How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Phantom Captain]

2 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

I mean IRL 

Apparently none of their APS systems are present in Ukraine so I wouldn't expect them to be working on the Armata either.  To me the Armata is like this big sci-fi fantasy vehicle that isn't real.  I'll believe it when I see it.  It sure is fun to pretend though!  

Edited April 19, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[Armorgunner]

Just now, Phantom Captain said:

Apparently none of their APS systems are present in Ukraine so I wouldn't expect them to be working on the Armata either.  To me the Armata is like this big sci-fi fantasy vehicle that isn't real.  I'll believe it when I see it.

Agree, if they don´t even use Arena, it´s probably becouse it´s not working. Other than on propaganda films from RT 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Phantom Captain said:

Apparently none of their APS systems are present in Ukraine so I wouldn't expect them to be working on the Armata either.  To me the Armata is like this big sci-fi fantasy vehicle that isn't real.  I'll believe it when I see it.  It sure is fun to pretend though!  

There were few T-80UM2 with old Drozd APS captured or destroyed by Ukrainians, there were pictures floating around. Nothing meaningful though.

[panzermartin]

I guess night fights are not so dark as I thought. Edit: Flares would be a nice addition to CM

 

On a second thought this doesn't look like Donbas. Looks like footage from Iraq war or something else 

Edited April 19, 2022 by panzermartin

[db_zero]

Don't know if this has already been posted:

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

With a new offensive underway, will the Russian learn from previous mistake and increase the logistical sustainment model?

[Phantom Captain]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

There were few T-80UM2 with old Drozd APS captured or destroyed by Ukrainians, there were pictures floating around. Nothing meaningful though.

Interesting I did not see mention of that!  I thought there was zero record of any working APS system so far.

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

You beat me to it  Here's a twitter thread describing the conference:

 

 

Did he really praise himself for stopping NordStream2? Lol. I mean - lol. Oh boy.

[Armorgunner]

17 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Bloody hell that's a fast rocket. Sorry but CMBS stuff seems a little slow in comparison. Is this the Spanish ATGM?

The Spanish Instalaza C90 given to Ukraine, is a Rocket launcher. Not a ATGM I belive? But I´m certain, this is a German MATADOR rocket launcher.

[db_zero]

4 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

Apparently none of their APS systems are present in Ukraine so I wouldn't expect them to be working on the Armata either.  To me the Armata is like this big sci-fi fantasy vehicle that isn't real.  I'll believe it when I see it.  It sure is fun to pretend though!  

The Armada exists. It does have top attack APS. Whether it works is another question altogether.

I've seen videos where the British Challenger already has a top attack APS system.

The problem with the Armada is the cost. Its much more expensive and maintaining it would also be far more expensive and require a cadre of skilled technicians. The Russian economy can't support the acquisition of a large force of them.

 

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, db_zero said:

One very big difference. The Polish M1s are not actively engaging Russian forces at the moment. Ukrainian M1s would be. 

So Ukraine should give back all the Javelins, NLAWs, PzF3, Matadors, and other weapons that are blowing Russian tanks to pieces now and for the past 7 weeks?

Seriously, I think you fail to recognize that line has already been crossed and is continuing to be crossed even without M1s.

Plus, no M1s will be engaging Russians for maybe 4-6 months best case scenario.  The war should be over by then.

Steve

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Phantom Captain said:

Interesting I did not see mention of that!  I thought there was zero record of any working APS system so far.

No idea if the system was working  It was like 30 years old. I thought it was a first time APS was used on the battlefield, but apparently some T-55ADs were used in Afghanistan in the 80s'. Russians used to be pioneers in many fields, but look at them now...

[Phantom Captain]

Just now, db_zero said:

The Armada exists. It does have top attack APS. Whether it works is another question altogether.

I've seen videos where the British Challenger already has a top attack APS system.

The problem with the Armada is the cost. Its much more expensive and maintaining it would also be far more expensive and require a cadre of skilled technicians. The Russian economy can't support the acquisition of a large force of them.

 

Oh I know it exists.  It's just the last part of your statement really does relegate it to make believe because they will never field it in any numbers and I am hesitant to doubt all it's superior claims at this point.  It's a "paper" Armata, just like everything else RA.  

Again, it's fun to pretend, haha!  

[db_zero]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

There were few T-80UM2 with old Drozd APS captured or destroyed by Ukrainians, there were pictures floating around. Nothing meaningful though.

Pretty costly and has limited arcs of coverage. Seemed to have worked pretty well against RPGs in actual use, but also dangerous to nearby infantry.

That's another disadvantage of many APS systems. Any friendly infantry nearby is at risk.

[db_zero]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So Ukraine should give back all the Javelins, NLAWs, PzF3, Matadors, and other weapons that are blowing Russian tanks to pieces now and for the past 7 weeks?

Seriously, I think you fail to recognize that line has already been crossed and is continuing to be crossed even without M1s.

Plus, no M1s will be engaging Russians for maybe 4-6 months best case scenario.  The war should be over by then.

Steve

As crazy as it sounds there are still lines not to be crossed in the world of geopolitics.

It's weird and doesn't make sense to a lot of people, but it is what it is.

Another factor is Javelins, Matadors, PF3 and Stingers are considered defensively oriented weapons.

Tanks on the other hand are considered offensive weapons.

Edited April 19, 2022 by db_zero

[Armorgunner]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

Pretty costly and has limited arcs of coverage. Seemed to have worked pretty well against RPGs in actual use, but also dangerous to nearby infantry.

That's another disadvantage of many APS systems. Any friendly infantry nearby is at risk.

Shotgun ones like Trophy, is a better APS to use in conjunction with own infantery.

[Battlefront.com]

Armata effectively doesn't exist.  It's been in prototype stage for something like 8 years now.  Every time Russia states it is going to go into production it doesn't.  I don't think it is just a cost thing, though for sure that is a big part of it.  They have the number they need for parades so that's apparently good enough.

Steve

[db_zero]

I have to wonder if the Armada thing was also pumped up by certain segments of the Western world to boost research and spending on weapons.

[Kinophile]

For sure. The two mil-ind complexes (East &West) absolutely feed off and reinforce each other.  No conspiracy required, just the innate nature of capitalism.

 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, db_zero said:

As crazy as it sounds there are still lines not to be crossed in the world of geopolitics.

Sure, and NATO aircraft ending this war in 2 days by laying Russia's invasion force to waste is one of them.  There's a big, thick line there and it has nothing to do with escalating weapons shipments.

What you're doing is drawing a pencil thin line between the current, and growing, array of things destroying Russia (economically as well as militarily) and a particular system that you think has significance.  It is an incremental step, not some massive escalation.  I do not think Russia attaches nearly as much significance to the Abrams as you do.

I think instead of debating me you should read a bunch of articles that detail how your line of thinking in large part how we find ourselves in this war right now.  Putin has always threatened and, until recently, the West has always backed down.  Fat load of good that did anybody.

Steve

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sure, and NATO aircraft ending this war in 2 days by laying Russia's invasion force to waste is one of them.  There's a big, thick line there and it has nothing to do with escalating weapons shipments.

What you're doing is drawing a pencil thin line between the current, and growing, array of things destroying Russia (economically as well as militarily) and a particular system that you think has significance.  It is an incremental step, not some massive escalation.  I do not think Russia attaches nearly as much significance to the Abrams as you do.

I think instead of debating me you should read a bunch of articles that detail how your line of thinking in large part how we find ourselves in this war right now.  Putin has always threatened and, until recently, the West has always backed down.  Fat load of good that did anybody.

Steve

Which is why I am in favor of the NATO lays waste to Russian invasion force bit, but I digress...

[Armorgunner]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sure, and NATO aircraft ending this war in 2 days by laying Russia's invasion force to waste is one of them.  There's a big, thick line there and it has nothing to do with escalating weapons shipments.

What you're doing is drawing a pencil thin line between the current, and growing, array of things destroying Russia (economically as well as militarily) and a particular system that you think has significance.  It is an incremental step, not some massive escalation.  I do not think Russia attaches nearly as much significance to the Abrams as you do.

I think instead of debating me you should read a bunch of articles that detail how your line of thinking in large part how we find ourselves in this war right now.  Putin has always threatened and, until recently, the West has always backed down.  Fat load of good that did anybody.

Steve

Would the Russians have crushed Ukraine in less than a week, of hard fighting. I belive the respect for the Russian army, Would still be strong. But after this? The Russian Bear, became the Russian Lamb. And I do belive, that no one in any western Army, still have the same respect for the Russian Army anymore! 

I mean, even the kontraktnikis (the proffesional soldiers), Was drunk, high, or just deserted their vehicles. Even the so called elite of the Russian armed forces, the VDV. Showed themself, to be of no other use. Than to be blown up, and then move back in bad shape, to safe areas!

But what the Russians showed. Is why it´s so utterly important, to never, ever. Let these Drunks, Junkies, and criminals. Ever to be within your borders! Becouse they do the only thing they can there! Murder Civilians, rape Civilians, get drunk, get high, and die!  

[db_zero]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sure, and NATO aircraft ending this war in 2 days by laying Russia's invasion force to waste is one of them.  There's a big, thick line there and it has nothing to do with escalating weapons shipments.

What you're doing is drawing a pencil thin line between the current, and growing, array of things destroying Russia (economically as well as militarily) and a particular system that you think has significance.  It is an incremental step, not some massive escalation.  I do not think Russia attaches nearly as much significance to the Abrams as you do.

I think instead of debating me you should read a bunch of articles that detail how your line of thinking in large part how we find ourselves in this war right now.  Putin has always threatened and, until recently, the West has always backed down.  Fat load of good that did anybody.

Steve

There is undoubtedly a big debate going on behind the scenes about how much and how far we should go. I agree Putin has threatened and the West has backed down in the past. This time however the West hasn't backed down and is for all intents and purposes an active precipitant in the war. The question is how far and how much to go without provoking a response that once crossed is difficult to back away from.

Unless we actually know what's actually in Putin's head we're all just speculating.

The Korean War escalated into a much larger conflict. In the past like it or not some restraint had to be shown, especially when the parties involved are armed with nukes.

We're going to have to get used to that reality. The post Cold War days when the West could just go in with all guns blazing or hand out whatever weapons we want like candy are over.

 

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Which is why I am in favor of the NATO lays waste to Russian invasion force bit, but I digress...

This is where db_zero and I agree.  There is a line and it is very dangerous to cross it.  Knowing exactly where the line is, of course, is the problem.  But I think it's safe to say direct NATO attacks on Russian forces is absolutely over the line.  Tempting Russia to use nukes is dumb.  Really, really, really dumb.  So NATO attacks on Russian forces is a really dumb.

The difference between sending Leos or Abrams, however, is likely nowhere near the line.  So I don't think it's dumb to provide Ukraine with Abrams.  Just as long as it is understood their chances of being useful in this war is near zero.  The war should be decided long before the first one could practically go into combat.

Steve

 

[riptides]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

.....

Anyway, I'm waiting for Scholz's announcement, let's see what PzH2000 in it's natural habitat can do finally

Supremely and utterly disappointed by the Chancellor's announcement.

One has to wonder now about Germany as leadership player in the EU.

War is on in their neighborhood.

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by riptides

[Der Zeitgeist]

59 minutes ago, Huba said:

You beat me to it  Here's a twitter thread describing the conference:

This is such a f... disgrace. 

Ukrainians should just drive over to Rheinmetall with flatbed trucks and take the stuff.