How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

13 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Medvedev has always been Putin's puppet.

Maybe some of the crazy things he has been saying recently is an attempt to make Putin look like the rational by comparison. Zherinovsky is dead now so Putin needs a new court jester.

Kind of like the good cop bad cop routine.

Ah but no - putin's speech was even more insane, dropping all pretense and saying "I'm just grabbing more land because I'm the emperor now". That's just russians for you, you just didn't have the honor of knowing their true self due to language barrier, but they are surely trying to bring their culture to you without external help, hard.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, kraze said:

And yes - we have almost no 152mm shells left - which is the reason frontline is so static because there's no overabundance of western arty and ammo to replace that - YET.

So on that, according to defence24.pl donors pledged 100 more 155mm guns. No more details, but that's a much nicer number than 18 M777s. Most of those should arrive in August. 

Also, Canada donated 10 replacement barrels for their guns. 

 

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Won't argue with that. Apart from the survivability maybe as the Shermans (at least early in the war) had a bad name to the point they were called ronsons from the lighter brand.

The M4a2 models supplied to the USSR were diesel engined. Not Ronsons.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

So far. But I was speaking in the event of WW3 , and a hypothectical pact of Russia and China. The prelude is very remiscent of the Germany-Japan pact so something like this came to mind.

But from Russia it looks like China is slowly pushing Russia down under the water, so it will drown faster.

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Not across all platforms. For instance S-400 and S-500 are very capable systems not sure if the West can match these.

No, they are not. There is reason West is not doing anything similar. They are White Elefant for a show. Ru cannot match west Air forces to hide weakness every few dozens years RU is creating White Elefants. They do the same with tanks - Armata is similar White Elefant.

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

In Artillery it seems even now quantity plays a big role as we see in Donbas

Nope, we do not see it at Donbas. Divide 50,000 RU rounds per day by 900 Ru tubes. You will get 55 rounds per gun per day which is very close to 60 rounds. And 60 rounds is so called default ammo load for 152mm - it is their historical top for round expenditure per gun per day (they could shoot more for a short period but only with significant preparation period)

That's not that big.

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

And when this will happen? When Russia reaches Dnipro?

Do not ask me. I am not American.

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

They really do fear nuclear escalation

No. Every Russian, even hard-core nationalist fears US conventional forces. RU government fears US Forces even more because they know lot more.

I watched RU nationalists' reaction when Wagnerites confronted US forces in Syria. It looked as if USAF raped Wagnerites BDSM style. RU lost there last illusions they can deal with conventional US forces.

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

 I suspect once Germany becomes a big military force (admit not always a good idea historically) we will change how we see Europe and maybe people who love big powerful militaries like the US will start to respect them.

Everybody respect Germans for what they are and what they are doing regardless of their military power status. But it not about military power. Rigth now EU has enough power to deal with RU without US. Poland alone can fight RU to standstill and most likely will defeat them alone. Ukrainians are doing it right now.

It is about good guy mentality that led them to the current predicament with supply from Russia.

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

I still respect Europe for its social achievements more.   

That's why we all love Europe. With all the issues (they are not that big really) I consider it the greatest place to live peacefully. Still truth needs to be told that due to mentioned issue (remoteness from Russia) there is certain dynamic that will tear apart Pan-European alliance. Alliance with US is fundamentally better against RU.

[Calamine Waffles]

Tom Cooper, who writes a lot about the Arab Air Forces during the Cold War, gives his view on the performance of both the VVS and the PSU:

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/the-failure-of-air-power-during-the-russia-ukraine-war/

Quote

After watching at least two dozen of videos released over the last few days — I remain unimpressed by the performance of both air forces involved in this war.

Quote

Foremost, it means that geniuses in charge of both countries, and their GenStabs have all failed to equip their air forces with

• a) means of effectively suppressing enemy air defences,
• b) weaponry enabling their air forces to reliably hit their targets, and
• c) self-protection systems for pilots and aircraft.

Discussing just these three topics could easily fill a few books — but, it’s still not all. After at least two months of monitoring this ‘spray and pray’ tactics, it’s obvious that neither side has any kind of clue how to solve the problem on hand. That seems to be the principal issue here: neither side has a solution for problem on hand. This is where ‘armchair warriors’ like me cannot but ask themselves: and, what exactly were all the glorious Soviet military advisors doing in, say, Egypt and Syria of 1973, Iraq and Angola of 1980s….?

Quote

One way or the other, the unavoidable result of what the two air forces are performing the last few days is little else but a big air show including a colossal waste of ammunition (and fuel, and years of training that costs millions, etc., etc., etc.). No doubt, both sides are claiming ‘precise air strikes and every single air strike = ‘target destroyed’. Indeed, both are certainly convinced their grandpas are extremely proud of them, too. But meanwhile I have strong doubts they have at least a trace of clue about actual results.

Also talks about the Kh-22 being fired by the Tu-22Ms (which have a CEP of 3 miles)

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/russian-tu-22m-3-bombers-are-hitting-ukraine-with-kh-22-as-4-kitchen-1960s-missiles-but-since-they-have-a-circular-error-probable-of-3-miles-they-are-missing-their-targets/

Quote

Developed back in the 1960s, it’s an old weapon: something like ‘1,5 generation’ of Soviet guided missiles. Unsurprisingly, in ‘land attack mode’ it had ‘circular error probable’ [CEP] of about 3 miles: therefore, back in the 1960s it was usually equipped with a nuclear warhead.

Quote

Anyway: apparently, after all these years, the Kh-22 now saw its combat premiere, too. Guess, might explain lots of Ukrainian reports about ‘mysterious detonations’ well away from anything meaningful, which appeared in the last few days.

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Elmar Bijlsma]

1 minute ago, paxromana said:

The M4a2 models supplied to the USSR were diesel engined. Not Ronsons.

As a fair few T-72 crew are finding out, when someone gets through your armour, your fuel isn't what you need to worry about when you are stacking ammo in every place it can fit.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Won't argue with that. Apart from the survivability maybe as the Shermans (at least early in the war) had a bad name to the point they were called ronsons from the lighter brand. 

The real Ronson was T-34 - unlike Sherman it has fuel tanks inside crew compartment. 

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

And we have to at least give credit to the T-34 engineers for impressing their germans colleagues so much, that they based the best tank design of the war on it, the Panther. 

Panther had radically different ideology. Angling of upper front plate is like the only thing they have in common. But angling was not unique to RU. AFAIR French made it first.

 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

No, they are not. There is reason West is not doing anything similar. They are White Elefant for a show. Ru cannot match west Air forces to hide weakness every few dozens years RU is creating White Elefants. They do the same with tanks - Armata is similar White Elefant.

S-500 is vaporwave at the moment, but S-400 is supposedly fielded in really big numbers, much larger than Patriot is in any country apart from US. It is not a Wunderwaffe, but has to be more capable than older S-300 models, which prove to be extremely effective in Ukraine. 

[Calamine Waffles]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

S-500 is vaporwave at the moment, but S-400 is supposedly fielded in really big numbers, much larger than Patriot is in any country apart from US. It is not a Wunderwaffe, but has to be more capable than older S-300 models, which prove to be extremely effective in Ukraine. 

If there's been one thing consistently shown in the history of 20th century warfare, it's that air defence systems are usually much less capable than advertised.

[Harmon Rabb]

30 minutes ago, kraze said:

Ah but no - putin's speech was even more insane, dropping all pretense and saying "I'm just grabbing more land because I'm the emperor now". That's just russians for you, you just didn't have the honor of knowing their true self due to language barrier, but they are surely trying to bring their culture to you without external help, hard.

On second thought making Putin's recent decisions seem sane does seem like an impossible task.

[Huba]

17 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Poland alone can fight RU to standstill and most likely will defeat them alone. Ukrainians are doing it right now.

You mean pre-war PL vs RU? No chance in hell. Compared to UA Poland has no air defence to speak of, that's one. Smaller military, no reserves at all, with few pieces of modern equipment, and in general we had not enough sense of urgency to improve on that. Also Poland has much less ground to trade.

There was a huge scandal here not long ago when results of central command exercises were made public, and all ended in crushing defeat against RU in time of days. 

All of that is changing drastically though, in 5 years RU will be in no position to threaten us by conventional means. 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

S-500 is vaporwave at the moment, but S-400 is supposedly fielded in really big numbers, much larger than Patriot is in any country apart from US. It is not a Wunderwaffe, but has to be more capable than older S-300 models, which prove to be extremely effective in Ukraine. 

S-300 is capable against RU VVS.

[keas66]

Any more news on the Ukrainian advances  in Kherson and  Izyum ?  Really would like to see some more  Ukrainian  War   news on this thread  - but seems like the amount of  details getting out is shrinking ?

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

If there's been one thing consistently shown in the history of 20th century warfare, it's that air defence systems are usually much less capable than advertised.

Against USAF there's no defence. But in Ukraine their numerous S-300 neutered whole RUAF to the point that they only do CAS, mostly by tossing rockets. There were no bombing raids into Ukraine for months - that's pretty effective in mybook

[Calamine Waffles]

They just shot down an Mi-24 near Kherson:
 

  

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Against USAF there's no defence. But in Ukraine their numerous S-300 neutered whole RUAF to the point that they only do CAS, mostly by tossing rockets. There were no bombing raids into Ukraine for months - that's pretty effective in mybook

That's just what happens when you send an air force with zero SEAD capabilities and experience against a country with fairly reasonable air defences.

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Harmon Rabb]

Good to see some Russians on the right side of this war.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

That's just what happens when you send an air force with zero SEAD capabilities and experience against a country with fairly reasonable air defences.

Sure, but that description fits more or less all western air forces save for USAF. 

[Calamine Waffles]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Sure, but that description fits more or less all western air forces save for USAF. 

I don't know. I would expect the US helps them train and equip for this kind of scenario.

[A Canadian Cat]

14 hours ago, Machor said:

This one's for @Kinophile 

"The bridge will be “Target Number One” for the military once Ukraine gets the necessary weapons."

Did he just say the quiet part out loud

 

12 hours ago, alison said:

Nationalism aside, taking Taiwan would allow China to project power into the Pacific in a way they currently cannot. I think that strategic benefit is what the Chinese government really seeks in the long term.

Perhaps, but they can project power into the Pacific without re taking Taiwan. Admittedly it is harder but I think we have seen a demonstration of what additional problems can come from such an action. It should be clear to China that they would be better off continuing to harass shipping in international waters as a way of pushing back. They can do that essentially forever without getting into significant negative reaction.

That's a pretty big "should" though so we cannot rule out more over action.

[Huba]

And perhaps the most important news from Macron - he tweeted, in Ukrainian, that Ukraine has to be able to win

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Letter_from_Prague said:

And thanks for mentioning the selectively applied sanctions, Steve - yes, China can shuffle things around and have different set of companies trading with West and with Russia so when their Russia-trading companies get sanctioned it limits the impact. But this kind of isolation adds extra cost, and that might make the Russian business not worth much.

Yup.  For sure we should expect some sanctions violations by Chinese companies with, or without, the direct blessing of the Chinese government.  I'd be shocked if that doesn't happen.  However, it seems the West (and the US in particular) has made it clear that the level of support Russia needs would be too costly for China to provide.

Let's also not forget that Russia needs a lot of sanctioned things simply to keep its economy going.  This isn't all about Russia's military needs.  This is important if one thinks about capacity and willingness of someone like China to dodge sanctions.  Here's a made up example to illustrate my point.

Let's say that Russia needs $100B worth of imports that are sanctioned.  Let's say that $80B of it are military, $20B of it are general economic needs.  China looks at this and says "no way are we going to be able to get away with doing that much sanctions dodging.  Russia, we'll send you $20B worth of stuff, but you'll have to pay us $40B and accept much longer lead times than you're used to".

What's Russia going to do with a situation like this?  This isn't enough capacity to do much to keep the military going, whereas the general economic is critically important to staying in power and by extension the war effort.  Does Russia direct all that capacity to keeping the economy going?  Does it proportionally supply both military and economic needs thereby giving each something though not enough?  Does it go all in for military needs, though coming up very short, and then try to sort out the economy some other way?

Then there's the whole problem of Russia being able to afford this at all.  Even if China said "we'll do all $100B in trade with you, West be damned, but you're going to have to pay us $200B or the equivalent of $400B if you're going to give us Rubles".

People thinking that China is just itching to supply Russia really don't understand how economics work.  China, for the most part, does.  That means they aren't itching to supply Russia.

Steve

[Centurian52]

On 6/13/2022 at 8:39 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Thank you Haiduk for correctly framing the discussion about territory and it's importance to the Ukrainian psyche.  It is not unlike some of the other instances mentioned a page or two ago, such as Alsace or Germany's eastern territories.  There's a principle at stake that isn't inherently rational, therefore trying to rationalize compromising it is doomed to failure.

I'd argue that there is also a 100% rational principle at stake here. Continuing the war until Ukraine has regained, at a minimum, all of its pre-Feb 24 territory (preferably all of its pre-2014 territory) may prolong the current war and postpone peace in the short term. But I feel it is important for assuring peace in the long term. Russia cannot be allowed to gain anything from this war, or even be able to credibly claim that it has gained anything. The message not only to Russia, but also to all future potential aggressors, should be aggression does not pay.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

As a fair few T-72 crew are finding out, when someone gets through your armour, your fuel isn't what you need to worry about when you are stacking ammo in every place it can fit.

Exactly. Insofar as early M4s had an issue with catching fire (I gather they were really not any worse than average to begin with) it was all to do with ammo storage. Once they introduced wet storage, the late model Shermans became one of the least fire-prone tanks of the war, diesel and gasoline variants alike.

[danfrodo]

Thanks all for the excellent posts.  Grigb is on a roll!  Lots of good, thoughtful discussion.  On the most pressing issue being discussed, I will only say that I am pro-sherman .  Love those tanks, especially the curvy all-casting ones.  Good looking and versatile.  Nothing that 75mm gun vs some nasty MG42 in a building.  Gosh, sounds like I gotta finish my CMBS campaign and get back to the western front.

Markos on artillery, once again.  Solid post summarizing where we are and the bigger need for ammo for the MLRS systems than getting more MLRS right now. He mentions the night vision gear we are sending, which I am sure most of you already heard.  I hope that can be a difference maker in getting some RU outposts outflanked and running away.  But it's June, and the nights are short, so only so much opportunity.  

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/15/2104377/-Ukraine-Update-Today-s-new-weapons-announcements-are-far-more-significant-than-critics-think

 

[Huba]

Russia has taken some American POWs, and guess that they want to do with them: