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Machor

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  1. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rare Russian equipment - BMP-1AM "Basurmanin" in Kupyansk, Kharkiv oblast
    BMP-1AM is BMP-1P with weapon module from BTR-82A. Such vehicles since 2021 were brought to service for units of Eastern military district, where remained enough BMP-1. Probably this BMP-1AM belongs to one of 10 BTGs of 5th CAA, which were moved to Ulraine from Far East three weeks ago.

  2. Like
    Machor reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes exactly.
    It is even developed to meet road traffic standards (like many NATO vehicles now).
    To complete my previous position, another major advantage is that a very experienced crew (see an officer commanding the vehicle, it is a sergeant who normally commands such a vehicle) may be able to fire on their own in complete autonomy without the need for a command vehicle because it has its own firing computer that you can initialising yourself (afterwards you have to know how to do it). The vehicle by himself calculate the trajectory etc. It's a very, very rare practice (at least when I was still in the army) but it's quite possible.
    The most common was that a command vehicle received the firing orders, sent them directly to our computer by crypted radio wave and you just had to press a button to aim it, load it (semi-automatic loading), add the propellant charge, close the bolt (also semi-automatic) and fire (no shell casing) ! To packup the barrel it's almost the same principle, it was enough to press a button (there are things to be careful or to close but the vehicle does not pack up with the force of the arms or with a crank ). 

    The gun also had the capacity to make direct fire (at view) but as I stated before it's not the best thing since it's "fragile" but could be good against bunker and fortified positions.

    About the inertial navigation system it is the same that is used on Rafale or nuclear submarine (that's a thing 😁)
  3. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Azov fighters brought some food to children, hiding in underground shelters of Azovstal. You can see systems of passages. Most of civilains say they came here as far as ater 20th of March, but some sit here from behinning of March. Kids say they want to see a sky and sun again - they didn't see it so far two months. 
     
  4. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukrianian snipers of 28th mech.brigade on positions somewhere in Kherson/Mykolaiv oblast

    UAR-10 .308 rifle (military version of Zbroyar Z-10) with thermal sight

  5. Like
    Machor reacted to Commanderski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  6. Like
    Machor reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    kind of funny.  With a significant amount of the armaments supply being former Russian equipment from former members of the Warsaw pact... Russia isn't really fighting NATO, they are fighting the Warsaw pact.    History is weird. 😎
  7. Like
    Machor reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    At the risk of veering a bit off topic, it's also not widely known that for about 20 years, HALF of all the uranium we used in US nuclear power plants came from decommissioned Soviet nuclear warheads. That's roughly 10% of all the US electric power generated for 20 years. At an American Nuclear Society technical meeting years ago, a Russian nuclear engineer was describing the process. Someone asked a question about a step in the conversion/downblending process. Everyone had the same question because it made no technical sense.
    "This? It's for political reasons only"
    Took everyone a second but then it was "Ohhhhhhhh"  (disguising the actual original composition).
     
    What better way to dispose of 10s of thousands of excess nuclear warheads?
    Dave
    PS -  Search for "Megatons to Megawatts"  - the name of the program
    PPS - I should clarify - this is NOT the same 50% that we buy, although we did buy this. This program ended in 2013
     
  8. Like
    Machor got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Will try to keep OT minimum and relate to Ukraine wherever relevant:
    RE: Russia and Turkey
    As I posted before, after killing 37 Turkish soldiers in Idlib in February 2020, Russia will not be able to normalize relations with Turkey without something truly major. In the very least, considering they required Erdoğan to apologize publicly and pay tens of millions of dollars as compensation for shooting down the Su-24 in 2015, there would need to be some sort of public performance by Putin. Even then, going back to an earlier post, there would remain the question of how Russia could offer to replace Turkey's strategic partnership with Ukraine, which is more than two decades old, going back to the secularist governments before Erdoğan (The Oplot was going to become Turkey's first national MBT as the Yatagan, which didn't happen because Russia refused to sell the license for the APS). Even Erdoğan's son-in-law, Bayraktar - Yes, THAT Bayraktar - is counting on Ukrainian deliveries of engines for his future drones. Even if the Russians were to offer: "Let's build Su-57, T-14, and S-500 together," it means little without a history of mutual trust.
    RE: Cyprus
    I have no intention of belittling the suffering of Greek and Turkish Cypriots, and would like to thickly underline that Turkish Cypriots have their own, distinct identity. They are overwhelmingly secular, Westernized, and highly educated. They would, if anything, look down on the religious fanatic types who support Erdoğan, and would likely be quite unhappy if Turkey wanted to annex them - in this sense, their case is very different from Donbas. Another example of the difference is that the previous president of Northern Cyprus, Mustafa Akıncı, publicly and vocally criticized Turkey's operations against the YPG in Syria.
    I refer to Turkey's military 'intervention' in Cyprus because it had the right to do so, as per the Treaty of Guarantee. In fact, Turkey approached the other guarantor, Britain, to launch a joint operation, but the British said they would only defend their own bases; many Turkish Cypriots who were cut off from the Turkish military saved their lives by finding refuge in the British bases. I firmly believe that had Britain taken part in the operation, the outcome would have been better for all the parties involved. The legality of Turkey's operation became questionable with its second stage, though the truly long-term problems that hinder a resolution result from policies enacted by Turkey's own military junta after 1980.
    As I wrote on the forum years ago, I think it was a huge mistake that Greek Cypriots were told to vote 'no' in the 2004 Annan referendum - when Turkish Cypriots voted 'yes' - with the expectation that a better 'deal' for reunifying the island would become possible as Turkey strove for EU membership. Had the referendum passed, there would now have been already a new generation of Cypriots who had grown up in a united country. It is a lesson that Ukraine should heed with regard to negotiating its occupied territories: Gaining control of the territory should top all other considerations of concessions.
  9. Like
    Machor reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No. This was a long planned test and despite the Kremlin's limp sabre rattling, they informed the US well ahead.
  10. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is not regular AFU unit, this is "Hospitallers" volunteer medical unit, operating since July 2014 for medical support of VUC Right Sector fighters. The founder of battalion is 18-years old (in 2014) Yana Zinevych, which was heavy injured in 2015 in car accident. Tasks of this unit - first aid on battlefield, evacuation from combat zone, surgical. Their tac-med level, level of equipment and motivation are very high. During the war on Donbas this unit evacuated from battlefield 2750 wounded soldiers of VUC and army units. In 2017 "Hospitallers" had 60 of personnel and aout 100 of reserve.
  11. Like
    Machor reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    How Hot Is Ukraine Gonna Get?
    Shieldmaiden.
     
     
  12. Like
    Machor reacted to SteelRain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I did that virtually for you^^
    quick and dirty setup meeting engagement in Steel Beasts 4.0:
    Leo1a5 with 105mm DM63 vs a T90S m2005 with 3BM42M (every 125mm APFSDS should be enough for the Leo1...)
    visibility 3000m
    first round frontal kill at 2940m with a DM63.
    I achieved multiple frontal first round kills between 2500 and 2900m.
    As soon as the T90 ist angled it gets easier + some terrain for an ambush and we can have a turret highjump contest.
    So i think the Leo 1 could work but you need experienced crews. Maybe we can send some retired leo1 crews from all over europe on a vacation



  13. Like
    Machor reacted to Combatintman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I suspect it would be an IMINT/SIGINT/ELINT lashup.  SIGINT will tell you what callsigns are speaking to each other and which nets are active.  As a simple illustration, if you have three callsigns on a regimental net - one will be the RHQ and the other two will be subordinate battalions/BTGs.  Easier if you're getting the raw voice transcript.  ELINT will be able to geolocate the transmitters which then allows you to cue up your IMINT sensor to collect at the geolocated areas.  Your IMINT will tell you what is physically there.
  14. Like
    Machor reacted to Fenris in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Interview with the UKR SPA gunner from that tik-Tok clip a few days back
     
  15. Like
    Machor reacted to MikeyD in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I recall a story from my old home town at the top of northern Maine (US). When the US was supplying Lend-Lease planes to Britain in WWII they built an air base right on the border with Canada. They'd fly the plane in then tow it the last few hundred yard across the border in order to abide by the letter of their neutral status agreement, or some such reason. If the US is doing something odd like that now they're no doubt looking at the fine print of what the are and aren't legally allowed to do without stepping over the line.
  16. Like
    Machor reacted to BeondTheGrave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A lot of people forget this but there were about 100k Chinese troops in North Vietnam through the 1960s. These units operated in not only construction battalions, fixing damage after American attacks, but AAA battalions. During which they were subject to American Aerial attack. These units of course also brought along their own 'security' units, which would have been capable of tripping up an attack north of the DMZ. Here is a document discussing some of their activities. These units, IIRC, were mostly removed in 1968 and 69 as North Vietnam switched from generally pro-Beijing towards Moscow (though ending up in a more neutral position as a factor of geography.)
    Fears that an escalation of the war against the north would bring in the Chinese were not without merit, as the Chinese heavily signaled their support for the north when these decisions (mid 1960s) were being made. 
  17. Like
    Machor reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Over 100 T-72M1R (with thermals, but  not upgraded apart from that) has disappeared from magazines. Police has no clues so far. It was reported about a week ago, right now thieves might've taken them anywhere, including Donbas. Same mysterious group has stolen a battalion worth of 2S1, some BM-21s and is continuously siphoning various artillery ammo. There will be a special investigation into this after the summer break I hear.
     
    I'd argue that if there weren't the political shenanigans, that 100 Leo1 could be a kind of interim help, that would be about to enter combat in few weeks, considerably earlier then M1. Even if all are taken out or break, this would still add some value, until the M1s arrive. Treat them as a disposable asset really, or just put them back on train to Germany for repairs and refit at some point.
    Anyway, I'm waiting for Scholz's announcement, let's see what PzH2000 in it's natural habitat can do finally
  18. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Slovakian artist Rado Javor, illustrator of Total War games series issiued two new artworks about the war in Ukraine. Recently he has drew series "seasons in Ukraine" about war of 2014-2015.
    Seasons:
    Spring in Ukraine (fighting around Sloviansk)

    Summer in Ukraine (Ukrainian July offensive)

    Autumn in Ukraine

    Winter in Ukraine (Donetsk airport)

    Also two other artworks
    Sunflower fields (tank ram of sen.lt Abramovych 12th of August 2014)

    Winter war (campaign of winter 2015)

    And new arts:
    The general

    Moskva

    More his arts on history, military, game, sci-fi tematics you can find here: https://www.deviantart.com/radojavor
  19. Like
    Machor got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This 'news' - which appears to have originated in the Greek press - was refuted by Russia. Russia will only enlarge its existing unofficial mission for expanded consular services - supposedly, Northern Cyprus has seen a large influx of Russians fleeing Russia:
     
    ??? - All NATO bases in Turkey are open and operational, including the major US airbase at İncirlik with B61 nuclear bombs and a Spanish Patriot battery, and the Kürecik radar station.
    Turkey intervened in on-going fighting between EOKA-B, Makarios loyalists, Turkish Cypriots, and Greek Cypriot Communists after EOKA-B carried out a coup to facilitate the annexation of Cyprus by the military junta in Athens; Turkey's NATO membership had no relationship to the operation itself. However, Turkey did face a years-long arms embargo by the US afterwards because of using US military aid that had been intended for NATO operations; this forced Turkey to create a new, 4th Army, which is not under NATO command and does not use NATO aid and funds.
  20. Like
    Machor reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Lyman to Slovyansk is a death march.
    Even the terrain from Khrestyshcho to Slovyansk is a wide, bare slope completely vulnerable to long range fires from S/SE of Slovyansk. Just take a gander at this rough panorama:

    From google maps, here:
    Anyone coming over that horizon is visible from ~5 km (at this spot, above pictured):

    to ~10km at this spot:


    Enjoy that long descent into hell, ****ers.
  21. Like
    Machor reacted to LukeFF in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apologies if it's already been posted here (haven't had the chance to read all the new posts yet), but this a very good analysis about what happened to the Moskva. Basically, it came down to gross negligence and nothing to do with the drone distracting the ship's crew:
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/analysis-chain-of-negligence-caused-the-loss-of-the-moskva-cruiser/
     
  22. Like
    Machor reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I was considering the same thing, what to do with the missing people taken from Ukraine to Russia. In that sense, I find it perfectly acceptable to trade if that's what it takes to recover those kidnapped to Russia.
    I hope this includes Crimean Tatars, poor souls. God willing they can regain their homeland in Crimea.
  23. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I suppose, CMBS Stugna-P was modelled as its export version Skif. The difference is UKR ATGM hasn't laser range finder in own guidance module, when Skif has it.
    No one Russian tank, except T-90A has laser beam detectors. And there are many discussions about will this detector react on weak and short LRF pulse or not. 
    Stugna-P has two modes of work - semi-automatic and manual.
    If manual mode using, this ATGM fires as usual ATGM, missile flies by direct line, operator controlls it by joystik on remote module. It can initilaly keep the mark some aside of target to avoid LWR reaction and move it on the target before a strike. 
    Semi-automatic mode requires thermal sight. Some of Stugna-P since 2019 were equipped with such thermals Eye LR S of Turkish "Aselsan" or SLX HAWK of Itlalian-British "Selex Leonardo". Thermal sight can detect  a range to the target (and then you can see the range on the display), transmit it to guidance module for calculations and then, guidance system launches the missile by over-target trajectory, automatically moving the beam on the target in last second before impact, so LWR will have no time to activate smoke. 
    So, really CMBS behavior of Stugna-P and reaction of tanks on it must be fixed, because it hasn't LRF and it riding beam doesn't touch the target before hit.   
  24. Like
    Machor reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Jomini would be proud, this is very much in his "let's take geometry to war" type of thinking.  It is also one of the reasons Clausewtiz did his thing as a counter-reaction.
    So frontage is a pretty complex beast.  It is, in land warfare, what you can physically control and influence at the front edge of ones land (and air) power.  Note I say "physically" because once you introduce multi-domain concepts we get into cognitive and conative frameworks which transcend inches and feet. 
    So how that land power is packaged is incredibly important when discussing frontage.  For example, the RA is using what I have called "dim mass", this means they are relying on masses of people and equipment to try and generate and project that land power (and air, but that is different).  They do this to "hold ground", which is, as you point out, really a 3 dimensional construct on the battlefield.  This will drive them to have to have a force-to-space metric of effective density in order to defend, and another to attack.  This is again really complicated as we get into C2 and logistics architecture, as well as Ukraine's road infrastructure but the terrain basically soaks up so many troops based on how those troops are trained, equipped, commanded and supplied/supported. 
    For Russia that metric of troops-to-space is going to be higher, likely much higher than the UA.  They have not demonstrated wide spread effective integrated ISR, their logistics are a mess and air power is really disjointed.  They do have a lot of artillery though [aside: this is where the term "force multiplier" comes from] but can they integrate it?  So what? The UA has: a lot of ISR advantage due to their overall approach and western feeds, a much more distributed logistics infra, intimated knowledge of the terrain, much better equipment and training and far better force integration.
    So, so what?  Well the RA is in a asymmetric frontage control situation, they need more troops to try and influence a chunk of physical space than the UA.  So the last thing the RA should be doing is attempting massively long frontages, it is a bad "combat power" economy.  They will need to pour more and more troops in just to try and make that line controllable, while Ukrainian defence becomes offense and can attack all the holes in the Russian line to isolate and chew up the defence piecemeal.  What is clearly missing in Russian planning is that their metrics are broken and have been since day 1.  They thought that X-thousands of troops/equipment could do A, when it turns out it could only do Z.
    As to my "work", oddly, land warfare is more of a side gig and vestige of a misspent youth.  I work in "other spaces" now but this war has forced me to dust off the old land war shelves and work some dormant muscles. 
  25. Like
    Machor reacted to photon in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Grognard escalation:
    When revolutionary changes happen, we look for ways to obscure them. This is, I think, an example.
    The difference between ships at anchor and ships on the move *seemed significant* to contemporary military theorists in the same way that it's tempting now to say, "well, the Russians are bad at mechanized warfare". That's a factor that *obscures* a revolutionary change in tactics and operations. It turns out that whether capital ships are at anchor or not, they are terribly vulnerable to the combination of dive and torpedo bombers and to hammer and anvil tactics.
    Everything materially needed for attacks of the sort the Repulse and Prince of Wales suffered was in place in 1940 for every major power. The British had the Beaufort and Swordfish, the Americans the Catalina and Devastator, the Germans the Ju-88 and Ju-87, the Japanese the G3M and Kate and Val. And most of those were products of the mid 1930s, so we can see that navies are contemplating and wargaming the sort of operation that sunk the Repulse and PoW for at least half a decade before it happened. In contrast to what that book argues, *most* major powers (maybe not the Italians and Soviets) could execute an operation like the sinking of the Repulse. The Germans rendered HMS Illustrious combat ineffective with similar aerial tactics about a year *before* the sinking of the Repulse despite the Illustrious having CAP overhead.
    What the book you cite is pointing to is a difference in quantity, not quality. That is, between late 1940 and early 1942 we moved from *some* land based aerodromes projecting no-go zones for enemy shipping to essentially *all* land based aerodromes projecting that same no-go zone (and the no-go zones growing larger as the tactics and weapons employed by land based bombers caught up to their range). A British or American admiral proposing an operation involving major capital ships without air support in late 1943 would be laughed out of the room. When the Japanese actually undertook such operations, they were (without exception) suicidal.
    To bring home the comparison to what we're seeing now, we're in that transitional period where it probably is suicidal to engage in mechanized operations without a snow-globe like anti-ISR bubble surrounding your force. No one has *developed* that snow-globe-like anti-ISR bubble yet, so we're in an interim period like the period between, say Coral Sea and Philippine Sea. At least one side in the conflict can project power in this new way (maybe both? we haven't seen Ukraine present mass to be targeted yet). Neither side (I don't think) has developed a plausible defense against the new way of projecting combat power. The USN eventually came up with one; the combination of excellent radar, picket destroyers, CAP, and the CIC. I think some of the discussion here is about what that looks like on land.
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