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The_MonkeyKing

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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://apnews.com/article/switzerland-military-exports-russia-ukraine-war-71e2ff66bcb90be0315517b23c82afb4
    At least here seems to be a case of slow gradualism:
    "The measure is now expected to go to the broader parliament next month, although Salzmann said any changes would not take effect before March 2024 at the earliest.
    The commission approved two separate motions that, if approved, would allow the executive branch to lift some restrictions on the export of weaponry and war materiel “in exceptional circumstances” and if required to ensure national security.
    Another motion said the law on the export of war materiel could also be adapted to allow deliveries to countries “that are committed to our values” and have similar export controls to Switzerland, a text provided by the commission said.
    Buyer countries could re-export Swiss-made weapons after five years within certain parameters. Re-export to countries that “severely” violate human rights would be banned, and the risk that the weapons could be used against civilians would have to be averted."
     
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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I previously thought the Crimea Bridge is an unlikely target to be hit with Storm Shadow (because of the quantities required to overwhelm the AD). ADM-160 might make that equation different...

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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Fenris in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Chibot Mk IX in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I previously thought the Crimea Bridge is an unlikely target to be hit with Storm Shadow (because of the quantities required to overwhelm the AD). ADM-160 might make that equation different...

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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The (military)port was leased to Russia until Russia terminated the agreement for full annexation. "Kharkiv Pact"
    So the argument could be made but I would disagree with it.
  14. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I previously thought the Crimea Bridge is an unlikely target to be hit with Storm Shadow (because of the quantities required to overwhelm the AD). ADM-160 might make that equation different...

  15. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sevastopol is fair game. Ukrainian territory is being defined by the 1991 borders. So strikes into Crimea are not considered cross border strikes.
  16. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes. That and their logistics hub in Melitopol. I guess we are right now in the beginning phase of the ouverture to something bigger.

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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I previously thought the Crimea Bridge is an unlikely target to be hit with Storm Shadow (because of the quantities required to overwhelm the AD). ADM-160 might make that equation different...

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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from riptides in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I previously thought the Crimea Bridge is an unlikely target to be hit with Storm Shadow (because of the quantities required to overwhelm the AD). ADM-160 might make that equation different...

  19. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah, you and @Kinophile are probably right, thinking of this again it makes the most sense. I hate to see them being used at targets that close to the frontline though, shame there aren't GLSDB or similar low cost solutions available for that. 
  20. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Here's TheDrive article about it, probably as good an analysis as we can get at this time:
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-storm-shadow-missiles-are-a-big-problem-for-russia
  21. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's hard to render airfields inoperable - all you need is a long flattish spot, and to do that all you need is a bulldozer or a bunch of conscripts with shovels and rakes.  For all the things the RA does wrong, one thing they've historically done well is make aircraft that aren't very picky about runway quality.
    If you're bombing an airfield, you need to either hit the aircraft directly (or indirectly, as we saw in the airfield bombing that took a while to decide what actually happened on the ground), or hit the infrastructure that makes it more valuable than a bare flat spot: fuel storage tanks, fuel trucks, ammo dumps.  
    IIRC, in the Syrian cruise missile attack, they were mostly targeting aircraft directly through hangar roofs or doors.  
  22. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I do wonder what these systems can achieve. Supply for Ukraine might be a couple hundred to start with and another couple hundred per year in the future.
    In the past, we have seen around a hundred cruise missiles strike an airfield and fail to achieve the desired impact. (Syria)
    I would be interested in seeing a relevant expert's analysis of these systems potential in Ukraine. 
  23. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thanks for info. So they can theoretically cut the traffic along the bridge, at least civilian one.
    Curious if they will be urged to modify them to their taste:
    😎
  24. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    very interesting video including but not limited to the "rock paper scissors" nature of different offensive and defensive approaches:
    Julian Spencer-Churchill (PhD Columbia 2001) is an associate professor in political science at Concordia University, Montreal. 
      "truth table" of attack/defense strategies:

     
  25. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    unexpeted
    EDIT: suspected photos have been taken with the training vehicles. So not for ukraine necessarily 
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