How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

On 3/25/2022 at 7:08 PM, sburke said:

so what you are saying is we are effectively making war obsolete?  Instead of hitting an SLOC let's just decapitate the leadership.  Facial recognition, bug size UAV... zap

Nope, WE (the US) can’t do that. That would be classified as an assassination of a foreign leader. President Ford issued an Executive Order to prohibit that (primarily aimed at the out of control CIA at that time) and every U.S. President has signed it since. I haven’t read it, but it has to be published in the Federal Register, and anyone can access to text through NARA.gov or Federalregister.gov.

Of course, the sitting President can always remind the E.O., but I don’t anticipate that happening.

[akd]

24 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Checking Oryx, Russian T-80 losses seem to be about half of that of the T-72. Is that because the tank is "twice" as good, or because half as many are in use proportionally?

Far fewer proportionally.  Really just a the two tank regiments in the 4th TD and then a few battalions in assorted motor rifle brigades.  In fact, proportional to their numbers, the losses are huge, probably reflecting the very bad performance of both the 200th SMRB and the 4th TD.

Edited March 27, 2022 by akd

[DesertFox]

22 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 Russian T-80 losses seem to be about half of that of the T-72. Is that because the tank is "twice" as good, or because half as many are in use proportionally? 

AFAIK T-80s are only used in 4th Tank Guards Division, which operates (ed) in the Sumy area and along the highway to Kyiv.

4th Guards Tank Division - Wikipedia

[akd]

12 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

AFAIK T-80s are only used in 4th Tank Guards Division, which operates (ed) in the Sumy area and along the highway to Kyiv.

4th Guards Tank Division - Wikipedia

200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (their “elite” Arctic brigade) has a battalion of T-80BVMs (and have lost a bunch already).  Possibly there is some other unit still running T-80BVs, but these might also be part of 4th TD.

Edited March 27, 2022 by akd

[Vet 0369]

On 3/25/2022 at 7:26 PM, akd said:

Oh, nevermind. Seems Mr. Shoigu maybe had a little “heart attack,” so I guess Bulgakov is now Defense Minister.

 

Gee, and I always thought the primary prerequisite for a heart attack was actually having a heart!

[akd]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

Gee, and I always thought the primary prerequisite for a heart attack was actually having a heart!

He reappeared in a video of a briefing today.

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, akd said:

200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (their “elite Arctic brigade) has a battalion of T-80BVMs (and have lost a bunch already).  Possibly there is some other unit still running T-80BVs, but these might also be part of 4th TD.

Thanks. Where are they operating? Also in the north east of Ukraine or elsewhere?

[Phantom Captain]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Thanks. Where are they operating? Also in the north east of Ukraine or elsewhere?

Yes in the NE of Ukraine and performing terribly.  We discussed it a few days ago but then get lost immediately.

 

[akd]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Thanks. Where are they operating? Also in the north east of Ukraine or elsewhere?

Yes, but they have probably been withdrawn from the frontline.

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Yes, but they have probably been withdrawn from the frontline.

Ah I see. According to Wiki they were at Kharkiv with 60th Separate Guards Tank Battalion (T-80BVM)[20]

200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade - Wikipedia

[20]  "200-я отдельная мотострелковая бригада перевооружена модернизированными танками Т-80БВМ".

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

What you seem to be describing is a form of warfare free from most of the friction which Clausewitz described. You still have to deal with friendly friction, losses from movement, the physical time and act of movement, C2 breakdowns and misunderstandings. But the biggest form of friction is of course the fog of war. Without it, the main body could maneuver as you describe. 

If one goes by Barry Watts:

1. danger
2. physical exertion
3. uncertainties and imperfections in the information on which
action in war is based
4. friction in the narrow sense of the resistance within one's own
forces
5. chance events that cannot be readily foreseen
6. physical and political limits to the use of military force
7. unpredictability stemming from interaction with the enemy
8. disconnects between ends and means in war. (i.e. bad strategy)

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA316730.pdf
 

And this does not even count the other deeper sources that Clausewitz missed, such as cultural blind spots, prejudice, progressive unreality in centralized leadership and the list goes on.

All we are really talking about is #3 and I don’t think perfect information is attainable.  What we are talking about is an illuminated battlefield where conventional mass cannot move or stand without being detected at ranges where it can be engaged.

Deception will always be a part of warfare but what viable options and what that looks like will likely dramatically change and the character of land warfare with it.  Spoofing and decoys are an option but “illuminated” means multi-spectral and multi-resolution.  It doesn’t mean trickery is dead but how and what one can do with it will likely narrow dramatically without penetrating the cognitive systems of an opponent.  It is the principle of surprise that is under strain at least as we know it.

I suspect that we will instead see land warfare evolve to prioritize two things as forces meet; Sense war as each side attempts to blind the other and collapse that snow globe, and Projecting friction onto an opponent through any means possible along all of those other possible pressure points above.  Then an attritional phase to strip away shield system and then manoeuvre to defeat a blinded, sticky and vulnerable opponents fighting power.  This is akin to the knife fighting in Frank Herbert’s Dune, fast race to position, then slow and steady attrition, then a fast finish.

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by The_Capt

[Vet 0369]

On 3/25/2022 at 7:36 PM, TheVulture said:

He was referred to earlier today as being involved in discussions with Armenia re Azerbeijan this afternoon,  which would seem to imply that he's still in post.

Perhaps his involvement is “as the bad example.”

[OldSarge]

52 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Ukraine is winning the war with Russian legacy equipment, or derivatives thereof. Russian and Ukrainian artillery are basically the same. Russian and Ukrainian drones are both loitering over the battlefield. Infantry on both sides carry AKs. But the difference in outcomes is stark. Its the difference between a surgeon performing an operation and the town drunkard attempting the same operation.

The quality of the box matters little. Success depends upon the man who sits in it.
 -- Manfred von Richthofen

We want to compare equipment and tactics, but at the end of the day it comes down to the difference between soldiers fighting for their homes, in the land of their ancestors and a demoralized army of conscripts and mercenaries. .

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by OldSarge

[DesertFox]

BTW. Has anyone heard or seen any russian tank using AT-11 ATGMs? Or is this also some kind of Potemkins russian armor equipment?

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

All we are really talking about is #3 and I don’t think perfect information is attainable.

Follow up.  When you think about it, I was wrong on this as better information also eleviates some of the other sources as well.  Perfect information is not viable so perhaps this will become a competitive de-frictioning while projecting friction onto an opponent.

Regardless, how we used to do business will change as the information balance of warfare changes.  And indications that this is significant.

 

[Baneman]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

...

For the next 10 years at least there are not going to be such debates.  Instead, camps will form to debate the degree of awfulness.  Anybody that attempts to make a case that there's something positive to say about the Russian forces or equipment will be quickly dismissed as out of touch with reality....

To be fair, you might be being slightly harsh about the 10 years - Ukraine turned it around in less than 10.

( then again, they knew they absolutely had to - despite Putin's showy hysterical squalling, no one is threatening to invade Russia. )

[danfrodo]

Whew, crazy couple of days in Ukraine.  counterattacks and ground gained.  RU moves the goalposts.  Some interesting forum stuff today.  My thoughts for today:

1.  UAVs vs ATGM discussion -- you get both, why talk about choosing?

2. Finland comparison has been made here many times, but I think the proper Finland comparison to make is to not do what the germans did.  Germans concluded that Russia was an easy win because of their poor performance in Finland.  Let's not make that mistake.  Russians are not more stupid than anyone else.  They are very poorly led and in the control of a corrupt, unmovable state.  They are not dumb in the same way that the French were not 'surrender monkies' in WW2 (they were very very poorly led leading into and during that fateful May 1940).  Russia is dangerous and let's not assume they will remain utterly incompetent.  NATO needs to beef up and stay ready. 

3. Are we seeing the beginnings of russian military collapses, locally?  Maybe, maybe not.  I wake up every day hoping to see collapse, but it's not here yet. 

4.  West is talking very tough this week.  Letting Putin know there's red lines that will trigger escalation but not telling him exactly what those are -- I want them to trigger us, yeah, go ahead.  Calling specifically for his removal from office.  I like this.

5.  anyone have any reads on China?  Seems they are moving their betting money to neutral and away from Putin The Unreliable, Dangerous Lunatic.

[Kinophile]

Ref that Coy C/O now/was leading a Btt - it could also be a position in name only, ie that all that remains of the Btt is his Coy...making him the Btt C/O.

And promptly getting snacked.

Somehow I doubt his XO is eager to move up...

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Ref that Coy C/O now/was leading a Btt - it could also be a position in name only, ie that all that remains of the Btt is his Coy...making him the Btt C/O.

And promptly getting snacked.

Somehow I doubt his XO is eager to move up...

The germans had Btls run by 2nd Lts in WW2, so let´s wait for his successor...

[Vet 0369]

14 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

This is reportedly for the 4th Tank Division - Kantemirovskaya. I suppose for non-elite units it would be worse still.

So Putin’s vaunted “maneuvers” before the invasion might have been nothing more than an attempt to shake out the bad equipment from the bad stuff.

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

 

5.  anyone have any reads on China?  Seems they are moving their betting money to neutral and away from Putin The Unreliable, Dangerous Lunatic.

My read is that China doesn't want Russia to lose but won't do that much to help Russia win. Their trade with the EU and US is far more important and this debacle creates complications that Xi didn't need. What the PRC will do is be a very friendly neutral to Russia while looking to encourage the non-aligned tendencies of Brazil, India, Mexico, etc. 

[akd]

@Battlefront.com, these are said to be Rosgvardia troops (second half of video from the first day of the war was just made available):

You will note they are well-equipped, but not necessarily well-trained.

Edited March 27, 2022 by akd

[Kinophile]

Also re RUS fighting the last war...yup, exactly - the Donbass war. They fought that, realised some things worked and saw crappy UKR performance and assumed that was how things would stay.

This, because they themselves were under nothing but some political pressure to improve, lead to complacency about any future conflict, causing non-serious, haphazard and inconsistent preparation for that conflict. 

The UA though, realised they were under existential threat and treated it seriously.

So when Russia invaded it literally expected to fight Donbass 2.0 on a national scale, with all the similar traits that they knew - some local support, limited UKR effectiveness, actual tank battles, limited UKR AA/AD, etc.

They thought this war would be Ilovaisk again and again. They forgot that even though Debaltsevo was a UKR loss, it sure as hell was a fighting one and cost the attacks dear. ****ty GHQ decisions created the kettle, not lack of UKR fighting ability.

So lower rank UKR morale (read patriotic nationalism) stayed strong, and the middle level officer's fury at the higher up incompetence drove reforms that are now bearing bitter, bitter fruit for the Ivans.

Vlad sowed this defeat in soil of the Donbass, but it was up to the Ukrainians to reap it against him - which they've done with alacrity.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Also re RUS fighting the last war...yup, exactly - the Donbass war. They fought that, realised some things worked and saw crappy UKR performance and assumed that was how things would stay.

This, because they themselves were under nothing but some political pressure to improve, lead to complacency about any future conflict, causing non-serious, haphazard and inconsistent preparation for that conflict. 

The UA though, realised they were under existential threat and treated it seriously.

So when Russia invaded it literally expected to fight Donbass 2.0 on a national scale, with all the similar traits that they knew - some local support, limited UKR effectiveness, actual tank battles, limited UKR AA/AD, etc.

They thought this war would be Ilovaisk again and again. They forgot that even though Debaltsevo was a UKR loss, it sure as hell was a fighting one and cost the attacks dear. ****ty GHQ decisions created the kettle, not lack of UKR fighting ability.

So lower rank UKR morale (read patriotic nationalism) stayed strong, and the middle level officer's fury at the higher up incompetence drove reforms that are now bearing bitter, bitter fruit for the Ivans.

Vlad sowed this defeat in soil of the Donbass, but it was up to the Ukrainians to reap it against him - which they've done with alacrity.

Good points Kinophile.  As they say, one learns a lot more from failure than from success.  Hitler won in Poland, Norway, and shockingly quickly in France.  So he thought "hey, I am a genius, just like I always said I was, so let's attack Russia.  I never lose; every enemy army has folded up in weeks."

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Sometimes Twitter is a cesspool. Sometimes it is not.

"I am the very model of a Russian Major General

My standing in the battlefield is growing quite untenable

My forces, though equipped and given orders unequivocal

Did not expect the fight to be remotely this reciprocal

 

I used to have a tank brigade but now I have lost several

My fresh assaults are faltering with battleplans extemporal

I can't recover vehicles but farmers in a tractor can

It's all becoming rather reminiscent of Afghanistan

 

My ordnance is the best but only half my missiles make it there

I would have thought by now that we would be controllers of the air

But at the rate the snipers work my time here is ephemeral

I am the very model of a Russian Major General"

 

Ah, spin-off from “The Pirates of Penzance!”