How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a treat.  I got to ask some questions from a friend who just spent 3 days and nights with a Ukrainian infantry company and the battalion recon platoon somewhere in the south.  He fielded questions from others and of those I am going to summarize the most relevant/interesting ones for us.

First, this unit is not a typical unit.  It started off as a TD unit fighting around Kyiv and after that the personnel decided they wanted to take it up a notch so they applied to become a special forces (SSO) unit and in May they obtained official status as such.  They are technically a Regiment, but in reality they are probably Battalion sized (this is my guess).

Here are some of the most interesting bits that I have simplified and reorganized a bit to make it an easier read for this thread:

Q: It seems that Ukrainians have fluid command and control.  Is this true?
A: With the qualification that SSO is not a standard UAF unit, yes, they are definitely decentralized.  Company CO receives generalized orders such as defend here, attack there, and so on. How to do all that was left totally up to him. Platoon commanders were extremely independent and free to open fire, position weapons and men, set up positions, as they saw best. I also so sergeants talking to company grade officers effectively as equals.

Q: Did you see combined arms operations as recognized in the West?
A: Yes. At the level I was at it was a couple of recon guys using two drones, a smart phone, and a tablet to figure out where the target was and feed its location into the firing system. As they explained it to me, if it was a serious target, the Company CO or the the battalion FDC would automatically push getting that target hit by artillery, of which several batteries from several brigades (all in range, theoretically) were on call in general support of fire missions. But since the targets that day were individual fighting positions, the company mortars dealt with it.

Q:  How does the Recon Platoon fit into combined arms?
A: I saw enlisted members of a recce platoon directly involved, in the field, in identifying a target, feeding that data into the system, and adjusting fires. It took them a couple of minutes to work out exactly right grid location they wanted because it was hard at some points to see into the woodline with the drones. The time lapse from first called shot to spotting round strike was less than a minute and at least half of that was round flight.

Q: The front is long and thinly manned.  Do they do a lot of missions behind the lines?

A: The unit I was with doesn’t normally do behind-the-lines missions. They’re not demolitions experts or professional partisans, they’re special mission light infantry. They might get picked to do some kind of infiltration assault, but for the most part the closest they get to behind-the-lines is ground patrols in the gray zone, and every once in a long while sneaking up on a Russian position.

Q:  Do they conduct night ops?
A:  I saw video of and eventually talked with a couple of participants in a 6-man night patrol. They had hand-held thermals, they went pretty deep (800 m.) beyond friendly lines, they got engaged and they broke contact, and they brought back a casualty. It was very clear from the company CO that active, aggressive patrolling is something he wants done and that the battalion is doing across its front. It’s considered very dangerous work so they don’t seem to go out unless every meter of the patrol route is pre-screened by drones. (caveats - this is a dedicated recon unit within a SSO formation, so not necessarily typical).

Q: What sort of drones were in use and how were they used?
A: They were using cheapo Chinese drones. I remember Mavis was one of the manufacturers. They have access to drone support from higher echelons but it’s not always available and for their tactical needs they only need to fly out a couple of kilometers, maximum. They seemed to operate a pair of drones in the air at a time, one to poke around literally between tree branches, and a second to overwatch. Their SOP is constant surveillance so they continually rotate drones for battery changes.

Q: What were your general impressions of the quality of the soldiers you saw?
A:  Skill levels are, in general high, but likely not necessarily recognizable as professionals trained in peacetime as this is a mobilized unit in time of war. I saw very credible fighting positions dug nice and deep. I saw crew-served weapons in logical locations, rational fields of fire, and AT weapons sensibly piled up. I saw a recce platoon scour a woodline with drones meter by meter and spend the better part of an hour reviewing footage to try and figure out what was inside. I saw soldiers call the company commander by his first name and I saw food and water piled pretty haphazardly, but the M2 Browning was in perfect condition and the Company CO considered it his single most powerful weapon.  Soldiers were lax about wearing body armor during the day as it is hot and Russians tended to shell in the mornings.

Uniforms were clean and before eating people washed their hands. In the recce platoon there was lots of after market add ons and field items, a couple of guys looked very special forces and high end. In the line platoons, less so. Physical fitness, lean and healthy-looking. Only a few guys looked to be in their latter 30s or older. No baby faces. Not built up and muscular like you see with some NATO units who spend a lot of time on base lifting weights.

The company CO was young but he knew his business and tactics, and he relied a lot on senior soldiers - basically, older guys functioning like sergeants - to keep things running. Systems functioned, vehicles came and went, stuff went in and out of the supply room, recon data was crunched and plans made, and the company CO's job was basically oversight and final decision. Attitude was they were there to do their jobs and they did them without micromanagement.

Q: How is their morale holding up?

A: Morale seemed fine to me. Everyone is sure Ukraine is going to win, it’s just a question of how long it will take. The enemy is dangerous but it is very possible to beat him, even easy a lot of the time. Everyone is in the same boat: everyone has relatives or friends who were or are in occupied territory, or had to evacuate, or had home or property damaged by the Russians. It’s absolutely clear what they’re fighting for. Some griping about how higher command is stupid, but you can’t have an army without that. The common complaint was there’s just not enough artillery ammunition to kill the Russians when they find them.

 

Q:  Do personnel get leave or R&R?
A: definite “no”. There’s no rule against asking for leave but basically no one asks because units are short-handed and it’s not like this is training, this is a war and another man off the line is help to the Russians. So no one asks. The company CO told me guys mostly got breaks either when the unit is in a quiet sector and they’re just in passive defense, and then it’s possible to rotate say a platoon at a time back to battalion or regiment for showers and so forth, or, another new weapons system is in the pipeline and soldiers get pulled off the line to go to training. It is a pretty sustainable approach as long as you are not trying to beat the other guy with high-intensity warfare.

Q:  What's going on with Ukrainian reinforcements/replacements?  There's so many stated to be under arms, but it doesn't appear that they are at the front in huge numbers.  Where are they?
A: Either getting trained or more likely waiting for a training slot. The army has a replacements system but it’s priority-driven and infantry isn’t a training priority with artillery and crew-served weapons operators being much more badly needed, and also, the army is trying hard to pool enough replacement to build new brigades rather than feed replacements into the ones that exist. It’s basically down to limited training capacity, everyone says there are enough volunteers. But the Ukrainian army is trying pretty hard not to send untrained people into combat. TD units getting into big fights is something they want less, not more of.

 

Q: How do they think the summer's fighting will go?  Do they expect to just hold on, or do they think they'll attack in a significant way?
A: The general opinion is offensive possibilities depend on availability of heavy weapons and ammunition, particularly artillery. The key to any serious offensive is suppressing and destroying the RF artillery. Everyone from private to company commander pointed out to me that the Russians have about 3-5 times more artillery and 8-15 times more artillery ammunition.

They seemed absolutely confident that if the RF artillery could be dealt with, the UAF would advance and probably the RF infantry would break apart. By that same token, pretty much everyone I talked to seemed quite sure UAF human wave attacks to gain ground would be idiotic, and UAF high command would never order it.

All in all my impression was this was a unit that would fight and take casualties for some time, and the specialists (mortar, recce, crew-served) were probably at least as competent as NATO counterparts, and very likely more so because they’ve got a ton of live ammo experience. But they were so spread out and the command pressure so limited, that I wonder if they could maneuver as a single company. I have no proof but I guess they would need to practice quite a bit before maneuvering as part of a battalion.

 

[Battlefront.com]

This is supposedly the blown up car of MP Oleksiy Kovaliov.  He went to the occupied Russian Kherson area as a collaborator.  Here's a video reported to be of his car.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vigkot/kherson_region_peoples_deputy_collaborator/

But a Ukrainian source says it is not true:

https://babel.ua/en/news/80357-babel-sources-information-about-the-death-of-the-mp-oleksiy-kovaliov-fake

Similar story about another high profile collaborator nearly got killed:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vig0c0/kherson_region_the_car_of_collaborator_yuri/

He did survive though:

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2022-06-22-the-head-of-kherson-chernobaevka-turulev-spoke-about-the-assassination-attempt.HJ7ryPKlq9.html

And then there's this bit of psychological warfare for Russian occupiers to deal with:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Ooooo... close up video of the big LPR ammo dump cooking off taken by LPR soldiers:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vhryz9/june_16th_lpr_soldiers_take_cover_as_their/

It's a long video, but I recommend watching the whole thing to really get a feel for how huge of a hit that was to Russia's ammo supply.  The guys filming nearly got killed a couple of times despite trying to drive away after the initial hits.  I suspect some of the explosions were from Ukrainian artillery lighting off different parts of the supply dump, but for sure a large amount of it was Russian ammo cooking off.  Somewhere in the middle you can see rockets flying about randomly.

Steve

[Calamine Waffles]

5 hours ago, paxromana said:

THere were Portee (i.e. truck carried but not necessarily fired from) AT guns (2 pdrs at least) used in the Western Desert Campaign (at least) there was alkso the Deacon which was a 6pdr mounted on/fired from a truck which was only used in the Western Desert 42-43, the Italians alos had Truck mounted/fired artillery (75mm I presume)... and, of course, there was the Halftrack mounted 75mm and 88mm guns the Germans used and the various allied halftrack mounted guns.

This is the closest you will get to a CAESAR in World War II:



The T19 HMC only carried 8 rounds, though.

Edited June 23, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Grigb]

Girkin assessment of Kaliningrad blockade. Keep in mind the assessmentent is for a nationalist audience. I kept some crazy bits to illustrate about the way they think.

Quote

 

1. Military answer is not possible due to lack of physical access to Lithuania - Belarus alliance is required (implying the alliance is not possible due Belarus unwillingness to participate into such conflict). Also NATO article 5.
2. Most likely there will be some economic measures but due to Lithuania willingness to go to the end it will not matter much.
3. Two other Baltic republics most likely will join blockade. Possibly Finland too.
4. We are back to the fact that less active and decisive RU army is the more pressure points will appear (akin to Kaliningrad blockade).
5. If RU army will not destroy UKR army in one year all resources (army and economical) will be spent and Kaliningrad problems will be the smallest of all our worries.
6. We still have a Transdniestria problem. Both Moldova and Romania are watching carefully. If front is frozen in current configuration we will lose Transdniestria.
7. Pole volunteers aka mercenaries are already fighting by whole battalions at Donetsk, Avdiivka and so on [no comments. Well, there is one - it is possible they intercepted radio conversation between West UKR battalions speaking western dialect] 
8. Pole regulars are ready to enter West Ukraine (implying Poles are planning to occupy West UKR). [Usual RU madness that everybody else is the same as RU and want to occupy as much land as RU.
9. Just as I [Girking] predicted Poles are ready to take UKR under AA protection. They will make decision shortly.
10. All these issues - Pole's AA, Kaliningrad, Transdniestria, South Caucasus [Turkey influence], Tadjk-Afghan border (Taliban influence) and Kurila islands depends on quick and decisive victory. 
11. West is using slow boil of frog strategy (implying slowly boiling RU into submission with the help of RU government) [he did not said RU gov directly neither he said RU gov do it intentionally. He left it vague]
12. West is like a fisherman who hooked RU pike [fish] and now slowly guides it to the fish trap. Even if the fisherman weakens the fishing line, we must not celebrate that we are off the hook. [We will be put] on the fish stringer [in RU it has additional criminal related meaning of being penetrated with penis to make you dishonorable person - extreme form of RU humiliation worse than death] then on to frying pan.

 

 

Points of note:

• Difference in mentality - West pushes RU to stop doing bad things, RU believes West is doing it to destroy RU.
• Nationalists are trying to mobilize masses with West Scarecrow.

Given above the Info ops must focus on absence of need to mobilize - RU men who is not going to fight on RU Nats side will not be put on the fish stringer.  RU masses does not really care about anything except themselves and their close relatives. That's why RU Nats are scaring them that everybody will be put on the fish stringer and then killed. That's their only chance to mobilize masses given disintegration of RU gov credibility during Tyra scandal. 

[Grigb]

Civilian Girkin

• Ru is trying to bypass sanctions using Iran. Iran has agreed to send requested goods to RU. What exactly it can send is not clear as Iran is under sanctions as well. It cannot send anything critical for RU critical infrastructure. 
•  [Half seriously] RU people got another hit - various soda drinks manufacturers reports lack of carbon dioxide due to lack of fertilizers export (production decreased so supply of carbon dioxide as by-productions decreased as well. [my young contacts report that all problems with accustomed drinks (and food) are annoying hell out of young RU population. It not going to put them on the streets but increases pressure to leave the country]

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Girkin assessment of Kaliningrad blockade. Keep in mind the assessmentent is for a nationalist audience. I kept some crazy bits to illustrate about the way they think.

 

Points of note:

• Difference in mentality - West pushes RU to stop doing bad things, RU believes West is doing it to destroy RU.
• Nationalists are trying to mobilize masses with West Scarecrow.

Given above the Info ops must focus on absence of need to mobilize - RU men who is not going to fight on RU Nats side will not be put on the fish stringer.  RU masses does not really care about anything except themselves and their close relatives. That's why RU Nats are scaring them that everybody will be put on the fish stringer and then killed. That's their only chance to mobilize masses given disintegration of RU gov credibility during Tyra scandal. 

Man, they really have a problem with Poles it seems  Anyway, some interesting news:

 

As I understand this is just a bill to be discussed, but the direction sure is good. As a sidenote, comments sections seems either unusually dumb or bot infested O_o

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-aid-package-long-range-rocket-systems-this-week/

Reportedly, US will announce another arms package with more HIMARS as soon as today. Article also mentions that launchers from first batch are already there.

 

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Q: Did you see combined arms operations as recognized in the West?
A: Yes. At the level I was at it was ...

So ... what he describes is not combined arms.

Interesting conversation though, cheers

Edited June 23, 2022 by JonS

[hcrof]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

We still have a Transdniestria problem. Both Moldova and Romania are watching carefully. If front is frozen in current configuration we will lose Transdniestria.

Thanks Grigb, how do the RU nationalists think that they will "lose" Transdniestria? 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, hcrof said:

Thanks Grigb, how do the RU nationalists think that they will "lose" Transdniestria? 

Direct invasion of Moldovan army supported by Romania Army which in turn is supported by NATO. Battalions of foreign mercenaries will also take part.

RU mentality is fortress under foreign siege. They believe that all their neighbors who are not under direct RU control (aka RU puppets) desire to attack RU lands.

 

 

[Huba]

Just now, Grigb said:

Direct invasion of Moldovan army supported by Romania Army which in turn is supported by NATO. Battalions of foreign mercenaries will also take part.

RU mentality is fortress under foreign siege. They believe that all their neighbors who are not under direct RU control (aka RU puppets) desire to attack RU lands.

 

 

TBH I think this is almost exactly what will happen there, when it will be clear Russia lost the war.

[Taranis]

A kid with a toy rifle stands next to a Ukrainian patrol unit in central kyiv, Ukraine on June 22, 2022. GLEB GARANICH / REUTERS

[hcrof]

21 minutes ago, Huba said:

TBH I think this is almost exactly what will happen there, when it will be clear Russia lost the war.

I'm not sure, of course it is possible but I get the impression that many Moldovan people would rather be rid of the place since it is not ethnically or linguistically Moldovan/Romanian but rather a 5th column of Russians that would damage their democracy and prospects of EU membership. 

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I'm not sure, of course it is possible but I get the impression that many Moldovan people would rather be rid of the place since it is not ethnically or linguistically Moldovan/Romanian but rather a 5th column of Russians that would damage their democracy and prospects of EU membership. 

Question is how many Russians will be willing to stay there after the war. What I'm pretty sure of is that it will be dealt with, one way or another.

[Field Oggy]

7 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

Hmm...SAS in Jeeps? I thought they used Land Rovers?

Land Rovers didn't appear until the early 1950's, seeing service in the Korean war.  SAS Jeeps in WW2 North Africa were stolen from an Egyptian dockyard.

[BornGinger]

On 6/22/2022 at 1:39 AM, Vet 0369 said:

I’m sorry, I don’t understand your question.

It was a comment on what was mentioned about that person's relations to different relatives which seemed a bit unimportant to the subject.

[Grigb]

40 minutes ago, Huba said:

TBH I think this is almost exactly what will happen there, when it will be clear Russia lost the war.

They better do it regardless of what's going to happen. RU keeps it to us against Moldova. It is not if but when.

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

Question is how many Russians will be willing to stay there after the war. What I'm pretty sure of is that it will be dealt with, one way or another.

Lot more than people might think - RU patriots prefer to be patriots outside of RU. But Baltic experience can be used to deal with them. 

[Grigb]

Quote

 

Reuters - FRANKFURT, June 13 (Reuters) - Gazprom’s Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline will undergo its annual maintenance for ten days next month, its operator said on Monday, suggesting no gas will flow to Germany during that period.

Currently, it is planned that maintenance work will be done from 0600 CET (0400 GMT) on July 11 to 0600 CET on July 21, the company said.

 

It looks like we got the dates of increased RU pressure. Interesting thing is that "the maintenance" will allow RU to back pedal as needed without internal fallout. 

RU most likely will hit hard UKR around these dates. And most likely we will see much of panicked news. On other hand, if RU will not get desired result they will have to meet August empty handed. But historically August is an inconvenient month for RU government (August Coup 91, August 1998 Russian financial crisis, August 2000 Kursk disaster crisis, August 2008 Russo-Georgian War)

 

[Grigb]

Svyaznoy, one of the biggest RU retailers started contraband import using devices sent to Eurasian Economic Union states:

Samsung smartphones and watches, the latest iPhone line and PlayStation, Xbox and Nintendo game consoles. The devices will be 10-20% more expensive than similar ones imported before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine...

According to the president of Svyaznoy, Alexey Vukolov, in general, there will be enough pre-crisis stocks on the market for another two or three months.

BTW - LDNR (I expect soon RU regulars as well) rely heavily on civilian drones for drone tactical support.

[Huba]

52 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Lot more than people might think - RU patriots prefer to be patriots outside of RU. But Baltic experience can be used to deal with them. 

A little off-topic, but in my experience it's the other way around, at least as far as Polish diaspora is concerned. Expats tend to be much more conservative/ right-wing/ "patriotic" in general, it's a kind of coping mechanism I think.

[Grigb]

28 minutes ago, Huba said:

A little off-topic, but in my experience it's the other way around, at least as far as Polish diaspora is concerned. Expats tend to be much more conservative/ right-wing/ "patriotic" in general, it's a kind of coping mechanism I think.

Generally, it is true. But the issue is that a significant number of patriots love to live in Europeas as well. Look at RU government, the majority of simultaneously RU patriots and love to be in Europe away from RU. Hypocrisy is mind boggling.

Also, Polish experience is a bit biased because patriots dislike Poland and dislike living there.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

So ... what he describes is not combined arms.

Interesting conversation though, cheers

Yes it is.

combined arms – The synchronized and simultaneous application of arms to achieve an effect greater than if
each arm was used separately or sequentially. (ADP 3-0)
combined arms team – (DOD) The full integration and application of two or more arms or elements of one Service into an operation. (JP 3-18) Referenced in ATP 3-01.81.

https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/ARN31809-FM_1-02.1-000-WEB-1.pdf
 

Further it is also the more likely 21st century version - infantry, unmanned systems and indirect fires.

[Huba]

It's official:

 

[Aragorn2002]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ooooo... close up video of the big LPR ammo dump cooking off taken by LPR soldiers:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vhryz9/june_16th_lpr_soldiers_take_cover_as_their/

It's a long video, but I recommend watching the whole thing to really get a feel for how huge of a hit that was to Russia's ammo supply.  The guys filming nearly got killed a couple of times despite trying to drive away after the initial hits.  I suspect some of the explosions were from Ukrainian artillery lighting off different parts of the supply dump, but for sure a large amount of it was Russian ammo cooking off.  Somewhere in the middle you can see rockets flying about randomly.

Steve

Woow. Would love to see some drone footage from that. I bet those Russians have driven straight to Siberia.

 

Q:  What's going on with Ukrainian reinforcements/replacements?  There's so many stated to be under arms, but it doesn't appear that they are at the front in huge numbers.  Where are they?
A: Either getting trained or more likely waiting for a training slot. The army has a replacements system but it’s priority-driven and infantry isn’t a training priority with artillery and crew-served weapons operators being much more badly needed, and also, the army is trying hard to pool enough replacement to build new brigades rather than feed replacements into the ones that exist. It’s basically down to limited training capacity, everyone says there are enough volunteers. But the Ukrainian army is trying pretty hard not to send untrained people into combat. TD units getting into big fights is something they want less, not more of."

Hmmm. Not sure whether that's a good idea, but I hope they know what they're doing.

Edited June 23, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[kraze]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU mentality is fortress under foreign siege. They believe that all their neighbors who are not under direct RU control (aka RU puppets) desire to attack RU lands.

Pretty sure that's just an excuse to invade other countries and steal stuff. No asshole ever wants to admit that he's an asshole, while acting just like one.

This "under siege mentality" argument doesn't work anymore after putin basically proclaimed himself the new emperor and that all wars he started are the wars of "returning our land". It's not like anyone in Russia ever thought about their immediate neighbors differently before. Everyone and everything was always 'theirs'.

Edited June 23, 2022 by kraze