CHEqTRO

Turkey does not border Russia. On the other hand, Russia unilateraly scrapped the INF treaty and positioned Nuclear weapon in Kaliningrad capabale of striking within minutes all of Europe, and in the border or a NATO country. If the russian want security guaranties, lets talk also some for us Europeans 🙄

I didn't know there were US nuclear weapons in the Ukraine. US never objected to conventional weapons from the Soviet Union in Cuba. 

It is a BS reason because we would already have the capability to strike Moscow within 5 minutes, following the logic from Putin, from the Baltic states. I dont know why we should take Kremlin declarations at face value, when they were saying that they were not going to invade Ukraine, neither recognize the republics until like 5 days ago, along other series of lies. Putin and Lavrov are talking now of ""liberating"" Ukraine from its Nazi leadership, not about whatever BS "security guaranties" they wanted. So dont worry, you dont discomfort us, it would be just plain stupidity/ignorance to believe that that is the reason, and It has nothing to do with "emotions".

It is a BS reason because we would already have the capability to strike Moscow within 5 minutes, following the logic from Putin, from the Baltic states. I dont know why we should take Kremlin declarations at face value, when they were saying that they were not going to invade Ukraine, neither recognize the republics until like 5 days ago, along other series of lies. Putin and Lavrov are talking now of ""liberating"" Ukraine from its Nazi leadership, not about whatever BS "security guaranties" they wanted. So dont worry, you dont discomfort us, it would be just plain stupidity/ignorance to believe that that is the reason, and It has nothing to do with "emotions".

I'm ok. I just too tired about all these news monitoring, so I havn't enough energy to write here. Today I tried to depart my wife from the city to her parents in more calm Cherkasy oblast, but we can't reach to railway station. Municipal transport stopped on the left bank of Kyiv, though on the right it works like and subway. 
All day from my balcony, wich exits to Obolon' and Vyshhorod periodically heard a sounds of shellings. Now I heard outcoming shots of our 2S7 Pion guns, located in 5 km from my house close to city limit. They fire somewhere to the west, where Russian troops concentrates to attack on the city. All day there were periodycal clashes on the line Irpin'-Bucha-Vorzel-Hostomel. There was attempt of Russian tank attack from Chernobyl zone through Ivankiv on Kyiv, but because of we had a time to demolish the bridges through the Teterev river, they halted. 

NATO rapid force being deployed to Eastern front !! To bolster the defenses (of existing NATO Allies) and offer support to Ukraine . This is CMBS - almost prophetic

Two comercial vessels hit by the Russian army in addition to the turkish one yesterday. These ones seems Romanian/Moldavan
Edit:
An image of the soldiers who resisted russian attacks by themselves against all odds on Snake Island and gave their lives for it. A salute to these heroes.

Also people are talking as if Ukraine has already lost becasue there are Russians troops at Kyiv suburbs. Kyiv was always going to be reached by Russian forces with relative ease due to its position geograhically. Now they have to take it. Lets wait and see how the battle develops. It looks grim but is too early to say that all is lost.

Anschluss...

Tank battles north of Chernigov ( The tweet says is north of Kiev, but it is actually  +130 Km away from it).
Supposedly the counter attack to retake the airfield is about to begin, hopefully they are able to retake it before those IL-76 arrive.

Tank battles north of Chernigov ( The tweet says is north of Kiev, but it is actually  +130 Km away from it).
Supposedly the counter attack to retake the airfield is about to begin, hopefully they are able to retake it before those IL-76 arrive.

I am ashamed of my government. 

That it is actually a MIG-29, look at the wings and tail; most likely Ukranian. It seems that it actually fires two Anti-Air missiles, with one of them tracking the ground, unfortunetly. You can see the plane trailing smoke, it seems it was damaged and decided to launch its ordenance to reduce weight and avoid crashing

Yeah, looking at all the information is coming out, It seems that either tonight or tomorrow the Russians will start the invasion.
I wish you and your people the best and good luck. I wish our western leaders had been more decisive in order to stop the conflict or at least had helped more the Ukranian military. Europe will pay dearly for allowing this disaster.
Godspeed.
Слава Україні! Героям слава!

Yeah, looking at all the information is coming out, It seems that either tonight or tomorrow the Russians will start the invasion.
I wish you and your people the best and good luck. I wish our western leaders had been more decisive in order to stop the conflict or at least had helped more the Ukranian military. Europe will pay dearly for allowing this disaster.
Godspeed.
Слава Україні! Героям слава!

Yeah, looking at all the information is coming out, It seems that either tonight or tomorrow the Russians will start the invasion.
I wish you and your people the best and good luck. I wish our western leaders had been more decisive in order to stop the conflict or at least had helped more the Ukranian military. Europe will pay dearly for allowing this disaster.
Godspeed.
Слава Україні! Героям слава!

That would depend in which borders end up recognizing both republics. In their current ones, or in the ones they claim? There has been a lot of discussion about this, and for now Russian officials have been a bit ambiguous about it: 
However, the leaders of the republics claim that they have been recognized in their claimed borders:
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496110612862095366
Of course, claiming the totally of the Oblasts would mean either that the Ukranians must withdraw totally from the territory they control (That is not going to happen), or well, direct confrontation.
Also considering that, from a strategic point of view, if the situations ends as it is, it would have been a gigantic blunder for the russians. As of right now, they have just made official a situation that was already de facto the same. Ukraine is forever going to be outside there sphere of influence, the EU and NATO gets out of this stronger and generally more united, and its economy its going to take a hit due to sanctions for no gain. Due to this, I doubt that this is the endgame of all this. Getting the rest of the territory claimed by the republics will not really change this, by the way, except maybe in the sense that it would desastibilize the Ukranian goverment. Maybe that is the plan, to hope for a collapse of the government? I find it dubious, honestly, specially with western assistance.
Unfortunetly, due to this, I think that the most likely course of action for the Russians now is to start hostilities at full scale with the intention of securing the government of Ukraine. ( Well, if you watched the Putin adrees yesterday, if they decided to annex it downright I would not be surpirsed). Russian media is already claiming that Grads are being used against Donestk: https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496107298158219267 , so yeah, the most probable conclussion to this is that somewhere between today and the next days some false flag incident happens and the green light for an invasion is given.
At least that is how I see the situation. We will see.
 

He, it has nothing to do about wether its worth to fight or not for that strip of land or wether we feel safely saying that they should. Our opinions in this are irrelevant. Which is not irrelavant, in the other hand, is that a pullback of forces would be extrimely destabilizing to the state. Not just the possibility of a coup against Zelensky in result to that, you also have to account the fact that there is a big part of the population that is pro-ukranian, that would have to abandon their homes and esentially turn into IDPs. How are the Ukranians going to organize such an  evacuation? Just add to that, that it would esenteally mean a de facto recognitions of the republics and their constitutions, and in turn, damage Ukranian constitution and its sovereignety. It would be essentially be national suicide.
But not only that, the thing is that the russians are still be deployed along the Ukranian border. Even after all the trouble of leaving those areas, risking internal desestabilization, the russians could just invade anyway, with the big difference that its enemy has just humilliated itself, it has abandoned good defensive positions (althought being fair in the ocurrence of a full scale war, they would be somewhat irrelevant there in the Donbass, as the main thrusts of the russian army would be directed toward other areas), and esentially made itself weaker internally. If anything, due to the destabilization caused by this decision, the possibilities of a russian invasion would increase, as the cost of such invasion would be drastically lower.

That would be too simple and inappropriate for Russia just to recognize these "republics" in existing limits. This would give Ukraine the opportunity just drop the ballast and hope for collapse of Russia in far future. But the goal of Putin was clearly pointed in his yesterday's address to nation. About recognition of LDNR he spoke less than 5 minutes at the end. All other time it was crazy manipulative and conspiracy flow about Ukrainin history with resume - Ukraine is artifical composition hostile to Russia, Ukraine is a threaten for Russia, Ukraine hasn't a right to exist like a state. His addres obviously was recorded for large-scale invasion explaination, but he decided to swallow own victim gradually like a boa. And he will start from Donbas, making formal case - recognition of LDNR in the limits of administrative boudaries. 
So, will be no fly zone, and the Eagles will not come. The West even can't decide what this was - invasion or incursion, either now time for "killing sanctions" or  need to wait, until Kyiv will be hummered by Russian missiles. Looks like we will fight one by one with hordes of Ivans. 
 

In my opinion, Putin did not need to recognise the republics in order to start a small scale operation in hopes of a landgrab in Kherson. If anything this situation has made it more difficult. The water problem, althought it still exist, have aliviated considerably since last year, is still a problem of course, but not as urgent as before.
There is of course cost to any war, but there are also costs for inaction. Both from an economic and a military point of view. In case of the later, the Ukranian army, even if completely shunned out of NATO, will still improve its capabilities (I mean, if anything they will probably put more money into weapon procurament if they do not get into NATO). Right now the Ukranian army has no deep strike capabilities, neither high quantities of anti-ship weaponry, neither modern anti-air systems; just to name a few examples. That will change in the following years, making the prospect of military intervention, AKA, the only leverage that Russia has over Ukraine, apart from the twins republics, which are mantained thanks to that hard power themselves (and well, it has just lost due to the recognitions); more costly. If the assumption in the Kremlin is that Ukraine its going to be a long term enemy of Russia, without counting wether they finally enter NATO or not, it might be decided that it would be better for them to start an invasion now than in the nearby future. A simple land grab would not change this reality, by the way.
Thats just from a military point of view, there are also economical and long term strategic reasons in relation to positioning towards NATO and China that might push Russia into this direction. Like I said before, we shall see.
 
 

That would depend in which borders end up recognizing both republics. In their current ones, or in the ones they claim? There has been a lot of discussion about this, and for now Russian officials have been a bit ambiguous about it: 
However, the leaders of the republics claim that they have been recognized in their claimed borders:
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496110612862095366
Of course, claiming the totally of the Oblasts would mean either that the Ukranians must withdraw totally from the territory they control (That is not going to happen), or well, direct confrontation.
Also considering that, from a strategic point of view, if the situations ends as it is, it would have been a gigantic blunder for the russians. As of right now, they have just made official a situation that was already de facto the same. Ukraine is forever going to be outside there sphere of influence, the EU and NATO gets out of this stronger and generally more united, and its economy its going to take a hit due to sanctions for no gain. Due to this, I doubt that this is the endgame of all this. Getting the rest of the territory claimed by the republics will not really change this, by the way, except maybe in the sense that it would desastibilize the Ukranian goverment. Maybe that is the plan, to hope for a collapse of the government? I find it dubious, honestly, specially with western assistance.
Unfortunetly, due to this, I think that the most likely course of action for the Russians now is to start hostilities at full scale with the intention of securing the government of Ukraine. ( Well, if you watched the Putin adrees yesterday, if they decided to annex it downright I would not be surpirsed). Russian media is already claiming that Grads are being used against Donestk: https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496107298158219267 , so yeah, the most probable conclussion to this is that somewhere between today and the next days some false flag incident happens and the green light for an invasion is given.
At least that is how I see the situation. We will see.
 

Meh, dont know what to say, it definitively seems to be as entertaining as keep hammering the idea in the echo chamber that you guys have built, that Ukranians are just a collective brainwashed genocidal nation, and that oh poor old Russia is just constantly being martirized by the evil west, and has never done anything wrong, the poor thing. Not as nice as that sense of superiority that has to give to think that everyone who disagrees with you in the west must be because it is a brainwashed shill, thats for sure. Honestly, how envious, who could get to live in such a deluded world, it defenitively seems nice. Maybe I should watch some RT and Sputnik for some time, who knows, it might help a bit.  

Okay this is just clownish at this point.
I can also put images of Russian soldiers in the Donbass wearing Swastikas and other far right wing stuff  (Example: https://twitter.com/jpereztriana/status/1485703957263667209). And of course I can search for more, not only of Donbass soldiers, but also of United Russia MPs, Orthodox clerics and whatever.
I aswell have images of Ukranian civilians being hit by Russian fire during the hot phase of the war (Not going to, but you should know how easily is to find them, if you want to). Thats the thing with war, that people die. Or do you think that in case of Russian "intervention" to ""save"" the """""free"""" people of the Donbass from """"""""""Genocide""""""""", there would not be Ukranian civilian casualties?
Also, I have been keeping up with declarations from some Russian United Party officials and some are quite delightful. I remember one of some bearded dude claiming that they need to cleanse western Ukranians, among other things. And lets not forget Putin quote, that Ukraine, its beauty; is going to be raped.
The whole argument that the Ukranian goverment is in its way to genocide half of its population its so ****ing laughable that it hurts. If anything, russian speaking people in Ukraine have more political liberties in ****ing Ukraine than in ****ing Russia (Good luck getting anyone else apart from the supreme leader, and oh please for the love of god, do not bring the law to make Ukranian the main languaje of the state as genocide. You will have to explain me then why its not genocide to have the russian language  as the official one in regions as Kalmykia, Karelia, Daguestan, Komi, Yakutia etc...). Holy **** you also claimed that the shut down of television close to the Kremlin was a sign of Ukranian fascistic behaviour, as if Ukranians should accept to have its agressors having a voice in its ****ing country. I mean, you literally wrote that they were accomodating the country in case Putin cames to power in Ukraine XDDDD. Why in God´s Earth any nation should accept that. Also rich that the russians in general talk about genocide considering what its hapening to the tartars in Crimea.
But you know what, the thing is that at the end of the ****ing day, this is all just ****ing stupid whatabouthism. What doesnt change, is still the fact that one nation is actively trying to undermine the sovereignity of another one, has actually occupied territory of said nation, against all international law; and is threathening with further military action, as well as creating a gigantic future loophole for nuclear proliferation (Budapest memorandum, does ring a bell?). Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, has all the right to decide its allies and economic partners, and there is no moral neither legal justification for Russia to alter this decision. That its the main issue behind this crisis, and what this thread is about. So yeah, stop muddling and derailing the discussion with ****ing propaganda, half-thruts and ****ing whatabouthism, because at this point its close to just a pathetic echo chamber.
 
 
 PS: Also, the thing with democracies, is that people have the freedom to say or manifest whatever they like. Story time: Here in Spain some months ago some weirdos of the Falange party wnet and took the main street of Madrid to talk about the threat of the "Jews" and all that stupidity. There was a gigantic backlash in the media and wathever. At the end they were like 500 randoms at best which hardly represented even a fraction of our society, but they there were, the spotlight of our media for like a week, parroting their ****ty ideas in one of the main streets of our capital. There are also still a lot of people who venerate Franco, and he still has some cultural places dedicated to his image and regime. Despite all of this, I think that consider my nation as an authoritarian genocidal fascistic hellhole would be quite unreasonable, in any circles away from ignorants and ideologues, of course). I do also wonder. Considering what you are all saying, does the people of Spain deserve destruction and subjugation to a foreign power? Do I, and my family deserve that? If you find that prepostorous, as you ****ing should, then you should start looking back into your argument, because esentially you are claiming that Ukranians do, under a very similar situation)
 
 

Okay this is just clownish at this point.
I can also put images of Russian soldiers in the Donbass wearing Swastikas and other far right wing stuff  (Example: https://twitter.com/jpereztriana/status/1485703957263667209). And of course I can search for more, not only of Donbass soldiers, but also of United Russia MPs, Orthodox clerics and whatever.
I aswell have images of Ukranian civilians being hit by Russian fire during the hot phase of the war (Not going to, but you should know how easily is to find them, if you want to). Thats the thing with war, that people die. Or do you think that in case of Russian "intervention" to ""save"" the """""free"""" people of the Donbass from """"""""""Genocide""""""""", there would not be Ukranian civilian casualties?
Also, I have been keeping up with declarations from some Russian United Party officials and some are quite delightful. I remember one of some bearded dude claiming that they need to cleanse western Ukranians, among other things. And lets not forget Putin quote, that Ukraine, its beauty; is going to be raped.
The whole argument that the Ukranian goverment is in its way to genocide half of its population its so ****ing laughable that it hurts. If anything, russian speaking people in Ukraine have more political liberties in ****ing Ukraine than in ****ing Russia (Good luck getting anyone else apart from the supreme leader, and oh please for the love of god, do not bring the law to make Ukranian the main languaje of the state as genocide. You will have to explain me then why its not genocide to have the russian language  as the official one in regions as Kalmykia, Karelia, Daguestan, Komi, Yakutia etc...). Holy **** you also claimed that the shut down of television close to the Kremlin was a sign of Ukranian fascistic behaviour, as if Ukranians should accept to have its agressors having a voice in its ****ing country. I mean, you literally wrote that they were accomodating the country in case Putin cames to power in Ukraine XDDDD. Why in God´s Earth any nation should accept that. Also rich that the russians in general talk about genocide considering what its hapening to the tartars in Crimea.
But you know what, the thing is that at the end of the ****ing day, this is all just ****ing stupid whatabouthism. What doesnt change, is still the fact that one nation is actively trying to undermine the sovereignity of another one, has actually occupied territory of said nation, against all international law; and is threathening with further military action, as well as creating a gigantic future loophole for nuclear proliferation (Budapest memorandum, does ring a bell?). Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, has all the right to decide its allies and economic partners, and there is no moral neither legal justification for Russia to alter this decision. That its the main issue behind this crisis, and what this thread is about. So yeah, stop muddling and derailing the discussion with ****ing propaganda, half-thruts and ****ing whatabouthism, because at this point its close to just a pathetic echo chamber.
 
 
 PS: Also, the thing with democracies, is that people have the freedom to say or manifest whatever they like. Story time: Here in Spain some months ago some weirdos of the Falange party wnet and took the main street of Madrid to talk about the threat of the "Jews" and all that stupidity. There was a gigantic backlash in the media and wathever. At the end they were like 500 randoms at best which hardly represented even a fraction of our society, but they there were, the spotlight of our media for like a week, parroting their ****ty ideas in one of the main streets of our capital. There are also still a lot of people who venerate Franco, and he still has some cultural places dedicated to his image and regime. Despite all of this, I think that consider my nation as an authoritarian genocidal fascistic hellhole would be quite unreasonable, in any circles away from ignorants and ideologues, of course). I do also wonder. Considering what you are all saying, does the people of Spain deserve destruction and subjugation to a foreign power? Do I, and my family deserve that? If you find that prepostorous, as you ****ing should, then you should start looking back into your argument, because esentially you are claiming that Ukranians do, under a very similar situation)
 
 

Fair. It just sums up as to stop parroting bull**** propaganda and derailing the conversation, really.