How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

About the Moskva, I have started to have doubts the Ukrainians hit it with the only Neptune battery they have. They film almost every launch of nlaw or Stugna, why they didnt film this historic moment, (at least the launch , as the taget was miles away). I'm sorry you have trained us like pavlov's dogs with the social media bombardment  

Maybe the boat had maintenance issues like you all imply about soviet machinery and a fire indeed detonated the heavy missile load. 

 

 

 

[Saberwander]

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

About the Moskva, I have started to have doubts the Ukrainians hit it with the only Neptune battery they have. They film almost every launch of nlaw or Stugna, why they didnt film this historic moment, (at least the launch , as the taget was miles away). I'm sorry you have trained us like pavlov's dogs with the social media bombardment  

Maybe the boat had maintenance issues like you all imply about soviet machinery and a fire indeed detonated the heavy missile load. 

Ukraine did not release videos of their raid into Belgorod with Mi-24.

There are many reasons why they wouldn't immediately release videos. It could be used to identify the location or the number of launchers (is it a prototype or a serial version, ...). Also it was done at night, maybe the video is not that interesting. 

But I wouldn't be surprised to see the video released in a few weeks time. Especially if they have footage of Moskva on fire. 

[TheVulture]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

From a trusted source in Kiev who has been keeping up on the news:

• possibly Dniprorudnoe is now back in Ukrainian hands.  This is on the eastern bank of the Dnepr

At first I thought that this seemed like an odd one, given where it is some 20km behind the nominal front line near Zaporizhzhia, and in the area of the Russia 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment but then there was a report this morning of Russian forces firing artillery on Vasylivka train station, which is in the other largish town on that bank of the Dneipr and behind the supposed front line, so maybe it's plausible - or at least the Russians might have a 'front line' but don't actually have any troops in these towns and defence units have managed to infiltrate themselves in.

Situation unclear. As always...

[panzermartin]

1 minute ago, Saberwander said:

Ukraine did not release videos of their raid into Belgorod with Mi-24.

There are many reasons why they wouldn't immediately release videos. It could be used to identify the location or the number of launchers (is it a prototype or a serial version, ...). Also it was done at night, maybe the video is not that interesting. 

But I wouldn't be surprised to see the video released in a few weeks time. Especially if they have footage of Moskva on fire. 

Yes I agree, I was partially joking because we are so spoiled with the non stop feed of battle footage.

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

About the Moskva, I have started to have doubts the Ukrainians hit it with the only Neptune battery they have. They film almost every launch of nlaw or Stugna, why they didnt film this historic moment, (at least the launch , as the taget was miles away). I'm sorry you have trained us like pavlov's dogs with the social media bombardment  

Maybe the boat had maintenance issues like you all imply about soviet machinery and a fire indeed detonated the heavy missile load. 

 

 

 

Maybe, but based on Russian reactions I am thinking the UA pulled it off.  Why not show video?  Any number of OPSEC reasons.  For example, it could be that it wasn't a Ukrainian Neptune missile but a western missile system that we have not "declared" or how the film would show how the UA pulled it off.  Remember that most of the social media we have seen is from irregulars and territorial defence, the conventional UA is pretty tight on this stuff.

[TheVulture]

Russian Ka-52 helicopter shot down overnight between Kharkiv and Izyum.  The tweet in Ukrainian seems rather idiomatic - google translate has the last sentence as:

Pilots. And the "rescuers of Malibu" got pussies

Hopefully a native speaker can enlighten us as to what this means - the context seems to suggest that the pilots and some of the force sent to try and rescue them were killed or captured.

 

 

[AlsatianFelix]

I'm waiting for the satellite images of the Moskva, like the ships hit in Berdyansk couple of weeks ago. There will either be images of it being towed, or if there are no images, it sank too fast to be recorded.

 

[Aragorn2002]

17 hours ago, BFCElvis said:

I tried to send you a direct message but your mailbox is full. Please try to cool. KK?

I'm not sure what you did wrong, but I didn't write that message. I think something went wrong with your quoting. That or my account is hacked.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[kraze]

57 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Famine in Africa will mean another huge refugee wave that Europe will have to handle. Could be a tsunami this time...

 

Hey now, those refugees are guaranteed to stay warm.

[TheVulture]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I'm not sure what you did wrong, but I didn't write that message. I think something went wrong with your quoting.

From what I've seen there might be a bug in the forum software if you keep the page open and keep hitting the 'show new replies' popup as more stuff gets added. It definitely screws up some of the embedded twitter links - someone will post a new link, and for me it shows a duplicate of a twitter message from further up the page (which usually makes the text they've just written make no sense). If you do a hard reload it sorts itself out. 

I think I've seen some wonky stuff happen with quoting as well, but won't swear to that.

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, TheVulture said:

From what I've seen there might be a bug in the forum software if you keep the page open and keep hitting the 'show new replies' popup as more stuff gets added. It definitely screws up some of the embedded twitter links - someone will post a new link, and for me it shows a duplicate of a twitter message from further up the page (which usually makes the text they've just written make no sense). If you do a hard reload it sorts itself out. 

I think I've seen some wonky stuff happen with quoting as well, but won't swear to that.

I recall something like that too, Vulture. Thanks!

[keas66]

Apparently Russia has sent a Diplomatic Note to the US warning them about arming the Ukrainians and to please stop otherwise random threatening noises .

[kraze]

49 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

About the Moskva, I have started to have doubts the Ukrainians hit it with the only Neptune battery they have. They film almost every launch of nlaw or Stugna, why they didnt film this historic moment, (at least the launch , as the taget was miles away). I'm sorry you have trained us like pavlov's dogs with the social media bombardment  

Maybe the boat had maintenance issues like you all imply about soviet machinery and a fire indeed detonated the heavy missile load. 

 

 

 

How would you film something that is more than a hundred kilometers away?

All russian fleet effed off to hide behind Crimea immediately after Moskva was hit - where they still remain. Shouldn't they all be bumrushing to save their flagship?

Furthermore - russians have claimed Moskva is afloat for nearly 24 hours after it sank - and mentioning it's on fire but everything is alright only AFTER Ukraine claimed kill with two missiles - you'd believe them now it's some drunken sailor starting a fire that took down the whole massive ship in less than an hour?

Edited April 15, 2022 by kraze

[Saberwander]

18 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

I'm waiting for the satellite images of the Moskva, like the ships hit in Berdyansk couple of weeks ago. There will either be images of it being towed, or if there are no images, it sank too fast to be recorded.

 

“We know she suffered an explosion,” Pentagon spox John Kirby said of the Moskva on MSNBC. “It looks like — from the images that we have been able to look at — it looks like it was a pretty sizable explosion, too. We don’t know what caused that explosion.”

 

So apparently US has images. Hopefully we get to see them. 

[panzermartin]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

Hey now, those refugees are guaranteed to stay warm.

Not so sure about that. They will probably end up in tent camps somewhere in the aegean islands or the balkans, or worse, lost in the sea. 

[kraze]

Just now, panzermartin said:

Not so sure about that. They will probably end up in tent camps somewhere in the aegean islands or the balkans, or worse, lost in the sea. 

you think they won't find their way into "brotherly" France or Germany like they always do? Those countries have run out of space already?

[panzermartin]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

How would you film something that is more than a hundred kilometers away?

All russian fleet effed off to hide behind Crimea immediately after Moskva was hit - where they still remain. Shouldn't they all be bumrushing to save their flagship?

Furthermore - russians have claimed Moskva is afloat for nearly 24 hours after it sank - and mentioning it's on fire but everything is alright only AFTER Ukraine claimed kill with two missiles - you'd believe them now it's some drunken sailor starting a fire that took down the whole massive ship in less than an hour?

I guess we'll have to wait. Maybe a NATO system was involved as Capt said and they didn't want to release any info. 

[Taranis]

* "central russia"

[Haiduk]

In 2020 former Russian prime-minister Stepashin, handed over to commanders of Moskva a holy reliс, bought, according to Russian opposition journalist Nevzorov, probably in Israel for 40 million $ (yes, millions!). This particle of Cross have to be a symbol of Heaven Protection for this ship. In Russia, where Ortodox Church is hidden part of authorities and big influencer, such things can perceive very seriously. Of course, for 40 millions they could upgrade radars, but... this is irrational Russia. I don't know either ship comamnder was atheist or faithful, but who knows maybe this belief in relic protection and eternal Russian "perhaps" made their decision to sail within 280 km zone fatal. Of course this is a joke, but in each joke is a part of joke.

Stepashin handed over relic

Divin worship in honor of relic hand over. On the icon - admiral Ushakov, famous Russian naval leader of 18-19th centuries, which in 2001 was canonized by Russian Chursh as a saint. This step also was a obvious part of beginning of militarisation propaganda in first years of Putin rule. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

7 minutes ago, kraze said:

you think they won't find their way into "brotherly" France or Germany like they always do? Those countries have run out of space already?

I don't understand the tone sorry. The refugee crisis is a humanitarian disaster since the West decided to  violently intervene in Middle east and Afghanistan but without really investing in a long term plan for the day after. 

[BeondTheGrave]

59 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe, but based on Russian reactions I am thinking the UA pulled it off.  Why not show video?  Any number of OPSEC reasons.  For example, it could be that it wasn't a Ukrainian Neptune missile but a western missile system that we have not "declared" or how the film would show how the UA pulled it off.  Remember that most of the social media we have seen is from irregulars and territorial defence, the conventional UA is pretty tight on this stuff.

This isn't something I had considered until just now, but the choice of the 'Harpoonski' could be interesting. Similar body, similar flight patter to the western missile. Perhaps the Moskva was sank by one of those ASMs I heard we were shipping Ukraine, but then somebody decided that Moscow (the unsinkable one) might not take to kindly to an American missile sinking the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. Anyway, just a thought. Dont want to take anything away from the UA domestic industry and its own missile programs, which seem quite good. 

Also regarding Russian threats to escalate pressure against the west, the Baltics have seemed to stand strong. Germany on the other hand.....

Wouldn't want Germany to become the next target, its bad for business. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[LongLeftFlank]

Russian cheerleaders elsewhere claim the more advanced Slovak S300 system that just arrived has been hit at Dnepro airport. Any harder info on this?

[Maquisard manqué]

23 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I don't understand the tone sorry. The refugee crisis is a humanitarian disaster since the West decided to  violently intervene in Middle east and Afghanistan but without really investing in a long term plan for the day after. 

I don’t like the tone (or dismissiveness over implications for the global south) but at the same time, I can see why he’s pissed: DE and FR are dragging their heels in support to Ukraine compared to others.

The EU and NATO looks like a cosy and exclusive club: good to be in but not overly trustworthy if you’re not in.

Migration is another thread (potentially) but it’s not another sphere in which the EU, or any rich country, has covered itself in glory. The irony is that at the moment, the US, UK and EU look selfishly focussed on their back yard and only interested in Ukraine. Everyone else in the G20 or UN general assembly now looks on the massive efforts being made in Ukraine as selfishness: as unsatisfactory as it might be to Ukraine, it’s more than has been done for any other crisis.

[Kraft]

16 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Russian cheerleaders elsewhere claim the more advanced Slovak S300 system that just arrived has been hit at Dnepro airport. Any harder info on this?

They've been claiming the destruction of a lot of shipments but have released exactly 0 evidence on any so far which is why I'd pay 0 thought on it until they actually release a picture or two.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Kraft

[OldSarge]

18 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Russian cheerleaders elsewhere claim the more advanced Slovak S300 system that just arrived has been hit at Dnepro airport. Any harder info on this?

The only mention I can find of the Slovak S-300 is in this article, all rules of FOW and imperfect information apply. Keep shaker handy.

https://news.yahoo.com/hiding-plain-sight-soviet-era-182202931.html

 

Quote

Alarmed by the flood of weapons flowing across the borders of Slovakia, Poland and Romania, Russia has sought to stop or at least slow it by declaring all foreign arms destined for Ukraine a “legitimate target.” Russia’s foreign minister vowed last month that Moscow “will not allow” the transfer of Slovakia’s S-300 air defense system.

It is too late for that now, and after failing to thwart the delivery, the defense ministry in Moscow claimed on Sunday that Russia had already destroyed the Slovak missile system when sea-launched cruise missiles hit a hangar near the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

Nad, the Slovak defense minister, dismissed this as a “fake news,” apparently aimed at saving Russia’s face and calming the nerves of Russian pilots sent on missions to bomb Ukraine. Nad said he had spoken with Ukraine’s defense minister on Monday and been assured that “this system is working and is working well” and was not in Dnipro.

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by OldSarge