Billy Ringo

This is only a partial truth. Marders in storage of private firms are not in use of the Bundeswehr, yet cannot be sold to Ukraine because of political decisions. Or Leo1s to be sold by other countries, who lack the permission by whom?
It is a fair question to ask the people in charge, who would the Bundeswehr defend against? France? New Austria-Hungaria? Any and all military equipment with the intend of keeping Europe peaceful has the highest marginal use in Ukraine right now where it would be able to put Russias military back decades, and safe Ukrainian lifes instead of dusting and rusting.
NATO obligations are a nice throwaway line to say its not in the hands of the politicans, who for the last how many decades couldnt care less about NATO obligations of >2% GDP, 30days of ammo storage, actually working vehicles,... but it sure is a nice excuse right now. The same one that was used for the Dingos, who then suddenly could be sent quite easily (even though the Bundeswehr does not have a surplus..) after enough political pressure was felt.

This a good long read and worthwhile, thanks.
Surprising to me that Russian troop morale is holding up sufficiently to hold a front line of a few hundred kilometres and keep on attacking daily with heavy losses.  While propagandists in Moscow talk passionately about defending the motherland against Nato, surely the soldiers on the ground are able to see through the rhetoric.  Why should they continue to risk their lives for Putin’s mad dreams of conquest?
At the beginning of this war many people thought that Russian morale would not survive contact with reality, retreats would turn into routs, and surrenders would be large scale.  The Russian homefront would turn against the war and maybe, even, change might start in Russia itself.  It has not happened.
There is a worthwhile article in the UK Guardian today by Timothy Garton Ash
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/17/ukraine-greatest-threat-russian-world-vladimir-putin
According to Timothy, Russia is disintegrating.
None of the neighbours, including Ukraine, will sleep soundly until Russian hearts and minds change, beginning with those soldiers in the front lines who are continuing to die rather than surrender.  I just don't get it.  If Ukraine can win over the Russians doing the fighting then the war will end quickly - forget Wagner, they are just there for the money ... 

That kind of thing can be a lot harder than it sounds, as we got to see over the past couple years.  It's not just the assembly plant where they put the bang in the bombs, but all of the supply chain that leads to that.  The metal suppliers that provide particular alloys, the chemical suppliers that produce the components of the explosives, their suppliers of precursor materials, etc.  And you're trying to do it in a world that has spent decades tuning everything to be just-in-time, carefully forecasted so there's no slack in anybody's supply chain because it costs money to keep extra material around, or even worse, buy it and have it go to waste.

Russian missiles hit DniproGES hydro power plant today (lloks like one missed and fell in the water)
Overall statistic of the day
76 missiles were launched from frigate "Admiral Makarov" (20 Kalibrs) and aircraft Tu-95, Su-35, Tu-22M3 (Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-22, Kh-59, Kh-31). 60 were intercepted. 
Additionally Russians launched 27 S-300 missiles in ground attack mode on close frontline areas. Heavy infrastructure damages in Kharkiv. 
In Kyiv subway is stopped. Lack of electricity, no water supply and heating on half of left-bank districts. On right bank situation is better. I now can write from my work on right bank. I hope I will have internet at home

A-50 AWACS with Su-30M escort took off over Belarus. MIG-31 in the air as a bait, probably. They try to reveal our AD positins. Tu-95 still in air, their radio exchange heard to this time.
Su-25 took off from Lida airfield in Belarus. Maybe also as a bait.
On present time about 70 missiles were launched, 20 Kalibrs, 3 Kh-59, 2 Kh-31, rest - Kh-101/555

Oh, I am a resident of a miserable corrupt country, so grateful to you for your explanation of my place in the universe. Now I finally understood all my mistakes written by me earlier. I repent for everything I said in your direction. After all, the future of my country depends only on you and your majestic opinion. And its pitiful eternally whining politicians. Please accept my apologies for them and I beg you not to stop the supply of weapons please, please, please!

Ukraine is in a fight for its survival.  If some western leaders are offended by the urgency in UKR requests, F THEM.  
I had a dream last night where russians invaded and took half of my town.  I was a civilian stuck behind RU lines but knew I was on borrowed time and had to get to friendly lines.  I figured there was one sector I might be able to sneak through but knew if spotted I'd be shot on sight.  It was flippin' terrifying.  And Zeleban et al are living it for real. 

https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript
Pulling quotes from it, y'all will be happy to hear Commander in Chief Zeluzhny strongly supports your view, the objective is killing Russians.
 
A General shot himself, how Soviet of him.
He believes Russia is set for the long haul, including new offensives.
Interesting, just plain states Ukraine is prepping for a new offensive and is thereby holding stuff in reserve instead of feeding it for the current frontline. Nvm, preparing for new Russian offensives, building a reserve to counter it when it comes.
Whatever, it's paywalled so you get the whole interview bar a bit.
https://www.economist.com/syrsky-interview
I'll pull the quotes as well below.
Okay, I lied it's the whole interview. Hmm. I've been worried about Russia mobilizing, about the lack of pushback on mobilized being shoved into Ukraine, the idea that Russia is defeated is not coming true and certainly Ukraine's leading commanders aren't operating under that assumption. The west needs to react accordingly or risk Ukraine being pushed back even.

Recall in 2014 the failure of the West to stand up to Russia and support Ukraine, which extended to weapons and equipment support refusals beyond 2014 till very recently. In hindsight, had the West pushed back on Russia, this invasion, the deaths and suffering in this invasion, and the worldwide effects and instability caused by this war might have all been avoided.
In return for our accommodation with Russia we have literally gotten nothing. The west got literally nothing from treating Putin and Russia with silver gloves. In that time period from 2014 - 2022, Russia has only in every way poisoned and sought to defeat the West, subvert it, and this invasion, had it been successful, was just the next step for Russia to challenge NATO, the EU, and the U.S hegemony worldwide.
So...to sit back and grumble, and complain about having to help Ukraine defend itself, ignoring the entire reality that the international system that obliges states to defend the sovereignty of another (UN charter) is a construct of the West largely and for the West's benefit, and that Russia's goal was to knock it all down, well...tbh we are acting ungrateful to Ukraine for handing the EU, NATO, a chance to stop western decline.
To bring up a quote from the capt, bringing Russia back to the international order that he states is a goal of the West, ignores the suffering, instability, and the desire to overthrow the West and reassert Russia as a great power capable of contesting the West on every front.
In return for treating Russia with kid gloves, we only got a wolf that sought to annex Ukraine and reassert itself in Europe with violence and malaise.
Russia is our enemy. Russia is hostile to every aspect of the West, in the sense that it wants to regain influence and power that the West holds.
That Ukraine and the Ukrainian people want to join the West fully and be part of the U.S hegemony, should not be ignored nor treated with disdain especially in a world where Western cultural and social influence is under assault and in decline.
Again, Russia has shown no desire to do nothing more than stab a knife into the West. Ukraine has shown clear desire to join the West. Can we not act like stuck up people, who are giving alms to the poor and expect gratitude when we are partly responsible for them being poor in the first place?
Ukraine wants western tanks partly to kill Russians, partly to protect the lives of their servicemen cause surprise, western tanks are built to preserve the lives of the crew.
Have you seen Russia and how they treat their soldiers? We expect Ukraine to operate by the highest levels of western morals and treat Russian soldiers with compassion, without Western money, or equipment to protect their own.
Not to mention we give F-16s to Iraq, which actually is resentful to the West (with good reason), Saudi Arabia gets patriot batteries, F-16s, and stabs us regularly, and we just threw away so much in Afghanistan, and here we have a country and people united as never before, and seeking to turn a enemy of the West into a pancake and we are grossly acting with callousness.
It's one thing to be cautious about Russia. It's another thing to just treat Ukraine with disdain for daring to ask, to demand, to beg in the first place.

We thank you but we never will infratiatingly dance in front of West, like this did former president. And we consider West does in part of our military supply much less than could be. 
Maybe you can't hear other side of true, that not only evil Putin led to this war.  Western elites with own "real politic" and "don't bozzer the bear" toward Russia led to this war too. So, we have a right not to ASK support, but to DEMAND. From you, guarantors of our sovereignty, who gave us toilet paper of Budapesht Memorandum in exchange on our disarming. 
We really can't understand why US piss off in Iraq hundreds of Abrams, Strikers, Humvees, which fell in the ISIS hands, but Ukraine have to beg each dozen of M113 or M777. We can't understand words of western politics during "Phase 1" that "Western weapon too complicated for Ukrainians, we should give them old Soviet systems". As if we some tumba-yumba tribe, which never seen more complicated weapon than a bow. We can't understand speed  of decisions making, when even about Gepards were more month of discussions. And only now we at last (after 7-8 months of war) we have been receiveing first modern AD complexes. And thanks God and US, Patriots in the way. Patriots, wich we beg since first days. What your politics wait theese months? Have been shaking and scaring of "escalation"? 
So, if I hear tunes "how dare theese unpleasant Ukies to demand more weapon? We can just stop it if you don't like something!" my reaction will be the same. Beacause there is imagination West already more afraid of Russian defeat, than Russian "escalation" and because of this supports us only to stop Russian advance and replenish our losses, but not to maintain our fast and decisive victory.     
 

Seriously you are approaching the line where I normally get paid with this list.  But here are some short shots because I love you guys that much:
1.  Could be either to be honest.  How the Russians vacate the occupied regions will matter in the post-war narratives, but in the short term either will do - negotiated likely gives the best chance of keeping Russia from collapsing, maybe and depending who one talks to.  Defeat in detail and total collapse a la Kharkiv would remove any doubt of Ukrainian victory but may trigger a Russian identity crisis of epic proportions.  An orderly withdrawal set us up for “stabs in the back” myths.  Neither is great strategically to be honest but one second to midnight at a time.
2.  Tough one, only guaranteed allied pressure and ultimatums will be at the Russian border - UA punching into Russia in a ground incursion is definitely off the table.  So are the pre-Feb 24 borders enough?  At what point does the west get bored of this and calls for a stop?  Pre-2014?   Not sure.  One thing is sure, Putin needs to be gone before any of this becomes an option.  He is never going to accept the pre- Feb 24 borders as it means after all this they gained nothing - he will be tossed out a window and he knows it.  While I suspect pre-Feb 24 is the minimum western allies will accept.  Who blinks where and when is one of the biggest unknowns in all this.
3.  Sanctions will likely stay in place until a level of reparations are agreed and warcrimes prosecution is conducted - if we renormalize with Russia without that then shame on us, and the western order is going to look weak and shaky.  After Bucha, blatant civilian targeting across Ukraine and numerous other warcrimes, if we let that slide then the LOAC is in tatters and so is western credibility.  Russia get re-normalization if they agree.  We can start buying gas again etc and perhaps return to whatever weird normal comes next.  Russia could simply say “Screw you” and continue its slide into a third world nation.  China and India may do business with them but Russia will get taken to the cleaners as their negotiating position will be incredibly weak.
4.  Sure it could.  This is Steve’s point - with enough Russian war dead the people in Russia may simply buck.  More likely is a drug deal with some elites to depose him will be made and we get a bunch of gangsters with slightly cleaner hands. Total military defeat will definitely do it but in that scenario the risk of total collapse of Russia goes up in my mind. Transition of political power will likely not be orderly or peaceful in a total military defeat, or at least the risks go up.  But the old bastard has had 20 years to solidify power and surround himself with dependent power players.  Tough and tall order to remove him early but that is where we are.
5.  Definitely. If Ukraine takes back the occupied regions by force, they are going to lose people doing so. Handing them back over to the international is very unlikely at that point.  Better to have Russia pull out before that point and we get a chance to sell ZOS concept.  The risk to occupation is one can go from being the “good guy” to bad in an afternoon.  If Haikduk is right and they simply go quietly - fantastic, but I have my doubts.  If they do go all insurgency (partisans is the wrong word) it is going to get ugly right when Ukraine needs the full support of the international community for reconstruction.  Better to make them someone else’s problem for a few years until the see what western investment looks like and beg to reintegrate with Ukraine rather than by force.  This sucks as there are a lot of people simply caught in the middle in those regions but this is ugly work when one gets into ethnic based conflicts. However this goes down Ukraine will be selling Ukraine in how it deals with those regions make no doubt about that. First hint of abuses and guys like Macgregor will be all over Fox News screaming about “Ukrainian Nazis” and why is the US spending billions etc.  Hell they will make it up anyway but real abuses may swing moderates - really hard to keep hands clean in an insurgency.
6.  Entry into NATO will be critical and we will waive whatever “rules” we have to in order to make it happen. Ukraine needs to be squarely in a western orbit after all this in order for this to be a clear western “win” for the rules based order.  I am sure Turkey and a few other nations will make duck  sounds but the US can buy off or break arms when it has too.  Victory for the West is Ukraine inside NATO - hell they are already better armed than half of NATO, with NATO weapons and training.  We mess that up then we risk the point of this entire war and the political level in NATO knows this.
7. Sanctions.  And at the rate things are going removing Russia’s state sponsor of terror designation - if Russia goes on this list - https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism/. They become pretty toxic pretty fast.  US has not pulled this trigger yet but the EU has https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20221118IPR55707/european-parliament-declares-russia-to-be-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism
All that stays in place until the conditions we are talking about are met - even after the shooting stops.  I am not an economist but this does not look good:
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/
Now imagine that after 5 years, 10 years?  At some point they will hit bottom but Putin is not a Kim, and the Russians will likely not accept becoming North Korea either.
So navigating to this point is going to be incredibly hard and fraught with failure points, with cliffs on either side.  For example Russia may not negotiate and Putin hangs on too long. Then the Russian collapse will be worse, Russia in free fall.  Less likely but possible if Russia drags this out until western resolve falters.  Or we fail on the follow through and leave Ukraine hanging on reconstruction. Or someone really missteps and the conflict widens.
I am often afraid people think this is easy and simple - destroy the RA, they will leave, Russians will pick a new government and we can all get back to normal.  Normal has left the building.  Navigation of this crisis is incredibly hard.  We need to keep the west together on this through the war and well beyond in the face of a recession and political divides. Ukraine has to win the war and the peace afterwards while landing on its feet facing west. Russia needs to lose but not too much, and have a relatively soft landing.  Russia needs to get back in line and re- normalize.  All of these concepts are in tension and could fly apart very easily.  Oh and the spectre of a 70 year old pin head triggering WW3 is still out there.  This is a strategic minefield if there ever was one - makes the Cuban Missile crisis look quaint.

I'm 66 and a cancer survivor. I still run 4 times a week, bike, and swim at the Y. Took a bit to get back to seriousness after chemo but feeling strong now. One thing they told me was that they see that people who are in good health and good shape have the fewest issues handling chemo. Gotta' say I'm glad I WAS in good shape because chemo was a b1tch. Don't recommend. Zero stars out of 5.
My wife is also a runner. She's 68 and looks like she's about 50. Our ultra running days are behind us but I can't stop running. 
Dave

Random thoughts and opinions:
Germany has no legal obligation to support Ukraine.  Nor even a legal obligation to significantly invest in their own defense. But....based on what I've read over the past 10 months they've neglected their military and NATO military obligations for years.  Self interest and what could be described as free-loading off the protection of the US and other NATO countries won't be easily forgotten.   If and when the **** hits the fan, that protection may not be quickly forthcoming and they might very well find themselves scrambling.  Or having to learn a new language. When trying to discern public opinion within Russia, would it be totally off the mark to consider that Moscow and surrounding more progressive areas have a significantly different view on the war than the rest of the more rural areas/territories?   When trying to figure out how to deal with Russia--would it be reasonable to have one general approach for Moscow and another approach for the rest of the country? As always, appreciate the experience, input and opinions from everyone on this forum.  That means everyone, even if I disagree and find them to be boring, inarticulate, tedious, self-absorbed, obtuse, ill-advised and talk with a funny accent.
Merry Christmas to all.
 

Ah, the Americans are not that bad

And their we have the German position in a nutshell. Unless I read it wrong it says "of course we won't REALLY fight for Poland". And that is why everyone else is mad at them.
 

You may be being a little harsh on FC, I for one have gotten a lot out of his contributions here.
...But for reference, if you click on your profile at the top of the screen, one of the dropdown items is Ignored Users.

I am unsure where the ignore button is unfortunately.
They don't need to be immediately sent to Ukraine of course, but pledges and public promises for the creation and maintaining of supplies is important. Big portions of the industrial capacity of Ukraine is status unknown or damaged or knocked out, including military repair. Restarting and increasing NATO and Soviet ammunition is continuing, but I believe Soviet air frames are largely phrased out in Europe no? Other operators of Soviet era aircraft are unlikely to be friendly to NATO. The sooner training and procurement can begin, the easier the time for Ukraine to phrase it in especially if this war continues.
As for uninformed, Ukraine itself is leading the requests for tanks, long range missiles, (tho recently this switched to air defense) so I unsure why Ukraine is asking for it if not militarily useful. Ukraine led requests for western aircraft. I remember when it was begging for western anti-ship missiles. I strongly recall Russian sentiment that it would be unacceptable escalation for it to be provided. It's been a constant narrative the entire conflict, even as Russia escalated it's demands and expanded their aims and set new lines like annexing territories. 
But I am not ignorant to risks of escalation, but suggesting Putin is going to flip the switch due to targeting of inside Russian borders, again Russia has claimed the Donbas and Crimea as it's territory, we are clearly standing on red lines.
 

Sort of a coincidence - another try at an endgame using elites:
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3757293-russias-elites-know-theyve-lost-the-war-they-should-jump-ship/
What the West can and should do is encourage the realist Russians to jump ship by offering them, in the spirit of Cold War attempts to encourage defections, comfortable lives under assumed names in the West, but in exchange for testimony against Putin and his comrades at the inevitably approaching war crimes trials in The Hague.
Not the solution in total, but perhaps one line of attack.
 

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/winning-the-adaptation-battle?r=1gv0l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Serviceman of 93rd mech.brigade says, their 4-months campaign in Bakhmut is over. They inflicted alot of losses to the enemy, but their losses also enough big. They are going to rotation for R&R (or likely already left the sector) and wish good luck to those, who will come to substitute them.
 
Maybe toughest brigade of AFU. Heavy fights since May under endless Russian arty rains southern from Izium and after this heaviest fights since autumn near Bakhmut. Thanks, guys, you are titans and no one Marvel superhero can't stand nearby
 

Man, I have so many questions re Wagner/Prigozhin within the Russian internal power structure.
From ISW today:
So, 
A. This, "Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin previously indirectly implied that Wagner forces will train Belgorod Oblast's “people’s militia” in the oblast “to defend the borders of the oblast.” means they will become a future reserve of the WG.
B. This, "The battalions’ independent status from the Russian MoD and Prigozhin’s involvement with Belgorod Oblast officials may indicate the battalions’ affiliation with the Wagner Group" is not a "may", the WG are setting up , funding and training this militia.
C. This, "Prigozhin, however, denied Wagner’s involvement in training the Belgorod Oblast militia", is obviously an irrelevant  lie because -
D. this "the presence of some Wagner former servicemen in the area" - there are numerous articles and anecdotes that no one "leaves" the WG. You could get wounded and discharged, but you never actually leave. It's a mafia, a criminal gang with a tank park; you're member for life, no term limits. "former servicemen" means active/latent agents of the WG. Once you're in you never leave.
Questions...
Why the hell is there a major military formation within Russia that is not beholden to Putin personally, directly? Why does that formation have access to divisional level assets and theater level strike aircraft?  Why does that formation have its own, separate & independent R&D facility? Why is it allowed to train its own militia and co-opt the local government within a critical province Russia is an autocracy that has a fully-fledged military, extensive and diverse internal security formations and complete control of the media. The WG seems to be setting up just like the Iranian IRGC - a separate military force with its own economic, political, military & industrial base. The KGB did build up to something similar but more of a politico-military aspect, not so much the economic side. Maybe if they had, they'd have come out of the fall as much more overtly coherent organisation. 
Is Prig building a literal power base for after Putin? Putin lets him construct his internal power base, with the agreement that Prig will protect Pootler after he steps aside? Prig is far ahead of anyone else except Kadyrov, who has already achieved his own fiefdom.
If Ukraine actively breaks the WG, as a functioning military force (full-on HIMARSes its leadership structures, bombs its internal facilities, turns its elites on each other with betrayals/assassinations, etc) then how does that affect Russian internal power politics? How does that affect Pootlers execution of the war, if his "crack" formation is wasted? Is he safe with the MoD? Is the WG a blocking force on the MoD writ large? That is, the MoD cant leave Ukraine if the WG is locked in battle?
I've been thinking about this a lot, that the end state of the war is not dependent on battlefield success, but a combination of  specific victories against specific Russian formations/power structures.
UKR can kill hundreds of thousands of Russians but it simply doesn't matter, because Pootler and his gang simply dont care about Russians. He/They can lie and say anything, crush anyone, with utter impunity, so large numbers of dead Russians is irrelevant. What is relevant is who comes after Putin. I wonder if that's the real game already being played out right now in Russia, and how will it be determined by results in Ukraine.

Viktor Bout:  Was convicted by a jury in a Manhattan federal court of conspiracy to kill U.S. citizens and officials, delivery of anti-aircraft missiles, and providing aid to a terrorist organization, and was sentenced to the minimum 25 years' imprisonment,
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think much of this trade.  Cold blooded, connected and experienced killer with the potential to harm/kill Americans in the future.  Griner's "celebrity" status should not have made her a priority.
One of these two has the potential to kill Americans.  The other dribbles a basketball.

Sorry for not being present for some time (had, and actually still have, issues in IRL).
The execution video is an LDPR fake. It's an LDPR-style execution - these morons have no idea how actual Soviet-based militaries carry out any types of executions, so they imitate their own mob-like executions.
Apart from that - due to vastly enhanced UKR anti-drone defenses, actual RU drone operators stopped flying like this in August. But here RU operator literally flying over UKR heads for some time, risking extremely valuable asset, just to watch bunch of unimportant UKR troops doing some unimportant stuff. 
Go home, Ivan, you are too drunk to make believable fakes. 
Bakhmut's situation is gradually deteriorating, but it is far from grave. It's the standard RU bragging that we're all used to hearing.
In the north, after months of battering Yakovlivka village (northeast of Soledar), RU eventually flattened it, and it appears UKR defenders abandoned it. It means the Northen pincer is now sort of free and moving. Except that it does not give RU much - without Soledar, they are still a long way from surrounding Bukhmut.
After loss at the Industrial Zone, RU decided to shift the axis of assault to Pidhorne village on the outskirts of Bukhmut (northern outskirts of Bukhmut, between Bukhmut and Soledar). Important village, but aside from several talkes, I have yet to come across credible information, implying that things are not going well for RU there.
The Southern pincer is the most alarming. There are no significant UKR defenses there, so RU is gradually grinding toward Ivanivka. They're probing Klishiivka, the last settlement before Ivanivka. That's bad, but the first part of the Battle of the Bulge was also bad. Essentially, we are waiting a UKR counter-attack aimed at destroying the Southern pincer. Question is how far UKR will let RU penetrate. 
Bukhmut itself is not in grave danger, and there is no threat of it collapsing (yet). Fighting is taking place at the outer defenses, and it is not yet dangerous.

Viktor Bout:  Was convicted by a jury in a Manhattan federal court of conspiracy to kill U.S. citizens and officials, delivery of anti-aircraft missiles, and providing aid to a terrorist organization, and was sentenced to the minimum 25 years' imprisonment,
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think much of this trade.  Cold blooded, connected and experienced killer with the potential to harm/kill Americans in the future.  Griner's "celebrity" status should not have made her a priority.
One of these two has the potential to kill Americans.  The other dribbles a basketball.

First, I need to explain, who these guys are. A "Reichsbürger" (translates to 'citizen of the (Kaiser)Reich') is someone who does deny the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany. Instead, they believe that the Kaiserreich still exists. There's some quite funny legalese reasoning to explain this.
They wanted to topple the government and even had some old royal descendant who would then become Kaiser(?).
There is no connection to the Reichstag which is just the building of the parliament.
The round-up is the biggest ever here, even bigger than the ones we had against the left-wing terrorists in the 70s. It is of course all over the news here.
 
How dangerous is this group? Depends on the scope.
As a group to Germany itself, not so much. They have no backing in the population, and their plans are just delusional.
As individuals who cause acts of terrorism, more likely. They had the skills and the means.
The whole thing is bizarre, but unfortunately not the funny kind. I'm very happy that the state caught this group before something happened.