kraze Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 (edited) 6 hours ago, billbindc said: Does anyone know where I could find a good analysis of the effective (emphasis on effective) strength Belarus would have to send to Ukraine? Actually just checking Wikipedia and making some extrapolations is enough. Their whole standing army is about 50k, which includes support personnel, and those are predominantly conscripts that serve for 18 months before moving into reserves. Since Belarus is already de facto annexed by Russia - in the best case scenario they can send 2/3 of those, leaving russian borders completely bare (but they need the rest at EU borders) - which would amount to about 35k mostly conscripts maximum. That's the best case, in reality they will have less than that. So unless putin (through his talking head of lukashenko) orders full mobilization of Belarus - they will be attacking Volyn with 20-25k of low motivation, no experience troops. And ordering mobilization in a country freshly annexed and thus still unpredictable, especially considering that it had no fascist indoctrination in the past 30 years, may be a bad idea. Edited March 20, 2022 by kraze 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 3 hours ago, THH149 said: Whether the Army can give up the corrupt pay-days to do that in reality is something else, and may well need a FSB/Commissar Corp to monitor where the money goes, actually achieve the necessary training standards and have higher training standards, plus changes to doctrine supported by encourage not discouraged small unit initiative A "Commissar Corp" would just divert some of the kickback money to a different patronage stream. Corruption is the accepted way of doing business in Russia, from top to bottom. It's so baked in to systems like theirs that it isn't even considered "wrong". The forms of patronage which are the root of the problem are so well established that they will take generations to root out to the levels seen in the less-corrupt* "West". It has, after all, taken "us" a couple of centuries to drag ourselves out of that mire, even to the extent which we have. The very attitudes that support corruption as endemic in the society will work strongly against any attempt to decentralise the C2 of the Russian military. Ukraine has managed to leverage the existential threat of Russia to make reforms along those lines, it seems, but getting its army eviscerated isn't likely to provoke change in the same way in the RF. * Yes, "less-corrupt". Corruption still exists, subtle and gross in form, in all societies. Ukraine isn't rated much better than Russia. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machor Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Doc844 said: the main reason the allies push across france into germany came to a standstill was because of logistics. Ditto with Bagration in the East. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machor Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, womble said: Corruption still exists, subtle and gross in form, in all societies. Amen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Doc844 said: Maybe Russian generals should have studied how the U.S. and its allies managed the logistics of iraq and afghan. The conclusion would have been pure jealously. I could steal 1/2 as much and be 5 times as rich. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armorgunner Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 11 hours ago, Haiduk said: Some special vehicle based on Zil-131 truck, probably of technical maintenance unit, likely Sumy oblast Is it a Russian Nazi SS-unit, or is the picture mirrored? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armorgunner Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 7 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said: Welcome to 300 boys! And probably a few Girls 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Armorgunner said: Is it a Russian Nazi SS-unit, or is the picture mirrored? Just a nationalized capitalist Z letter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 43 minutes ago, womble said: Corruption still exists, subtle and gross in form, in all societies. Ukraine isn't rated much better than Russia. South Korea was no better than North Korea in terms of corruption (and many other bad things) in the 50s and even decades to follow. But nothing fixes the corruption problem like a constant existential threat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armorgunner Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, kraze said: Just a nationalized capitalist Z letter Well, to me its SS in the picture . Just like a mirrored picture of a Omon soldier. Where it says "HOMO" on their backs. Something many russians are very afraid of. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, kraze said: South Korea was no better than North Korea in terms of corruption (and many other bad things) in the 50s and even decades to follow. But nothing fixes the corruption problem like a constant existential threat. Aye. Maybe Russia will be able to learn from Ukraine's experiences (in the field of corruption-reduction) in the coming decades. The biggest mistake "the West" made with Russia in the '90s was in accepting the kleptocrats as legitimate rather than treating them like the gangsters they were. If Russia had had to reform its ways in order to join the world community, they could have started leaving corruption behind them sooner. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 10 hours ago, The Steppenwulf said: Big unknown - as I've previously queried, we simply don't know what functioning UA forces and TD battalions are out there in the west of Ukraine and, in this case, could move to form effective blocking force in Volhyn oblast. This direction covered by units of 14th mech.brigade, 61st jager brigade, National Guard and Border Guard Service + TD units 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 Apparently a 2 day special operation is going so well - putin is preparing to use his underage putinjugend (yes, they have that) to replace casualties, as they are the most idealistic, strongwilled, other fascist BS blablabla 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 (edited) 13 hours ago, Armorgunner said: why not? My above post answers that. Russian moms are not normal moms. They send millions of their children into "yunarmiya" aka putinjugend to prepare them for aggressive wars since as early as 8 years old, where those children are indoctrinated to die for putin if putin wishes so. They even have a song that literally goes like: "And when supreme commander calls us into the final battle... Uncle Vova, we are with you". https://youtu.be/N1UN0hWNQA4 So as they have it in one of the recent intercepted calls home: Mom: "so basically they sent you out there to die?" Son: "turns out yes, I guess" Mom: "understandable. We have a shortage of sugar here, can you believe that?" Edited March 20, 2022 by kraze 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 7 hours ago, THH149 said: What's happened to the Ukr 1st Tank Brigade that seems to have been encircled around Chernihiv? How are they getting supplied? Units of 1st brigade, at least one battalion now on Brovary direction together with units of 72nd mech.brigade. Our brigades now mostly actitg not as whole formations, but by separate BTGs and even CTG in different places. Chernihiv is not completely encircled 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armorgunner Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 (edited) Heavy fighting, from the sight of an Ukrainian, Azov BTR-4 in Mariupol. And obviously, they know where to aim. Where the armor is the thinnest on what looks like a T-72B3 Obr. 2016? Edited March 20, 2022 by Armorgunner Spelling 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarjen Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 44 minutes ago, kraze said: Apparently a 2 day special operation is going so well - putin is preparing to use his underage putinjugend (yes, they have that) to replace casualties, as they are the most idealistic, strongwilled, other fascist BS blablabla Is that the draft call for the Putinjugend? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, DesertFox said: I wouldn´t, If they keep a good ratio of mixing experienced soldiers with newly mobilized ones. But I don´t know how exactly they handle it. A good way is to at least pull every second in command (Btl, Coy, Plt, Grp) from an active unit for takeover of command (Btl, Coy, Plt, Grp) in a new build unit to get the lessons learned into the newly mobilized soldiers. Most of people which is enlisting now are so-called Operative Reserve 1 - those, who fought in Donbas and retired. We have more than 100 000 of OR1. Also there is limited enlistment of Operative Reserve 2 - people, who served in Army but w/o combat experience or gained military speciality in univercities. Also volunteers. Also about 320 000 Ukrainains turned back to Ukraine from EU and more than 2/3 are a men. There is now big queues in enlistment offices and many people got answer "we have your phone and we will call when this will be need". So, as I understand, first-wave mobilization already mostly completed and units is conducting trainings and combat coordination. There is a problem, how to move them to east and avoid strikes. Edited March 20, 2022 by Haiduk 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Sarjen said: Is that the draft call for the Putinjugend? No, if this document is true, it just recommend to YouthArmy chiefs to seek most ideological youngsters of 17-18 years old, which ready to participate in "special military operation". All appropriate conscripts have to be mobilized and to sign contracts during spring and autumn drafts Edited March 20, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 SOF ambushed small convoy with IEDs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c3k Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 The next phase of this war will be Ukraine pushing the Russians back. Obviously, the operational plan will not be a straight "push", but Ukraine will need to begin their own offensive. Steve has done some great work laying out why Russia is NOT the one with the manpower in this fight. So, using the 100,000 Ukrainian OR1 which will come into this fight...how's that going to work? Does Ukraine have uncommitted long-range systems? (Drones and arty, etc.) Or, are these 100,000 supposed to attack with their rifles and grenades? They must be integrated into a modern OFFENSIVE system. Current Ukraine forces are incredibly well-suited to the defensive fight against Russia's attack. As the Russian spearheads dig in, and Putin's generals reinforce the supply lines (with Syrians and Putinjugend?), the Russian lines will harden up. It's great that Ukraine has a vast reservoir of motivated fighters to call up. But just sending infantry in against the Russians is NOT the answer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, c3k said: Does Ukraine have uncommitted long-range systems? (Drones and arty, etc.) Or, are these 100,000 supposed to attack with their rifles and grenades? They must be integrated into a modern OFFENSIVE system. We have cadre brigades of Reserve Corps, which activate during big war. They should have all equipment, like usual brigades (I hope). Also this mobilized go for reinforcement of existing brigades, involved to fight or for establishing of second-wave battalions of these brigades. Of course detailed information is classified, so I can tell here only that what some people are hinting in twitters. 4th Reserve Corps: - 3rd, 4th, 5th tank brigades - 60th, 63rd, 66th mech.brigades - 38th, 45th artilelry brigades Also probably 45th, 46th air-assault brigades, subordinated not to Reserve Corps but to Air-assault Comamnd Edited March 20, 2022 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Armorgunner said: Heavy fighting, from the sight of an Ukrainian, Azov BTR-4 in Mariupol. And obviously, they know where to aim. Where the armor is the thinnest on what looks like a T-72B3 Obr. 2016? T-72B has 80 mm side hull in bow and turret area and 70 mm in engine area. T-72B3 has the same side hull thickness. Edited March 20, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 One UKR IFV takes out 1 MBT and 2 IFVs. Those are good results. Kiev won't fall. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armorgunner Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Haiduk said: T-72B has 80 mm side hull in bow and turret area and 70 mm in engine area. T-72B3 has the same side hull thickness. I belive its even thinner, behind the wheels that far down. (dont know the english word, sorry) https://below-the-turret-ring.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-armor-protection-of-t-72-tank.html The lower section seems to be only 20mm Edited March 20, 2022 by Armorgunner 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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