How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Ultradave]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

"Yesterday our soldiers successfully used their bodies to intercept thousands of bullets."

Senator John McCain used to joke that he was not a hero, because all he did was completely destroy a $50,000 AA missile by ramming it with his multimillion dollar F-4 Phantom. Always got a laugh. 
 

Dave

[kraze]

10 hours ago, Grigb said:

Do you have a feel that at least Geraschenko is pushing toward a peace deal? Is it possible that there is power game among Ukraine political elite to portrait current situation as losing, push Zelinsky to get a peace deal then blame him for bad ending and remove him from power? Everybody will be back to business as usual...

@Haiduk what is your opinion?

Not losing and not remove him from power. Nobody considers anything but victory with feb24 frontlines as a minimum. One lobby just wants to keep things as they are in Ukraine, isolate us from EU and NATO and they need Russia with anyone but putin to guarantee them this "stability". They are just blind to the obvious facts (anyone in power in Russia will always want to destroy Ukraine) and want to risk another war to keep all the cash from corruption deals they have flowing. Coincidentally these are all Kolomoysky's people too.

The other lobby wants to wall off Russia forever, fully turn to EU and NATO, accept any demands to fight corruption and be safe from war for the foreseeable future. And thank god these people are in charge of military (Danilov, Reznikov and, well let's be honest here, Zaluzhnyy as well) and hence you see Danilov finally lashing out at the "make russia good again" lobby and just saying that only guys who are directly in charge of fighting the war can make any statements about the war.

Edited June 20, 2022 by kraze

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Grigb said:

Do you have a feel that at least Geraschenko is pushing toward a peace deal? Is it possible that there is power game among Ukraine political elite to portrait current situation as losing, push Zelinsky to get a peace deal then blame him for bad ending and remove him from power? Everybody will be back to business as usual...

@Haiduk what is your opinion?

Of course, like in USA, for example, inside our authorities "pigeons" and "hawks" also present. "Pigeons" are not pro-Russian (pure pro-Russian politics now either fled or lurked in the shadow), but they would want to stop the war as quicly as possible. "Pigeons" will advice president to renew negotiations, when Ukraine will achieve some significant success on battefield, when "hawks" will advice to fight until as minimum we reach 24th Feb lines or better until we libarate all terrirories. Society is mostly on the side of "hawks". 

Gerashchenko, the man of Avakov (he is not only former internal affairs minister, but 2nd-level oligarch) is not pro-Russian, he is just a man of corrupted system in police.

Who is portrait current situation as "losing" and "betrayal" are political opponents of Zelenskiy - followers of former president Poroshenko. Bot networks and public opinion leaders, hired by Poroshenko constatly shared usual hate on each event, tied with Zelenskiy. In their eyes he is "traitor, maloros, clown, puppet of Kolomoyskyi and Yermak, who signed secret deal with Russia in Oman about gradually surrendering of Ukraine to Russia" and "Zelenskyi handed over southern Ukraine to Russia and was ready to hand over and Kyiv too, but he didn't expect that army will be resist" . On their opinion only Poroshenko now secretly managed all diplomacy and maintained support of western countries (even lend-lease and British NLAWs before a war), and Zelenskyi only makes self-PR. They believed Zaluzhnyi and army just make war on their own, ignoring the wishes of Zelenskyi to surrender. Some of them openly write they would be glad if Ukraine lose or remained without westren support, only for "73% of green debils, which elected pro-Russian clown were punished". But this is real clinic. 

On other hand we have the same bot-farm and public opinion leaders, hired by President's Administration and in their writings we can find out that Zelenskyi is a greatest political figure of modern times (like and followers of Poroshenko), how under his wise leadership Ukraine prepared to war and is getting support from all western world, how our army is winning day by day and the victory will be soon (this is duty of Arestovich).

So, Ukrainain inner politic showdowns and intrigues, alas take place even in this time... 

  

Edited June 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Of course, like in USA, for example, inside our authorities "pigeons" and "hawks" also present. "Pigeons" are not pro-Russian (pure pro-Russian politics now either fled or lurked in the shadow), but they would want to stop the war as quicly as possible. "Pigeons" will advice president to renew negotiations, when Ukraine will achieve some significant success on battefield, when "hawks" will advice to fight until as minimum we reach 24th Feb lines or better until we libarate all terrirories. Society is mostly on the side of "hawks". 

Gerashchenko, the man of Avakov (he is not only former internal affairs minister, but 2nd-level oligarch) is not pro-Russian, he is just a man of corrupted system in police.

Who is portrait current situation as "losing" and "betrayal" are political opponents of Zelenskiy - followers of former president Poroshenko. Bot networks and public opinion leaders, hired by Poroshenko constatly shared usual hate on each event, tied with Zelenskiy. In their eyes he is "traitor, maloros, clown, puppet of Kolomoyskyi and Yermak, who signed secret deal with Russia in Oman about gradually surrendering of Ukraine to Russia" and "Zelenskyi handed over southern Ukraine to Russia and was ready to hand over and Kyiv too, but he didn't expect that army will resist and". On their opinion only Poroshenko now secretly "managed"  all diplomacy and maintained support of western countries (even lend-lease and British NLAWs before a war), and Zelenskyi only makes self-PR. They believed Zaluzhnyi and army just make war on their own, ignoring the wishes of Zelenskyi to surrender. Some of theme openly write they would be glad if Ukraine will lose or remained without westren support, only for "73% of green debils, which elected pro-Russian clown were punished". But this is real clinic. 

On other hands we have the same bot-farm and public opinion leaders, hired by President's Administration and in their writings we can find out that Zelenskyi is a greatest political figure of modern times (like and followers of Poroshenko), how under his wise leadership Ukraine prepared to war and give support from all western world, how our army is winning day by day and the victory will be soon (this is duty of Arestovich).

So, Ukrainain inner politic showdowns and intrigues, alas took place even in this time... 

  

I am betting on Zelensky

As a small aside, the word commonly used for the peace/appeasement/surrender monkey party is dove, not pigeon. But I think I like pigeon much better. 

 

[Haiduk]

I can be wrong, but looks like this is first time of NATO recon flight close to Crimea since the 24th Feb

RAF RC-135W 

After shelling of rigs in the sea, Russians launched 14 missiles on Ochakiv, Odesa, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi. Recently at the morning they launced two missiles Onyx on Odesa oblast, but both were intercepted.

Russian TGs claim Russian Black Sea Fleet left Sevastopol and in battle order sails to Odesa direction "to resolve once and forever the questions of Ukrainian fleet rtemainings". If this true and not fake patriotic bravado, I hope, each Neptun, Harpoon and RBS-17 will find own targets... 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Suleyman]

Russian sources say they launched a general offensive in Lugansk, also they seem to want to attack Lyschansk from the south, which is obviously a better option than crossing through Severodonetsk. 
 

 

[FancyCat]

4 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Talking of military ineptitude ... the Saudis have been using AMRAAMs to knock down Houthi 'suicide' UAVs in the Yemen conflict for quite a while now.

Tbf, those UAVs are being used to attack Saudi oil facilities and those are essential targets for SA to defend. 

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Rumors started to circulate about RU Black Fleet big raid toward Odessa. Says RU finally decided to get rid of UKR fleet remnants and that already multiple targets hit with missile targets at several UKR regions.

I ignored them initially (i mean against what they are planning to fight? What remnants of the fleet?) but more and more RU started to pick them up. Saying that it might be cover for RU reinforcement of Island defenses against incoming UKR attack.

@Haiduk any comments?

 

Probably trying to eliminate the launchers and system. Hopefully Ukraine is careful enough to keep them hidden. 

Interesting thread from Weiss, which im quoting some below, there was worry that the defenders would get cut off due to bridge collapse, but sounds like Ukraine is still sticking to the method of giving ground for time, while also bleeding them out in SD. I wonder if it was a temporary surge into SD, that was then rotated out when Russia pulled more units in? 

Quote

"This means the situation is not comparable to Mariupol. Also, the number of remaining Ukrainian troops in SD is maybe around 1,000. That’s a maximum half of what Ukraine had in Mariupol in the end."

o.O 

Quote

"Unofficial numbers have Ukraine's KIA figure between 10-15,000."

 

"There is new evidence of some senior level Russian military commanders estimating their KIA number at 42,000. This is considerably more than any previously reported number even by the Ukrainians."

First, rumors about Romania and Bulgaria, now we have Slovakia, very good news, if Ukraine can both use Soviet and NATO equipment, that may change how the artillery battle is going much earlier. 

Quote

"Some CEE countries (such as Slovakia) have restarted their old lines and are producing Russian/Soviet caliber ammunition."

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

That 40,000+ KIA number won't die.  A month ago Kofman estimated Russian KIA at a more realistic 10-12,000. It's probably 15,000-ish by now.

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

Russian sources say they launched a general offensive in Lugansk, also they seem to want to attack Lyschansk from the south, which is obviously a better option than crossing through Severodonetsk. 
 

 

They havn't enough troops for mass attack Lysychansk from the south. Russians stalled in their attempts to advance along (or across) the road Bakhmut - Lysychansk and LPR forces (4th motor-rifle brigade with some Russian support) bogged in assaults of Zolote - Toshkivka - Ustynivka

Edited June 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TGs claim Russian Black Sea Fleet left Sevastopol and in battle order sails to Odesa direction "to resolve once and forever the questions of Ukrainian fleet rtemainings". If this true and not fake patriotic bravado, I hope, each Neptun, Harpoon and RBS-17 will find own targets... 

Having just lost a ship to harpoons the Russians and showing their usual tactic.  Get rid of UKR weapons by providing targets.  stupid fkrs.  Somebody high up must have just learned the chess move of sacrificing a pawn and now apply it to everything.

[Haiduk]

NASA FIRMS. The rig in the flame. Grey dot to the west - Zmiinyi island with no fire.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Calamine Waffles]

  

14 hours ago, kraze said:

SBU was purged hard. It's a bit more complicated than that and involves nepotism, incompetency, cowardice, all under a 'pro-russian lobby gaining some power back' sauce.

Part of that "pro-russian"* lobby is Gerashchenko hence why I, just as Haiduk, strongly advice you to avoid him. Same as I advise you to ignore Podoliak, Arakhamiya and Arestovich as they are from that very same lobby. It's our burden to deal with them.

*It's in quotes because they don't exactly want us to become a territory of Russia like Belarus de facto did, but those people realize they won't be able to be corrupt if Ukraine goes for EU and NATO and hope that they can simply deal with Russia instead, like it was before 2014, with someone more "moderate" than putin at the helm. Of course this will never work out because there are no "moderate" russians as 300 years of history show, but politicians aren't always the most intelligent and educated bunch.

Thanks for your insights! It was just my impression as an outsider looking in.

 

6 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

That 40,000+ KIA number won't die.  A month ago Kofman estimated Russian KIA at a more realistic 10-12,000. It's probably 15,000-ish by now.

To put it bluntly, I don't think Kofman is in any position to know Russian KIA any more accurately than "Karl" from Estonia. Who, by the way, has been more on point with regards to this war than Kofman ever was.

[Suleyman]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

They havn't enough troops for mass attack Lysychansk from the south. Russians stalled in their attempts to advance along (or across) the road Bakhmut - Lysychansk and LPR forces (4th motor-rifle brigade with some Russian support) bogged in assaults of Zolote - Toshkivka - Ustynivka

Interesting I'm not one to buy into claims without evidence, just stating what they said. Maybe they just want to threat Lysychansk instead of actually take it from the south to make it easier to attack from Severodonetsk. 

[Haiduk]

Last update about Russian fleet, reportedly (RUMINT!) they lined up not far from western shore of Crimea and probably is preparing to mass launch of missiles 

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

NASA FIRMS. The rig in the flame. Grey dot to the west - Zmiinyi island and no fire.

Is that ships launching missiles, or ships on fire?

Also, you have to pity Russian naval conscripts, you have to eat Russian navy food and THEN get sunk

 

Edit, I read it right on the third try... 

Edited June 20, 2022 by dan/california

[Vanir Ausf B]

3 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

  To put it bluntly, I don't think Kofman is in any position to know Russian KIA any more accurately than "Karl" from Estonia. Who, by the way, has been more on point with regards to this war than Kofman ever was.

Well in that case I would like to see Karl from Estonia's estimate and how he came up with it.

Kofman is quite explicit that he has low confidence in that number, that it could have been as low as 7,000 or as high as 15,000. But that is beside the point, which is that it can't be anywhere near 40,000. If it were the UA would be half way to Moscow by now.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Last update about Russian fleet, reportedly (RUMINT!) they lined up not far from western shore of Crimea and probably is preparing to mass launch of missiles 

Seems to be true

BTW in the thread above there are satellite photos os smoke above Snake Island, it might have been hit too, not only the platforms. Arestovych confirmed it, for what it's worth. 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Huba

[Calamine Waffles]

11 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Well in that case I would like to see Karl from Estonia's estimate and how he came up with it.

Kofman is quite explicit that he has low confidence in that number, that it could have been as low as 7,000 or as high as 15,000. But that is beside the point, which is that it can't be anywhere near 40,000. If it were the UA would be half way to Moscow by now.

The Ukrainians had about 7-8,000 dead Russians in cold storage. Unless you believe they are so efficient that they are recovering half of the Russians killed in Ukraine, there is absolutely no way that the Russian dead are only 15,000. And that was in April.
 

https://www.thelowdownblog.com/2022/04/numbers-of-unclaimed-russian-war-dead.html
 

This is "Karl"'s claim. I have no reason to take it seriously prima facie, but based on his track record, I'd say he's probably closer to the truth. Remember that the Russians are on the offensive and they are having repeated failed attacks.

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Haiduk]

Anecdotical incident, but it shows how situation can be changed. One UKR unit got some new uniform and boots and put its in storage to some barn in own close rear. When combat medic of this unit returned soon to this barn to take a boots for himself, he saw that eight LDPR conscripts were looting the storage.  One of them already had a time to put on boots of this medic. UKR soldier shot at one of them in the leg, other immediatelly surrendered

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vanir Ausf B]

6 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

The Ukrainians had about 7-8,000 dead Russians in cold storage. Unless you believe they are so efficient that they are recovering half of the Russians killed in Ukraine, there is absolutely no way that the Russian dead are only 15,000. And that was in April.
 

https://www.thelowdownblog.com/2022/04/numbers-of-unclaimed-russian-war-dead.html

Then pick a better number.

I'm just pointing out that 40,000 KIA would translate to roughly 185,000 total casualties. There would be no Russians left in Ukraine.

[Calamine Waffles]

And your assumption that they would have roughly 185,000 casualties is based on what?

Edited June 20, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Haiduk]

Javelin launch on BMP-3

Time-lapse photo of Javelin launch

[kraze]

13 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Then pick a better number.

I'm just pointing out that 40,000 KIA would translate to roughly 185,000 total casualties. There would be no Russians left in Ukraine.

And there are 140 mln russians, ready to die for the Emperor. Besides ideology - toilets won't just deliver themselves to Russia.

Russia has been running very real, albeit covert mobilization, for months. Also pulling standing troops from as far as Vladivostok just this month.

Their casualties are huge, but unlike western society - russian culture has zero value for human life. They don't really care how many die, just that they can be proud of some achievement in conquest.

Just to get why my cynicism isn't far off from the truth - ask yourself - what makes a russian come die at a war that has no point but to exterminate other people, for being too different from him? Even Peter I Remastered and his cronies pretend no more - they say it's their goal directly. He could've lived his life, but instead he had his head blown off by some Javelin and that was it. Zero f... value given.

Edited June 20, 2022 by kraze

[Haiduk]

About Russian fleet along the western shore. It could be did for air defense purposes. Reportedly, after UKR hit the rigs, locals in Crimea concerned that UKR forces will strike on Crimea too, so Aksionov hastened to calm them dowm that Crimea has strong AD.  

So, maybe Russian command considered new opportunity of UKR forces as serious threat and move the ships to shield additionally to the ground AD assets western direction and intercept possible missiles on military objecst in Crimea

Edited June 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vanir Ausf B]

13 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

And your assumption that they would have roughly 185,000 casualties is based on what?

I did the math in my head wrong. It would be 180,000.

40,000 x 3.5 = 140,000 WIA. 140+40=180,000