How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

In part, this is because Ukraine is still operating some of its fighters.

Not sure how much is causality and how much is correlation to be honest.  I hear a lot of western analysis scratching their heads on why the Russian Airforce have not - now entering week 2 - swept the skies, destroyed the Ukrainian AF on the ground and started doing SEAD. 

Of course the bigger question is "how does one do SEAD against MANPADs?".  That UK Starstreak can reach to 23,000 feet, so the old dynamic of having mid altitude air superiority once you take out SAMs could be in trouble.  Further, now drones look to own below 20000 feet.  

Either way, I think we can agree that more Mig 29s for Ukraine is a good thing operationally and tactically, strategically and politically it gets dicey hence the hand-wringing.

[akd]

Translation: we will be more careful about forcing conscripts to sign contracts before crossing the border.

Edited March 9, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, akd said:

Russian convoy on the move somewhere. Still being edgelord trolls with their Soviet flags:

The equivalent of the Bundeswehr driving tanks into battle flying Third Reich battle flags.  Which is part of why we are in the situation we are in.  There was no equivalent of de-Nazification of Russia after its collapse.  Russians have not fully come to terms with how bad the Soviet Union was.  In fact, Putin went to great effort back on his earlier days to rehabilitate the Soviet Union's image.  IIRC he shut down some museums dedicated to educating people about the Gulags.

9 minutes ago, akd said:

In part, this is because Ukraine is still operating some of its fighters.

It's a chicken and egg thing.  The Ukrainians are still operating some of its fighters because Russia has been too timid about taking them out, which means that Russia's air ops are timid because there are still some Ukrainian fighters in the air.

Steve

[Probus]

55 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We have avoided talking about the Dragon on this thread but maybe it is time to broaden the discussion.  I personally think that the only real potential “winners” in this war are NATO and China.  NATO has just gained what it so badly needed, relevance.  Unless we are talking a total collapse of Russia, NATO will have a job out to the 22nd century thanks to Putin.

China is the other potential big winner.  This war will likely push Russia into Chinas orbit-ack the historical trust but in order to have a semblance of an economy, Russia will swallow all that because, money.  That puts all of Russia’s resources in Chinas hands, as we just cancelled them, and for cheap.  This will continue to feed Chinas massive ambitions with the means to do it.  My thinking is that China is many things but normally they are not stupid, so a overt military action could totally screw up the good deal they are staring at for now good reason.  Like Ukraine, Taiwan is not a existential emergency for China but also like Ukraine we do know nations are very capable of acting irrationally.  So I think it comes down to a question of China remaining smart and quietly making major gains while we get all scope eye on Russia and Europe.

Well said.

8 minutes ago, db_zero said:

A no fly zone over Ukraine is not just about the risk of NATO shooting down Russian aircraft.

The Russians have sophisticated SAMs like the S300 and S400 that would have to be suppressed. These sites are surrounded by mobile and static anti aircraft positions that would also need to be suppressed. 
 

The long range of the S300/400 and the overlapping nature of a layered air defense network would mean NATO would also have to suppress positions in Belarus and Russia itself.

We’re talking a major escalation. That’s why it’s completely off the table.

 

A no-fly zone is off the table... right now... but what I've been trying to say is that stealth technology makes destroying these S300/400s less relevant.  From what I understand (and hopefully is the reality), F-35s and F-22s could enforce a no-fly zone and stay well out of harm from these weapon systems, even at 10%, 5% (, or 1%) of their rated kill ranges.  Am I missing something? "Ukranian" forces can take out some of the more pesky air defences in Ukraine. 

But again I want to re-iterate that Russia will most likely see this as provocation enough to hit NATO forces with missile strikes in the very least.  And we don't want this turning into WWIII.

 

[keas66]

17 minutes ago, db_zero said:

A no fly zone over Ukraine is not just about the risk of NATO shooting down Russian aircraft.

The Russians have sophisticated SAMs like the S300 and S400 that would have to be suppressed. These sites are surrounded by mobile and static anti aircraft positions that would also need to be suppressed. 
 

The long range of the S300/400 and the overlapping nature of a layered air defense network would mean NATO would also have to suppress positions in Belarus and Russia itself.

We’re talking a major escalation. That’s why it’s completely off the table.

 

Does a No Fly zone have  to require  Allied  Enforcement flights ? Could it not just be a statement of intent backed up by greatly enhanced ground based anti air assets ?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, akd said:

 

Well, we all know this is a bunch of Bull.  There's no way conscripts haven't been in Ukraine since day one and continue to be.  Just because they were forced to sign their names, or had their names signed by their commander, doesn't really count.

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2022/02/27/russia-reportedly-forcing-conscripts-to-sign-military-contracts-to-be-sent-to-ukraine-families-left-in-dark-1206318/

Steve

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Probus said:

Well said.

A no-fly zone is off the table... right now... but what I've been trying to say is that stealth technology makes destroying these S300/400s less relevant.  From what I understand (and hopefully is the reality), F-35s and F-22s could enforce a no-fly zone and stay well out of harm from these weapon systems, even at 10%, 5% (, or 1%) of their rated kill ranges.  Am I missing something? "Ukranian" forces can take out some of the more pesky air defences in Ukraine. 

But again I want to re-iterate that Russia will most likely see this as provocation enough to hit NATO forces with missile strikes in the very least.  And we don't want this turning into WWIII.

 

Probus, I must respectfully disagree.  Russia is going to attack NATO over this?  and trigger article 5?  He already said sanctions are an act of war and did nothing.  Attacking NATO in any way means NATO airpower can smash the mass of his military power while it's strung out on roads in Ukraine.  He aint doin' no such thing IMO. 

[danfrodo]

Above was about the MIGs, not the no fly zone.  No fly zone IS a massive escalation.

[Probus]

For reference.

[sburke]

'Sent as cannon fodder:' Video appears to show a Siberian governor being confronted by relatives of a Russian riot police unit sent into Ukraine (msn.com)

some small cracks

 

[keas66]

2 minutes ago, Probus said:

For reference.

I am curious how  encirclement occurs if you only remain on the roads ?

[db_zero]

The best SEAD against man portable systems may just be a good rapid ground offensive backed up by effective reconnaissance and artillery or sniper teams to kill and suppress the shooters.

I suspect most of the shooters of these anti tank and anti air systems are killing Russians and surviving due to the lack of tactical finesse and motivation of the Russian forces and poor operational planning and execution.

The Israelis lost a lot of aircraft in the 73 war. Once they got stand-off weapons and ECM pods from the US it helped but the real success was when they took the offensive and started destroying SAM sites with direct assaults or artillery fire.

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by db_zero

[Probus]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Probus, I must respectfully disagree.  Russia is going to attack NATO over this?  and trigger article 5?  He already said sanctions are an act of war and did nothing.  Attacking NATO in any way means NATO airpower can smash the mass of his military power while it's strung out on roads in Ukraine.  He aint doin' no such thing IMO. 

I really hope so @danfrodo

[Haiduk]

Next Syria... Russians bombed children clinic and maternity hospital in Mariupol. 

 The size of bomb crater

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[db_zero]

stealth technology is not 100% foolproof. A F-117 was shot down over Bosnia in the 90s 

Stealth technology doesn’t make you invisible. Reduces signature, range you’re detected and reaction time.

There is still a risk that a stealth aircraft gets shot down.

[dan/california]

7 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Looks like it aint over until its over

 

 

Trent has been the single best analyst of this war so far, but this post is not very good. Russia has forty BTGs left in the entire country. I don't think Putin can afford to commit his very last soldier to Ukraine with economy in free fall. There are no shortage of unhappy ethnic groups in Russia. If they noticed the nearest tank was a thousand miles away and not coming back anytime soon there would be consequences.

[danfrodo]

I wonder if Russia is withholding notices of death or injury from families of soldiers.  Having ~10,000+ casualties in a couple weeks is enough to start to get folks talking.  The conscript lie from Putin shows he's scared of public opinion, of these conscripted kids getting killed and the families spreading the word.  

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder if Russia is withholding notices of death or injury from families of soldiers.  Having ~10,000+ casualties in a couple weeks is enough to start to get folks talking.  The conscript lie from Putin shows he's scared of public opinion, of these conscripted kids getting killed and the families spreading the word.  

there are some signs of that already.  Part of the censorship push is probably motivated by this.  It will slow the response but eventually it will percolate through.  It isn't just that they are casualties, but that they even had a shooting war.  As with so many things about this war Russia did not prepare its population, in fact they lied as much to them as everyone else.

[Butschi]

4 hours ago, Suchy said:

So NATO, as an alliance, is afraid to take responsibility for such a decision and gives us, as Poland, the green light to hand over the planes ourselves, as Poland, and not NATO as a whole. And in general we want to hand over the planes, but not as Poland alone with all its consequences, but as the whole of NATO. And yesterday the Polish authorities poker-facedly said check. And the truth came out... NATO officially does not want to take responsibility...

What really happend: Poland announced they would hand the planes over via Ramstein Airbase without a) asking the USA beforehand whether they wanted to do it and without telling the Germans either via whos airspace the transfer what have gone. Just pushing the responsibility to someone else without asking and then complaining that they didn't want to take it... well, doesn't sound like the best idea to me.

[Haiduk]

Mykolaiv oblast, Russian 2S19 fell in the irrigation canal and was abandoned

[danfrodo]

Maybe a non-NATO country will step up.  We just need to facilitate a handover, geeeeeez, this is like some kind of farce.

[Battlefront.com]

If you guys scan back in this thread to when the war started I said that Putin had about a week or two MAX where he could stall out the death notices (they are supposed to be put out within 2 days IIFC).  Putin obviously figured this war would be long over by then, so even if there were casualties he'd have an epic victory story hogging the news headlines.  The grumbling over the deaths would be minimal because of that.

However, now Putin is going to have to fess up to the losses without a good news headline to counterbalance it.  Of course the news is so bad that he's going to try and obscure it as best he can, but the information will get out there.  And when it does...

Steve

[Commanderski]

3 hours ago, db_zero said:

Rows of soldiers marching, shiny tanks and afv go rolling past the stand.

Hard to do when most of their tanks and afv's are destroyed

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

What really happend: Poland announced they would hand the planes over via Ramstein Airbase without a) asking the USA beforehand whether they wanted to do it and without telling the Germans either via whos airspace the transfer what have gone. Just pushing the responsibility to someone else without asking and then complaining that they didn't want to take it... well, doesn't sound like the best idea to me.

I lost the link, but there was an article about this whole mess that explained that NATO was trying to do the transfer quietly so they could have sneaked them into Ukraine.  Unfortunately, an element of Polish "populists" decided to crow abut it publicly to get themselves some more likes on Facebook.  There's one thing you can count on a populist politician doing... grabbing attention and damn the consequences are.  Doesn't mater what country, what period of history you look at this is a universal trait of populism.

Steve

[danfrodo]

At least there's still lots of AA & AT missiles arriving, w lots of other useful gear.  Hopefully millions of MREs also. 

So on what Putler has available:  I am given to understand that he has ~160 BTG in his armed forces.  Is that correct?

And ~100 are already committed to Ukraine?