How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Hapless]

41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So the theories on what is happening to the Russian forces now are roughly assembling around 3 possibilities:

Possibility 4: peace talks are actually gaining traction. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-warns-china-against-helping-russia-sanctions-mount-2022-03-15/

Assuming the aim of the Russian offensive is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, the abysmal showing of the Russian Armed Forces in the past couple of weeks may actually have encouraged the Ukrainians that NATO membership is either unnecessary or a ball that can be kicked down the road out of the immediate future.

Potentially, Zelensky could compromise of NATO membership (on the basis that it's not needed), giving Putin the successful result he needs to pull the plug without losing face.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Hapless

[DesertFox]

12 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

That strikes me more as a propaganda move or to put pressure on the Ukrainians, it will be weeks at least before they show up on the front lines and there should be a ceasefire agreement by then.

Yes I agree. I only believe this "Fighters from Syria" story when I see it.

[BeondTheGrave]

9 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Assuming the aim of the Russian offensive is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, the abysmal showing of the Russian Armed Forces in the past couple of weeks may actually have encouraged the Ukrainians that NATO membership is either unnecessary or a ball that can be kicked down the road out of the immediate future.

I strongly disagree with this. If anything the lesson, IMO, is the opposite. Had Ukraine had a western security guarantee either via NATO or the EU this would not have happened. The Baltics are prone to the exact same kind of wormhole conflicts involving their own Russian minorities. That hasn't happened thanks to their inclusion in NATO. If Ukraine fails to develop a meaningful and reliable security guarantee then it is setting itself up to go through this huge trauma again in another eight years, and another eight years after that, until finally the Russians get lucky and win one. 

This is the ideal though, would Ukraine be willing to trade NATO for the Donbass and EU for Crimea? In other words a resolution to the conflict in exchange for mutual sacrifices. That could be a tempting offer in Kyiv, and anyway they could always betray the 'no-NATO' guarantee later. But I dont see Putin willing to back out of these areas, which means the best Kyiv can hope for is the 'status quo ante' which leaves them in a frozen conflict, and then we come back to the deterrent effect of NATO membership and a US BTG in Kharkov. Even more realist, IMO, is a halt in place. Regarding what I'm reading RE: Kherson, I feel like the Russians are going to push hard to hive off another section of Ukraine. And if they finally take Kharkov do the same there. I just dont see Kyiv backing off collective security in those conditions, it only weakens them in the long run. 

Edited March 15, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Haiduk]

"Azov" 's work in Mariupol. Though, Mariupol is defending not only Azov, but also 503rd marines battalion, 140th marines recon battalion (or it units), 12th Operative brigade of National Guard (Azov is in composition of brigade), border guards, maritime coast guard (they abandoned own boats in Berdiansk), KORD special police, police.

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Possibility 4: peace talks are actually gaining traction. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-warns-china-against-helping-russia-sanctions-mount-2022-03-15/

Assuming the aim of the Russian offensive is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, the abysmal showing of the Russian Armed Forces in the past couple of weeks may actually have encouraged the Ukrainians that NATO membership is either unnecessary or a ball that can be kicked down the road out of the immediate future.

Potentially, Zelensky could compromise of NATO membership (on the basis that it's not needed), giving Putin the successful result he needs to pull the plug without losing face.

I am only really talking about military options.  Politically there are more and let's hope they exercise them.

[keas66]

Brutal - Looks like it went over a Mine ??

 

[kraze]

31 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

That strikes me more as a propaganda move or to put pressure on the Ukrainians, it will be weeks at least before they show up on the front lines and there should be a ceasefire agreement by then.

Whole Syrian standing army is 130k and it's absolute trash that couldn't do jack to insurgents without russia, sending quarter of that force that is much worse than russian army into an alien, heavily wooded, environment - is just BS

But sure they can send a few thousand of syrians here and they will just get wiped.

[Blazing 88's]

7 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Brutal - Looks like it went over a Mine ??

 

At the end I think one can make out a crew member running to the bottom of the screen, his pant legs seem to be in flames... then the vid cuts.

[Phantom Captain]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

Whole Syrian standing army is 130k and it's absolute trash that couldn't do jack to insurgents without russia, sending quarter of that force that is much worse than russian army into an alien, heavily wooded, environment - is just BS

But sure they can send a few thousand of syrians here and they will just get wiped.

I'm sure they will JUST LOVE nights in the mud or on frozen ground with sub zero temps!  

[kraze]

28 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Possibility 4: peace talks are actually gaining traction. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-warns-china-against-helping-russia-sanctions-mount-2022-03-15/

Assuming the aim of the Russian offensive is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, the abysmal showing of the Russian Armed Forces in the past couple of weeks may actually have encouraged the Ukrainians that NATO membership is either unnecessary or a ball that can be kicked down the road out of the immediate future.

Potentially, Zelensky could compromise of NATO membership (on the basis that it's not needed), giving Putin the successful result he needs to pull the plug without losing face.

So putin attacked a country that was never planning to join NATO and had a neutral status in its constitution so that it wouldn't join NATO, am I right?

[akd]

EDIT: oops, already posted, but I’ll leave this as a no annoying music version.

Russian tank crosses ditch and then immediately explodes.  Think I see a flash on left side of tank immediately before the ammo detonates.

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by akd

[Haiduk]

Azov also claims they have elimineted next Russian general. There is a graphic photo of his body with a shoulder strap of mayor-general. There is unknown who is it for now. There is a version this is mayor-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division

Grafic photo! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN4UJ5cWUAIJrz-?format=jpg&name=large

Confirmed recently claimed death of high-ranked officer of 103 missile brigade (Iskander-M), Ulan-Ude, Buriatia, Esatern miliitarty district: the chief of liason, chief of staff deputy mayor Alexandr Fiodorov. So, this can be real, that Russian Iskander unit met with our SOF...

 

 

[sross112]

19 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Very interesting analysis and responses:

"Even though the sanctions aren't watertight, they're causing sufficient damage to the Russian economy that it's status as a 'great power' has been completely undermined in the eyes of the world, and particularly China. While a China-Russia axis remains possible, I would assume that Chinese caution, pragmatism and long-term thinking make it significantly less likely given the dual irresponsibility and failure of the Putin regime to achieve its objectives. In thinking about post-war costs, would it be in Chinese interests to participate in a globally-funded reconstruction programme for Ukraine? This would be a clear benefit to China in improving its relations with the West, and would in essence be storing up both a 'favour' and a financial precedent for when Chinese sovereign debt becomes a regime-threatening issue. This would be even more the case if China has either participated in, or even led, international efforts to end the war or even have the Putin regime replaced (latter less likely but not impossible, depending on Putin's escalatory actions). In summary, will China's self-interest become a significant determining factor in both the current war and what comes after it?"

After WW2 the assistance given to both Germany and Japan enabled those nations to recover and become global powerhouses 25-30 years later. It would seem that (if the situation doe end up like post WW2) it is paramount that the west do this for Russia and ensure that China is kept isolated so that the west gets the PR benefits as well as some (at least) moral claim to Russia's enormous riches.  Russia is an enormously rich country in terms of raw materials, and it's a testament to incompetency (or something) that its average citizens are not also wealthy and relatively quiescent as the populations in the west tend to be.

I really disagree with the last part of this. The west tried this approach with Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed and here we are. I think Russia should be left to itself. So it gets "closer" to China. Really it just gets more economically dependent on China. Really that should be a positive for the west as it drains China's resources for little to no gain and not ours. Haven't they been friends this whole time anyway, or at least friends when it suits them (against the west). I think that until Russia has a complete change of hearts/politics it will continue to be a thorn in the side of the western nations. That change has to come from within, by their own choice and no amount of foreign investment is going to do that. All that it will do is prop them up so they can be a bigger pain in the butt than they can achieve on their own.

What should be done is all that money pumped into the Ukraine and build them up like post war Germany and Japan. They hate Russia so they will be a staunch ally and a great counter to their efforts in that area. They have the resources, population and location to be a very successful nation and would be a great addition to the EU and NATO. If Sweeden, Finland and Ukraine are admitted into NATO Russia is effectively canceled in the west. 

Play those cards and Russia effectively becomes the old drunk guy in the corner of the international bar boasting about his glory days in high school that everyone eye rolls and ignores.

It's really too bad that China doesn't see this as an opportunity for expansion. They should be thinking "Wow, who knew they sucked so bad?" and decide to de-nazify eastern Russia. Take everything east of the Urals, gain the massive resources they seek and probably face very little back lash from the rest of the world. It would be funny if they used the same narrative that Putin has against him. I know it won't happen, but more because that scenario is guaranteed to go nuclear, not because they are "friends". 

[keas66]

10 minutes ago, Blazing 88's said:

At the end I think one can make out a crew member running to the bottom of the screen, his pant legs seem to be in flames... then the vid cuts.

Looked more to me like a part of the tank - like one of the wheels  ...but   whatever the weapon used was it obliterated the tank

[kraze]

39 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm thinking it will be option 1. Basically a WW1 style of war where the Russians dig in and bombrd the approaches to Kyiv in order to creep forward slowly until they can get their regular artillery in range of the city. Then try to pummel the defenders into submission.

Bombard with what?

Shells from another convoy that will get ambushed on a random Ukrainian road and sent to hell?

Russia is asking China to send them MREs for god's sake. The "strongest army in the world" is stealing chicken so they have something to eat because food is constantly getting ambushed.

Or will they just dig in and grow food?

[Blazing 88's]

12 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Looked more to me like a part of the tank - like one of the wheels  ...but   whatever the weapon used was it obliterated the tank

EDIT:
(the last five seconds or so) Looks like a leap from the burning hulk and running strides (to the bottom of the screen) with flaming pant legs to me...  zoomed in. But yeah, whatever the weapon did it's job that is for sure.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Blazing 88's

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

Looked more to me like a part of the tank - like one of the wheels  ...but   whatever the weapon used was it obliterated the tank

What achieves the complete obliteration of the tank is its own ammo, but whatever the Ukrainians hit it with was more than sufficient to set that ammo off. I am just wondering about the rest of the column. I suspect they got VERY reluctant to continue down that road. Hopefully another couple of platoons of abandoned vehicles by the next morning.

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

EDIT: oops, already posted, but I’ll leave this as a no annoying music version.

Russian tank crosses ditch and then immediately explodes.  Think I see a flash on left side of tank immediately before the ammo detonates.

 

Ya me too.  If it is a mine it is an off route one.  Or a tilt rod that penetrates the hull.  More likely was an anti-tank weapon of some sort.  Either way, catastrophic.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

Very interesting analysis and responses:

"Even though the sanctions aren't watertight, they're causing sufficient damage to the Russian economy that it's status as a 'great power' has been completely undermined in the eyes of the world, and particularly China. While a China-Russia axis remains possible, I would assume that Chinese caution, pragmatism and long-term thinking make it significantly less likely given the dual irresponsibility and failure of the Putin regime to achieve its objectives. In thinking about post-war costs, would it be in Chinese interests to participate in a globally-funded reconstruction programme for Ukraine? This would be a clear benefit to China in improving its relations with the West, and would in essence be storing up both a 'favour' and a financial precedent for when Chinese sovereign debt becomes a regime-threatening issue. This would be even more the case if China has either participated in, or even led, international efforts to end the war or even have the Putin regime replaced (latter less likely but not impossible, depending on Putin's escalatory actions). In summary, will China's self-interest become a significant determining factor in both the current war and what comes after it?"

After WW2 the assistance given to both Germany and Japan enabled those nations to recover and become global powerhouses 25-30 years later. It would seem that (if the situation doe end up like post WW2) it is paramount that the west do this for Russia and ensure that China is kept isolated so that the west gets the PR benefits as well as some (at least) moral claim to Russia's enormous riches.  Russia is an enormously rich country in terms of raw materials, and it's a testament to incompetency (or something) that its average citizens are not also wealthy and relatively quiescent as the populations in the west tend to be.

It's not incompetency - it's 'something else' - namely hundreds of years of eliminating people with brains and cultivating a nation of serfs that is incapable of producing anything using those raw resources.

Also helping is exactly what west did to Russia - and Russia used all those money to murder, rape and rob their neighbors and produce nothing of their own, while becoming the prime source of all the misery in the world once again.

Russians are uncivilized, they cannot live peacefully with their neighbors, they are violent and unreliable.

My god, even Ukraine supplied Russia with food at no cost in the '90s so our former enslavers wouldn't starve, hoping we will all live in peace.

So yes, let's repeat that mistake again and see even more victims and suffering.

Edited March 15, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

8 hours ago, kraze said:

1. There is no live TV in Russia

2. She is an editor of the 1st channel and is directly responsible for all the anti-ukrainian propaganda

3. This is a russian media operation to remove Ukraine from the front pages in the world press, as well as make Ukrainians think that only putin is at fault:

3a. As evidenced by her video where she goes on about how "russians and ukrainians are brothers" and "my father is ukrainian". It's so obvious it's cringe.

3b. The video was initially posted by all the pro-putin "controlled opposition" politicians like Sobchak and Khodorkovsky, who themselves were very pro-war for 8 years, but now got a new playbook.

And russians won - all the western press replaced Ukraine with a "good russian" and even here it worked into out Stockholm syndrome where this obvious propaganda worker is now considered a hero by some.

Don't fall for it.

that doesn't make any sense.  It doesn't remove Ukraine from front pages, it only makes the West see Putin as more of the problem if that is even possible, it makes us think the world opposition is having effect in Russia so.. pile on more.

Is it fake?  maybe.  But if so like all else in Russia's playbook it failed at whatever it may have been intended to do.

[akd]

Interesting. There are two flashes almost simultaneously, but the smaller one is just off the road to the left of the tank.  Off-route mine, or did someone (maybe the person running on fire) engage tank at point blank range?

Edited March 15, 2022 by akd

[Lethaface]

25 minutes ago, akd said:

EDIT: oops, already posted, but I’ll leave this as a no annoying music version.

Russian tank crosses ditch and then immediately explodes.  Think I see a flash on left side of tank immediately before the ammo detonates.

 

Looks like some large IED or something to me, there is indeed flash on the left side of the tank (right on video) just before the tank itself explodes. It even looks like the tanks moves because of it (or the earth is moved), than it explodes.

16 minutes ago, Blazing 88's said:

Looks like a leap from the burning hulk and running strides, with flaming pant legs to me...  zoomed in. But yeah, whatever the weapon did it's job that is for sure.

I saw something moving too, but I'd say probably something rolling of; if someone can run from that explosion that would be T-2 I guess

[kraze]

Just now, sburke said:

that doesn't make any sense.  It doesn't remove Ukraine from front pages, it only makes the West see Putin as more of the problem if that is even possible, it makes us think the world opposition is having effect in Russia so.. pile on more.

Is it fake?  maybe.  But if so like all else in Russia's playbook it failed at whatever it may have been intended to do.

But that's the whole point - Putin doesn't care about what the West thinks about him. What will they do to him that they already didn't?

The goal of such operations is to make the West more empathetic towards russians and in turn ease off sanctions that hurt "common folk".

The goal is putin bad, russians good.

And already we see companies pushing to stay in Russia to "support people like this brave girl".

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

 

Interesting. There are two flashes almost simultaneously, but the smaller one is just of the road to the left of the tank.  Off-road mine, or did someone (maybe the person running on fire) engage tank at point blank range?

Could this be the first use of an EFP mine caught on tape?: The U.S. has them in inventory, and they are the kind of thing it would make sense to ship the Ukrainians by the plane load.

[sburke]

Just now, kraze said:

But that's the whole point - Putin doesn't care about what the West thinks about him. What will they do to him that they already didn't?

The goal of such operations is to make the West more empathetic towards russians and in turn ease off sanctions that hurt "common folk".

The goal is putin bad, russians good.

And already we see companies pushing to stay in Russia to "support people like this brave girl".

I don't see any of that.  there are a few folks who voted against the sanctions even before that clip, but I haven't seen anything to indicate there is any change of heart just because of that.  I think you are letting your hatred of Russia color everything you see.  Not good to be that unobjective.