How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU paper production news.

 

Next: why sandpaper is better for you butt than regular (evil decadent imperialist) TP...

Edited July 13, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

Looks like RU finally started to send secret directive to talk about Peace deal. Khodakovsku [Vostok battalion commander] today.

Quote

The conclusion is that we need [now not] a global victory, but a quick one. A quick end to inconveniences, suffering, the need to endure - and for this we are ready to sacrifice the final result and stop at the intermediate, believing [/accepting] everything that will be told to us from Olympus later. And no! - I do not contradict myself when I write that I will be ready to accept the result of this stage of the military operation, and when they reproach us for being ready to accept intermediate achievements.

I am ready that having exhausted our offensive potential, we will stop at the achieved milestones and will not run to smash the [RU] government (and with it Russia) for [achieving] so little, but [together we] will launch processes that will ensure our victory not only over Ukraine. And yes - it's not fast. Only the active phase can last for a couple of years - but this is the only way to win definitively.

 

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

I think you'll find that almost all activity on this forum is contained in this thread. The forum isn't about CM any more, it's about the Russo-Ukraine war.

Then that should tell you something, yes?  I mean, nobody is forcing the forum members to NOT talk about CM, right?  Nobody is forcing the forum members to ONLY talk about the most important war since WW2, right?

Steve

[hcrof]

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Looks like RU finally started to send secret directive to talk about Peace deal. Khodakovsku [Vostok battalion commander] today.

 

If I understand this right, he thinks that the RU government will push for a peace deal based on the current territory occupied by Russia? 

If so, he is in for a rude suprise because the Ukrainian people will never accept that any time soon. I imagine the bare minimum is the return of the southern coast before UKR is willing to discuss anything. (Obviously UKR would rather pre-2014 borders but the reality will be somewhere in between unless RU really does implode)

Edited July 13, 2022 by hcrof

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

As I understood from video the target of the raid was high ranking police officer (guy in civilian clothes with balaclava). RU offered him a job in RU police and planned to execute him if he would reject the offer.

Not a good sign for Russian OPSEC if Ukraine knew about this at a high enough level to dispatch a SF team.  Also not good that Ukraine was able to pull it off.  There couldn't have been much notice.

Steve

[Grigb]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's not quite what I mean.  What I'm asking about is if the mil bloggers have gone any deeper into the fiasco other than blaming the top levels.  Because the reality is if every single General was gotten rid of and replaced by the best of the best Majors and Colonels, the Russian Army would still fight like crap because it is inherently based on outdated doctrine, horrible training standards, and a complete lack of professionalism from top to bottom.

The fact that the entire Russian military industrial complex is utterly broken is pretty tough pill to swallow, as we Yanks say.  Have any of the mil bloggers really looked hard for what went wrong or only sticking with the obvious aspects?

Steve

Nope. Incompetent officers and RU gov are to blame for everything. The point is if you say that whole thing (not just current set of people) is utterly broken then you basically admit that:

• RU values (it was built according to) are bad
• Western values are right and superior

And the next thing that will happen to you is crucifixion for being traitorous liberal. So, digging deep is out of the question. There are exceptions though - that Rostislav Mokrenko does dig deep and compares everything to western experience. So, his conclusions do point in that direction, but he is not well known to the general public. And for the above reason he will never be popular among RU Nats. 

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Is the oil/ fuel situation an actual issue either in France or Germany? It's not easy to diversify from pipeline gas, that's understandable, but I thought oil coming via ship is less of a problem? In Poland there's no talk about any limitations on fuels at all (apart from prices being ridiculous). Are there not enough port facilities? I recall our PM said Poland could move some oil from our terminal to Germany if needed...

From what I have read, France is much less bothered about oil/gas because we are much less dependent on Russia than Germany. We also have a fairly large electrical independence thanks to our nuclear power plants, but the problem is that the difficult situation with gasoline also has an impact on the price of electricity despite the nuclear power plants. Gasoline prices have risen a lot but for such a difficult global situation I think that's fine.

To give an example, people complain that because of the price of gas they will go to a restaurant a little less during the holidays because the journey by car is more expensive. Even comparing with the COVID, we can still go to the restaurant when during the crisis, we could no longer do so.  So when we see Ukraine which is at war or Russia which is struggling economically and productively, I find that we are not to be pitied at all. Afterwards, as always, as soon as people here are asked to lower the temperature by one degree or to make a restaurant less, it's immediately the end of the world.

In the meantime, we still have this chance to live normally and to be able to go to a restaurant. It's true that the budget is also a little tighter and we're doing fewer things, but we're far from a REAL crisis for me.

It remains to be seen how this will fare for the winter, but from what I've read people won't be asked to take cold showers or wash up only once a week, which for me would be really the beginning of a difficult situation.

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Unbleached office paper produced by Russian manufacturers is useful for human eyes, unlike bleached, said Oleg Bocharov, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation.

Finally!  Russia has made a technological breakthrough in paper design, based on long researched scientific study of eye fatigue.  My god, who knew how bad the problem was and yet how easy it was to fix.  Three cheers for Russian industry!

(and that, folks, is how sarcasm is done!  mic drop!)

Steve

[Grey_Fox]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Then that should tell you something, yes?  I mean, nobody is forcing the forum members to NOT talk about CM, right?  Nobody is forcing the forum members to ONLY talk about the most important war since WW2, right?

Steve

I'm not going to go and get into an argument about which war is the "best", but I would question that assertion. Is it the biggest conflict so far in the Wars of the Soviet Successors? Sure. Is it the most important war since WW2? Who knows?

You're right that nobody is forcing anybody to talk about this conflict. The problem is that very few are talking about your products on this forum.

Fact is that this obsession with the war is unhealthy.

51 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I think we had that discussion and shouldn't rekindle it.

I agree, we did have that discussion already, and yet first somebody else and then you went and decided to keep it going.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Grey_Fox

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, Grey_Fox said:

I'm not going to go and get into an argument about which war is the "best", but I would question that assertion. Is it the biggest conflict so far in the Wars of the Soviet Successors? Sure. Is it the most important war since WW2? Who knows?

Speaking as a historian before I was a game designer, and a historian since, I can safely say this is the most important war since WW2.

Just now, Grey_Fox said:

You're right that nobody is forcing anybody to talk about this conflict. The problem is that very few are talking about your products on this forum.

I can't force people to talk about our games either.  So it is what it is.  I don't really know what you expect me to do about it.  Shut down this thread, ban people from talking about the war, and then hope that everybody goes back to talking about the games instead of what they obviously really want to talk about?

Steve

[Grigb]

18 minutes ago, hcrof said:

If I understand this right, he thinks that the RU government will push for a peace deal based on the current territory occupied by Russia? 

The guy does not think much. He is more like a talking head for RU officials. So, what he says is what RU gov thinks. He is preparing ordinary LDNR people for the possibility of a peace deal without UKR defeat. 

 

18 minutes ago, hcrof said:

If so, he is in for a rude suprise because the Ukrainian people will never accept that any time soon. I imagine the bare minimum is the return of the southern coast before UKR is willing to discuss anything. (Obviously UKR would rather pre-2014 borders but the reality will be somewhere in between unless RU really does implode)

We are talking about men who lost any touch with reality. From RU talks I think they believe a) UKR army on the verge of collapse b) Europe on the verge of gas capitulation. 

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Grey_Fox said:

I think you'll find that almost all activity on this forum is contained in this thread. The forum isn't about CM any more, it's about the Russo-Ukraine war.

War has four main components: a certainty, communication, negotiation, and sacrifice.  This is what happens when sacrifice hits the wall of "Gen Me".

 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

The guy does not think much. He is more like a talking head for RU officials. So, what he says is what RU gov thinks. He is preparing ordinary LDNR people for the possibility of a peace deal without UKR defeat. 

 

We are talking about men who lost any touch with reality. From RU talks I think they believe a) UKR army on the verge of collapse b) Europe on the verge of gas capitulation. 

 

There are useful/ paid idiots who would like that very much. I'm under impression that since battle of Lysychansk ended, the calls for peace have become noticeably more numerous. Here's another "gem" like this, explaining in detail why West should push Ukraine to make peace, without any proposal how this peace could reasonably look like. Originaly pubilshed in Foreign Policy btw:

https://cis.mit.edu/publications/analysis-opinion/2022/ukraine’s-implausible-theories-victory

 

@Taranis Thanks for the report  In Poland fuel prices are up about 50% since January, and that's after gov temporary cut some taxes...

[Grey_Fox]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

War has four main components: a certainty, communication, negotiation, and sacrifice.  This is what happens when sacrifice hits the wall of "Gen Me".

 

Your sacrifice for Ukraine is that you're discussing the conflict here?

I actually want to respect you because of the outstanding work you put in on CM Cold War, but that's ridiculous.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Grey_Fox

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Speaking as a historian before I was a game designer, and a historian since, I can safely say this is the most important war since WW2.

I can't force people to talk about our games either.  So it is what it is.  I don't really know what you expect me to do about it.  Shut down this thread, ban people from talking about the war, and then hope that everybody goes back to talking about the games instead of what they obviously really want to talk about?

Steve

Just launch a new module and watch this thread die.

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

Your sacrifice for Ukraine is that you're discussing the conflict here?

I actually want to respect you because of the outstanding work you put in on CM Cold War, but that's ridiculous.

Look, just try to pump some life into the other threads on this forum or start your own. I doubt you have something interesting to post, but give it a go.

[akd]

5 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

Your sacrifice for Ukraine is that you're discussing the conflict here?

I actually want to respect you because of the outstanding work you put in on CM Cold War, but that's ridiculous.

You are the one acting aggrieved and as if you've had something stolen from you, not The Capt.

[Huba]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I can't force people to talk about our games either.  So it is what it is.  I don't really know what you expect me to do about it.  Shut down this thread, ban people from talking about the war, and then hope that everybody goes back to talking about the games instead of what they obviously really want to talk about?

Steve

And to add to that, this thread actually made at least a few people (me included) take interest in the game and purchase it. I promise to b***h about the bugs on the forum when I find time to play it some more, promise

And back to the topic, reportedly North Korea recognized DPR as a sovereign state. That's one great alliance Putin is building...

 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Huba

[Splinty]

13 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

Your sacrifice for Ukraine is that you're discussing the conflict here?

I actually want to respect you because of the outstanding work you put in on CM Cold War, but that's ridiculous.

Do you actually have a point that's germane to this thread?

[Grigb]

20 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

You're right that nobody is forcing anybody to talk about this conflict. The problem is that very few are talking about your products on this forum.

Fact is that this obsession with the war is unhealthy.

I am not talking about CMCW (I do believe it is best CM game so far) because of an obvious lack of time. As soon as war is over, I will go to that subforum.

And my "obsession" with war stems from the fact that I wanted to leave my past in the past. But now my past is threatening my quiet European life and everything I stand for.  I cannot stop them with bullets but at least I will make their propaganda less successful, at least here. 

[Butschi]

29 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

I agree, we did have that discussion already, and yet first somebody else and then you went and decided to keep it going.

I know you didn't restart it. I also didn't want to continue the discussion, just maybe give you a possible explanation why people currently prefer this thread. (And thus maybe end this discussion. Didn't work. Oh well.)

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

I think we had that discussion and shouldn't rekindle it. Let me just say this: Please accept that some of us are, I think, more concerned with the current real war than with a computer wargame. If BFC is ok with us discussing this here, then why shouldn't we and its not like this was a forum for licorice lovers or something. For me it's a natural place for this topic and the thread greatly helps me in understanding what is going on - and frankly also to cope with the situation. Btw. it also improves my broader understanding of CM.

And when the war ends we can go back to endless arguments about how to simulate it all with more data than we possibly know what to do with.

Edited July 13, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I am not talking about CMCW (I do believe it is best CM game so far) because of an obvious lack of time. As soon as war is over, I will go to that subforum.

And my "obsession" with war stems from the fact that I wanted to leave my past in the past. But now my past is threatening my quiet European life and everything I stand for.  I cannot stop them with bullets but at least I will make their propaganda less successful, at least here. 

And we appreciate it, a LOT!

[dan/california]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not a good sign for Russian OPSEC if Ukraine knew about this at a high enough level to dispatch a SF team.  Also not good that Ukraine was able to pull it off.  There couldn't have been much notice.

Steve

Has there been a single GOOD sign for Russian OPSEC at any point in this war? They either don't understand the concept, or just can't be bothered.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Grey_Fox said:

Your sacrifice for Ukraine is that you're discussing the conflict here?

I actually want to respect you because of the outstanding work you put in on CM Cold War, but that's ridiculous.

It is ridiculous that anyone would prioritize a PC wargame over the events we are seeing unfold on the ground in Ukraine.  These events have global impact - we have seen this already, and it is just the start, and merit staying informed about as much as possible.  Why?  Because if you live in a democracy in the western world, at some point you will be asked to use the phenomenal power of your vote to influence this war and it is your responsibility to understand what that means...or at least it should be.

The lack of sacrifice I am referring to is on anyone who is not willing to put aside hobbies and free time and actually devote that time to staying informed about this war as much as they are able.  Everyone on this thread is willing to put that work in, and yes, sacrifice time, in many cases money, and it at least one case volunteer for military service. These are very small sacrifices compared to what the average Ukrainian is going through (Haiduk's dedication and ability to keep us informed while his country is being torn apart is frankly humbling) but everyone here is at least willing to do that much, along with personal donations etc.  

Based on your posts, you are not even willing to sacrifice a distraction from a wargaming hobby.  Now, I do not know your personal circumstances - perhaps you are a humanitarian aid worker who has to deal with the cost of this war on a daily basis, and just want to come here to get away from it all.  I get that, but for the rest of us here this is where we go to put the time in and do our small part.

I appreciate the shout out for CMCW, we had a lot of fun doing that title and have future plans - trust me.  However, right now I would prefer you respect what is going on here as something more than a bunch of "war-porn voyeurism"; it is a communities' efforts to understand what is going on and support each other while it happens.  We did the same after 9/11, and Iraq '03, and Afghanistan, and the Crimea...and now the Russo Ukrainian War.  CM will be there after this war is over, it has survived a lot in the last 20 years, but for now this is bigger than my hobby.  If it is not based on your personal circumstances, hey we get that, however, there is no need to come here and make trouble for those that are just trying to sort through the mountains of information (good, bad, and ugly) and make sense of it.

Edited July 13, 2022 by The_Capt