How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Artillery of 128th mountain-assault brigade shells the enemy armored vehicles. Two close hits, Russian (or LNR) vehicles try to leave kill zone

 

 

Two more Bayraktar strikes. Looks like the same command center location near Makariv. Claimed EW asset hit (first video) and unidentified target on the second video

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[John Kettler]

20 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

That could well be a Javelin attack. My eyes are rheumy right now, but my impression after two passes through the video is that almost immediately after launch, something whips upward, is out of frame, then reappears shortly before strikling the tank and detonating. There's a comment on the tweet saying the abrupt ending of the video proves the missile didn't kill the tank.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/11/2022 at 4:15 AM, Freyberg said:

John Kettler,

I personally appreciate your contribution to CM over the years - you have searched out things that are historical, factual, and often extremely interesting. Some things on this particular thread are possibly propaganda, maybe to some degree on both sides. I don't mind that - I like to know what propaganda is out there. It's OK to hear this stuff direct, then you can make up your own mind.

Another very common type of post in CM forums is the opinion post - some of it quite well-informed, a bit more of it being 'armchair general' kind of stuff. I find opinion posts less interesting, but a lot of people like them.

Anyway, I'm glad you post the things you find - I have no time to search out any of this stuff myself. I don't like it that others are rude to you - my rather long list of people I've blocked on this forum is made up of rude people, something I can't abide.

Anyway - keep posting. I've always appreciated your diverse posts on CM and I continue to appreciate them

Freyberg,

Many thanks for this, having taken considerable flak lately, even for things far beyond the usual attacks!

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[John Kettler]

It's getting hard for me to process  all these higher-high ranking Russian officer deaths. Are the Ukrainians doing most of this, or is a considerable portion tied to, say, equipment failure while flying someplace?  Would be willing to be there haven't been so many high-higher officer deaths since the GPW.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

[Ultradave]

Some improvement in the news from Ukraine's nuclear power plants.  Electric power at Chernobyl being fixed and safeguards monitoring back up at the plant that was under attack.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-18-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine?fbclid=IwAR0wmKoE_soRLt1KFCvDzsFCFiFDiL9uoo3bk_bu0H6ClHxqDDcrkI-tfOs

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Ultradave

[John Kettler]

19 hours ago, Kinophile said:

" ‘The officers started stationing themselves further and further away from the fighting … they are out of radio range at this point, and no one can contact them’.

Which makes them vulnerable to drone/arty strikes, SOF attacks and TD harrassment.

Have Russian EW cadres refrained from a heavier weight of electronic attack to avoid friendly fire against the civilian communications their troops rely on? This theory must be entertained.

RUS crappy tactical comms are vulnerable to their highly effective EW equipment. So the EW units must hold back so that the combat units can fight, but which need the EW units to do their job so that they have secure comms, but if the EW units DO their job then the combat units cannot communicate effectively in unfamiliar terrain.

The irony is so ironic its rusting in real time.

Link

Kinophile,

This is brilliant!

The irony is so ironic its rusting in real time.

As for EW, the classic problem has been whether it's better to listen in and gather intel or jam, Here, it's much worse, but I wonder why the EW people can't jam the Ukrainian freqs, given the Russians should have their own separate ones?

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

@DesertFox

Here well-equipped TD unit, not 40+ only, Kyiv area. Most of theese guys are members of right organization HONOR  

[Haiduk]

30th mech.brigade shells with a mortar of small enemy convoy. Direct hit

 

[John Kettler]

19 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well the first thing to remember when looking at UKR forces is that there are layers here.  Unlike the Russian forces who, for the most part, try to control where they are with LOCs back to Belarus or Russia, these are horizontal forces and relationships.

The Ukrainians have vertical forces and relationships in addition to horizontal ones.  So take any map of the conflict:

This one from wikipedia - So the interplay of red and yellow with tac signs is horizontal.  And from this it does look like the Russians are trying to do some operational pinching which would normally point to some trouble for the UA.  The reality is though that the map is really three dimensional.  Vertically there is a foundation of local and regional support and combat power in the form of an ever growing resistance (I hear a lot of western experts say "insurgency", I think I even used the term early once and this is inaccurate, a resistance is really something else from a lot of directions).  Further, for every day that the Russians bog down, that vertical resistance gets better armed, better organized and better prepared. 

So what?  Well from a Russian viewpoint that vertical layer underneath means two very bad things: support and friction.  Ukrainian force will be able to draw support from that layer in the form of manpower and logistics.  This means the Russians are now force to make those "pinches" air tight, which is extremely labour intensive.  For example, locals can push fuel and ammo into a pocket, through all the backroads and farmers fields, which they know very well, and continue to supply fighting power to seemingly cut off troops.  The level of control required for that is extreme, as the US learned in Vietnam.

Second is friction.  Having even low tech resistance everywhere is exhausting in terms of constant attrition and morale.  Every move you make is watched and reported on, every road move is like the freakin Memphis Bell mission over Germany - someone is going to get killed and we are all hoping it isn't us.  Logistical lines need to be iron-cladded.  And this will inevitably lead to over use of force on civilians which does nothing for the information war.   

So in this sense it is really hard to judge where the Ukrainians stand by using the pins on the mapboard.  They have already gone hybrid.  For example, how many major tank battles have we heard about?  There have no doubt been clashes but the Ukrainians are already fighting like Comanches with drones right now offensively and it is working for them.  Defensively, again layers, they can dig in and be very difficult to dig out, and even if you do, you still have a deeper resistance to deal with in the civilian population.

My assessment matches what we have been seeing all over mainstream.  The Russians have stalled...bad.  This was not a consolidation or re-org or clever trap, it was a significant stalling an a systemic level going all the way back through those LOCs.  The Ukrainians have created so much friction on the Russian advance that the war machine looks like it broke.  They are now staging local c-attacks and very visible attrition actions from what I can see. 

The question the remains is "can the Russians re-org/re-boot and somehow regain the operational offensive?" This, particularly around Kyiv.  Or are we going to see what I call "zombie muscle twitches" as formation commanders try and look busy to get the heat off them that is coming from Moscow?  These can even seem dramatic but they do not translate into any real operational gains.  Don't know, a lot of opinions out there for either side.

Few things I do notice:

- Russians are not even talking about Western Ukraine anymore.  If the aim was to take the whole perogy, Kyiv is more symbolic.  In order to do that "entire Ukraine" thing, one has to cut off support from the West.   Which really means that all this prom-night groping in the East - so sweaty but not really going nowhere - is missing the point entirely once we accept that Ukrainians will very likely keep on fighting both conventionally and unconventionally even after Kyiv falls.    Why there was not a very sharp attack from Western Belarus at what it the real strategic Center of Gravity in all this, Lviv, to seal up the western end of Ukraine, including the Carpathians, was the first sign that the Russians did not think this through.

- Operationally, the Russians have still not established pre-conditions and we are over two weeks in.  Air, info, electronic, cognitive/decision and logistical superiority have all been a hard fail.  For example, Russian Air Forces should be hitting logistical resupply from the west 24/7 - an air campaign for the history books- and they are largely tepid and absent.  They need to work on that or this grind is going to be much longer, to the point they very may well not be able to sustain.

- Operationally, the Ukrainians are not showing signs of buckling in all those pre-conditions areas. There is no doubt erosion but they still can find, fix and finish Russians and even do local offensive actions. All the while they coordinate and communicate effectively and are still able to push support in from the West as they get better and better prepared. 

So in summary, keep an eye on that vertical Ukrainian dimension because it is decisive and something needs to demonstrate the Russians are even able to set what should have been initial conditions and I may start to buy in on the "Russian Grind" strategy.  Until then we are at Balkan-No-Step, everyone digs in and tries to influence the negotiation table, or Death March to Moscow as the Russian military simply quits.  I mean the Russians do have the numbers for the Russian Grind but that is on paper and looking at the horizontal dimension only.  This is unfolding like a European version of that anecdote from Afghanistan, "Russians have all the fancy watches but the Ukrainians have all the time".      

The_Capt,

Congratulations on a most cogent, astute and insight-producing analysis and assessment! This verticality you talk of is something new to me, though I was aware the US Army was doing some 3D type depiction of real or hypothetical situation i n which all sorts of other factors were included, such as morale, local support, logistics. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

Kharkiv. The video was filmed about week ago. Russian jet drops a bomb on the city. The cathidreal was damaged in this strike

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[womble]

38 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

It's getting hard for me to process  all these higher-high ranking Russian officer deaths. Are the Ukrainians doing most of this, or is a considerable portion tied to, say, equipment failure while flying someplace?  Would be willing to be there haven't been so many high-higher officer deaths since the GPW.

Regards,

John Kettler

Unless there have been several "chopper malfunctions", I don't see it (from the nature and frequency of the reports and the different formations losing their bosses) being down to accident; there hasn't been a report of a "mass casualty" event involving REMFs, and there have been specific reports that at least a couple were down to sniper fire, as they un-RE themselves and scurry forward to sort out the mess at the pointy end. It seems unlikely that there would be so many separate "accidents". I think, apart from the hard-chargers getting their hands dirty, it may be down to the "fluid" nature of the combat, with generals perhaps believing too hard in the red lines on the map being hard control of territory, rather than indication that "we've been there once or twice and might have some bods nearby".

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, John Kettler said:

Taranis,

Yet more V marked AFV I see! Do you know whan, where or both this. video was shot.

Unfortunately no more info. Russians doesn't give more. 

Previously V was stated as Naval infantry. But I think it's erronous and used for Airborne (it's always BMD) and Chechen.

Initialy Vs were stated as being in the north (Kyiv area). I don't know if it's still the case or V is also for Airborne in the south (eg 76 GAAD)

[John Kettler]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Additional evidence of Panzerfaust 3 being deployed within Ukraine:

Look at the picture in the lower right.  For you American folks of a certain age, you'll probably get this:

Hey Mykhail! He likes it!

Steve

The box says on the side abschussrohr und patrone, which means launcher and cartridge, but I would translate as launch pipe and cartridge. Either way, I don't get the cartridge part, unless that signals it comes with one round of ammo? That said, the soldier shown clearly adores his Panzerfaust 3.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[John Kettler]

15 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Dramatic indeed! The ambush was at practically spitting distance, with initial kills of the T-72B3 and the BTR-82A, but another tank was also set afire, but was still mobile and ablaze in the foreground. Wonder how that played out. Also, looked to me as if the ambush group got shelled by a couple of tanks. What was the big explosion behond the road image left caused by?

Regards,

John Kettler

[Taranis]

Quote

12:54 
La Russie menace de cibler les livraisons d’armes occidentales à l’Ukraine
Le vice-ministre des affaires étrangères russe a menacé, samedi, les Etats-Unis, affirmant que la Russie pourrait prendre pour cible leurs livraisons d’armes à l’Ukraine, où l’armée russe avance depuis deux semaines. Sergueï Riabkov a averti dans une interview à la chaîne télévisée Pervy Kanal :

« Nous avons averti les Etats-Unis que la livraison d’armes qu’ils orchestrent depuis un certain nombre de pays n’est pas seulement un geste dangereux, c’est un acte qui font des convois mentionnés en cibles légitimes. »

M. Riabkov a également déclaré que les « garanties de sécurité » demandées par la Russie à l’Occident, dont l’assurance que l’Ukraine ne rejoindrait jamais l’OTAN, n’étaient plus valables. « La situation a changé complètement. La question est désormais d’obtenir la mise en œuvre des objectifs de nos dirigeants », a-t-il affirmé, en référence à la « démilitarisation » de l’Ukraine que réclame le Kremlin. « Si les Américains y sont disposés, nous pourrons bien sûr reprendre le dialogue », a-t-il néanmoins ajouté, précisant que Moscou était prête au sujet des accords Start, de limitation des arsenaux nucléaires. « Tout dépend de Washington », a-t-il dit.

12:54
Russia Threatens to Target Western Arms Deliveries to Ukraine
Russia's deputy foreign minister threatened the United States on Saturday, saying Russia could target its arms shipments to Ukraine, where the Russian military has been advancing for two weeks. Sergei Ryabkov warned in an interview with the Pervy Kanal TV channel:

“We have warned the United States that the delivery of weapons it orchestrates from a number of countries is not only a dangerous move, it is an act that makes the mentioned convoys legitimate targets. »

Mr Ryabkov also said that the “security guarantees” demanded by Russia from the West, including an assurance that Ukraine would never join NATO, were no longer valid. “The situation has changed completely. The question now is to obtain the implementation of the objectives of our leaders,” he said, referring to the “demilitarization” of Ukraine that the Kremlin is calling for. "If the Americans are willing, we can of course resume the dialogue," he nevertheless added, specifying that Moscow was ready on the subject of the Start agreements, the limitation of nuclear arsenals. “It all depends on Washington,” he said.


Personal opinion
According to me an other proof of the russian difficulties and incapacities against strong UKR resistance. A sign of weakness

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Previously V was stated as Naval infantry. But I think it's erronous and used for Airborne (it's always BMD) and Chechen.

No, this is just "northern direction troops"

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

with initial kills of the T-72B3

T-72B. This was 6th tank regiment with older tanks.

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, Taranis said:

12:54
Russia Threatens to Target Western Arms Deliveries to Ukraine
Russia's deputy foreign minister threatened the United States on Saturday, saying Russia could target its arms shipments to Ukraine, where the Russian military has been advancing for two weeks. Sergei Ryabkov warned in an interview with the Pervy Kanal TV channel:

“We have warned the United States that the delivery of weapons it orchestrates from a number of countries is not only a dangerous move, it is an act that makes the mentioned convoys legitimate targets. »

Mr Ryabkov also said that the “security guarantees” demanded by Russia from the West, including an assurance that Ukraine would never join NATO, were no longer valid. “The situation has changed completely. The question now is to obtain the implementation of the objectives of our leaders,” he said, referring to the “demilitarization” of Ukraine that the Kremlin is calling for. "If the Americans are willing, we can of course resume the dialogue," he nevertheless added, specifying that Moscow was ready on the subject of the Start agreements, the limitation of nuclear arsenals. “It all depends on Washington,” he said.


Personal opinion
According to me an other proof of the russian difficulties and incapacities against strong UKR resistance. A sign of weakness

Agreed. They've already said at the start of the invasion that they regarded western aid to Ukraine as an act of war, and if they had the ability to hit weapons convoys before now I'm pretty certain they would have. This looks a lot more like empty rhetoric than some change in Russian willingness to do things.

[BletchleyGeek]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

First spotted Russian loitering minition UAV usage. One of them was shot down over the center of Kyiv, trying to hit the building of the bank. The fragments fell on the roof,  causing a fire, but it was quicly extinguished

Looks like this is KUB UAV of Zala-Aero company: https://zala-aero.com/production/bvs/kyb-uav/.

It can carry up to 3 kg of HE, but this one reportedly carried 1 kg.

Very interesting... and terrifying! The lining with round fragments tells you what this drone is about.

As far as I understand these UAVs are not autonomous like the Turkish Kargu (basically a flying mine that homes onto whatever looks like a "designated target").

That little one is more like a cheap miniature cruise missile, and it has also an image based target designation mode. It could likely be the case that someone was guiding it into the target. BTW @Haiduk, are you still in Kyiv? Are the Ukraine security forces there still engaging Russian Armed SOF infiltrated in the city?

[Haiduk]

Russia issued a video of first helicopter landing and assault of Hostomel airfield 24th of February. There is no combat on the video, but there are some abandoned trucks and Varta MRAP of 4th National Guard Operative brigade

 

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

@Haiduk, are you still in Kyiv? Are the Ukraine security forces there still engaging Russian Armed SOF infiltrated in the city?

Yes, I'm here. I doub't they are all Russian SOF or army recons. Most of them are our 5th column.

[c3k]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Kharkiv. The video was filmed about week ago. Russian jet drops a bomb on the city. The cathidreal was damaged in this strike

 

 

It seems to me that the Cathedral may very well have been the intended target of that attack.

[John Kettler]

16 hours ago, akd said:

Apparently the FSB letter previously posted is just one in a series (this could, of course, be someone’s creative writing project, but the recent arrests in the FSB suggest perhaps not):

I will say that the 4th letter gives me some pause that this is authentic.

akd,

Many thanks for these! Found the first three not only to be extremely credible as to content but to have the kind of Russian zeitgeist, world weariness, being ground down by the system itself, impossible demands, collapse of information systems and more that very much echoes other writings I've seen from disillusioned Soviet and Russian sources, such as Cold War defectors, immigrants and more. If things are this bad near the top of the intelligence system, no wonder the Russian Army in Ukraine is in shambles. A force that has KIA estimates which could be off by as much as a factor of five (5)--2000, 500 or 10,000, that has whole divisions or more entirely offline as far as comms; which can't supply what it already has and would not only suffer a terrible logistics hit if it did send in more forces, but would also result in a massacre of the reinforcements, is a force on the verge of outright collapse. And for him to invoke a Russian future far west than the Bolsheviks is the very stuff of nightmares, except the Bolsheviks had no access to nukes, BW, CW or R weapons!

Ref the fourth letter, it not only doesn't read like the other three, but it has an entirely different vibe to it, if you will. The writer is far more controlled, far less stressed, is operating cognitively from a much higher place of functionality. In terms of approach and tone, this is more like a briefing than of one acutely concerned, exhausted, largely demoralized and overwhelmed  Russian writing to another. For these and other reasons, I agree with those saying it's not the same person. Believe that one or another, the original writer has been put out of business so he could no longer expose the realities of what's going on in Russia, especially as it applies to the war. Instead, we now have a fairly comprehensive presentation of the internal story that will now be promulgated internally and externally.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[BeondTheGrave]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, I'm here. I doub't they are all Russian SOF or army recons. Most of them are our 5th column.

I cant add any reactions to your posts anymore, Ill just say stay safe! Well wishes to you and your family.