How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

On 7/7/2022 at 3:51 PM, Grey_Fox said:

I think that's unfair. Many of us are just people who want to give you money for content. 1000+ page abominations like this thread don't do anything for me.

It would be nice if this forum could go back to being about Combat Mission instead of just sperging about an ongoing war. Some of us are dealing with the human consequences of it right now - there are currently 46 Ukrainian refugees living a couple of hundred meters away from my family home - doctors, lawyers, dentists, logistics managers, business people etc who have become refugees whom we interact with on a daily basis.

 

I think you are being unfair to this THREAD. This a thread about the war in Ukraine, not perceived upgrades to the CM line. Believe it or not, there are actually threads in other sections of the Battlefront forum where you are more than welcome to post this type of thread instead of attempting to hijack this thread.

[paxromana]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

Stanley Baldwin

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_bomber_will_always_get_through

Citing Douhet's principles ...

[paxromana]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russians involved three raiway troops brigades in Ukraine. They can relatively quickly restore railways - HIMARS or Tochka-U can wipe out one or two sections of rails. This is nothing - just wasting of missiles. 

Sure, for track ... hit the switching yards which is what the Allies were doing by late 1944. These are bigger, so require more missiles, but they are much mor complex and, therefore, difficult to bring back into service in a reasonable time frame (by 1945 the Germans were having to tip perfectly good RR cars off the tracks so they could re-order train consists to what was needed ... kiss of death) ...

And Bridge footings ... as I understand it (and I am sure there are Civil Engineers here who will correct me in the likelihood I have it half arsed!) blowig up the bridge footings (the bits the span rests on on either side of the river/obstacle) also make it much harder to repair. Simply blowing the span can at least sometimes be repaired fairly quickly ... blowing the footings, AIUI, means starting from scratch.

And RR Locomotive maintenance works ... big, well known targets, and easy(ish) to put out of commission as at least some of them will be close to ever expanding UA atillery/HIMARS ranges.

[Huba]

41 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Sure, for track ... hit the switching yards which is what the Allies were doing by late 1944. These are bigger, so require more missiles, but they are much mor complex and, therefore, difficult to bring back into service in a reasonable time frame (by 1945 the Germans were having to tip perfectly good RR cars off the tracks so they could re-order train consists to what was needed ... kiss of death) ...

And Bridge footings ... as I understand it (and I am sure there are Civil Engineers here who will correct me in the likelihood I have it half arsed!) blowig up the bridge footings (the bits the span rests on on either side of the river/obstacle) also make it much harder to repair. Simply blowing the span can at least sometimes be repaired fairly quickly ... blowing the footings, AIUI, means starting from scratch.

And RR Locomotive maintenance works ... big, well known targets, and easy(ish) to put out of commission as at least some of them will be close to ever expanding UA atillery/HIMARS ranges.

The one issue with this is that UA would't be attacking the RU railroad system in it's entirety, but only a small part of it. Trains in general are set up, loaded, maintained etc. out of UA reach, no point even bothering with all that. The loaded train moves to the railhead, is unloaded/ loaded and gets back to the safe rear. Even ATACMS with 300km reach won't change that dynamic. 

I think that we can agree that at the moment blowing up already stockpiled materiel is probably the best use of UA missiles, results are spectacular for sure. At some point RU will start either dispersing the storage ( which I don't believe will help much, but who knows), or ultimately move the dumps out of range. Blowing some bridges or switching yards, or infrastructure like cranes might convince them to do it faster, attacking the trains themselves even more so if that can be arranged ( already one was hit in Tokmak a while ago). It isn't a goal in itself though, as general paralysis of RU railway system is not possible. The goal is to force them to move the railheads out of GMLRS range. Then RU either figures out how to sustain it's units from 100km away, or just starves to death. If they figure it out, perhaps some even longer range PGMs will come into play to piss on their parade again... 

 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Huba

[Offshoot]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Dunno what this one is all about.  The title says Ukraine special forces went into occupied Kherson and liberated 5 prisoners.  I think this is a poor translation of what the video is.  In English we say "take 5 prisoners" when we capture guys, we say "liberate" when they are friendly.  I've seen this a few times before so it is at least consistent

Looks like they raided a house and whisked away some guys and booty.  But why did they go after these guys in particular?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vxi1mz/our_fighters_entered_the_temporarily_occupied/

Steve

The censor.net article might expand on the story. Unfortunately I can't access censor.net for some reason.

And a news item about the raid (but no subtitles). The google translated title says "Raid on the occupied territory: HUR soldiers killed Russian prison guards and rescued prisoners". No idea why these particular prisoners though.

 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Offshoot

[cesmonkey]

Another batch of videos on the training of Ukrainian soldiers in the UK.  This time, the new recruits:
 

 

[Sojourner]

2 hours ago, Offshoot said:

The censor.net article might expand on the story.

Five Ukrainians were released from captivity during a special operation in the Kherson region. One of them has a serious wound, - KSHPPV Source: https://censor.net/ua/n3353627

GUR MO conducted a special operation in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region and freed 5 Ukrainians from captivity.

As Censor.NET informs, this was reported to the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

"During the special operation carried out by the special unit of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region, five citizens of Ukraine who were held captive by the Russian occupiers were released," the message reads.

It is noted that among them is a serviceman of the Armed Forces, a former police officer and three civilians. One of the released has a serious battle wound. The HUR emphasized that currently all those released are under the care of the Ukrainian authorities and are receiving appropriate treatment. Source: https://censor.net/ua/n3353627

[Grigb]

As I understood from video the target of the raid was high ranking police officer (guy in civilian clothes with balaclava). RU offered him a job in RU police and planned to execute him if he would reject the offer.

[Grigb]

Small Girkin rant

• At night RU air defense base was hit
• RU command moves missiles vehicles without any maskirovka making them easier to track by western space-based intelligence

Quote

At night, the UKR destroyed an air defense base near Lugansk.

And in the internet there are unique shots of how in broad daylight, without the slightest disguise, an echelon with the equipment of the RK "Tochka-U" is moving in the Tula region in the south direction.
I understand that masking tanks and infantry fighting vehicles - if there are absolutely no covers and even mask nets at the disposal of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation - is not so necessary in the end. But missile systems (even outdated, but combat-ready) are the primary target for the enemy. And - once taking them "under control" [putting them on a check list to do something later] by means of space intelligence - "dear Western partners" are unlikely to be able to "lose" them further. Therefore, one should not be surprised if (or rather, when) the newly formed divisions of "Tochkas" will be destroyed by the enemy's longer-range "HIMARS" at the deployment stage or soon after.

 

[Aragorn2002]

7 hours ago, danfrodo said:

From a PR (or propaganda, if you prefer) perspective, I wonder if the correct framing of fuel prices is to push the blame on Putin. 

something like this:  "Putin's war and his choices are causing shortages which have increased prices.  Putin is using his fuel deals w EU to extort all of europe.  And if we ever give him this power again, he'll do it again, so we are taking the hard step of removing ourselves from Putin's extortion racket, which is painful now but will make us safer in the future"

Good point, Dan. Keep the economy/industry going and the old and the sick warm. The rest of us can freeze a little, to remind us that stupidity and greed come at a price.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Taranis]

15 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Good point, Dan. Keep the economy going and the old and the sick warm. The rest of us can freeze a little, to remind us that stupidity and greed come at a price.

And then there is the energy transition which will necessarily be mandatory and necessary at one time or another. Some say there will be no more Russian gas by the end of the year, either from Putolini or from us. Some experts say now would be a good time to make the switch (since the situation is already difficult energetically).

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, Taranis said:

And then there is the energy transition which will necessarily be mandatory and necessary at one time or another. Some say there will be no more Russian gas by the end of the year, either from Putolini or from us. Some experts say now would be a good time to make the switch (since the situation is already difficult energetically).

Indeed. If the environment issue really is as grave as we're told  to believe, this might be a blessing in disguise.

Besides, there's money enough in the West. There always is when push comes to shove. Just pay the bloody bills and help those who can't. One holiday or citytrip less every year won't mean the end of us.

[Taranis]

8 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Indeed. If the environment issue really is as grave as we're told  to believe, this might be a blessing in disguise.

Besides, there's money enough in the West. There always is when push comes to shove. Just pay the bloody bills and help those who can't. One holiday or citytrip less every year won't mean the end of us.

I also heard that Germany could consider the deployment of telework in a way equivalent to the COVID crisis in order to drastically reduce its consumption of hydrocarbons etc. I really think that we have plenty of means to pass all these tests and even get out of it, we just have to have the will...

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, Taranis said:

I also heard that Germany could consider the deployment of telework in a way equivalent to the COVID crisis in order to drastically reduce its consumption of hydrocarbons etc. I really think that we have plenty of means to pass all these tests and even get out of it, we just have to have the will...

Precisely. Just look at all those lights in empty offices and other buildings at night. Just one example of how we can do better.

[JonS]

7 hours ago, paxromana said:

Citing Douhet's principles ...

No. Not really. For one thing, Douhet didn't really articulate any principles. He was writing fantasy war porn in the early 1920s when airforces were still very nascent and desperately trying to justify their own existence. Baldwin was speaking in parliament a decade later - a decade in which aircraft underwent astonishing development - about a very specific moment. Although Baldwin couldn't have realised it, the  technical superiority bombers enjoyed in the early '30s was very fleeting. After another decade, when the bullets started flying, the obsolescence of his comment quickly became apparent.

But even if Baldwin were citing Douhet ... well, that'd be like crediting Kurosawa for Lasseter's A Bug's Life because it's basically the same story as Seven Samurai. Or sumfink.

But, you know. They were both talking about civilians being bombed, so sure. Same thing

Edited July 13, 2022 by JonS

[Grigb]

Video of RU view on Slavyansk after RU strikes (probably retaliatory for HIMARS)

Quote

View of Slavyansk from Russian positions.

The result of high precision (no), not aimless (no) shooting by Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

The UKR in 2014 had a more modest view of Slavyansk...

[Huba]

Another drone-bomber video, but this time partially filmed from 3rd person perspective:

And an interview with Polish volunteer battlefield medic. Some information about how medical evacuation is organized, as well as comments on medical supplies availability (enough, but barely). In Polish, but google translate works good enough:

https://defence24.pl/kryzys-ukrainski-raport-specjalny-defence24/medyk-na-ukrainskim-froncie-wywiad-z-damianem-duda

Edited July 13, 2022 by Huba

[Grey_Fox]

11 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

I think you are being unfair to this THREAD. This a thread about the war in Ukraine, not perceived upgrades to the CM line. Believe it or not, there are actually threads in other sections of the Battlefront forum where you are more than welcome to post this type of thread instead of attempting to hijack this thread.

I think you'll find that almost all activity on this forum is contained in this thread. The forum isn't about CM any more, it's about the Russo-Ukraine war.

[poesel]

9 hours ago, sburke said:

yep same way they are dealing with water use and drought here. Once you go over a certain usage rate the costs jump.  It doesn't seem to have driven our usage down enough so there is still talk of mandatory rationing.

Same discussion here. Give out a certain base amount of gas (depending on number of people in the household) at cheaper price and anything above at market price.
Still bites the poor more since they tend to live in less insulated houses and need more gas for the same temperature.

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Indeed. If the environment issue really is as grave as we're told  to believe, this might be a blessing in disguise.

Yes. But it is not necessary to believe.

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

I also heard that Germany could consider the deployment of telework in a way equivalent to the COVID crisis in order to drastically reduce its consumption of hydrocarbons etc.

COVID has changed a lot here wrt telework. Before, it was deemed impossible. But when there was no choice, it worked quite well. But now many bosses want to have direct control back, so there is still a bit of fighting going on.

Another option to save oil is to introduce a speed limit on the autobahn, but this is of course impossible, too...

[Taranis]

3 minutes ago, poesel said:

Same discussion here. Give out a certain base amount of gas (depending on number of people in the household) at cheaper price and anything above at market price.
Still bites the poor more since they tend to live in less insulated houses and need more gas for the same temperature.

Yes. But it is not necessary to believe.

COVID has changed a lot here wrt telework. Before, it was deemed impossible. But when there was no choice, it worked quite well. But now many bosses want to have direct control back, so there is still a bit of fighting going on.

Another option to save oil is to introduce a speed limit on the autobahn, but this is of course impossible, too...

The situation about highway limitations and telework is also the same here, in France.

[Huba]

Is the oil/ fuel situation an actual issue either in France or Germany? It's not easy to diversify from pipeline gas, that's understandable, but I thought oil coming via ship is less of a problem? In Poland there's no talk about any limitations on fuels at all (apart from prices being ridiculous). Are there not enough port facilities? I recall our PM said Poland could move some oil from our terminal to Germany if needed...

Edited July 13, 2022 by Huba

[Butschi]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

Is the oil/ fuel situation an actual issue either in France or Germany? It's not easy to diversify from pipeline gas, that's understandable, but I thought oil coming via ship is less of a problem? In Poland there's no talk about any limitations on fuels at all (apart from prices being ridiculous). Are there not enough port facilities? I recall our PM said Poland could move some oil from our terminal to Germany if needed...

For fuel, availability doesn't seem to be a problem but prices have skyrocketed - though still lower than in, e.g. the Netherlands.

[akd]

16 hours ago, sburke said:

got it.  We still have these two we are looking for confirmation on that strike on the HQ 20th GDs MRD

Lt-Col Koval, the Division's operational staff chief 
Lt-Col Gordeev, the Divisions artillery chief

Seems someone else was division artillery chief, but still dead. Col. Nikolai Kornelyuk:

Lt. Col. Viktor Pakholsky, Deputy Commander for Military-Political Affairs (Zampolit), 39th Helicopter Regiment:

 

Edited July 13, 2022 by akd

[Grigb]

RU paper production news.

Quote

The Ministry of Industry and Trade announced the benefits of Russian unbleached office paper

MOSCOW, July 13 - RIA Novosti. Unbleached office paper produced by Russian manufacturers is useful for human eyes, unlike bleached, said Oleg Bocharov, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation.
"We found out that the a gleaming white office paper is harmful to health. It turns out that more textured paper is useful for human eyes," he said, speaking at the council on the development of the forest complex. At the same time, according to Bocharov, the cost of such an  textured paper is lower. "Therefore, we believe that this was a serious maneuver by pulp and paper mills," he added.

 

[Butschi]

31 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

I think you'll find that almost all activity on this forum is contained in this thread. The forum isn't about CM any more, it's about the Russo-Ukraine war.

I think we had that discussion and shouldn't rekindle it. Let me just say this: Please accept that some of us are, I think, more concerned with the current real war than with a computer wargame. If BFC is ok with us discussing this here, then why shouldn't we and its not like this was a forum for licorice lovers or something. For me it's a natural place for this topic and the thread greatly helps me in understanding what is going on - and frankly also to cope with the situation. Btw. it also improves my broader understanding of CM.