How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

If Iran would supply the "gamechanger" drones, this whole thing could be spin as it's proxy war against the US - even funnier

The Iran news actually caused pain in RU Nats circles because Iran is under sanctions like for years and still outproduced RU in drones! 

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Happy to see this equipment finally arriving in Ukraine. Soon it will be M270 o'clock

I'am concerning M270 is tracked platform with less mobility, than HIMARS. It should be moved on trailers, but this is additional time. Though, they cold conduct own missions in off-road terrain and this can increace their survivability

[Huba]

Just now, Haiduk said:

I'am concerning M270 is tracked platform with less mobility, than HIMARS. It should be moved on trailers, but this is additional time. Though, they cold conduct own missions in off-road terrain and this can increace their survivability

I imagine it will be operating relatively far from the fronline, say 30 -40 kilometers, outside of counterbattery fire range, and fire at targets that are closer to it on the other side. HIMARS is better suited to artillery raids - quickly driving close to line of contact, firing and running away.

[Haiduk]

Minister of Defense Reznicov today claimed the peak of UKR losses was in May. According to him in that month situation was too heavy and Ukrainian forces were lossing about 100 servicemen KIA for a day and 300-400 WIA. He told also, that the same number of losses, which Zelenskyi issued in June, were about May level of losses. 

Edited July 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is really interesting and I agree there has to be a deep underlying cultural issue here as well.  However, Andropov did not pull the trigger, yet Putin did.  

Further, and we covered this before, why now?  Ukraine was not poised for entry into either the EU or NATO.  A NATO application, if it happened at all, would have taken a decade and likely would have been slow rolled for the exact reasons we are seeing here - "You know fellas, letting Ukraine into NATO is going to cause problems with our gas:.  Where is the crisis?  If it was in the collective heads of the elites who actually run things, what was it?  Any other options "for what?"  What was the forcing function?

I mean if this was the Baltics back in 2002, it would make total sense but Ukraine in 2022 was not poised to do anything as far as I can tell...so why throw the red dice?

I think Putin's been pulling the trigger for a long time in line with a fairly traditional KGB methodology. He attacked when he believed he was strong enough to do so and subverted/suborned when he could not or if that approach seemed to be more efficient. As to why now...I think it's pretty clear at this point that a state that is afraid to engage in a general mobilization during a big and so far popular shooting war is a state that doesn't think it's very securely holding the reins of power. Russia's panic over the various color revolutions on its periphery  also points in the same direction.

So, why now? Because they thought they could and in their paranoia they thought they didn't have much choice.

[Blazing 88's]

27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh man, it has been years since I have had real pierogi...was in Poland.

 Hunky Bill's Perogie Maker

Seriously though, nothing like my grand ma's homemade pierogi. God rest her soul.

Sorry, back to the important news.

[Artkin]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Not sold.

Thank you for the in depth analysis. I didn't dive THAT deep into it. 

I thought the EU had stopped receiving imports from Russia entirely, gas included. 

For sure the loss of 900M a day is a lot and probably unexpected for the Russians. This number without a doubt goes up and down as the days pass. For the past month or so we have seen an operational pause. The loss of equipment has slowed during this time. So at any point things can change with that figure. 

The 11% GDP hit is probably because Russia stopped exporting. But I thought China was buying their resources now? 

For sure this situation will get worse as the years pass by. 11% will turn into much more. AFAIK production has started to come to a halt. 

Though I do wonder if Luhansk and Donetsk were accounted for. They are huge areas (Though destroyed), and have a very large amount of people. These aren't Eastern farmers without internet access either. They will be valuable in the long run if Russia manages to retain control of the territories it currently holds. 

I've been much more interested in the combat side of things rather than the economic. Just stating my thoughts. I dont think the war was started for the profit of resource gain. But I think it was a factor influencing their decision to invade. 

[billbindc]

 

Parking garages a bad place to put an ammo dump you say? Well, the Russian Army has a solution!

[FancyCat]

It takes a lot of time to plan a war, much less a conquest and annexation of a country. I still believe factors like Trump's 2nd term and the prospect of a divided West and NATO meant the time was right, alongside all the other factors mentioned before. Also notable, COVID damaged the worldwide economy and has made economic warfare and pressure extremely potent. We should probably not underestimate the effect of a worldwide pandemic, with morality facing him, one that differs much more than a assassination, and probably quite easier to get him than the latter. His actions with the stupidly long meeting tables attest to that.

Edited July 15, 2022 by FancyCat

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Why does it matter at all Capt?  Who cares what the Russians think.  Well until one can figure it out, this war remains largely unnegotiable in any arena but violence and that is a dark equation that is getting dimmer by the day.

There's two different concepts here.  The first is why Russia started this war, the second is why Russia continues to fight this war.  At the moment we need to understand the second one more than the first because that is relevant to ending the war.

As for why Putin decided to fight this fight now, I've made several speculations about this since the start.  Including 2 days before the attacks started (i.e. when it was pretty clear the war was going to happen, but no shooting started).

1. Wars are often used by governments to distract their, even in democracies but especially in autocracies.  It is pretty clear that Russia's economy was going downhill a lot more than official Russian numbers suggested, and they suggested it.  Cumulative impact of corruption, ineffective governance, and 2014/2015 sanctions were having a decidedly negative effect.  Putin got a nice popularity boost for Crimea so he might have thought a successful war was just what he needed to get people to overlook their growing problems.
2. Coups happen in Russia when things get onto the wrong track domestically.  It could be that things were going in such a bad direction that he heard whispers that people were actively maneuvering to oust him.  We're pretty sure there was an attempt in 2014, which means that worsening conditions might prompt another attempt to depose him.
3. Putin is not just in power for the money, babes, and lines of coke.  He really does care about Russia's perceived place in the world within a narrow paradigm of macho power.  Power, fear, etc. is what he really cares about, not things like arts, culture, advances in science, expansion of the middle class, or any of the things that he should care about. 
4. Since the Soviet Union was more powerful than the Russian Federation, to "restore" Russia's greatness he wanted to restore the Soviet Union.  Russia has always been obsessed with territory, so territory is key to securing that ambition.  Efforts to suck in the former Soviet states through corruption and/or genuine mutual interests (the attempt at a trading block to combat the EU) were the preferred tools, with violence (assassinations, coups, and war) being used judiciously when necessary.  Hence 2014 war against Ukraine.
5. A big part of the challenge of restoring the Soviet Union is that NATO exists and many former Soviet bloc countries are protected by it.  A separate aspect is that the perception of Russia's power will always be compared against NATO.  The more he could do to weaken NATO, the better chance of grabbing back some old Soviet territory AND make Russia look more powerful vs. the main competition.
6. Putin's old and getting older.  It seems pretty clear that he was given a diagnosis of a serious illness probably within the last 2 years.  Cancer is the lead suspect, but it could be something else.  If he's going to be able to do something he's got to do it before he's physically too weak.

Swirl all of this around and you can see that Putin felt Russia was running out of time.

Now, as for why Putin is still fighting this war... that's far easier to pin down.  Simply put, he has to keep the war going until he has a "victory" good enough to sell to the Russian people and competing power centers.  Stopping short of that almost certainly means he gets deposed from power.  Likely dead.  Which means he's better off continuing to roll the dice on the war than he'd be if he did the sensible thing and ended it before having a "victory".

This should clarify how to end the war -> ensure Russia's military collapses.  There is no other option for Ukraine or the West.

Steve

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think Putin's been pulling the trigger for a long time in line with a fairly traditional KGB methodology. He attacked when he believed he was strong enough to do so and subverted/suborned when he could not or if that approach seemed to be more efficient. As to why now...I think it's pretty clear at this point that a state that is afraid to engage in a general mobilization during a big and so far popular shooting war is a state that doesn't think it's very securely holding the reins of power. Russia's panic over the various color revolutions on its periphery  also points in the same direction.

So, why now? Because they thought they could and in their paranoia they thought they didn't have much choice.

None of this is good news for what likely happens next.  If this is a manufactured crisis in the heads of the Russian leadership built on paranoia - and there is evidence this is true- how this ends gets a lot dicier; paranoid people do not negotiate with anyone but themselves and their own paranoia.  

This means that the foundations of this war are objectively irrational, or at least very relatively rational on the Russian side.  This is akin to a King seeing a blackbird pooping in the pool and taking it as an omen to wage war.

There is only one end state to this and one one way to get there under these circumstances ; a war to the end of that king, and a strategy of annihilation to do it.

[Panserjeger]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Steel rain time!

 

Apparently the M270s are a part of a joint deal between Norway and UK. In the 90´s Norway acquired 20 MLRS M270, but after we joined the ban on cluster munitions in 2005 they have been in storage. We can´t send them directly to Ukraine because the Norwegian ones needs an upgrade to be usable, so instead UK will donate M270s to Ukraine and Norway will replace them. The first shipment will be 3 units, but there might be more later. 

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/norge-og-storbritannia-gir-langtrekkende-rakettartilleri-til-ukraina/id2921395/

[keas66]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Parking garages a bad place to put an ammo dump you say? Well, the Russian Army has a solution!

 

For some reason this revived some  really old cold war era   comic book memories

The Russians are reminding me and more of the  Stereotyped Bad guys form the 2000AD series 'Invasion"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion!_(2000_AD)

Edited July 15, 2022 by keas66

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

None of this is good news for what likely happens next.  If this is a manufactured crisis in the heads of the Russian leadership built on paranoia - and there is evidence this is true- how this ends gets a lot dicier; paranoid people do not negotiate with anyone but themselves and their own paranoia.  

This means that the foundations of this war are objectively irrational, or at least very relatively rational on the Russian side.  This is akin to a King seeing a blackbird pooping in the pool and taking it as an omen to wage war.

There is only one end state to this and one one way to get there under these circumstances ; a war to the end of that king, and a strategy of annihilation to do it.

Yes. This was started because Putin saw the situation as existential to the Russian state and as Steve notes above, now for Putin personally, it is as well. He can't lose and expect to survive. Patrushev and the inner circle might not either. And because of their blinkered mindset, it's an existential fight for Ukraine and NATO too. Even if there is a peace treaty tomorrow, this will remain unfinished business until the Russian side has been completely defeated. 

Happy Friday? 

Edited July 15, 2022 by billbindc

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

Apparently the M270s are a part of a joint deal between Norway and UK. In the 90´s Norway acquired 20 MLRS M270, but after we joined the ban on cluster munitions in 2005 they have been in storage. We can´t send them directly to Ukraine because the Norwegian ones needs an upgrade to be usable, so instead UK will donate M270s to Ukraine and Norway will replace them. The first shipment will be 3 units, but there might be more later. 

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/norge-og-storbritannia-gir-langtrekkende-rakettartilleri-til-ukraina/id2921395/

I'm not sure if US still has M26 family rockets in store? I know they started dismantling them a few years ago, but with AFAIR 700K rockets there is probably a lot still left. UK probably has some too. Could be super useful in the war Ukraine is fighting - on the other hand, there would be a huge outcry about it, and logistically it would be harder to sustain.

Poland plans to buy a huge number of HIMARS in the future, and the idea is to establish local rocket production to go with them - if that happens, DPICM will for sure be back on the table, as well as AT mines.

It looks like RU advantage in artillery is becoming a thing of the past really quick. To add to all those MLRS and new Krabs, there's more and more rumors about Swedish Archers being donated to Ukraine too. I wonder if at this point, sending a battalion worth of any type of heavy guns isn't the most viable marketing strategy for any arms manufacturer out there...

Edited July 15, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

It takes a lot of time to plan a war, much less a conquest and annexation of a country. I still believe factors like Trump's 2nd term and the prospect of a divided West and NATO meant the time was right, alongside all the other factors mentioned before. Also notable, COVID damaged the worldwide economy and has made economic warfare and pressure extremely potent. We should probably not underestimate the effect of a worldwide pandemic, with morality facing him, one that differs much more than a assassination, and probably quite easier to get him than the latter. His actions with the stupidly long meeting tables attest to that.

The war was inevitable, but the timing was likely due to a few specific conditions.  It could be that Putin's health was the primary factor, but if that wasn't then the geopolitical shift from Trump to Biden might have been.  However, I'm not convinced it's for the reasons the political right ("Biden is weak, Trump is strong!") or the political left ("Biden is strong. Trump is weak!") arguments.

It appears Putin calculated around 2019 that there was really no longer much hope of getting anywhere with Ukraine through "other means".  2020 probably cemented that view.  War planning seems to have started in early 2021.  During the summer of 2021 it looks like Putin gave "other means" one more shot by attempting to get Minsk 2 going again.  If he got something good from that, war might have been put off for the near term.  However, he got absolutely nowhere with that so it went from planning to execution starting in the late summer of 2021 and war in February 2022.

Based on KGB mindset, Putin did not want to start the war until he was sure who would be the US President for it and immediately after.  Plans could be tailored to suit the conditions better with that knowledge then to have the variables shifted after the war took place.  So while I think the war was inevitable no matter who became President, the exact form it took might have been different had Trump been reelected.  In what way different?  I don't know, but the two Presidents are very unlike each other so it stands to reason that Putin would have tailored things to some extent.

Steve

[FancyCat]

It's interesting, Russia has shown no inclination to even feign de-escalation. Bigger targets, bigger, more civilian targets, the officers house was about to host a concert, whatever the argument between de-escalation vs bombing civilian targets like universities, concert halls, etc vs trying to at least targeting military targets. You would think that Russia would dial it down while upping the offensive.

I wonder if the lull in the offensive and artillery ammo shortage meant Russia is simply pursuing missiles to retain some pressure on Ukraine. Nasa FIRMS has been quieter for a few days no?

[Battlefront.com]

Oh, one other element about "why now" I forgot to mention.  And it is an important one...  Belarus and Kazakhstan.   Not only was Putin sensing that things were getting tougher to keep control over within Russia, some of the biggest parts of restoring the Soviet Union were becoming more unstable.  Especially Belarus.  Putin most likely sensed that the longer he waited to "settle the Ukrainian question" the more likely some distraction would crop up and create the sort of uncertainty that KGB minds don't like.

Steve

[womble]

32 minutes ago, keas66 said:

The Russians are reminding me and more of the  Stereotyped Bad guys form the 2000AD series 'Invasion"

 

I've been thinking about the Volgs a bit lately too. My incomplete and woolly recollections have the ABC Warriors continuing the fight against them in an irradiated/gassed/diseased Europe... Let's hope Hammerstein and friends don't become the future of warfare. I think the same timeline leached into Dredd, as well.

[Grigb]

Girki regarding today's lack of decision during Emergency meeting of the State Duma on July 15, 2022

Quote

Today, the Russian Federation has sailed past another "reference point" on its way to the Turmoil. I emphasize - I did not "take a step", but "sail" [without taking any action], because even in order to go to defeat in the war, you need to make some efforts, and our incompetent, weak-willed, dull-thieving bureaucracy, apparently deeply disappointed by the failure of "SMO", decided to "sail on flow with maximum economy of effort."
This is how I assess the complete absence of any serious decisions during the specially assembled State Meeting. No decision is possible, since elderly hedonists are not only unable to decide on anything, but also categorically do not want to.
I assumed that "a mountain can give birth to a mouse." But the mountain did not even "push" and, therefore, did not "give birth" to anything at all. So, - a slight sound and a weak foul-smell...

 

[Harmon Rabb]

News from Estonia, but please lets not get sidetracked and talk about firearm laws in the United States again.

Edited July 15, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[hcrof]

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Girki regarding today's lack of decision during Emergency meeting of the State Duma on July 15, 2022

 

This was the much hyped extraordinary session right? And they decided nothing?

How much ability does the Duma have to set or change the agenda? Some people say they just rubber stamp what the Kremlin says but it would be strange in this case for the Kremlin to organise this session for no reason!

[billbindc]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, one other element about "why now" I forgot to mention.  And it is an important one...  Belarus and Kazakhstan.   Not only was Putin sensing that things were getting tougher to keep control over within Russia, some of the biggest parts of restoring the Soviet Union were becoming more unstable.  Especially Belarus.  Putin most likely sensed that the longer he waited to "settle the Ukrainian question" the more likely some distraction would crop up and create the sort of uncertainty that KGB minds don't like.

Steve

My understanding is that the US gov't was aware of Russian invasion plans at the latest in April of 2021.

[Huba]

Russian rockets hitting Dnipro. Unclear what the target was at this point, but overall it more and more looks like terror bombing...

 

[Haiduk]

Interview of UKR military journalist Yuriy Butusov with senior sergeant Yuriy Petroshchuk - sergeant-mayor of 1st mech.battalion of 24th mech.brigade abouth their breakthrough from encirclement in Zolote and Hirske

Alas, w/o English subtitles, so I will write briefly main things of his story 

- Before the war began, 24th mech.brigade already 9 months was at frontline. Further 4 months more of intensive warfare without rotation.

- 1st mech.battalion defended the line Orikhove - Hirske - Zolote (this is about 9 km) 

- intensive warfare began since 6th of March

- LPR and Russians used against UKR forces almost all types of weapon, artillery and air strikes can't be counted. Russians poured so much amonuts of artillery and MLRS shells on their positions each day, so he can say it could be possible one military train of ammunition daily. But despite this UKR troops held hard, so "UKR infantry is toughest infantry in the world"

- Main secret of this stedfast defense - trained young officers with strong leadership. Sergeants played significant role in this too - they shared own experience and confidense. Battalion commander with call-sign "Irys" is exellent professional, which had time both to comamnd and be present in hotest points, so soldiers and officers always have seen him nearby and this raised trust and cohesion betwwen all chains in battalion. "Irys" personally sat as driver in BMP and evacuated 9 wounded soldiers under fire. For the all time he evacuated more than 30 wounded. He also could "fly" with drone if he wanted to learn more about situation personnally. So he is "universal soldier" and this personal example inspired soldiers, even those, who came later after mobilization and had less combat experience or didn't have it. 

- One company strongpoint was captured by the enemy (probably this about Orikhove area), company commander was killed. "Irys" personally led counter-attack on this strongpoint.

- After enemy pushed off right neighbours of 1st battalion from Toshkivka area on 19th June, the trap began to close. "Irys" and Petroshchuk tried to recon the passage and evacuate 8 wounded, but their jeeps were shelled and destroyed, though they could avoid the death and saved all wounded. 

- On 20th of June enemy cut off last road. The command gave the order to break through with small groups. "Irys" personally developed routes. Breakthrough began on 22nd of June. Petroshchuk was in group in 70 men. All vehiciles and heavy weapon, which can't move was destroyed. Total number of soldiers, which remained in battalion and went for a breakthough - more than 400 men. Some Territorial Defense units (I think, no more than company level) were together with them.  

- Despite on enemy shellings, their battaliosn succussfuly infiltrated through enemy lines with all reamained vehicles and heavy weapon. Petroshchuk told he know only about three missed and several wounded during this breakthrough (though LPR showed about four dozens on captured UKR soldiers in Hirske)

- After breakthrough, on next day, battalion participated in defense of Vovchoyarivka.

- Main features, on Petroshchuk's opinion, which must have good soldiers (and good climate in the unit) - psychical readiness to fight and give own life if need, desire to learn and adopt experience, respect to each other between soldiers and commanders