How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Fresh update with map. This seems one of the better days for Russians in last 1-2 weeks. They finally moved a front and almost reached outskirts of Lisichansk.The same what @haiduk said, just add that you can see how narrow the sack is.

Let's all hope soldiers (mainly from 24th Brigade) who are at Hiirskye- Zolotye area manage to retreat in order, if maps are correct they only have like 2-4 km wide corridor to slip out. I wonder how many people Ukrainians have in this sack. Maybe 2-3 battallions? Unless of course Ukrainians will manage to counterattack and take back Tushkivka, but it doesn't seem so, positions at Zolotye are too exposed from 3 sides.

Also this Russian drive at Bila Hora seem pretty dangerous for a city. I am curious how fortified is Lisichansk and areas behind.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[Suleyman]

I believe the Russians said there is 2000 soldiers in that Zolote Hiirskye cauldron(is that true? I dont know), 2-4km corridor is very dangerous to retreat from only because they will face artillery fire, and attack helicopters might be ordered to the area for exactly that reason. The Ukrainians may have to send some reinforcements to ease the retreat. 

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Fresh update with map. This seems one of the better days for Russians in last 1-2 weeks. They finally moved a front and almost reached outskirts of Lisichansk.The same what @haiduk said, just add that you can see how narrow the sack is.

Let's all hope soldiers (mainly from 24th Brigade) who are at Hiirskye- Zolotye area manage to retreat in order, if maps are correct they only have like 2-4 km wide corridor to slip out. I wonder how many people Ukrainians have in this sack. Maybe 2-3 battallions? Unless of course Ukrainians will manage to counterattack and take back Tushkivka, but it doesn't seem so, positions at Zolotye are too exposed from 3 sides.

Also this Russian drive at Bila Hora seem pretty dangerous for a city. I am curious how fortified is Lisichansk and areas behind.

We don't know who it was a good day for until we know the casualties on both sides. A few THOROUGHLY flattened square kilometers in the Donbas mean almost nothing. Whose army is running out of soldiers first means almost everything. 

[CAZmaj]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Slovenia sent to Ukraine 35 M80A IFV. This is Yugoslavia-designed IFV, armed with 20 mm canon and  double "Maliutka" (AT-3) ATGM launcher, with remote control from the turret. But latter, I think, useless in this war.

Slovenia had 51 M80 vehciles, which was going to decomission from service

 

Blast from the past  They were good when they were manufactured - 40 years ago

German engine - fast!

1983 Military Exercises Unity 1982, ex Yugoslav Army, Ovce Polje/Sveti Nikola, Macedonia (west of Bulgaria, east of Albania)

M80 shows up at 0:48.

My squad's (school for NCOs) trench is at 1:03:

 

1:58:

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by CAZmaj

[CAZmaj]

4 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

 

https://thesovietarmourblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/soviet-atgms.html#malyutka

Malyutka, depending on variant, is probably still perfectly usable against light AFVs and static positions. If you are as skilled as Abu TOW you can probably make even the early MCLOS variants work: https://www.calibreobscura.com/fighting-with-the-atgm-in-the-syrian-conflict-an-interview-with-abu-tow/

Besides, the standard BMP-1 uses Malyutka, so it is hardly an unfamiliar system to the ZSU.
 

 

Upgraded AT-3 is still manufactured in Romania.

[CAZmaj]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

We have BPM-1P with Fagot/Konkurs. In 2016 128th brigade used BMP-1 with AT-3, but already year ago launchers were dismounted from vehicles and I never seen them again. Also there wasn't any report or video about their usage.

AT-3 is more hard in guiding, than AT-4/5

Yes, very hard to guide.

And it had a very long minimum distance.

[Beleg85]

49 minutes ago, dan/california said:

We don't know who it was a good day for until we know the casualties on both sides. A few THOROUGHLY flattened square kilometers in the Donbas mean almost nothing. Whose army is running out of soldiers first means almost everything. 

In grand scheme of things, yes. But consideing the frontline was stalled for weeks, this is significant change if we downscale it to Battle of Donbas itelf. If they manage to capture some Ukrainians there, it would be good day for Russians regardless of their losses.

They manage to get pretty close to the ciy itself; can bring artillery closer, shorten the front significantly now (around 10 kms ) and join forces from both sides of the river. Also there is a railline going throught Hiirskie on W-E axis, so this can simplify RU logistics.

This area was real thorn in their sides. Also some voices in Ukraine accused Zelensky of  unnecessary keeping exposed troops there- it had much military sense, but position was precarious from the start.

Additionaly capturing Bila Hora gives them jumping point into city itself, but I read it as contested for now.

 

EDIT: They reportedly managed to retreat most of units.

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[Suleyman]

Lysychansk is still a very hard place to assault, unless the Russians completely surround it, it would take long to take it if they can.

[Vet 0369]

15 hours ago, BornGinger said:

What is his relationship to your neigbours?

I’m sorry, I don’t understand your question.

[Beleg85]

23 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

Lysychansk is still a very hard place to assault, unless the Russians completely surround it, it would take long to take it if they can.

They may have a plan to cut it off as well first. RU start to think (finally) and move on flanks of the salient and securing their own exposed flanks tactically. Still they may be spend doing so, of course, like at other places of Popasna breakthrought.

 

If anybody ever was interested how being next to massive exploding ammo depot looks like, it looks like this (ton down volume in your headphones...):

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[chuckdyke]

Comparison between T62 and T72.

 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

They may have a plan to cut it off as well first.

Somebody pointed out that the Russians needed to control the major road arteries for their logistics. Capturing empty farmland looks good for their domestic audience but there are little or no benefits. 

[Beleg85]

29 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Somebody pointed out that the Russians needed to control the major road arteries for their logistics. Capturing empty farmland looks good for their domestic audience but there are little or no benefits

Entire purpose of Ukrainians sticking to Zolotye salient was control of the railway line, now RUS will be able to use it to very simplify its own logistics in Popasna region and level the fronline. I agree it is not a tragedy for Ukrainians as such (and expected outcome at some point) but if Russians managed to simultaneously capture some foothole at Lisichansk outskirt may create dangerous situation for city defenders.

 

And first analysis of events from ISW (not embedding this time, already too many Twitter links):

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1539397821459210240

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21

ISW certainly agrees today wasn't great for the Ukr forces, but they certainly don't seem to think Russias long term prospects are any better.

44 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

They may have a plan to cut it off as well first. RU start to think (finally) and move on flanks of the salient and securing their own exposed flanks tactically. Still they may be spend doing so, of course, like at other places of Popasna breakthrought.

 

If anybody ever was interested how being next to massive exploding ammo depot looks like, it looks like this (ton down volume in your headphones...):

 

The guys who didn't start running at the second bang don't really deserve to still be here.

[chris talpas]

Center for Strategic & International Studies follow up session on assessing Russia’s performance.  

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

ISW certainly agrees today wasn't great for the Ukr forces, but they certainly don't seem to think Russias long term prospects are any better.

Yeah, like this...

Quote

• Investigative journalism group Bellingcat previously reported on June 17 that Russian President Vladimir Putin planned to replace Dvornikov as the commander of the invasion of Ukraine following Dvornikov’s excessive drinking and lack of trust among Russian forces.
• Ukraine’s Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reported on June 19 that Putin replaced Dvornikov as the commander of the Ukrainian operation with Colonel-General Gennady Zhidko, the head of the Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces.

However, if these varied reports are all accurate, former Aerospace Forces Commander Surovikin has replaced Dvornikov (who may have been forced to retire) as commander of the Southern Military District, but Zhidko has been appointed commander of Russian operations in Ukraine, despite not directly commanding Russian combat troops in his permanent role. Zhidko currently directs the body of the Russian Ministry of Defense responsible for maintaining morale and ideological control within the Russian military, rather than commanding a military district. As ISW previously reported, Southern Military District Commander Dvornikov was the natural choice to command Russia’s operations in Ukraine following Russia’s loss in the Battle of Kyiv, as the majority of Russian offensive operations are occurring within the Southern Military District’s area of responsibility. The appointment of a separate commander over the Southern Military District, and the replacement of the commander of the SMD in the middle of major combat operations, is a drastic step that would speak to severe crises within the Russian high command, and possibly a purge by the Kremlin. Such drastic rotations within the Russian military, if true, are not actions taken by a force on the verge of a major success and indicate ongoing dysfunction in the Kremlin’s conduct of the war.

Heh.  I read "the head of the Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces" and really didn't need to read anything else, because it says it all!  This is like putting the head of the cheerleading squad in for the coach.  Not a good sign!

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, chris talpas said:

Center for Strategic & International Studies follow up session on assessing Russia’s performance.  

 

I like Eliot Cohen, I like Eliot Cohen a lot.

[Suleyman]

I think the Russians will have more success as time goes on but only in Donbas (maybe Kherson region?), Ukraine has the manpower advantage and if Russia decides something crazy they would suffer terribly. Ukrainians put up very strong resistance.

As far as the LDNR troops standing close to their MLRS, that’s just stupid. I’ve been saying a while back the Russians need to learn what dispersion means. You cannot put troops and equipment so close to each other especially when UKR love opportunities like that

[Battlefront.com]

Reading yesterday's ISW report brought up yet another significant failure of the pre-war analysts.  I'm not sure any of them properly cased out the complications of a heavy reliance upon conscripts in a "special military operation" that suffered significant casualties.  We've seen the problems this has caused for the land forces, but think about the navy!  Consolidating ground units is bad, but consolidating ship crews is far worse (if not realistically impossible).

What has Russia done about this conundrum?  Ignored their restrictions on conscripts and put them into combat anyway.

Quote

The Kremlin is failing to deter the family members of sailors that survived the sinking of the Moskva from issuing an appeal against the deployment of surviving conscripts to the war in Ukraine as of June 20.[7] Russian opposition outlet Novaya Gazeta published an appeal from the parents of the surviving 49 conscript crewmembers of the Moskva, demanding that the Military Prosecutor’s Office in Sevastopol, the Committee of Soldier’s Mothers, and the Human Rights Commissioner immediately terminate the crewmembers’ deployment. The appeal states that Russian commanders did not send the surviving conscripts home from their deployment following the sinking of Moskva and that they will be recommitted to hostilities on June 30. The appeal noted that the survivors refuse to participate in further assignments due to psychological distress and are currently stationed on the old ship Ladnyi, which the appeal claims is unfit for combat. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) previously reported that Russian forces have threatened the families of Moskva sailors with criminal prosecution and nullification of any financial benefits to prevent them from speaking out against Russian operations.

I wonder if any of this sort of thing factored into assessments of Russia's ability to fight the sort of war it finds itself in right now.  As I said, I doubt it.

Steve

[Grigb]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder if any of this sort of thing factored into assessments of Russia's ability to fight the sort of war it finds itself in right now.  As I said, I doubt it.

While I do not have experience with RU Navy historically it is the most screwed up RU force. It is constant embarrassment for RU. 

Regarding the current RU push - it needs to be seen in context of two ongoing UKR political victories. RU is suffering noticeable and highly embarrassing cracks in Donbass collaborators morale due to Donetsk shelling. Also, RU is suffering noticeable cracks in RU nationalist morale and loyalty due to the ongoing Tyra exchange scandal.

Two Pressure Cookers (Donetsk area and RU home) started to display the first cracks and that greatly unnerves RU command. They desperately need something to mask their political failures.

It does not mean both cracks will lead to open rebellion, but it does mean that the human base of RU is shrinking and UKR is growing because indifferent RU activists are good for Ukraine.

For US guys, it is like hardcore voters are getting pissed off - they are not going to vote for other party anyway, but they might decide to stay home during an election ensuring other party victory. That's where we are heading right now unless RU pulls something out of it's butt.

[dan/california]

Tyra exchange scandal is not coming up on google. It gets buried in 9 billion posts about the singer /actress Tyler Banks. Could you possibly enlighten us further? Many thanks.

[Letter from Prague]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Tyra exchange scandal is not coming up on google. It gets buried in 9 billion posts about the singer /actress Tyler Banks. Could you possibly enlighten us further? Many thanks.

Yeah I'm curious as well.

[dan/california]

Ok, I found it now, it is that prisoner exchange, not some sort of financial scandal. The fact that Russian Telegram channels are are in a white hot rage about Putin NOT executing a female medic tells you all you need to know about which is the right side in this war. And that we need to send the Ukr a BLEEP TON more equipment.

Edited June 22, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

UA bombed Russian oil refinery. Good for them!

According to UK MoD, DPR published official casualty figures, which equate to 55% pre-war strength

[Taranis]

"Children play in a hut built from ammunition boxes, in the village of Novoselivka, near Chernihiv, on June 21, 2022. SERGEI CHUZAVKOV / AFP"