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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not surprised to hear this.  It was expected domestic disruption could be overcome.  Even if they had to resort to cash transactions.  Making international transactions, on the other hand, is (as expected) dead in the water.

Somewhere I stumbled upon a interview with a lesser known Russian oligarch detailing how thorough and sudden his access to financial resources is.  He even wondered if he could afford his house keeper and if his daughter would have to learn how to drive.  That's a big change for someone with theoretical billions in wealth.

Steve

Yep and that was really the point.  Who needs access internationally.. oh yeah the Oligarch's.  For those in Russia sure you can still make financial transactions, but the value of your money is plummeting.  Being able to use an ATM doesn't help if you don't have money.

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3 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Plus IF Russia moves away troops from Kiev axis, Ukraine can also move reserves and reinforce other area's. 

Also, I'd say that top German leadership of the 6th Panzer Army under Balck and others was rather superior compared to what's leading Russian CAA remains. 

If I was the UKR I wouldn't let them.  A withdrawal while in contact. ... yeah that Army isn't capable.  Putin can make all the statements he wants, The Ukrainians don't need to give them the space.  I think Steve said many pages ago something about that moment in CM where your opponent is on the ropes.  Yeah the game is over but we all know how much we want to wipe that force.  Besides all those POWs would be leverage to get back the civilians Russia is kidnapping.

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3 hours ago, akd said:

On the topic of prospects for mobilization in Russia:

 

ohh that will go over well.  They'll be creating an internal division similar to what the US went through in Vietnam.  The privileged get to avoid the draft.  the poor and unskilled get to go die.

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38 minutes ago, sburke said:

If I was the UKR I wouldn't let them.  A withdrawal while in contact. ... yeah that Army isn't capable.  Putin can make all the statements he wants, The Ukrainians don't need to give them the space.  I think Steve said many pages ago something about that moment in CM where your opponent is on the ropes.  Yeah the game is over but we all know how much we want to wipe that force.  Besides all those POWs would be leverage to get back the civilians Russia is kidnapping.

Well supposedly not *all* the troops on the Kiev axis are 'in contact' or directly on the frontline. So if there's let's say somewhere like 70k troops there they might be able to withdraw quite some troops from there, IF those in contact / on the frontline remain in position and cover the withdrawal. The remaining troops would become very fragile though and whatever support / logistics still in place will also be further strained.

Another challenge would be to reintegrate the hodge podge of various units withdrawn into the forces fighting in the east/south, even if they're not shattered yet that will be a non-trivial administrative/reorg task.

One thing which is interesting imo, is the fact that they publicized this. Normally you wouldn't want to communicate a withdrawal because... well withdrawing forces are rather vulnerable imo. So if there wasn't some kind of agreement with Ukrainians it might just be a deception aimed at internal politics: no troops will be withdrawn but this is how some can explain the lack of progress; "in our noble wisdoms and to show our peaceful nature we decided to not push any further on Kiev" 😉 

Edited by Lethaface
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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russians spotted that UKR drone tracks them and hurried to get away so quicly, that two soldiers hadn't time to embark in KAMAZ and ran over the truck )

 

 

Laughed uncontrollably at this! Nice to see that "drone terror" is a thing 😄

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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

As if this Russian troops withdraw from Chernihiv oblast

 

Reportedly about one Russian BTG is in semi-encirclement in Peremoha village area on Brovary direction, Kyiv oblast. This is several kilometers west from recently libarated villages Lukyanivka and Rudnytske. Russian troops are almost out of fuel and food, every day they under fire. Many of personnel as if want to surrender, but commanders tried to force them to fight until supply and reinforcements will not arrive

Start offering cash prices for incapacitated commanders delivered to you when surrendering?

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2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Also, ref 21st Guards MRB - anyone know its parent div/army? Is it a separate formation? Can't find much on it, other than it exists...

2nd Guards CAA.

Alpha 1 team, Ukrainian Foreign Legion at Irpin:

image.thumb.jpeg.b605fb9868fda549c924020c96aacba8.jpeg

Edited by akd
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3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Also, ref 21st Guards MRB - anyone know its parent div/army? Is it a separate formation? Can't find much on it, other than it exists...

21st MRB belongs to 2nd GCAA of Central military district. Dislocation in Totskoye, Orenburg oblast.

This brigade has unusaul composition and names "separate motot-rifle brigade (heavy)". Instead 3 MRB+1 TB it has 2MRB+2TB. 

On the armament T-72B3, BMP-2/2M

Edited by Haiduk
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6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

21st MRB belongs to 2nd GCAA of Central military district. Dislocation in Totskoye, Orenburg oblast.

This brigade has unusaul composition and names "separate motot-rifle brigade (heavy)". Instead 3 MRB+1 TB it has 2MRB+2TB. 

On the armament T-72B3, BMP-2/2M

Very instructive thanks. I've got also on equipment :  2S19 Msta-S x36 / 2S34 Khosta x12

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Pretty good thread on how the political idea of the invasion as a special operation to suppress a recalcitrant province, using a fundamentally political-oriented formation to spearhead (the VDV) lead directly to immediate military failure, and a drastically increasing battlefield friction for which the VDV was unprepared (because its not true, solely military formation).

As a side note, VDV units have been identified leaving the Kiev AO. I highly doubt we'll see them in the Southern AO - they are the regimes enforcers on smaller countries, so they'll most likely be rested, rebuilt and used to kick little peoples back into line. Units already in the south will be steadily pulled out and rebuilt also. The regime needs its fancy looking bullies.

Where they wont be sent is the human garbage compactor of the the Ukrainian invasion.

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4 hours ago, Taranis said:

@Haiduk Thanks a lot, very instructive !

Des soldats ukrainiens de la 103e brigade séparée de la défense territoriale des forces armées, lors d'un exercice d'entraînement, dans un lieu non divulgué, près de Lviv, dans l'ouest de l'Ukraine, mardi 29 mars 2022.

Ukrainian soldiers from the 103rd Separate Brigade of the Armed Forces Territorial Defense, during a training exercise, at an undisclosed location near Lviv, western Ukraine, Tuesday, March 29, 2022. NARIMAN EL-MOFTY / AP

 

 

All you need to know about Ukraine's military situation is that they have the time and resources  to train these guys up properly before committing them to the fight. Compare that to the LPDR guys getting shoved in a truck and probably not even handed a rifle until they got to the front.

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