How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

At the start of the invasion, it was stated that the brigade had at least 2 companies of T-80BV and BVM (sorry I can't find the source. Maybe the Order of Battle channel on youtube? )

@akd that's the video I talked about :

 

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Taranis

[Huba]

52 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Yes exactly.

It is even developed to meet road traffic standards (like many NATO vehicles now).

To complete my previous position, another major advantage is that a very experienced crew (see an officer commanding the vehicle, it is a sergeant who normally commands such a vehicle) may be able to fire on their own in complete autonomy without the need for a command vehicle because it has its own firing computer that you can initialising yourself (afterwards you have to know how to do it). The vehicle by himself calculate the trajectory etc. It's a very, very rare practice (at least when I was still in the army) but it's quite possible.

The most common was that a command vehicle received the firing orders, sent them directly to our computer by crypted radio wave and you just had to press a button to aim it, load it (semi-automatic loading), add the propellant charge, close the bolt (also semi-automatic) and fire (no shell casing) ! To packup the barrel it's almost the same principle, it was enough to press a button (there are things to be careful or to close but the vehicle does not pack up with the force of the arms or with a crank ). 

The gun also had the capacity to make direct fire (at view) but as I stated before it's not the best thing since it's "fragile" but could be good against bunker and fortified positions.

About the inertial navigation system it is the same that is used on Rafale or nuclear submarine (that's a thing )

So a follow up question - in your opinion, how long would it take for a team of trained artillerymen to familiarize themselves with CAESAR good enough to use it competently on the battlefield? I'm thinking of a level of a gun crew more then complete battalion.

[Hapless]

22 minutes ago, JonS said:

That's all well and good this month, and next, but as soon as peace breaks out that approach is untenable. If your war goal is to turn UKR into a landlocked country it has to survive the peace, which means colouring the coast from Kherson to Odessa red.

I guess I'm thinking more in terms of a ceasefire leading to a static front, rather than anything like peace. If nothing else, I don't think the Ukrainians would accept it.

Actually getting to Odessa seems very unlikely, while I would expect at least some kind of deniability from something like mines that would be workable during a period of peace.

[Huba]

Looks like Lozove is taken, Ukrainians slowly retreating towards forests north of Severskyi Donets (I reccommend Facebook posts by Ukrainian General Staff, not the tweets, if you have time)

 

[dan/california]

Will be looking for more confirmation on this one. This would essentially almost decapitate the Russian forces in Kherson if true.

[Taranis]

29 minutes ago, Huba said:

So a follow up question - in your opinion, how long would it take for a team of trained artillerymen to familiarize themselves with CAESAR good enough to use it competently on the battlefield? I'm thinking of a level of a gun crew more then complete battalion.

It's quite difficult to answer. It depends on the doctrine that is used. Was the crew already gunners? Is the commander comfortable with technology (telephones, computers etc. It's silly but it's a plus)?

From my point of view and provided that the training is exclusively on the use of the vehicle, I would say 2 days for the loaders, 1 week for the "pointer" (I don't really know the term in English, the one that aims), 1 week also for the driver, 2 to 3 weeks for the commander. What can also come into play is, does the pilot also have to know the hydraulic system? Does the pointer have to know how to use the onboard computer (in case the commander is killed?). What makes a team strong is its ability for each member to be autonomous and to be able to replace one or the other of the crew.
Once the training is done, I would say that a crew gains enough cohesion and organization after 1 week.
Afterwards, as in Combat Mission (the manual says it so well), there is everything in the army, good soldiers and less good ones:/
What may be disconcerting for an unaccustomed crew is this high-tech side that could destabilize someone who is used to using a simple, very rustic mortar. You only need one of the member to know well the vehicle (in case of bug) since most components are semi-automatic. Like any vehicle, if it's not used well, you could say it sucks, but one in the right hands is really good.

For comparison, my NCO artillery formation was 6 month. In 6 month, I had sport, learned basic artillery principles, using .50mm MG, using 120mm RTF-1 mortar, using 155mm TRF-1 towed gun, using 155mm CAESAR, basic maintenance of vehicles like TRM-2000 and TRM-10000 (artillery tractor), how orienting a gun (relative to the north) and learning how to command all those guns and the maintenance for them etc.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Taranis

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Taranis said:

It's quite difficult to answer. It depends on the doctrine that is used. Was the crew already gunners? Is the commander comfortable with technology (telephones, computers etc. It's silly but it's a plus)?

From my point of view and provided that the training is exclusively on the use of the vehicle, I would say 2 days for the loaders, 1 week for the "pointer" (I don't really know the term in English, the one that aims), 1 week also for the driver, 2 to 3 weeks for the commander. What can also come into play is, does the pilot also have to know the hydraulic system? Does the pointer have to know how to use the onboard computer (in case the commander is killed?). What makes a team strong is its ability for each member to be autonomous and to be able to replace one or the other of the crew.
Once the training is done, I would say that a crew gains enough cohesion and organization after 1 week.
Afterwards, as in Combat Mission (the manual says it so well), there is everything in the army, good soldiers and less good ones:/
What may be disconcerting for an unaccustomed crew is this high-tech side that could destabilize someone who is used to using a simple, very rustic mortar. You only need one of the member to know well the vehicle (in case of bug) since most components are semi-automatic. Like any vehicle, if it's not used well, you could say it sucks, but one in the right hands is really bad.

For comparison, my NCO artillery formation was 6 month. In 6 month, I had sport, learned basic artillery principles, using .50mm MG, using 120mm RTF-1 mortar, using 155mm TRF-1 towed gun, using 155mm CAESAR, basic maintenance of vehicles like TRM-2000 and TRM-10000 (artillery tractor), how orienting a gun (relative to the north) and learning how to command all those guns and the maintenance for them etc.

Thank you very much, it is really great to get an insight from somebody who knows what he's talking about! Let's hope then that CAESARs follow american towed guns ASAP, as it looks like NATO artillery is really needed now.

 

 

[Haiduk]

Summary about last two days  of most hot place - Izium area.

Many of Russian BTGs, concentrated on spearhead are BTG, based on tank battalions. But instead one "big steam roller push", Russians each day are attacking with several "small steam rollers" in different directions, trying to penetrate our defense. Sometime our troops conduct own counter-attacks, so as told in twitter one soldier, terrain in many places covered with knoked out and abandoned vehicles of both sides. Russians also, understanding hazard of UKR mobile AT-teams, inolved more SOF and recon forces for hunting on them. Especially Russians actively conduct own search in night time. 

Most fierce fights were on eastern bank of Oskil river. Three days ago Russians captured Lozove village and attacked our troops in neighbour villages Rubtsi and Yatskivka. Russians use own standart tactic of "burned earth". They just hammered villages with artillery and MLRS, then tanks attack and shot out remained houses, if they encountered strong resistance, they withdraw and artillery strike the village again. So, the same procedure Russians used on latter two villages. As result they could push off our troops from ruines of Rubtsi, Yatskivka also burns, but situation there still unclear.

Also Russian conducted attacks on Dovhen'ke village - the key to Izium - Sloviansk road, but without success

Ukrainian civil volunteer Roman Donik, which supply 92ns and 93rd brigades wrote about clashes in area south from Izium. He pointed Russian aviation increased quantity of sorties, though for yesterday this also increased their losses. Donik claimed many shot down manned aerial targets, but visually confirmed only two-seats jet. Also he described two clashes - first was probably 2-3 days ago in unpointed place. Russians atatcked with company tactical group of 6 tanks and 10 BMPs after three hours of fight they withdrew having losses 3 tanks and 1 BMP. Today he described Russian attack of presumably 64th motor-rifle brigade on positions of 93rd brigade near Virnopillia village with the same force - comany tactical groop - 10 light armor and tanks. Result - enemy repelled, 3 tanks hit/abandoned, 3 light armor destroyed (I think, 1 BTR and 2 trucks more correctly if his photos corresponded to this episode) - akd alredy posted these photos

Also some of OSINT source issued photos of Russian losses in Brazhivka next to east from Virmopillia - about dozen of armor for small village. But our says Russians are throw new and new tanks in the battle instead burned, so UKR troops forced to withdraw from village to willage after 1-2 days of fight, despite Russians pay high price for own achievments

  

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

25 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Will be looking for more confirmation on this one. This would essentially almost decapitate the Russian forces in Kherson if true.

dang, gonna be a bunch of new names on the list if true

Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer

Russian forward C&C was destroyed today in #Kherson region by our artillery. Intel suggests there were as many as 50?! senior and junior officers there at the time. Maybe even a general if we are that lucky, and the Russians are that stupid.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Summary about last two of most hot place - Izium area.

Many of Russian BTGs, concentrated on spearhead are BTG, based on tank battalions. But instead one "big steam roller push", Russians each day are attacking with several "small steam rollers" in different directions, trying to penetrate our defense. Sometime our troops conduct own counter-attacks, so as told in twitter one soldier, terrain in many places covered with knoked out and abandoned vehicles of both sides. Russians also, understanding hazard of UKR mobile AT-teams, inolved more SOF and recon forces for hunting on them. Especially Russians actively conduct own search in night time. 

Most fierce fights were on estern bank of Oskil river. Three days ago Russians captured Lozove village and attacked our troops in neigbour villages Rubtsi and Yatskivka. Russians use own standart tactic of "burned earth". They just hammered villages with artillery and MLRS, then tanks attack and shot our remained houses, if they encountered strong resistance, they withdraw and artillery strike the village again. So, the same procedure Russians used on latter two villages. As result they could push off our troops from ruines of Rubtsi, Yatskivka also burns, but situation there still unclear.

Also Russian conducted attacks on Dovhen'ke village - the key to Izium - Sloviansk road, but without success

Ukrainian civil volunteer Roman Donik, which supply 92ns and 93rd brigades wrote about clashes in area south from Izium. He pointed Russian aviation increased quantity of sorties, though for yesterday this also increased their losses. Donik claimed many shot down manned aerial targets, but visually confirmed only two-seats jet. Also he described two clashes - first was probably 2-3 days ago in unpointed place. Russians atatcked with company tactical group of 6 tanks and 10 BMPs after three hours of fight they withdrew having losses 3 tanks and 1 BMP. Today he described Russian attack of presumably 64th motor-rifle brigade on positions of 93rd brigade near Virnopillia village with the same force - comany tactical groop - 10 light armor and tanks. Result - enemy repelled, 3 tanks hit/abandoned, 3 light armor destroyed (I think, 1 BTR and 2 trucks more correctly if his photos corresponded to this episode) - akd alredy posted these photos

Also some of OSINT source issued photos of Russian losses in Brazhivka next to east from Virmopillia - about dozen of armor for small village. But our says Russians are throw new and new tanks in the battle instead burned, so UKR troops forced to withdraw from village to willage after 1-2 days of fight, despite Russians pay high price for own achievments

  

 

If you can keep making them pay a battle group for every little crossroads village it will work out just fine!

We know what costs Ukraine to hold in a fight like this, writing Congressman multiple times per week to send more help.

Glory to Ukraine! Napalm to the Russian Bas*&%$#^&!

[Taranis]

In a trench, near Avdiïvka, in the Donetsk oblast, on April 21, 2022. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR "LE MONDE"

Ukrainian soldier in a trench, near Avdiïvka, in the Donetsk oblast, on April 21, 2022. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR "LE MONDE"

Supply point for Ukrainian soldiers with food, near Avdiïvka, in the Donetsk oblast, on April 21, 2022. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR "LE MONDE"

 

In an underground bunker, Ukrainian soldiers observe enemy positions, near Avdiïvka, in the Donetsk oblast, on April 21, 2022. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR "LE MONDE"

A Ukrainian soldier observes Russian positions, near Avdiïvka, in the Donetsk oblast, on April 21, 2022. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR "LE MONDE"

And now it's time for a little russian joke :
"Russia gives a toll of twenty-seven missing and one dead in the sinking of the cruiser "Moskva"
Russia recognizes for the first time losses in the sinking of the cruiser Moskva. One sailor died and 27 others are still missing after the shipwreck last week, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

“One serviceman was killed and 27 other crew members are missing,” the ministry was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying that the other 396 people on board had been evacuated.

Russia lost, Thursday, April 14, the most important ship of its Black Sea fleet, deployed as part of the offensive launched against Ukraine since February 24: the cruiser Moskva (“Moscow” in Russian). It was a key ship for his operations: he could coordinate several ships at the same time.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Taranis

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Taranis said:

Sorry if the term I use is not very suitable. What I mean by "fragile" is that in itself, it's not really an armored vehicle.

French doctrine since the Cold War has always been oriented more towards "maneuver and mobility" than towards resistance (heavy armour, etc.). This explains the very mobile and powerful but relatively unarmored vehicles such as the AMX-10RC, the AMX-13/90, EBR, the Tiger helicopter or even the CAESAR.

In fact the vehicle is armored only at the level of the cabin in order to protect the crew. Additional armor kits are available to enhance this crew protection and are easy to install.
However, the gun being semi-automatic, the gun pivoting mechanism (hydraulic system), the storage of the ammunition and propellant charge, the system for locating the gun in space are not protected.

The vehicle is quite light (aerotransportable) and its purpose is really to shoot very far and precisely and then quickly set itself up in a new position. The vehicle is very quick to pack up (1 or 2 minutes for a trained crew). A well trained crew (4 crew at least for keeping the pace) can easily deploying the gun, shooting 2-3 rounds at 40km, pack-up and going away in less than 10 minutes. You don't need to have the traditional orientation phase because the vehicle had is own inertial navigation system and know always where it is and what is the orientation of the gun. To aim, you only need to press a button...

To sum up, shrapnel might be enough to render the artillery piece "non-functional" but will guarantee the protection of the crew (the most important). Repairs will not be too complicated but during this time, the part will not be available (damage to the inertial navigation system would be even more of a problem)

Thank you, very informative.

Highly mobile and very fast setup/breakdown 155s seems right up UKR's street. Coupled with the heavy punch PzHs and the solid towed M777s, you've got a really nasty and flexible artillery arm.

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

Interesting WOTR discussion about the Russia-China relationship. 

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL3dhcm9udGhlcm9ja3MubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M/episode/ZjBlYzQ4NjctMGFhZC00M2VhLWEzZmItYjBlZWY3MTBmZTY0?ep=14

[Kinophile]

Ref Mosckva wounded, I'd lay odds a lot of that is smoke/poisonous particulate inhalation. Nasty stuff. That crew are out for good. 

 

[Taranis]

A firefighter sits on a swing next to a building destroyed by a Russian bomb in Chernihiv, Friday April 22, 2022. EMILIO MORENATTI / AP

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok so this plus the fires is starting to get weird.  Could be one of three things to my mind:

1. Coincidence, but that is starting to strain.

2. Russian false flag setup to justify broader mobilization, but some of this is looking like it is starting to hurt.  Have the Russians spun any of these as foreign attacks?  Nazi Saboteurs?

3. Western political warfare is beginning to kick in and we are seeing the emergence of a supported insurgency in Russia itself, it could be an organic movement or a combination of both. 

Ho boy. Yup, no longer coincidence. UKR SOF have their hand up Russia's arse to the elbow.

@Battlefront.com get your popcorn...

 

[Huba]

22 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Thank you, very informative.

Highly mobile and very fast setup/breakdown 155s seems right up UKR's street. Coupled with the heavy punch PzHs and the solid towed M777s, you've got a really nasty and flexible artillery arm.

 

What I wonder is if all the ammo for this guns (180K of rounds) donated by USA will have to be airlifted from USA, or are there significant stocks pre-positioned in Europe already? I assume that any details are not public domain, but does anybody know how much stuff does US have on this side of the pond these days?

Edit: interesting tweet, in line with what we are discussing here (though its Podolyak and NEXTA, so propaganda concentration might be well above average)

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

I'm assuming NATO ammo is standardized so won't German ammo stocks of 155mm be usable in American howitzers? Would ensure no ammo shortages.

My take from the report on the front is not great, Russian artillery is causing issues for defenders who can't give up territory without causing damage first. Absolutely NATO artillery is needed, I hope everything is flowing now and in motion. Ideally, the entire Ukrainian artillery arm should be transitioned to NATO as much as possible to ensure healthy supply. (Not that ex-soviet stuff gets decommissioned but I'm assuming the NATO stuff is better)

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I'm assuming NATO ammo is standardized so won't German ammo stocks of 155mm be usable in American howitzers? Would ensure no ammo shortages.

My take from the report on the front is not great, Russian artillery is causing issues for defenders who can't give up territory without causing damage first. Absolutely NATO artillery is needed, I hope everything is flowing now and in motion. Ideally, the entire Ukrainian artillery arm should be transitioned to NATO as much as possible to ensure healthy supply. (Not that ex-soviet stuff gets decommissioned but I'm assuming the NATO stuff is better)

Sure it's needed. 152 I suppose is in quite short supply, maybe 122 is more abundand (based on Soviet era artillery stocks in Eastern Europe). I really hope next weapons package finally includes HIMARS.

About my post babove and Podolyak saying that UA is preparing counteroffensive - if UA:

a) has more tanks in line already, as Pentagon claimed yesterday and

b) has less heavy equipment on the frontlines, according to all the reports including Haiduk's

It means that Ukraine has, or soon will have significant reserve of heavy units - as predicted on this forum  They just have to weather the Russian attacks for bit longer, and then...

Edited April 22, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Now we look on east to Rubizhne-Kreminna-Lyman area

Despite the rumors of Russians after capturing Kreminna reached to Zarichchia they actully stood in Dibrova and Tors'ke. There is no confirmation they in Zarichchia. There is unknown either some defense line in this village or Russians didn't advance forward by other reason.

Today this video was issued, when our soldiers on position near Lyman watch how some incendiary ammunition falls probably on Zarichchia area

Russians traditionally started own action against Lyman with rocket shelling of town. The town hospital was hit with Uragan MLRS cluster ammunition 

Russians also launched Tochka-U at other important town on their way to Sloviansk - at the Siversk. The missile was intercepted, but it fragment fell on the town, causing some destructions. 

Situation in Rubizhne still hard, about 2/3 of the city already over Russian and separs control, many buildings of the city is ruined, but elements of 4th fast reaction brigade of National Guard and other units still fight tough. Here they hit Russian armor, hide in the yard of building

Also need to say about Pryvilne area. This is a place, which dominates over Siverskyi Donets river, standing on chalk cliffs. During WWII Germans about half year hold this so-called "Privilne bridgehead" foiling all attempts of Soviet army to take Lysychansk. So this place also can be anothe rstronghold and in our times...

  

[FancyCat]

Thread regarding the loss of the chemical plant due to fire, sabotage is a much more likely reason considering the essential nature of this complex to Russian industry, war and civilian.

https://twitter.com/Spoonamore/status/1517510440598843394?t=AwOU57emZn6uU4leyOGkzQ&s=19

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Now we look on east to Rubizhne-Kreminna-Lyman area

Despite the rumors of Russians after capturing Kreminna reached to Zarichchia they actully stood in Dibrova and Tors'ke. There is no confirmation they in Zarichchia. There is unknown either some defense line in this village or Russians didn't advance forward by other reason.

Today this video was issued, when our soldiers on position near Lyman watch how some incendiary ammunition falls probably on Zarichchia area

Russians traditionally started own action against Lyman with rocket shelling of town. The town hospital was hit with Uragan MLRS cluster ammunition 

Russians also launched Tochka-U at other important town on their way to Sloviansk - at the Siversk. The missile was intercepted, but it fragment fell on the town, causing some destructions. 

Situation in Rubizhne still hard, about 2/3 of the city already over Russian and separs control, many buildings of the city is ruined, but elements of 4th fast reaction brigade of National Guard and other units still fight tough. Here they hit Russian armor, hide in the yard of building

Also need to say about Pryvilne area. This is a place, which dominates over Siverskyi Donets river, standing on chalk cliffs. During WWII Germans about half year hold this so-called "Privilne bridgehead" foiling all attempts of Soviet army to take Lysychansk. So this place also can be anothe rstronghold and in our times...

  

Thank you @Haiduk for those updates and keep them coming! It looks like orcs are getting quite a nice paddling. It is interesting to hear that your AD is capable of shooting down Tochkas that close to the frontline.

[CivE]

5 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Uups...

 

 

Finally, a (minor) topic where my water resources engineering experience may be relevant to this thread. Checking out this dam on google maps, I would say that it would be a poor target for sabotage. It appears to function to maintain local river depth for navigation and for diversion to agriculture. It would have very little flood control function, and would be more likely to be damaged by a flood than to cause one by failing. A quick look around finds several similar structures in the region that would have a higher potential for economic or infrastructure damage if they failed. If this was a target, it was probably a target of opportunity, not choice. Given the background rate of accidental infrastructure failure, I would hesitate to read too much into it.

The unrelated flooding pictured in the tweet, with the church on the hill, appears to be the Desna River in Bryansk, no where near the dam pictured on the Kuban river.

But mostly I registered (after lurking since the CMBO demo) to say thank you to everyone participating in this discussion. For what it's worth, I think the updates, analysis, and debate here are as good or better than anything I'm reading or listening to from professional news outfits and think-tanks. Thank you for being here and doing what you do.

[Combatintman]

58 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Also Russian conducted attacks on Dovhen'ke village - the key to Izium - Sloviansk road, but without success

Dovhenke is certainly useful if you want to motor down the main road into Slovyansk but indirectly.  It sits in dead ground to that road so direct fires onto it are not possible but I see this as either an operation to secure the flanks for anything rolling down the road by denying a safe haven for shoot and scoot ATGM equipped parties or potentially using a covered approach to get into the wooded feature east of the village which does offer LOS onto the road.  That then serves as a jumping off point to clear the woods SE and east.

This area of ground leapt out at me early on when I was doing the terrain analysis as either a potential Named Area of Interest (NAI) or a Target Area of Interest (TAI).  It is not a bad Engagement Area (EA) and sits between a battalion and company-sized defensive position.  If resources permit, the Ukrainians could bottle that road up comfortably with a battalion (see diagrams) and if resources are tighter, it is possibly doable with a company, particularly if supported by a reasonably swept up obstacle plan with some gunnery on priority call.  My instinct for the latter option would be to position the company where the southernmost company astride the road is located in the battalion laydown.

 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

It is interesting to hear that your AD is capable of shooting down Tochkas that close to the frontline.

Actually Tochka-U is old missile and can be relativly easy intercepted even by ground forces AD assets. Our Tochkas are also often intercepеpted by Russian AD.