹkyy Zaliznychnyy", not sure if it still up but it is about 6km upstream from the Antonovskiy.  If the UA did not blow that one up it will have to go as well (did a quick check but cannot see if it was already).

- Next is what I think is the only decent amphib/pontoon site along this gawd-awful shoreline.  Just on the western outskirts of L'vov about 34 km up from the Antonovskiy there is what looks like a viable crossing site.  The south bank aint great but this is a hydro-electric line crossing so road infrastructure is there (note would have to do a second small bridging op about 1km to the east on a small inlet), which takes one up to an old monastery in Korsunka.

- Last, is the road bridge at the Kakhovka hydro electrical station.  Looks modern and solid.

After that further upstream the Dnieper expands out and although one could find a decent shore line we are basically back to D-Day.

So What?  Well it is like Stalingrad, a city with it back to a major obstacle coming from the UA side.  All war is communication and retaking Kherson will send big political signals in all directions.  It would be a clear sign that the UA can do offensive in a major way, which should assist in shoring up the cottage-cheese spines of some in the West.  It would also be a major blow to Russia, effectively undeciding that entire front.  I am sure they will try and sell it as "we withdrew for the good of the people" noise but even the most doe-eyed Russian believer will have a seed of doubt planted.  

So to the big question: how does the UA take Kherson? Well a couple schools of thought, first a Western solution:

Coming from the Western School of Manoeuvre, the game here would be to cut off Kherson and choke it out, without having to do heavy urban combat.  So Shape, Manoeuvre, Isolate and Attrit would be the order of the day.  A big armored led spearhead thrust down from the North across all that wonderful tank country.  A bounce crossing on those two eastern sites, complete with SF, Airmobile snaps and then swing westward and cut the Russian LOCs completely.  Meanwhile keep the pressure on Kherson from the North, while using deep strike to Fix supporting forces.  Very nice, so long as one has air supremacy.  

I will say it now, if the UA can do this, the war will be over much sooner than anyone thinks. As I have noted before, I have grown allergic to big bold strokes in this war.  The biggest issue, beyond establishing pre-conditions, is time-space-force.  That is about a 130 km thunder run and would likely take a couple modern heavy divisions to pull off, maybe three.  I do not think the UA has that kind of force, nor are they going to get the pre-conditions to support it.  I have no doubt that pundits will start drawing stuff like this...use it for profiling purposes.  I pray to god that the UA could pull off this offensive but I also do not think he is listening...very unlikely.  So what could a UA offense look like?

Attrition-to-Manoeuvre, not the other way around.  The UA could compress Kherson and pull in a lot of RA in reaction.  With their superior ISR and deep strike they could do a lot of damage in depth - given the ranges, this whole thing at Antonovskiy could be a setup for ATACMS arrival.  If they start hitting EW, then UAS are also back on the menu.  As they compress Kherson, their artillery will pull in range as well.  As they pull and bleed the RA, an opportunity to do a North South offensive opens up but only take it to the bridge at the hydro-plant, while cutting every crossing.  You might bag the RA forces to the east.

The major problem with this one is Kherson itself.  If the RA is trapped like rats, they will fight like them.  The UA could break itself in a city of that size (which they know after Mariupol).  My guess is that they will simply bleed the RA white here, hitting them once again along the entire length of the RA operational system.  This presents the modern dilemma of "stay and bleed out" or "withdraw, preserve force and lose the city", either way, so long as the UA can keep pulling the RA in and killing them in numbers while they try and hold onto Kherson it is a winnable situation.

Key will be setting operational conditions and holding onto them.  Deep strike, deep strike and deep strike.  They need to keep hitting RA logistics to keep the RA guns silent and then the UA guns can go to work on the rest without fearing overwhelming c-btty.

How is it actually going to go down...no idea.  In fact it might not happen at all, the whole thing could be a feint.  But one thing is for sure, it has got the Russians wondering.  And on the battlefield uncertainty on your opponent is a useful thing. 

[akd]

Javelin volunteers Russian TC for cosmonaut program:

 

[akd]

Almost feel sorry for them. Almost. (I believe parts of this were previously seen, so likely old):

 

Recent Kraken raid on Bilohorivka resulted in some interesting captures and material:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

If these war crime trials do happen they should be interesting.

[Der Zeitgeist]

14 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

If these war crime trials do happen they should be interesting.

Especially with the war still running and Putin still in power. I don't think we ever had a constellation like this with war crime trials before. Not much they can do about it, though. Can't exactly invade the Netherlands.

[Grigb]

59 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The major problem with this one is Kherson itself.  If the RA is trapped like rats, they will fight like them.  The UA could break itself in a city of that size (which they know after Mariupol).  My guess is that they will simply bleed the RA white here, hitting them once again along the entire length of the RA operational system.  This presents the modern dilemma of "stay and bleed out" or "withdraw, preserve force and lose the city", either way, so long as the UA can keep pulling the RA in and killing them in numbers while they try and hold onto Kherson it is a winnable situation.

Key will be setting operational conditions and holding onto them.  Deep strike, deep strike and deep strike.  They need to keep hitting RA logistics to keep the RA guns silent and then the UA guns can go to work on the rest without fearing overwhelming c-btty.

 

I should add that RU side does not have enough moral to conduct reverse Mariupol battle. Once supply disrupted enough RU will have serious moral problem - the whole situation will look like trap and RU high command will look like inept for keeping people there. Slow moving tragedy with trapped RU soldiers is nightmare political and moral scenario for RU gov. 

[womble]

What's the flight time for a HIMARS rocket from a launcher at "out of CB range" to the bridge at Kherson? Can they "snipe" at vehicles crossing the bridge (assuming real time notification of the start of crossing), or would the target be across before the warhead could arrive? Would it be feasible to have missiles or arty "on call" to interdict any detected movement across (in either direction). Are "jump off points" for crossings, where vehicles might sit, waiting for repairs to be completed, likely to be more hittable?

[Grigb]

According to DNR monitoring center today UKR helicopters made several attacks at frontline

• 14:53 - Novgorodskoye – Shirokaya Balka: helicopter fired 12 unguided rockets of 80 mm caliber
• 16:06 - Novgorodskoye – Shirokaya Balka : helicopter fired 18 unguided rockets of 80 mm caliber
• 7:24 - Novgorodskoye – Novoselovka : helicopter fired 14 unguided rockets of 80 mm caliber
• 18:45 - Novgorodskoye – Novoselovka : helicopter fired 15 unguided rockets of 80 mm caliber

Obviously, it cannot be because all UKR aircraft and helicopters were destroyed on 24 of February. But I checked the whole channel, and it seems these are the first UKR helicopter attacks recorded at DNR frontline from the start of the war. If it is correct it could be a sign that UKR HIMARS strikes degraded RU AD. 

 

[Panserjeger]

 

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3098918/opening-remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-at-the-fourth-ukrain/

 

Edited July 20, 2022 by cesmonkey

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I should add that RU side does not have enough moral to conduct reverse Mariupol battle. Once supply disrupted enough RU will have serious moral problem - the whole situation will look like trap and RU high command will look like inept for keeping people there. Slow moving tragedy with trapped RU soldiers is nightmare political and moral scenario for RU gov. 

They can swim to the other bank, should be doable for reasonably fit person. Probably makes the situation worse, as there is an escape route, even uf most humiliating one. 

In other news, an interesting claim:

 

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Grigb said:

According to DNR monitoring center today UKR helicopters made several attacks at frontline

• 14:53 - Novgorodskoye – Shirokaya Balka: helicopter fired 12 unguided rockets of 80 mm caliber
• 16:06 - Novgorodskoye – Shirokaya Balka : helicopter fired 18 unguided rockets of 80 mm caliber
• 7:24 - Novgorodskoye – Novoselovka : helicopter fired 14 unguided rockets of 80 mm caliber
• 18:45 - Novgorodskoye – Novoselovka : helicopter fired 15 unguided rockets of 80 mm caliber

Obviously, it cannot be because all UKR aircraft and helicopters were destroyed on 24 of February. But I checked the whole channel, and it seems these are the first UKR helicopter attacks recorded at DNR frontline from the start of the war. If it is correct it could be a sign that UKR HIMARS strikes degraded RU AD. 

 

Novgorodskoe is New-York now, who will see on the map. Horlivka area, after short flash at the beginning of war, and some later, when DPR seized several villages, outflanking Avdiivka -  all this time was relatively quiet place. From DPR forces there 3rd and 5th MRBs should be. I almost nothing heard about their significant participation on other directions

Edited July 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

 

Since US only now included 1000 of guided artillery ammunition in next aid batch, I still doubt we have something like this. In our twitters also many opinions, that holes on the bridge more match to artillery shells, than missiles. And this could do Caesars, for example. Or PzH2000. But locals told about missiles. Alas, no videos of impacts. 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Novgorodskoe is New-York now, who will see on the map. Horlivka area, after short flash at the beginning of war, and some later, when DPR seized several villages, outflanking Avdiivka -  all this time was relatively quiet place.

Yes, but channel documents strikes at whole DNR frontline. For example, the first 155mm strike was recorded on 29 of May (Donetsk Kalinin district). 

[A Canadian Cat]

9 hours ago, Grigb said:

The hilarious part is that the judge is facing huge dilemma - he cannot rule for Shevchuk but ruling against him means judge and by extension RU gov believe that RU motherland is indeed the president's ass, which you have to slabber and kiss all the time.

Humour, mocking and sarcasm are actually pretty powerful weapons against autocrats. The look weak smacking people who are being funny but they also look weak when people laugh at them.

https://reliefweb.int/report/world/blueprint-revolution-why-hobbits-and-humour-work-better-violence'

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-april-27-2015-1.3049974/architect-s-blueprint-for-a-revolution-uses-humour-against-tyranny-1.3050012

[FancyCat]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

I don't get the today's declaration by Lavrov at all. Kherson cannot be kept by RU, it is physically impossible to sustain it. Writing is in the wall for it, in huge glowing letters. If RU gives battle without some stop-loss mechanizm in mind, it might turn into crushing defeat. 

And this declaration will only make the loss of  Kherson more humiliating. Are they that delusional, or is he preparing ground for something? 

Lavrov's statement is merely one of a extremely long line of statements by the RU government, state media pushing for annexation of "New Russia", there is no way to prep the Russian people or foreign relations that Kherson is being given away as a "goodwill gesture", like literally none.

The seizure of Kherson oblast aside from actually getting a whole oblast also meant a great jumping point for the liberation of Odessa and further pushes into Ukraine. These areas are also part of this "New Russia".

Mind you, the same structures being created to annex these regions are the same structures needed to more closely turn these regions into manpower and used like the puppet regimes in the Donbas. It just so happens that these structures are one and the same.

This issue is bound to occur wherever occupation administrations are set up cause this is how Russia justifies it. These are regions of Russia, composed of Russians, under threat by Nazis, seeking the return of the USSR.

[akd]

Better version of that claimed Javelin kill:
 

 

[FancyCat]

wow some precise hits.

 

 

[Haiduk]

@The_Capt @Battlefront.com

So, what changed from enemy side on Kherson direction according to Konstantin Mashovets info. 

Russian comamnd is really concerning about anounced UKR offensive on Kherson and continue to saturate this area with reinforcements. 

Previous reinforcements about which I wrote here about dozen days ago, played own stabillizing role - Russians could stop UKR advance in most problem zone in triangle Arkhanhelske - Vysokopillia - Novovoznesenske. In particular, they repelled attempts of UKR trrops to develop own success after liberating of Potiomkyne village in direction of Novovoznesenske to choke supply of Vysokopillia. Also enemy troops reiforced own "red thin line", defending positions from Myroliubivka along T2207 road and to Zolota Balka on the bank of Dnieper. UKR troops recently was conducting probes from Osokorivka to Zolota Balka, so this forced enemy to move additional troops and in this backwater district. Thus, in present time in this northern sector Russian troops have 7-8 BTGs of 205th MRB (almost in full composition), 34th MRB (mountain), 11th air-assault brigade, 10th Spetsnaz brigade and aditionally to this 7-8 BTGs they have here at least two rifle battalions of LDPR conscripts.

Going south. This is sector of UKR attempt of Inhulets crossing: Velyka Oleksandrivka - Davydiv Brid - Snihurivka. As I've written recenty, Russians could completely stabilize situation here. Units of UKR 36th marines brigade and 28th brigade withdrew behind Inhulets back after several weeks of desperate Russian counter attacks and artillery shellings, but part of bridgehead in the bend of Inhulets between Lozove  - Velyke Artakove - Bila Krynytsia - Bilohirka still under UKR control. In this place Inhulets has become shallow, so troops can cross through the fords. Our artilelry and ATGMs continue to shell enemy through the river, Russians do the same, but they didn't do any visible actions to take this remains of bridgehead. In this area Russians have now about 5-6 BTGs from 7th air-assault division (moutntain) and 1-2 "shortened" BTG, combined from different motor-rifle units of 49th CAA. Two weeks agor Russians hd here 6-8 BTGs, but two BTGs (one of them likely from "firemen team" of 11th air-assault, but I can be wrong) Russian command moved from this sector futher to the south, where due to UKR tactic now appeared new flash of UKR activity - Kyselivka area.   

Separately some words about southern point of this sector - Snihurivka. Small town, which plays important role, approaches to which Russians turned out in heavy fortified place. Since my previous post, no significant activity here - both sides are making probes and hammerd each other with artillery. UKR troops have not yet been able to crack Russian defense here.      

Next zone is Kherson-Berislav area. Russians have here 7-8 BTGs from 126th coastal defense MRB, 127th recon brigade, 33rd and 255th MRRs of 20th MRD, probably 11th air-assault brigade.   + two battalions of LDRP conscripts. In this area in last days UKR troops could advance northern from Blahodante and Kyselivka, but Russian troops, using reinforcements are continuing to counter atatck from Shmidtove on Liubomyrivka - Ternovi Pody section, trying to break through here and to come in the rear to our grouping, which advance aside M-14 road. This forced our troops to slow down and to turn own left flank toward the enemy. Though, situation can turn out in such way, that Russian spearhead in Shmidtove can get our troops in own rear too and here about two weeks we canm see limited tactical actions like a game who takes the back of opponent faster. Russians have plans on Shmidtove area, because in case of success they will receive good start positiosn to jump on Posad-Pokrovske - Shevchenkove section, pumping this area with troops and repeating own offensive on Mykolaiv. 

Exactly on this part of own defense Russians in last several days moved almost all own reserves, concentrated recently on left bank - 2 BTGs of 4th military base (occupied Abkhazia),  BTG of 429th MRR + combined tactical group of 42nd MRD (moved from Zaporizhzhia oblast), about 5 BTGs of 98th VDV division (moved from Luhansk oblast). Likely 1-2 BTGs of unknown units still in reserve on left bank. Except this Russians have been reinforcing own strike capabilities, moving here 3 tactical groups of MLRS in addition to 4 tactical groups of 944th SP-artillery regiment of 20th MRD of 8th CAA and 227th artillery brigade of 49th CAA

Russian AD in this area also was reinforced - SAM battalion of S-300V and SAM battery of S-300VM were deployed in addition to SAM battalion (Buk M2) of 90th AD brigade of 49th CAA and SAM batteries of 1096th AD regiment (Osa-AKM) of 22nd Army Corps (Black Sea Fleet) and 358th AD regiment (TOR-M2) of 20th MRD

 Russians also conducted many engineer works along the roads and on positions. For this, additionally to sapper units of brigade/divisional level Russian comamnd moved here there tactical groups of 32nd engineer-sapper regiment of 49th CAA. 

Edited July 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

So RU is primed for a big disaster in Kherson region!  Significant forces there and now they've been feeding even more into my dream kessel.  Yeah, Putler, don't give up an inch of your stolen land!  The more men there the more supplies are needed.  We'll see if my dream comes true.

I suspect UKR will keep pounding on the bridge until it becomes impossible to adequately supply that big Kherson force, which would needs many tons of supplies every day.

[Haiduk]

Reportedly next strike on the Antonivskyi bridge area on left bank of Dnieper. Also strike on Chornobaivka airfield area. Locals write about strike on coastal Skadovsk town near Lazurne, being struck on Sunday.

Photo of big fire "in Kherson oblast", but were exactly unknown

Russian AD works in Chornobaivka area

 

[Haiduk]

Russians place additonal "wooden armor" in weakened zones

[cesmonkey]

In the briefing today, Gen. Millie said no decisions have been made on the flight training of Ukrainian pilots. 

However, there was this from the Air Force:
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/07/20/us-air-force-chief-of-staff-says-officials-considering-training-ukrainian-pilots.html

 

 

Edited July 20, 2022 by cesmonkey