How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

47 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

that hole in one video - that looks like civilians getting in.  At 0:05 is that a woman with long dark hair? I don't see any webbing or weapons to suggest "russian soldiers".

Definitely a soldier.  He has his right leg wrapped in green plastic.  He's seen falling out of the car as it goes backwards and is shown (presumably) dead at the very end of the video.

Steve

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Putin is trying for Gröfaz now, I'm sure that's going to go well....

Das war ein Befääähl! Der Angriff der Gruppe Steiner war ein Befääähl! Wer sind Sie, dass Sie es wagen, sich meinen Befääählen zu widersetzen? 

Bruno Ganz as a certain GröFaZ in "Der Untergang"

Edited April 29, 2022 by DesertFox

[OldSarge]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3014131/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing-april-28-2022/

 

The Pentagon press brief from yesterday. Some interesting points

1. They are estimating 92 operational BTG fighting in the East and South. Though the briefer wasn't prepared to discuss the actual condition of these units.
2. 60% of the promised M777 are in Ukraine now.
3. UA soldiers are receiving training on the Q-64 mobile radar and M-113 APC.
4. While the RA has made improvements to their previous logistics & sustainment issues there are still apparent problems

Edited April 29, 2022 by OldSarge

[sross112]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The drills and evolution of a well trained infantry unit in urban combat are quite interesting. But the enormous operational and even strategic import of that video is good Russian infantry is taking losses in Mariupol sixty something days into this war when the Russians need them DESPERATELY, in every other sector. That is an enormous success for the Ukrainians, almost impossible to overstate.

There have been references to the Russian Naval Infantry in the video being well trained and good infantry. Personally I wouldn't elevate it to that level. Better is more applicable. Still not really up to par by western standards, but much better than the conscripts in other videos.

Whole column moving in single file from one point of cover to the next across an uncontrolled avenue. No spacing to speak of. No troops moved into position for covering fire or support. Once their man was hit they tried to throw some smoke but again, no serious suppressive fire towards enemy positions is seen or heard when trying to move the wounded. Didn't look like they had any good idea of how to move a casualty especially when there were two of them trying. As others pointed out, no sign of buddy aid attempts. 

Compared to the UA units they are in opposition to in Mariupol it is a very stark contrast. So better than what we usually see but still not very good all in all. Several videos out of there of the UA soldiers doing a much more professional job in their fire and movement.

On a side note, I think the thing I find the most amazing about the defenders of Mariupol is that we are still seeing videos of them hunting the bad guys. They still maintain enough freedom of movement to actually go after the invaders and are not just sitting there in the Azovstal facility completely on defense. That right there is a stark contrast in morale and fighting spirit compared to what we hear about the RA units around the front. Seems to be the norm for the UA forces but is more impressive given their situation and the constant hell of urban warfare for over 2 months. 

The Ukrainian soldiers are seriously amazing. If I ever needed my flank covered by another nation's troops they would be near the top of the list. The people of Ukraine have shown the world what greatness is. 

[Battlefront.com]

Whenever you see someone saying that the Russians are going to learn from their mistakes and make the war harder on Ukraine, please present to them Exhibit A for the counter argument:

 

[Combatintman]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Whenever you see someone saying that the Russians are going to learn from their mistakes and make the war harder on Ukraine, please present to them Exhibit A for the counter argument:

 

Christ on a bike ... that is truly shocking.  If they'd bothered with cam nets they'd all fit under the same one.

[Combatintman]

2 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Optimistic twitter thread from Dr Mike Martin. Anyone know anything about who he is as to his credentials as a believable analyst?

Executive summary - Russian offensive in the east has fizzled and will likely culminate in 2-4 weeks, followed by collapse

 

 

The likes of Steve, @The_Captand I have been saying same for weeks - he's just nicking our stuff Doctors eh ... what do they know 

[dan/california]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/opinion/russia-ukraine-biden-aid.html

NYT coming around too. It is sinking in everywhere that the Russians don't have some secret second army that actually knows what it is doing.

[Maquisard manqué]

12 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Christ on a bike ... that is truly shocking.  If they'd bothered with cam nets they'd all fit under the same one.

What do you mean? It’s perfect parade-ground parallel parking. 

[akd]

Parade plan:

 

[Maquisard manqué]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Definitely a soldier.  He has his right leg wrapped in green plastic.  He's seen falling out of the car as it goes backwards and is shown (presumably) dead at the very end of the video.

Steve

The 3rd video shows the aftermath and the car occupants getting out - or trying to. They are all in camouflage fatigues and boots as far as I can tell. Possibly some unseen and left in the car though.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

That video is an end piece from a longer cut. The longer cut shows quite clearly that there are no civilians involved.

Ahah I see it now thank you. 

[Battlefront.com]

Supposedly the shootout was over looting.  Burayats did the fighting so they didn't think they needed to share anything with the Chechens.

 

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

Parade plan:

 

OK, everybody join in with me... TB2 strike on the T-14s just as they are passing the reviewing stand... ah, that was nice, wasn't it?

Anyway, disrupting Russia's Maysturbation Parade would probably bring out the nukes if anything would, so let's hope they get their little fantasy day off and then get this finished by the end of May.

Steve

[benpark]

Most of these destroyed/abandoned Russian tanks must have advanced to at least where they now molder within the photographs and videos we are seeing - nearly every video has Ukrainian civilians and/or military personnel surrounding them. That leads one to think about the number of retreats or counter-attacks there have been over the course of this offensive to make so many "trophy" photographs and videos.

[Kinophile]

ref NYT paywalls - if you clear your cache, cookies etc you can usually access.

Failing that, in Chrome, when a pages loads I often get a notification to view in simple mode. This usually lets me read unobstructed. 

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Christ on a bike ... that is truly shocking.  If they'd bothered with cam nets they'd all fit under the same one.

Speaking of fitting under...

 

[Kinophile]

Calling back to @Haiduk's post from a UKR soldier earlier, where he describes RUS SOF/infantry actively hunting for ATGM teams. Obviously this is not the first instance here but it's confirmation.

Edited April 29, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

@Haiduk @akd @sburke

Twitter

[Kinophile]

Russia using older stock missiles...

 

 

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Calling back to @Haiduk's post from a UKR soldier earlier, where he describes RUS SOF/infantry actively hunting for ATGM teams. Obviously this is not the first instance here but it's confirmation.

Here another one, such vehiciles were in 93rd mech.brigade since 2019

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk @akd @sburke

Twitter

Sburke counts only high-ranked officers not less than mayor :). I posted yesterday all appropriate officers from this list 

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Russia using older stock missiles...

 

 

Well, that might explain some of the wide misses that have been noted.  IIRC back in those days guidance was all based on estimated times for it to get from A to B.  The missile would stay on a fixed compass heading for that amount of time then change paths to another heading for another predesignated amount of time.  Time per leg could be adjusted inflight by comparing actual airspeed to what was used in the calculation, either decreasing or increasing as needed.  If this sounds pretty iffy to you... correct!  This is why they tried to fly these things in straight lines and as few as possible.

At least that's how I remember this old stuff.

Steve

[DesertFox]

No more TikTok...

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Optimistic twitter thread from Dr Mike Martin. Anyone know anything about who he is as to his credentials as a believable analyst?

Executive summary - Russian offensive in the east has fizzled and will likely culminate in 2-4 weeks, followed by collapse

Can't argue with the good doctor

I hope after the war is over we're going to get some answers about what really happened at the planning level for this offensive.  Normally you get that sort of thing from both sides, but between frontline casualties and heart attacks there might not be anybody left who can tell us what happened.  There's obviously very few people who know anything at any given time.

The question I want an answer to is what was the real scope of the operation?  As we discussed just before it kicked off, there were various options available to them and it's still not clear which one they started with.  What's clear is what they've wound up with.  Did they really try to do a deep envelopment from north and south, then switched to north only when that failed?  Or was all the activity along the line just to tie up Ukrainian forces (primary) and possibly achieve an unexpected breakthrough (secondary)?  I really can't tell, but it seems like the lack of forces built up in the south indicates the original intent was north only from the start.

Whatever the case might be, this offensive won't last much longer.

Steve