How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Precedence? If Leo 2's are send, Leo1's won't be a problem at all. But it will still be Germany that will have made the decision to send tanks to Ukraine. Spanish Leo 2's (all 10 of them...) or a couple of hundred Leo 1's (are that many available in the German depots?). 

What do you exactly mean with in form of swaps?

Poland has 230 PT-91s, we'd give those away in a blink if there were replacements ready - but without, it would leave our whole army with a total of 250 tanks, which is not acceptable. We already sent 1/3 of active fleet in form of T-72s.Some lend-lease M1s would be great, I imagine our gov (or UA) paying for them, but those would have to come from US reserves and be delivered right now.

Some other countries might also be willing to participate in similar schemes (ROK, Cyprus for example).

Edit: and for the first part, AFAIK there are no practical numbers of Leo2 available anywhere. Leo1s though are stored by RM and there was supposedly 100+ of those, with hundreds more in service of Greece if those can be accessed. If we were to get serious about rearming UA with western AFV, we have to ask Uncle Sam.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Huba

[Ultradave]

13 hours ago, fireship4 said:

Perhaps you are thinking of Nietzsche's sister, who according to popular wisdom (apparently via translators and editors of his works in the 1950s) made his work more amenable to nazi ideology - though this is disputed.

 

Those 'arbitrary' numbers are in many cases much easier to divide into common fractions.  What is quater past the hour on a decimal clock?

Standard weights which defined both systems had to be taken out and compared with a local copy, and these changed over time.  Metric has some nice constants built into it, such as 1kg of water taking up 1 litre of volume, but I would guess the problem might have been more about easy convertibility, the simplicity of base 10 being used across the whole system without regard to application, and which system was ascendant at the time.

More recently metric standards were converted to being defined by physical constants, like the distance it takes light to travel in a certain time, and I believe imperial standards are defined as multiples of metric standards.

Advocates exist for conversion to base 12 numbering systems (dozenal or something).

This is one "advantage" of being a nuclear engineer. I am pretty much bilingual in unit systems. All the physics I learned was early on Imperial, but when getting into nuclear/atomic physics, then metric. Heat transfer, thermodynamics an fluids mechanics were always taught in Imperial units. Radiation effects, health physics are always in metric/SI. As far as I know there are no Imperial units for that, at least not that are used by anyone. The odd thing about that is that there are "metric" units for radiation dose/exposure like rem, millirem, etc, which is what I am more used to, spending my career associated with the Navy Nuclear Program, and then there are SI units, Seiverts, Grays, etc. Both are based on the same base quantities but at different levels. (ergs/g). So for example you average yearly background dose is 300 millirem, or 3 milli Seiverts.  (which I don't care for because it makes it sound psychologically like you are allowed much less radiation    ) Had to become more fluent in SI radiation units when I went to England to help with their submarine program for a few years.

Dave

[Aragorn2002]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

Poland has 230 PT-91s, we'd give those away in a blink if there were replacements ready - but without, it would leave our whole army with a total of 250 tanks, which is not acceptable. We already sent 1/3 of active fleet in form of T-72s.Some lend-lease M1s would be great, I imagine our gov (or UA) paying for them, but those would have to come from US reserves and be delivered right now.

Some other countries might also be willing to participate in similar schemes (ROK, Cyprus for example).

Edit: and for the first part, AFAIK there are no practical numbers of Leo2 available anywhere. Leo1s though are stored by RM and there was supposedly 100+ of those, with hundreds more in service of Greece if those can be accessed. If we were to get serious about rearming UA with western AFV, we have to ask Uncle Sam.

It's very unlikely Poland, being part of the NATO, will have need for those 230 Pt-91's. And the Ukraine needs them badly and can use them without much training. Logistics won't be a problem either. Perhaps Poland hopes to profit from the situation militarily and to swop it's older tanks against M1's and Leo 2's for a bargain price, but for me this is at least as strange as the German behaviour. Your country can actually help Ukraine and within a couple of weeks instead of months.

If at the same time Germany and Greece would send those Leo 1's and Marders, plus all the other weapons still in the pipeline from the US and NATO, Ukraine's military position would be strengthened significantly, without too much risk for NATO. I'm not an optimist by nature and I fear Ukraine might not be able to fight on without some drastic measures from NATO.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It's very unlikely Poland, being part of the NATO, will have need for those 230 Pt-91's. And the Ukraine needs them badly and can use them without much training. Logistics won't be a problem either. Perhaps Poland hopes to profit from the situation militarily and to swope it's older tanks against M1's and Leo 2's for a bargain price, but for me this is at least as strange as the German behaviour.

If there's one European NATO country that might need it's tanks soon, it's definitely Poland. Striping active units of equipment means no continuity of training (and basically of existence) of those units, this can't be allowed, not in the frontier country.

We already signed a contract for new M1s that we are paying market price for, but those will be delivered around 2025. TBH the allegation that Poland wants to somehow profiteer out of Ukraine's predicament is quite insulting.

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Huba

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

If there's one European NATO country that might need it's tanks soon, it's definitely Poland. Striping active units of equipment means no continuity of training (and basically of existence) of those units, this can't be allowed, not in the frontier country.

 

It's a hard choice, I admit. But Poland has the might of NATO behind it. 

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

We already signed a contract for new M1s that we are paying market price for, but those will be delivered around 2025. TBH the allegation that Poland wants to somehow profiteer out of Ukraine's predicament is quite insulting.

 

But given the Polish attitude towards the EU/NATO of the past years not completely unthinkable.

[poesel]

First, I would like everyone participating in this discussion to add his country to his profile.
Its fun to guess but it would be more useful to understand the - literal - standpoint of everyone.

11 hours ago, dan/california said:

Nato just needs new production lines for artillery shells, and actual artillery pieces, GMLRS too.

I happen to have some first hand experience with that. It would need about two years to create such a line from the decision to start until you have the first shell in your hand. That is IMHO a good averaged best case scenario where will & money are available in abundance. Realistically more likely 6 years.

Also an educated guess is that such a line, without paralleling, cranks out a shell in 2-3 minutes. Thats about 500 shells a day with 3 shifts without breakdowns or maintenance and a perfectly working supply chain.

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

Striping active units of equipment means no continuity of training (and basically of existence) of those units, this can't be allowed, not in the frontier country.

Then why did Poland insist on Leo2 A7s instead of available A4s?

[chuckdyke]

20 minutes ago, Huba said:

TBH the allegation that Poland wants to somehow profiteer out of Ukraine's predicament is quite insulting.

They were not in the EU for a long time and already the words of decadent Western Europe came out. TBH Europe has always been a Germanic West, a Latin South and a Slavic East. It is not politically correct to mention it, but it is true. The world also has an alliance of English speaking countries, it goes a little deeper than NATO. 

[Beleg85]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

But given the Polish attitude towards the EU/NATO of the past years not completely unthinkable.

EU is not NATO, the latter is cornerstone of security and frankly Central Euopean nations (Balts + Poles) are the most "NATO-esque" states in whole alliance.

BTW. support for European Union is also high, just current government like to play internal populistic games in order to score those 2-5% that lacks for majority. Paradoxially, if PiS have secured better position inside country his anti-EU rhetoric would be much milder. Unfortunate, but far from Hungary stance.

 

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, poesel said:

First, I would like everyone participating in this discussion to add his country to his profile.
Its fun to guess but it would be more useful to understand the - literal - standpoint of everyone.

I happen to have some first hand experience with that. It would need about two years to create such a line from the decision to start until you have the first shell in your hand. That is IMHO a good averaged best case scenario where will & money are available in abundance. Realistically more likely 6 years.

Also an educated guess is that such a line, without paralleling, cranks out a shell in 2-3 minutes. Thats about 500 shells a day with 3 shifts without breakdowns or maintenance and a perfectly working supply chain.

Then why did Poland insist on Leo2 A7s instead of available A4s?

It did not, it was claimed by DE side, like many other not neccessarrily true things. And could you point me to those available 2A4s? Switzerland is not willing to share theirs, Spanish are few and in horrible condition, Bundeswehr doesn't have any to spare. Nobody release any information to really make up one's mind what this whole talk about Germany resupplying Poland with tanks was about, but it didn't make sense at any point. Unless DE thought we'll take Leo1s - the only type available in numbers, but that would be the crappiest deal ever. Or accepted the deal like Czechia got - for all their T72 types they got a company worth of 2A4 and had to buy 30+ more 2A7s for cash. Thank you very much, we'd better get M1s.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Huba

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

They were not in the EU for a long time and already the words of decadent Western Europe came out. TBH Europe has always been a Germanic West, a Latin South and a Slavic East. It is not politically correct to mention it, but it is true. The world also has an alliance of English speaking countries, it goes a little deeper than NATO. 

Apart from that Poland recieves by far the most money from the EU and has in the past been quite shameless in demanding and obtaining subsidies. I don't mean to insult individual Polish people, but for me Poland is one of the biggest threats of the future for the unity of the EU.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Apart from that Poland recieves by far the most money from the EU and has in the past been quite shameless in demanding and obtaining subsidies. I don't mean to insult individual Polish people, but for me Poland is one of the biggest threats of the future for the unity of the EU.

The money sharing mechanism in EU is beneficial to the whole organization - Poland buys Western crap for that money mostly. Could we please stop this BS and get back to Ukraine?

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, Huba said:

The money sharing mechanism in EU is beneficial to the whole organization - Poland buys Western crap for that money mostly. Could we please stop this BS and get back to Ukraine?

Western crap? Talking about BS. That EU money was and is used to modernize the Polish economy, industry, road system, military and such. You're more Polish than you seem to think. But indeed, let's stop this BS.

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

They were not in the EU for a long time and already the words of decadent Western Europe came out. TBH Europe has always been a Germanic West, a Latin South and a Slavic East. It is not politically correct to mention it, but it is true. The world also has an alliance of English speaking countries, it goes a little deeper than NATO

True to some extent. The problem arises when you scruitny it closer. Poland and lot of Central Euope was also Latin by culture and gravitated toward West much more than toward Orthodox East. Germanic/Slavic distinction are frankly no more useful in historical inquiry and were rather creation of XIX-century taxonomies. If you look at sources from XV, XVI or XVII cent very different picture of Europe emerges.

Also narration of "decadent West" are quite popular in the West, too.

[Butschi]

5 hours ago, fireship4 said:

Either they should be helped or not, either it is right or not.  Saying they are not grateful enough suggests it isn't being done for the right reason in the first place, or that those reasons are too lightly held.

5 hours ago, fireship4 said:

Asking them to be grateful... it's in poor taste.

IMO, there is a difference between asking s.o. to be grateful and expecting it. If I help someone I don't say: "I helped you, now say thank you!". But like most human beings I do expect some form of gratitude even if it's just a nod or a smile. We work like that. What I don't expect to happen is being instulted for not having helped more or faster even if that was true. Doesn't mean that can't be brought up as constructive criticism in a polite way and in addition. You may like it or not and an insult might help your ego but it will not further your cause, period.

And to turn your point around, who cares for what reason someone helps as long as the result is the same? Do you honestly think the US and UK are sending all those weapons just because it is the right thing to do? Of course, geopolitical and economical reason play a roll, too, not to mention upcoming elections. Leaves a mildly bitter taste but in the end what counts here is the result.

56 minutes ago, Huba said:

TBH the allegation that Poland wants to somehow profiteer out of Ukraine's predicament is quite insulting.

As @Aragorn2002 said, it also doesn't sound too unrealistic. You rightly criticised Scholz more than once but the Polish government also didn't play entirely fair during the last months. Whatever, as I said above, we all have ulterior motives, that's a (sad) fact of life. Maybe we should stop bickering about it, in the long run only the populists and Putin profit from that.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Butschi
Typos

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Poland and lot of Central Euope was also Latin by culture

Yes, Napoleons creation the Grand Duchy of Warsaw. The tragedy of Poland they don't always bet on the winning horse. 

[LongLeftFlank]

I will take the ring to Mordor!

 

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

IMO, there is a difference between asking s.o. to be greatful and expecting it. If I help someone I don't say: "I helped you, now say thank you!". But like most human beings I do expect some form of gratitude even if it's just a nod or a smile. We work like that. What I don't expect to happen is being instulted for not having help more or faster even if that was true. Doesn't mean that can't be brought up as constructive criticism in a polite way and in addition. You may like it or not and an insult might help your ego but it will not further your cause, period.

And to turn your point around, who cares for what reason someone helps as long as the result is the same? Do you honestly think the US and UK are sending all those weapons just because it is the right thing to do? Of course, geopolitical and economical reason play a roll, too, not to mention upcoming elections. Leaves a mildly bitter taste but in the end what counts here is the result.

As @Aragorn2002 said, it also doesn't sound too unrealistic. You rightly criticised Scholz more than once but the Polish government also didn't play entirely fair during the last months. Whatever, as I said above, we all have ulterior motives, that's a (sad) fact of life. Maybe we should stop bickering about it, in the long run only the populists and Putin profit from that.

Well said! +1

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I will take the ring to Mordor!

 

 

 

LOL

Yeah.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Butschi]

22 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

EU is not NATO

This is often emphasized when convenient but not entirely true. It's true that NATO members are not all EU members and vice versa but apart from that, the distinction is less clear. Even the European Commision often talks about NATO as if it was some military extension of the EU. And for many EU countries it is, in fact.

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

And for many EU countries it is, in fact.

NATO is the reason the EU doesn't have a standing army. I think it will change in the future. NATO is also the reason the US doesn't have a West European style of a social safety net. But back to support the Ukraine we all can't afford a Russian victory. 

[Ts4EVER]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

 NATO is also the reason the US doesn't have a West European style of a social safety net.

Now that is just nonsense. Even with the military expenditures, the US would have the ressources for that, easily. The political will / ideology is just not there.

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Yes, Napoleons creation the Grand Duchy of Warsaw. The tragedy of Poland they don't always bet on the winning horse. 

We (or rather "they", as people living 3 cent. ago were quite different) rarely had any other options, frankly.

What I mean here is that from historian's perspective, those broad generalizations of "Slavic/Germanic civilizations" magically stuck in time are often very cheap ones when you scrutinize them more carefully. The "backwardness" of Central Europe (from western perspective) was usually an effect of direct, violent actions of neighour empires like ever-imperial Russia, militaristic Prussia/Germany or Ottoman Turkey for southern part of the region. Not something innate for being "slavic", Germanic or so on. Not to mention there were also many smaller nations that you cannot put in those boxes, like Balts, western Slavonics in more modern prussia (still ticking in XVI cent. areas of Saxony), Finns and so on.

 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Ts4EVER said:

The political will / ideology is just not there.

Only one election away for $760 Billion you could have free medical care and free education for all. You would still hhave the firepower to check every nation on earth.

[Beleg85]

12 minutes ago, Butschi said:

This is often emphasized when convenient but not entirely true. It's true that NATO members are not all EU members and vice versa but apart from that, the distinction is less clear. Even the European Commision often talks about NATO as if it was some military extension of the EU. And for many EU countries it is, in fact.

Yes, but this was put in the context of Poles being anti- EU/NATO (which is absurd).