How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

23 minutes ago, kraze said:

If russians say that some school, hospital, nursery or elderly home is Azov's main base - you know it must be legit.

For example, the Mariupol Drama Theatre was both an Azov HQ, but also Azov blew up the shelter on purpose!

Russia showing off its…I mean Azov’s…handiwork:

https://t.me/stringer_donetsk/1156

They point out that the powerful blast didn’t even break windows in some buildings so it must have been an “internal” explosion. (Guess what dropping an LGB through the roof of multi-story, strongly constructed building does?) A very serious and legitimate investigation has already begun! (No mention of attempting to rescue or recover bodies of those who couldn’t be helped because of constant shelling of the area.)

Edited March 28, 2022 by akd

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Street fighting in Mariupol. Seems the city has fallen to Russians. Anyone know the numbers of the opposing forces here? I have read that 1500 Azov troops were the last defending force. 

 

Russians entered to Kalmius district, this is NE part of Mariupol. Except Azov the city defends at least 503rd marines battalion of 36th marines brigade and 140th marines recon battalion, 12th Oparative brigade of National Guard (Azov is a part of this brigade), units of State Border Guard Service, SBU, police, volunteers. But I can't say even estimated number of defenders. 

Despite Azov name itself as "regiment" indeed officially it names "special purpose detachment" and probably had no more than 500-600 servicemen if their number wasn't raised in first days of war.  

Edited March 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

6 minutes ago, Anon052 said:

Here is the video of the russian prisoners being shot in the leg:

There is even a longer video of this scene out there but I couldn't find it. It does seem legit though.

You'd think the video would first be posted by Ukrainian soldiers and then spread from there finally reaching russian propagandists.

But for some reason it's a russian ministry of "defense" exclusive. Where "Ukrainian" soldiers wear no insignia and speak perfect russian.

[akd]

It’s Paris and Germany all over again:

 

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, Taranis said:

The tank for this one seems to be a T-72 (AV?)

Yes, since the end of 2014 we have T-72AV, T-72B, T-72AMT in service again. 

Edited March 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[BeondTheGrave]

 

Movement on the poisoning story. Given that he was supposed to be the primary target of the attempt, this creates problematic uncertainty. Be careful with this one until you see more corroboration. 

[Fernando]

17 minutes ago, Anon052 said:

Here is the video of the russian prisoners being shot in the leg:

There is even a longer video of this scene out there but I couldn't find it. It does seem legit though.

What surprises me a bit is that around 0:45-0:50 time the blood comes out of the trunk or arm area but they have been shot to the leg

[Fernando]

27 minutes ago, Anon052 said:

Here is the video of the russian prisoners being shot in the leg:

And here (00:04 time)  the flash seems too big, as if firing a blank

Edited March 28, 2022 by Fernando

[Cogust]

I saw a geolocation of the knee capping video to this place: 49.93924673420867, 36.4771693010764, but I don't know if it is legit.

That is just outside Kharkiv, ESE of the city. Have the Russians held that ground recently? 
 

 

[panzermartin]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians entered to Kalmius district, this is NE part of Mariupol. Except Azov the city defends at least 503rd marines battalion of 36th marines brigade and 140th marines recon battalion, 12th Oparative brigade of National Guard (Azov is a part of this brigade), units of State Border Guard Service, SBU, police, volunteers. But I can't say even estimated number of defenders. 

Despite Azov name itself as "regiment" indeed officially it names "special purpose detachment" and probably had no more than 500-600 servicemen if their number wasn't raised in first days of war.  

I see, thank you, so it seems there are still capable forces to fight. 

[Battlefront.com]

Unfortunately, I can easily see FSB or GRU taking a bunch of Ukrainian POWs, swapping clothes with them, and shooting them.

While there is an argument to be made that not all Russians are capable of deliberate atrocities, it's difficult to extend this to FSB or GRU.  These organizations represent the worst of Humanity.

Steve

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Do the Russians have 100k reservists with "combat experience"?  

Yah mon, these guys.

All three.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[akd]

26 minutes ago, Cogust said:

I saw a geolocation of the knee capping video to this place: 49.93924673420867, 36.4771693010764, but I don't know if it is legit.

That is just outside Kharkiv, ESE of the city. Have the Russians held that ground recently? 
 

 

Most likely the prisoner abuse is real (who knows what situation these guys are returning from, and it seems to be too chaotic to be some planned out torture, rather than a spontaneous outburst), but I see a real trend spreading to highlight and “both sides” this rather minor and isolated possible war crime (way down the totem pole from raping, torturing and executing civilians).  Bit sickening when this is on CNN but not the 10 or so eyewitness accounts of abuse / killing of civilians I have heard today alone. Me thinks some in the West are seeking relief for their guilt and excuses to turn away and stop looking.  What better excuse to click on that Will Smith link instead.

I don’t see why it really matters since Ukraine already stated their clear policy and indicated reports of abuse would be investigated.  There is really nothing more you can do other than hope that cooler heads prevail in these situations.

Edited March 28, 2022 by akd

[womble]

The Russians have been in a lot of fighting in the last 30. Some of the bods who saw that combat and survived will still be of reserve age. Might even be 100k.

[dan/california]

Most of them will have spent a decade with their vodka bottle though. Unless seeing combat in the Russian army makes you LESS likely to drink than the average Russian. I don't find that likely. Probably an even more jaundiced view of Russian officers, too.

[danfrodo]

Maybe it's my pro-UKR bias.  But this kneecaping video just doesn't smell right.  Seems tailor-made for propaganda to get soldiers to stop deserting/surrendering. 

Also could be real, UKR forces are pretty angry, justifiably.

[Haiduk]

First video - Georgian volunteers in clashes near Boryspil, Kyiv oblast

Second - helicopter shot down. Whose, when, where - unknown

 

[Markus86]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unfortunately, I can easily see FSB or GRU taking a bunch of Ukrainian POWs, swapping clothes with them, and shooting them.

While there is an argument to be made that not all Russians are capable of deliberate atrocities, it's difficult to extend this to FSB or GRU.  These organizations represent the worst of Humanity.

Steve

It's discussed on twitter, too. 

Some arguments are where the blood is coming from, used language/dialect, boots, how the video was spread, effect of a rifle projectile. 

[Fernando]

Deleted

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2022 by Fernando

[Gpig]

Those videos DO pass the sniff test. It's understandable to not want to believe it.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Some arguments are where the blood is coming from, used language/dialect, boots, how the video was spread, effect of a rifle projectile. 

This is what I hate about Russia the most.  Sane people fight VERY HARD against conspiracy theories started and kept alive by people nit-picking little details of something real to prove it's false.  But Russia does, in fact, produce propaganda and does, in fact, make stupid mistakes that can be picked out by attentive viewers.  The amount of BS that the Russian government formally presented to show it didn't shoot down MH-17, for example, were ridiculous and riddled with obvious signs of forgery.  I've also pointed out that the Russian drone videos released are all obviously doctored junk. 

The end result is even people who fight hard against conspiracy theories have to think twice about Russian sourced materials because they usually turn out to be fiction.  Which is why I'm leaning towards Russian forgery for now even though I'd not be at all surprised to find out that it is legitimate and Russia just happened upon a propaganda gift.  Even the Russians can get lucky once in a long while.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Gpig said:

Those videos DO pass the sniff test. It's understandable to not want to believe it.

Personally, I have no difficulty believing that Ukrainians could have done this or, in fact, have committed far worse atrocities than what is shown on the video.  The level of savagery the Russians are unleashing on Ukraine is bound to push some over the edge.  Ukrainians are Humans and revenge is absolutely a normal Human response to such horrors.  I am a realistic, not an idealist.

But that still doesn't mean I believe *this* video is legitimate.  Sometimes two things can be true, such as "this video is faked" and "Ukrainians are not all saints".

Steve

[akd]

Vulkynivka tanks, now with video:

 

[danfrodo]

So Zelensky saying neutrality is possible, other concessions are possible.  Unless there's a russian collapse or big UKR military victory, some things will have to be lost in negotiations.  But I also believe it's totally OK to just unilaterally abrogate the treaty whenever UKR feels safe enough to do so.  They are being held hostage so any treaty is really just a ransom. 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So Zelensky saying neutrality is possible, other concessions are possible.  Unless there's a russian collapse or big UKR military victory, some things will have to be lost in negotiations.  But I also believe it's totally OK to just unilaterally abrogate the treaty whenever UKR feels safe enough to do so.  They are being held hostage so any treaty is really just a ransom. 

Negotiations are all about posturing.  The details provided during negotiations can hint at bigger strategies.

Zelensky said that Ukrainians would have to vote on certain aspects, especially giving up Donbas.  But Russian troops need to leave Ukraine first.  If Russian troops don't leave, then there's no obligation to have the vote.  If Russians do leave, and the majority of Ukrainians say they don't want to give up the Donbas, then what is Russia to do?

This is something that Russia is (at present) not going to accept.  Especially because this is the #1 problem they ran into with Minsk 2.  Russia expected Ukraine to fulfill its obligations while not doing any of theirs, and that turned into 8 years of Russia not getting what it wanted.

So it might sound like Zelensky is offering a middle ground position, but in practical terms he is not. 

Steve